Should Population Report be Reflected in SMR?

dalew

I was fortunate enough to send in two cards - one from my own set and one that I found for free at a local card shop, those being - Ray Culp from my own ungraded set which came back as an 8 with no qualifiers, and the other one was Tom Haller IA which I obtained from a local card dealer for free which came back an 8 with no qualifiers.

I noticed that both cards have low numbers in the Population Report. But, it seems that the Population Report is not reflected in the SMR.

At some point, do you see this changing?

Dale

dalew

Sorry, I'm talking 72 Topps Baseball

Dale

qualitycards

Dale - That would be very confusing. Perhaps on the vintage cards from the 40's and earlier where raw cards are getting harder and harder to locate. But many issues in the '60's & 70's have low pop's only cause few sent in a '69 or a '73 common a year or 2 ago. These #'s seem to change monthly. In the '68 set that I collect, I've noticed cards with a pop of 1 or 2 slowly turn into 6 and 7. So there would be so much activity in the SMR, it would be insane...jay

Wayne8348

I agree Jay. Perhaps in the pre-war it would be safe to take into account population. I don't see too many 90 year old men walking into card shows to sell their mint condition goudey's they had in their attic for the past 65 years. It would be impossible for the more modern cards.

Wayne

qualitycards

Wayne, Exactly! We (and all fellow '65 set collectors & Angels collectors) need the '65 Bob Lee #46 - there are ZERO graded. So its not out of line to see this reach $100. (SMR $18.00 PSA-8) when 1 is finally offered. By the time the 3rd and 4th are available, the price should reach double book, and by the time 8 or 9 are available it may not even reach SMR. There are many complete sets that have this card in there, just no one has made the effort to slab it. So to gauge this based on scarcity, the SMR would likely change every time one is slabbed. Them multiply this by the hundreds of other '60's and '70's that haven't got around to be graded, the SMR would look like the daily stock report ...jay

dalew

Well, if none have been graded and they go for lets say $100.00, then thats the value at that time. The SMR flutuates all the time due to availability, worth, etc. The SMR should reflect various things such as what the prices are going for on ebay, availability at that time, etc. According to the SMR I should be able to buy a common high numbered 72 card for $28.00. Want to bet?

dalew

I can't type tonight. A PSA 9 that is.

Wayne8348

Dale, Let me give you an example of this. There was a 1965 topps psa 8 common pop 4 that sold for approximately $80 on ebay last month. I bought a 1965 topps common pop 3 for $20 on ebay last month. Does this mean that pop 4 cards are worth more than pop 3's?
All it means is that is low pop cards prices are all over the board. It would be impossible for SMR to come up with a value - especially on cards where there haven't been any sales during the past couple of years.

You said that if none have been graded and they go for $100 then that's their value. Well if they haven't been graded - then they haven't sold - then there is no way to place a valule on them. How can you speculate what a card that's never been sold it worth. Another example is 1970's. You can through smr out the window on 1970 topps right now. But 3 months ago these cards probably went under smr quite frequently. Two to three active set collectors can drastically change the prices of cards in a set. And these same collectors may go hot for a month on buying and cold the next. At least with smr we have something to go by even if it's far from perfect.
With modern cards it's always half beckett (which means you are probably paying way too much for the card) or one third beckett. I'm just glad that smr is reasonably close on many of the cards. Good job psa!

wayne

acowa

<All it means is that is low pop cards prices are all over the board. It would be impossible for SMR to come up with a value - especially on cards where there haven't been any sales during the past couple of years.>

I think pretty much ALL cards are priced all over the board. I further agree that it's hard to come up with a value - which means that SMR doesn't really reflect values on cards. I am watching a 1953 Topps Dick Groat card bid at over $900 on EBAY right now (SMR = $55 ) So, is SMR supposed to be what the top 5% of collectors will pay for a card or is it supposed to be what the masses will pay?

I think SMR has to start taking into account relative scarcity on vintage cards...otherwise everyone will solely rely on the population reports. (which is being done already) I honestly can't think of a great reason to look at it quite frankly.

Regards,


Alan





Link to Groat auction if you're interested

aconte

Does anyone have a feel on where we think we are as far as the high end cards submitted to grading
companies? Do you think that most of the "good stuff" has been submitted to Psa or is their still a ton
of vintage out there that collectors have not submitted to date?

