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***MARCH 2010 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***
ProofCollection
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New Month, New Thread.
A flat day for gold, I expected a bit more upside. The USD was "scheduled" for a high today and I think we saw that. I think the next few days will see the USD lower. I think a move in gold to 1128-1130 is a lock over the next couple of days. This will be the 3rd or 4th attempt at this level. I plan to sell at 1128 and pick up again on a small pullback to the high 1110's.
I think SP500 is looking good and is ready for small rally to 1135 or so, this will probably pull gold up with it on the coming dollar weakness.
A flat day for gold, I expected a bit more upside. The USD was "scheduled" for a high today and I think we saw that. I think the next few days will see the USD lower. I think a move in gold to 1128-1130 is a lock over the next couple of days. This will be the 3rd or 4th attempt at this level. I plan to sell at 1128 and pick up again on a small pullback to the high 1110's.
I think SP500 is looking good and is ready for small rally to 1135 or so, this will probably pull gold up with it on the coming dollar weakness.
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Copper got a good bounce today from the potential of Chilean miner outputs being reduced due to the recent quake. Quite a few of the commodities are close to surpassing their short term peaks of last week which only add creedence to this being a 3rd leg up. Liquidity indicators still showing money flowing into the markets (GSR and currency pairs).
When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes... Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain."........Napoleon Bonaparte, 1815
roadrunner
The break through 1128-1130 was impressive and showed some strength. It may have been a mistake for me to sell at 1129.5, but I think I may get a chance to reload at that level tonight on a small pullback. So yes, today I did close my gold position opened at 1094 at 1129.5 for a $35.5 gain. I think this current move is good for at least 1145, probably a quick overshoot, but I still don't expect gold to really take off quite yet... probably the establishment of a new range. I think we've seen the last of sub-1100 gold for at least a few years. I can see some tests down to 1020 and maybe slightly lower before the big launch, but right now is a great time to load up for the long haul.
The USD also looks like it's in for at least a few days or more of weakness which will support gold over the next few days. Mining stocks are doing well too.
Rick Ackerman thinks gold has turned bullish as well.
This was the 8th month in a row where gold had an uptrend in progress during the start of the month. Only October 1st was a down day but that trend was still decidedly upwards. Yesterday's move took out another gap in GLD (ie $1130-$1135). That leaves only the high and low breakdown/breakout gaps still in play ($1195-$1200 and $1020-$1025). Note that there is also another one lower at around $960 which represented the original breakout from the consolidation triangle apex. Gold seems to be somewhat efficient at going back and cleaning up these gaps even if GLD doesn't trade 24 hrs a day. There were numerous gaps formed over the past 5 months and all but the high and low have been cleaned out.
I've been following Jeff Kern's SKI analysis fairly closely the past month for a major turning point. Of which one nearly occured a few weeks ago. His system is rather conservative so once a major trend is identified it may already be weeks underway. But this also minimizes the number of false starts/losses as well. In a week or so his system will have the "opportunity" to line up "triple" buys on his USERX 16-20, 35-39, and 92-96 back price indexing method. With the 92-96 index "on path" this would be the first time since the bear market bottom in gold stocks (12/2/02) where such a thing occurred. And this would be the 1st time since the 2005-May 2006 bull run where the 92-96 index is in a buy signal. According to Kern that was the last time gold stocks were truly in a bull market. In about 10 trading days we'll know whether the USERX mutual fund reaches the 16.25 or so level where this rare triple buy would occur. That's about 5% above its current level....equates to a GDX level of approx 51 (10% above current level). Even if such a triple buy signal occurs, Kern notes it doesn't guarantee a bull run, just that the odds would clearly favor it.
roadrunner
I have been surprised at the recent strength. Gold is being pushed and pulled by larger markets. Because of that any isolated analysis of the one market, can be swamped by moves caused by the much larger currency or bond markets.
The action for Thurs (maybe Fri) is probably going to take gold to 1157-1163. Looks like there's strong support for tonight at 1136.2, we have a support pivot at 1133.2. Resistance at 1139.4 and 1146.1, 1152.3, and 1165.
I'm back in with a 60% position at 1136.0 with plans to do a temporary sell in the mid 1150's.
