USD 7 year cycles and Gold
2Cents
Posts: 8
I love having gold, however I am not aware of the USD 7 year cycle of it. I listened to a Deutch (sp) bank analyst saying the bottom of USD has been set, and it's time for it to go up.
No idea how this could be, so I researched the USD cycle. Here is something that seems to make sense, in light of the Dems no longer having control of the Senate and that gold is so heavily manipulated and has very little energy in a global economic turn.....if that turn is beginning to happen that is. Here it is FWIW, info to consider.
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Quoted:
Cycle Change: US Dollar (just begun)
The dollar has had some historic cycles, but how can a currency have a cycle? After all the market does not have the typical commodity based supply and demand structure, so what actually causes a cycle shift in a currency?
In currencies the basis for a cycle is more of analysis of whether a long term trend on policy shift has occurred. Currencies tend to maintain long term trends as economic outlook and monetary policy offer periods of years in which policy is implemented, not weeks or months.
In the case of the U.S. dollar the cycles over the past 20 years have been long and pronounced. In 1995 the market set a secondary bottom, not unlike what the market did in 2009, and began a 7 year plus bull cycle. In 2003 the cycle high was in and a 3 year collapse retraced all of that 7 year move, only to be followed by additional selling until a cycle low was likely hit in 2008.
A secondary bottom, formed by a near perfect double bottom on two consecutive monthly lows in November and December of 2009, has likely setup a technical cycle shift into a bull run that I expect to last 3-5 years. Technical confirmation of the cycle shift will occur if and when the market closes above the high set in April 2009.
On a fundamental level the cycle is shifting based on the U.S. being the leader of a global economic recovery, as well as the inherent flaws in the unified euro currency's structure. If the euro is to lead the currencies it will have a difficult time as the countries that compose it all have different economic problems not addressed by unified monetary policy - a clear issue that will be exposed in 2010 and beyond.
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Any comments?????
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Comments
<< <i>I don't usually put a lot of stock in these kinds of "automatic" predictions, like every 7 years X will happen with the dollar, every 20 years XY will happen with the economy, etc. Things happen until they stop happening.
Agreed! We know what is certain in life. Death and taxes! Live within your means, diversify your assets, expect the best but be prepared for the worse.
<< <i>I love having gold, however I am not aware of the USD 7 year cycle of it. I listened to a Deutch (sp) bank analyst saying the bottom of USD has been set, and it's time for it to go up.
No idea how this could be, so I researched the USD cycle. Here is something that seems to make sense, in light of the Dems no longer having control of the Senate .... >>
Please, no political pap, such as pretending that 59 votes is not greater than 41 votes. Speak your piece and get off the soapbox.
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't usually put a lot of stock in these kinds of "automatic" predictions, like every 7 years X will happen with the dollar, every 20 years XY will happen with the economy, etc. Things happen until they stop happening.
Agreed! We know what is certain in life. Death and taxes! Live within your means, diversify your assets, expect the best but be prepared for the worse.
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
The dollar's down cycle in the last commodity's boom lasted basically from 1966 to 1982....a lot longer than 7 years. It lost 2/3 of its value during that period. Possibly there were 2 cycles in that run? The Armstrong business confidence cycle waves run 8.6 years and to me seems to better mirror the runs in gold vs. the dollar. The current down wave supposedly ends in June 2011 with a strong bottom (the last bottoms were fall 2002, spring 1994, mid-1985, Jan. 1977, mid 1968, etc.). It makes more sense to me that the dollar continues to weaken during the current commodities/gold upleg that began in April 2009. The last commodities up leg was from 2/25/07 to 3/22/08, during which time the dollar was trounced. I suspect the dollar will end this next overall leg in June 2011 much weaker than today's level. That's not to say it couldn't rebound at times in the process. The current Armstrong leg is the longest of the 6 waves that make up the 8.6 year cycle.
Katz on US dollar chart - why 79 is a "fair" price but not necessarily the market's intended price
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>I love having gold, however I am not aware of the USD 7 year cycle of it. I listened to a Deutch (sp) bank analyst saying the bottom of USD has been set, and it's time for it to go up.
No idea how this could be, so I researched the USD cycle. Here is something that seems to make sense, in light of the Dems no longer having control of the Senate .... >>
Please, no political pap, such as pretending that 59 votes is not greater than 41 votes. Speak your piece and get off the soapbox. >>
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My question was 'has anyone heard of the 7 year cycle. I have not. But I don't follow gold and usdx as close as you guys.