My opinion is that there is probably a lot of 70's stuff still out there but I think we'll find some definite
hard to get high grade commons. I can't seem to be able to put my finger on the 50's and 60's cards.
I've seen the red man and 64 giants still grow in high end cards at a decent rate. I always wonder to
myself if the well will eventually run dry on these cards. But when? I see high grade cards and get
cautious in getting into bidding wars. On the otherhand, I become concerned that I'm going to pass
on a card and not see another high grade example in years.

Do you think most high end cards are slowing down in submissions?

aconte

thegemmintman

Aconte - besides the relative supply of the cards in question one has to consider how long PSA has been grading a particular issue. PSA has been grading the 1964 Topps Giants for 2 1/4 years now which isn't terribly long so I think you will see plenty of more 8's and 9's graded. Other issues have been graded for 10 years and they are definitely drying up. Just my opinion .

bosoxphan

Aconte- The pre war stuff has pretty much dried up in high grade. You hardly ever see anything raw above EX. The population report pretty much bares this out as well. In tracking the PSA 8 numbers over the last year. All of these sets have increased PSA 8 numbers less then 7-8%, some only a couple cards. For most of these sets the commons in high grade are valuable cards, hence the rush to get them graded. I think that's kind of key. How valuable the commons are in the set. The more valuable, the better chance most have been graded. The populations on the 60's and 70's sets are still increasing pretty dramatically. The 50's sets are tweeners. For these sets I like to use the Mantle rule. The sets that have the biggest variance between the population of Mantle (or another high pop. star/rookie if no Mantle) and the population of the low pop. commons. The sets that have the greatest difference still have some population increase to go. The sets with the smallest difference have had the majority of their cards graded. Seems to work OK. The sets that have the most commons graded already like the 1952 Topps and 1953 Bowman increased very little in PSA 8 over the last year, 7-8%. The sets like the 1956 Topps set with a huge Mantle number and then a few cards with very low populations, increased 13% in PSA 8.

mikeschmidt

I think that there is untold hoardes of 1970s that will be graded 9 in the next few years. I just do not see the opportunities for these drying up.

However, pre-1960, there is not much that is still out there. There are still a few sets where PSA 8 commons do not bring a lot of money -- so there many be quite a few PSA 8 (and potential 9) commons for about a handful of the 1950s sets. Anything pre-1952 -- I would assume that the vast majority of high graded cards have been graded. You just don't see too many increases in population for Cracker Jcak, Goudey, etc. Occasionally you will have a "find" of a single set that gets graded. Even one high-grade raw set has a huge impact for the set collectors.

But there are still some high grade sets out there. The new story I have on that is in regards to the 1954 Topps set. For those of you who follow such things, there have been a significant increase in 1954 Topps high grade cards in the past 18 months. Most notably, last summer saw the first grading ever of a 1954 Topps Ted Williams #250 graded out PSA 10 GEM MINT. Last week saw a 1954 Topps Ernie Banks card grade out as PSA 10 GEM MINT. Also, from the same submission, there is a PSA 10 GEM MINT 1954 Topps common on Ebay right now. (I believe it is Don Riddle). It has been rumoured through certain circles that all three of these cards came from the same high grade set. I mean -- can anyone even believe that? Three cards that probably command a combined $300,000 between them -- perhaps more. Who the heck has a set like that? How is it possible for such a set to exist? Talk about perfectionism taken to the extreme -- before grading became a big thing! I mean -- how many people would ever think that they had an opportunity to get a Hall of Fame rookie card in PSA 10? Just rambling here, I think -- but there are a few high-grade raw sets out there. You basically are going to have to wait for the owners of those sets to either a) leave the hobby or b) die. I've heard of too many collectors like that whose collections are incomprehensible -- but for all intents and purposes, they don't exist. No dealer, no person, no one has any clue about the depth and breadth of their collections. And it is a bonanza for the lucky finder of their collections when they decide to part with it.

MS

aconte

Thankyou for the response gemmint, bosoxphan, and ms. I glad someone has kept track of the
increases on some of the vintage stuff. I'm trying to use this as a measuring stick for the cards
I collect. I know of one collector that has not sent in all of his best sets yet. He is in the process
of doing so in the next year or so. He is a very patient collector. Something I preach but do not
always practice. I believe there are some but not many who have held their high end cards as
"raw" to date.