Gold is looking good until at least next Monday.
FXC
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Liquidity monitors such as silver to gold ratio, Euro/Yen and New Zealand Dollar/Yen currency pairs all been heading up rather quickly. Help is being given by a lowering $VIX, rising $BKX, screaming Baltic Dry Index (up 23% since 2/15), rising China and US stock markets, rising HUI/Gold ratio, and gold rising against all major currencies over the past couple of weeks....with all time highs against the British Pound and Euro. At least for now the picture is decent. Gold feels like it wants to want to tackle a nice B leg retrace up towards the $1160-$1200 area. Zeal had a good article today on gold strength vs. foreign currencies and how gold will likely explode once it hits 1000 euro/oz. It will be much the same effect as when gold finally blew through $1000/oz. It's just not about the gold vs. dollar when other people around the world are stacking gold.
COT report over the past 2 weeks shows the commercials piling on gold shorts once again (+23,000) with ratio now up to 3.47 since the bottom at 2.92 on 2/12. On the silver side they sold off about an equally large pile of shorts and longs (-9K open interest) probably because they made good money on each maneuver. Gives silver some more room to run. The massive 8.49 dollar commercial short to long ratio is still in play. Eventually these guys are going to be right...big time.
Bond week next week. I don't think it will hurt gold this time around with gold futures expiring 2 weeks later. The FED meets on the 16th. So things are a bit better spaced in March avoiding the double or triple slams.
roadruner
Six month Kitco gold chart:
It's been a while since I analyzed the GSR. Back in early Feb it peaked out at around 71. That appeared to be a 3 leg correction or up move from Oct-Feb (58 to 71). That has retraced about 38% of the total fall from 91 to 58 as well as 38% of the time (1 yr vs. 4 months). It's looking like GSR has entered into a new intermediate term down trend that could last months....so far it's one month along. It's due for a short term pull back after about 4 weeks of heading down. But if this continues to follow the similar drop that occurred from March 2009 those pull backs will last at most a week.
roadrunner
I sitll think this is a good time to load up as I don't expect much more weakness and I don't see gold dropping below 1100, so you're pretty much buying at the bottom...
The best play is probably to wait for confirmation that the bull is back on track which would involve solid movement back over 1130 and then 1150. I could foresee a possible and very quick drop to 1050 or so just to scare away the bulls before the next big move, as gold seems to like to do.
Overall I'm still expecting weakness through the middle of next week, but I don't think you can go too wrong loading up at 1109 or so. I wouldn't be surprised to see gold back up in the 1120's on Thursday.
...We are also going to raise our (subscription) prices significantly very soon. If you wanted to come in at present prices, now is the time…
Deflation everywhere, except on things you buy.
roadrunner
Some timing models are looking to Wednesday for a big move in prices, otherwise price action should be muted until then.
I'm still expecting the "real move" to start at the end of the month... April 1 or so, so there's two scenarios I'm expecting to play out over the next week... either a) gold will crash on Wed, re-testing previous lows around 1050-1060 or even venturing lower (200dma currently around 1041), and then meander around until Apr 1 or b) gold will begin the next move up with a move into the upper 1100's and perhaps the all time high where it will stall or hang out until Apr 1.
Nice gap fill in process. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Some nice GDX, SPY, Oil, Dollar charts
The weekly volume changes on GDX and Oil over the past 2 years are particulary impressive (GDX trending up and Oil trending down). The author feels another big liquidity bump to hit all markets is just around the corner. This is similar to what propelled the S&P from 2006 to Oct. 2007. But first a breather from this up leg that began way back on Feb 8th. This coincides with ProofCollection's view of markets taking off at beginning of April/end of March. There is more than one way to get liquidity into markets other than looking at M2,M3. The bankers figured out over 10 years ago that derivatives were a convenient way to bypass money supply restrictions.
Stewart Thomson bullish as well...and in typically edgy form
roadrunner
Decided to look at Gold/Silver ratio closely for the first time in a week. A couple of interesting points to be noted. After that long swing down from 71 to 65 over the past few weeks it seemed ripe for a sharp V-correction. But so far no dice. Just a dead-straight sideways leg so far. There have been 2 one-day attempts to break back above the 50 dma but each failed and fell right back to the 200 dma line which is at the 64-65 resistance area that has been formed over the past 5 months. GSR doesn't seem intent on making a sharp move back upwards any time soon. The currency pairs seem to support a jagged but continuing injection of liquidity. Copper and other base metals are hanging at fairly elevated levels as is awaiting the signal to start another leg up. Gas and oil producers seem ready for a turn as well.