I know not everything is the same for all sets but I do think patterns exist. This includes vintage
finds, submissions, and purchases or acquistions. For me I find this challenging. I not only enjoy
the hunt but I often strategize on picking up the right cards. For example, currently on ebay
Kityoungcards has about 17 red man cards for sale in Psa 8. I need a bunch either to add or
upgrade to my sets. I've reviewed population increases and recognize (with the help from this
board) that while some may not have increased greatly, odds are they will based on the few
adds in Psa 8 over the last 3 months. Now the key for me is to pick up a couple. Keep my fingers
crossed that I get a decent buy price, and hope the ones I pass on come up again sooner than
later. Obviously other factors do come into play.

Thanks all! Enjoy the hunt. It can be a thrill.

aconte

bosoxphan

Aconte- What year (make) sets does he have left to send in for grading, if you don't mind me asking?

aconte

bosoxphan,

Not at all...

This particular collector has been collecting all four of the red man series (52-55) since I believe
1981. I may send him this thread in hopes he could provide greater detail than I.

He has had his best 54's and 55's graded. I believe he will be sending in the 52's this month.
He uses Sgc. They graded these cards before Psa. I have purchased some of my best cards from
him. He uses ebay to sell his duplicates under the handle "mrredman" He has found Sgc to be
very consistent and likes the holders. Also, while Psa cards have demonstrated excellent liquidity
the red man series are strong in both holders. This is obviously due in part to populations. This is
why I have Sgc and Psa graded red man. I have about five awesome Sgc92's that I've bought
from mrredman. His cards are superior!

I believe he will be grading his "top" 53 set around summer. His own inventory is probably made up of some of the best cards that I could only dream to afford. Along with the cards he has many of the
other items that complimented the red man memoribilia from the era.

aconte

bosoxphan

Thanks. Beautiful cards. The pictures are so detailed, definitely an eye catching series.

FB

I agree that there are still untold treasure troves of cards from the 70's out there. I know of several dealers in my area that have boxes and boxes of EXMT to NM/MT cards that they haven't looked at in years, because they don't need to. They won't spend the $50 for a table at a card show, because its only $15 at a flea market. So, they sell a few cards a couple times a month and restock their cases only when they have to.

Even 60's material is still out there in relative quantity. It seems like its only been a few years where the sets from the 60's have gained respectability compared to the super sets from the 50's and earlier. Seventies sets are just starting to get there now because they're a cheap(er) alternative.

To get back to Dale's original question - maybe Pop report can be taken into account towards the SMR SLIGHTLY in a few more years. When you're dealing with a Pop 3 in PSA 8 versus a Pop 16 in PSA 8 you really can't be sure whether the difference is due to quality cards being unavailable to send in (no offense Jay) or that no one has had enough interest to send them in yet. Down the road, when there is a much wider gap it will be much more indicative that these particular cards are indeed much tougher to find in NM/MT condition.

For now - especially working on the 72 set - don't go too crazy bidding. There are still a ton of raw cards out there....

And nice pickup on the Haller IA in 8. Thats one of the tougher ones.

mikeschmidt

Dale -- Even with the true vintage sets where there are likely very few high-grade cards in the future, the Population Report does not get figured into the SMR. For example, 1933 Goudey simply has a qualification like "high-grade low population PSA 8's continue to sell for significant premiums over the listed SMR" -- or something like that.

I haven't really seen SMR make much of an effort to put in any population-related premiums that are not associated with series runs. I think 1952 Topps has premiums listed for high-grade examples at the beginning and end of each of its series. But never really see much along the lines of "random card just can't be found in high grade -- thus $500 SMR for an 8".

gaspipe26

I just sent a 1965 Bob Lee to PSA. It should 8, and YES the SMR should take into account the POP report for pre1965 cards in my opinion but they shoyld also get to the real world on some cards that sell for 3x's SMR too.

yawie99

i have a somewhat related - and potentially stupid - question about the population report: is it reflected in the weights that are assigned to cards in registry sets that have been weighted? i suppose it really couldn't be considered in sets whose graded population is still evolving, but what about sets that have a pretty well-defined population and recognized scarcities among the commons? just curious.

Wayne8348

Gaspipe - I'LL TAKE IT!!!!!

Wayne