A bullish sign in the miners is that are quite a few in each category (senior, junior, intermediate) that just refuse to take a dive during this downturn. Each time they get hit they bounce back. That's an encouraging sign considering in nearly every other previous hit every senior and most intermediates have tanked. While gold is taking some hits, the miners are being somewhat buffered by the rise in the SM.
roadrunner
I am still looking for Mar 31/April 1 to be the launch of the resumption of the parabolic move up, although with the Easter holiday it could throw off the timing a day or two. It is looking good as gold in all time frames is looking energized and ready to move toward the end of next week.
The recent moves under $1100 are slightly concerning, but so far each move under $1100 has been rebuffed pretty strongly, so I don't think there is anything to worry about short term.
Stocks are looking good. SP500 will probably be strong for the next couple of months and that will help stocks. Can't ignore the USD - it's looking strong as well... but as I've mentioned before, I think the next phase for gold could very well have the USD moving up at the same time as gold.
It's funny how the financial media always tries to justify or explain market movements, but I think the non-movement yesterday after health care passed shows that the markets pretty much do what they want... I've never put much stock in any of the explanations or reasons put out for a particular move.
Fwiw gold has started every month since August with an up trend. So next week should start that trend once again.
roadrunner
Copper finally coming down but it's still close to or slightly above the point where Cohodk mentioned last month he was going short. Maybe his trade is about to go positive.
Interesting article on a new Chinese ETF where China can now buy American stocks.
The 5 year note auction today was disappointing. And while there's not enough evidence yet to make any predictions, this is how it starts... Just wait until interest rates rise and the USD carry trade unwinds and pops the US treasury bubble.
Also saw this excerpt in a newsletter I get:
In December and January, the Chinese shed $40 billion of their US debt holdings. I’ve written before how this is grim news for the dollar. Chinese purchases of our debt were the last real life-support the greenback had. Now the Chinese have pulled the plug. Unsurprisingly, nobody else is stepping forward to replace them. Net foreign purchases of US debt were a mere $36.1 billion in January, down from $82.2 billion in December and $128.9 billion in November. If January’s low rate continues, net purchases in 2010 will plunge from last year’s $639.1 billion down to $433.2 billion—a fall of over one-fifth of a trillion dollars. Where is Washington going to find the $3.5 trillion it needs to raise from the debt markets this year? Looks like the printing presses are going to be running 24/7.
Still in my copper short. But time is running out, not that I think the trade wont work, but im headed to Kodiak Island, Alaska next week and will be out of all communication for 2 weeks. So I'll be closing all positions--long and short, by next Monday. I am short copper through BOM at 17.39.
I shorted silver on 2-26 and doubled up on 3-16 via ZSL. Ave cost is 4.48. Its been a long month, ugh. I was surprised it pushed back above the 200dma at end of Feb, but stalled out at the downtrend line off the Dec high last week. The uptrend line from the Feb low was broken on Monday, so now testing the 200dma. Overall it still looks like a sideways trade for the forseeable future. One caveat though, XAU and GDX almost look like they could embark on a very steep decline over the next month. This would of course be accompanied with a substantial selloff in PM's. Maybe the sideways trading band will be widened? Target on silver would be $14 in this case. GSR will have to widen otherwise at the current 65 would project to $920 gold.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
SM looks to want to hit 11,000. A slight correction here before a final push? If gold doesn't turn before the SM pulls back shortly a few hundred points the miners will see some additional routing, though I don't think they will fall to the previous lows made around Feb 8th when gold hit $1044. I'm still surprised at the number of larger juniors hanging near their yearly highs though one by one they slowly seem to be peeling away as gold slinks lower. Aurizon, Goldenstar, Novagold, US Gold, TRE, etc. are still hanging in there.
roadrunner
Agreed.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I concur as well. The price action is NOT the same as it was in Dec/Jan... there is definitely some buying going on. >>
I bought some GLD today, via selling the May 92 puts. Like my recent GLD trades, it is a low risk, low reward trade, without much bullish conviction.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The 5yr/2yr interest rate ratio chart is saying the 4 month ABC correction is over. The ratio blew through the 200 dma line and then bounced off a very oversold 2.4 which has been strong support for a year. 5 legs down are completed in this last C leg. This chart has been a good predictor for gold trends the past year. Add that liquidity has been entering the markets for a few weeks now and that all bodes well for gold which really didn't take part at all in the current stock run up due to the Euro/Greece/Health Care mess that the gold cartel bombers took full advantage of....along with the usual bond week interest rate strengthening. But now all that is passed.
rate curve from stockcharts
Gold to silver ratio is only moving sideways so far in this corrective leg. Let's hope it stays that way. Still in in the 64-65 range.
COT: gold commercials gorged on longs by adding 15,000 this past week while selling a few thousand shorts...dropping the short/long ratio from around 3.4 to 2.7. Net commerical shorts now back to the low of less than 230,000 back in late December. The dollar commerical shorts were added on to as well.
roadrunner
On another note, physical gold (pre 1933) premiums appear to be way down... Mon/Tues are GREAT days to load up, IMO. Actually, a good time to load up in everything gold... stocks, futures, options.
of course, this doesn't mean that the first month has to be a barn-burner, but it should be positive.
I now feel comfortable enough to make the proclamation: "I believe gold has reached its lows for quite some time."
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The 10/2 or 5/2 yr ratio yield charts are both bouncing off the 50 week ma which has been strong resistance over the past 3 yrs...never penetrating this line except for at most a week....as it did this past week. Decent gold moves typically come out of the bottoming of the 5/2 or 10/2 ratio charts. And the 10/2 weekly macd histogram is the lowest it's been in > 3yrs. Gold's ADX line has gone from peak to bottom in 5 waves and is now flatlined (just like it did in 2006). ADX up from here seems the logical way out. It may not be time for gold to go parabolic but a decent move seems due.
It's hard to find anything reliable and "real" is stats today. But if anything is real it's the longer term (5-30 yr) interest rates. The short term rates as well as price of gold are manipulated both up and down. The run in gold to $1225 last year may have been played up a bit. The banks probably got a lot of mileage out of scaring people on the smackdown from to $1044, enough to convince many gold bulls that $1000 or less was in the cards, and maybe a long term washout. That works better for them than allowing a slow and steady rise to $1225. The long term rate curves and their ratio's are much steadier and reliable....and point the way....while gold and silver overreact in both directions to cause intended confusion and indecision.
roadrunner
Broken downtrend channel. Intact 2 yr uptrend. Strong upmove this year that broke above 200 dma. A subsequent pullback to that 200dma. 50dma and 200dma upward sloping.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I think that the curve will fall further and retest the up trend line over the next several weeks...giving us an April-May gold rally. It looks like a 5th leg down is needed to touch that line. That might only take 1-2 months. Then another major swing up to at least the 50-62% FIB levels to complete the larger B' leg pullback. Once that pullback is complete in the later summer I suspect that the curve will do a long term dive into leg C' and make new multi-year lows. I could draw in an upper channel to the blue trend line by connecting the Aug 2007 and July 2009 highs. That would lead to about a 80% retrace and hit the resistance pocket formed during the deleveraging of Fall 2008. That would be worst case imo. It's also possible that the long term blue trend line is in danger of being broken soon and down we go....but I don't think so. There are no negative divergences to suggest that. A longer retrace up on this chart falls in Dave's orginal thoughts that gold will be weak for at least 12 months and take us into the later parts of 2010. My gut feel is that inflationary effects will become very pronounced in the later half of 2010. Deflationary projections are all scare tactics. Would not be surprised to see the Dow hit 12,000 this year as it completes it's 3rd major up wave since March 2009. There will be no deflationary crash, at least not anytime this year or next year....just measured pullbacks. My 2 cents.
One could also say that a long term H&S is forming and that the chart will take out the lows from 2007-2008 in late 2011. That would coincide with new all time highs in PM's. I suspect at some point liquidity flows will get obscene as the dollar heads to new all time lows starting later this year. The dollar still has to complete it's last wave up. That could take until late summer as this GSR look-alike chart also rises to a cyclical peak.
roadrunner
Silver Lease Rates
Another interesting article, stuff we've all seen before:
"LBMA trades over 100 times the amount of gold it actually has to back the trades."
I more or less agree with your thinking--potential for lots of up and down--in the end nowhere.
GSR looks to be in a range from 60-75. Whichever way it breaks will determine the next "big" move.
Gold may try again for 1200, but it most likely wont break. The larger channel between 1000-1200 will remain intact.
Closed silver and copper positions Thurs/Fri. Made 1% on silver, lost 4% on copper. Bored and happy to get away for a few weeks.
Can anyone explain why DBA--agriculture commodities ETF--looks so bad? Or does it look good at this price?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>GSR looks to be in a range from 60-75. Whichever way it breaks will determine the next "big" move. >>
Is there a rule that says that gold or silver must outpace each other in order to make a big move? They can't move up or down proportionately together?
It's a big mistake to make rely on inter-market relationships as they tend to fail when you want them to work the most.
RE: Grains - I wouldn't touch them... here's what my daily newsletter said:
"Although acreage predictions are only early estimates so far, traders are already anticipating an ample crop this upcoming season, as both new-crop December 2010 Corn and November 2010 Soybeans are trading well off their highs. This is true especially for Corn, as traders still remember how difficult the weather was for last year's Corn crop -- especially during the harvest -- yet U.S. producers still managed to produce over 13 billion bushels of Corn!"
Basically - an abunance of supply is killing the market and this isn't expected to change...
Thanks for posting that GSR chart. I had not really come up with a good analysis (or one that fit) as to what it was doing short term until I saw your multi-year chart. And it made me do some thinking and digging. Your chart format made the last few weeks of waves easier to "see/count." It sure seemed like a short term 5th (or C) wave down was due. And in looking at today's action that may already be in progress having commenced as early as a week ago Friday when it hit 66+. It may now be on it's way back to 60-62 to touch the lower uptrend line. In looking at the short term chart I do see some neg divergences in the RSI, SS, MACD....so it seems that GSR needs to push all those indictors into the bottom/oversold zone yet again. Today's move into 63.9 territory penetrates the first GSR leg up from around Sept-Dec. Therefore that 5 leg zig-zaggy pattern looks more corrective than impulsive. It never quite made sense to me being just a mess of wiggles. I'd now say the entire move since Sept. is looking quite "corrective" rather than impulsive, though that last leg going parabolic to 71 was pretty impulsive looking. Overall I feel GSR is heading much lower once this corrective phase finally ends in a more defined ABC. In the meantime the zigs and zags in GSR offer trading opportunities in metals and equities.
Can anyone explain why DBA--agriculture commodities ETF--looks so bad? Or does it look good at this price?
I tend to think that DBA, UNG, SRS, FAZ, SKF, and other "popular" ETF's are not much more than skimming scams. They often don't follow their own markets which is a problem. When Ag producers were moving up this past month DBA was heading down...but then again so was Archer Daniels Midland (ADM). SEED and GRO were more accurately trending the upmove than DBA. I'm leery of DBA having been bitten by it back around Feb 2009. There are better ways to trade the Ags imo. As liquidity flows increase I think grains/ags will be one of the biggest beneficiaries....along with PM's, and energy. People have to eat, and there are more of them every day demanding a higher level of consumption/quality. Liquidity should briefly pull back during the May/June to July/August period. During that time probably only cash and cash-like substitutes will prosper....physical gold could hold its own though silver will probably suffer.
Is there a rule that says that gold or silver must outpace each other in order to make a big move? They can't move up or down proportionately together?
No hard and fast rule as over the past year we've seen the PM's move in every permuation of the GSR. But the normal movement of GSR has metals rising on rising GSR (gold faster than silver) and metals falling on lowering GSR (silver faster than gold). And if we look at the GSR chart having risen parabolically to 90+ in 2008, it makes sense that the impulsive waves down since then have been in silver's favor. Only during corrective phases do we get to see the chance of silver and gold running parallel...for brief periods. I do agree that it's potentially a big mistake to make rely on inter-market relationships as we have in the past. The banksters know this and no doubt try to maneuver them to their benefit. At some point they could break down completely and offer no help.
Since GSR is merely (and for now) a reflection of market liquidity, one typically expects that silver rises and falls more than gold on liquidity shifts. And since those liquidity shifts tend to be swift and large, silver moves swift and large in most instances....like today. GSR reflects liquidity. So within those confines, silver and gold play.
During the more controlled move up from 2006-2008 we saw the GSR much more stable as it remained in the 50-60 range. It was only on its last few month run to $1033 than it dipped down into the 45-50 range.....then rebounded into the 90's over the next 7 months during the smackdown (it's amazing what doubling down in a single month on the otc silver derivatives to $190B will do for paper silver). Seems for now we're in a more volatile period than pre-2008 and should expect most silver moves to be more aggressive than gold. Once the banksters started to increase their paper silver shorts in 2006, then doubled down in 2008, this market has been changed forever.
roadrunner
A move over $1145 will let us know "it's on."
BTW, the BB's on the gold volatility index are EXTREMELY tight right now. A big move is imminent.
Also, what do you guys feel is up with the dollar? I would think the added burden from the passed health care fiasco would have given an immediate drop in the value of the dollar...do you guys feel the lag in the drop is purely because no one knows how deep we'll be, or are the MM's drinking the koolaid that the legislation will actually decrease the deficit, making the dollar stronger?
I guess I'm still not sure if the dollar's moves directly or nearly directly impact POG and POS...
Still really enjoy reading your comments, guys. Thanks!
What will the second quarter bring? Can the rally in stocks continue or will there finally be a correction? Will bonds fall off a cliff like so many pundits are calling? Will gold finally make a big move?
(Cue the Batman TV series music...)
Seems that the Dow is now destined to reach the 61% FIB retrace level or around 12,000+. There will be pullbacks along the way but probably nothing major. Many are expecting a major blowout this summer where everything but the dollar and treasuries corrects back from a 1-2 year bullish run. We'll see.
Gold is currently still following the same general pattern that was traced out from April to August 2009...including the current small H&S formation tacked on the end. In August that formation failed and off gold went towards new highs. Repeat?
roadrunner
<< <i>Will silver participate in the move, PC?
Also, what do you guys feel is up with the dollar? I would think the added burden from the passed health care fiasco would have given an immediate drop in the value of the dollar...do you guys feel the lag in the drop is purely because no one knows how deep we'll be, or are the MM's drinking the koolaid that the legislation will actually decrease the deficit, making the dollar stronger?
I guess I'm still not sure if the dollar's moves directly or nearly directly impact POG and POS...
Still really enjoy reading your comments, guys. Thanks! >>
I called for a silver run to start in early January that never materialized, so I don't really know what to expect for silver... it's been hard to call for me as it splits the lines between PM and commodity. I expect silver to at least maintain its proportionality to gold. But over the big move... up to $2300 or higher by this time next year, I expect silver to outperform gold percentage-wise. As gold starts busting through $1300, 1400, 1500 and higher, money will naturally start diverting into "alternatives" PMs like silver. I think gold will at least double, and if gold will double, I think $40-50 silver is reasonable.
I don't put too much stock into the excuses given to why markets do or don't move. The fact that the markets didn't move when healthcare passed didn't surprise me. From what I can tell, the markets pretty much do what they want to do, and the reasons touted on "bubble-vision" are just the best explanation they can come up with for the day.
Anyway, as I've said in previous posts, I've come to the conclusion that in the final stretch of the parabolic move for gold, its relationship to the USD won't matter. The USD and the price of gold (POG) may and likely will go up at the same time!
One comment on the dollar though...
The dollar is strong only because the euro has been very weak. And the Euro may not be around much longer - especially if Germany (one of the Euro's heavyweights) refuses to help out (i.e., bail out) Spain, Greece, and others as they have already said. That said, a strong USD is not in the US' best interest. How else is Barack Husein Obama going to double exports with a strong dollar?
And another though ocurred to me the other day... Is the USD strong because perhaps the Yuan is pegged to the USD, and maybe the Yuan is giving support to the USD as well?
Anyway.... time to start a new thread.