stock market crash/Doug Casey

Kip

See 321 Gold......Has this guy ever been right about anything :-)
Cheers
Kip

roadrunner

I don't see where DC went out on a limb at all to state anything new. He says the SM is in for a big fall this year. It probably is. Does anyone here think it will go up without any significant correction this entire year. So if it drops 10-15% in the next 11 months he would be right. I know that sometime this year the SM is gonna drop some amount....maybe 5%, 10%, 15%? How does one define "big?"

I typically don't go out of my way to read stuff from Casey's group. It's usually more than covered everywhere else. One can get too much of a constant drone of pro-gold comments. What I did like about his interview is that he mentioned the roadrunner.

roadrunner

sbeverly

As a subscriber to his Flagship publication on speculating on the junior miners "International Speculator"
Casey has had some good calls, and some not so good calls. Overall the picks have done well, providing, as he points out
that the shares in these exploratory stage companies are not to be viewed as family heirlooms, but more like burning
matches.

The upside is that they tend to be very leveraged to an increasing pm market.

Late in 07 when he (as well as many others) were calling for a general market meltdown. He was advising, as well as my own sense of how much markets are driven by fear and greed, that when it melts, that the babies (the juniors) might be thrown out with the overall market. So, unless you have the intestinal fortitude to ride it out, (should this actually happen) you might want to take some profits now, and buy back in when they looked like no one else wanted them. I don't think that he believed that they would take so long to recover.

This presented (to me) a valid enough argument for me to take a lot of my chips off the table,
which was/is very psychologically hard for me to do when they were (at that time) on fire.

That decision saved/made me do well financially, not to mention prevented a lot of heartburn and sleepless nights
for many months.

There are a lot of writers out there that contribute value as well as get it wrong sometimes. For me, I try to read
the best and pick out the pearls.

The one exception to the many writers would be Nadler. I try to keep an open mind, but when I read his stuff
George Orwell's book 1984 comes to mind. It reminds me of the doublespeak of the Big Brother characters.

Just my 2 cents...

jmski52

The thing that I like about Doug Casey is that he does have a perspective that isn't dollar-centric.

His research teams seem to put out information that is well-researched and well-thought out.

Nobody is right 100% of the time, but I'd bet on Casey's perspective before I'd ignore it entirely.

Norseman88

I don't know about a crash but I would love to see the stock market have a healthy correction of 10-15% to cleanse out the nervous money.
It would also enable me to make some money on my double short etf's.

57loaded

the DOW was riding on dollar weakness. a stronger dollar has hurt the DOW in this market. much of 30 DOW has a good sized portion of their investments and R & D (yes) overseas so it makes sense for now.

interesting that he was leveraging PM, because i just think it's a wee bit early to do that. when the DOW is unsteady and dropping in a weak dollar, then it's probably full steam ahead for PM's

bidask

There are areas of the stock market that could esily see sizable corrections but I do not forsee a major decline for the simple reson that the bond market is much more stable and spreads over treasuries do not reflect panick at all.........they are relatively benign.

coynclecter

<< <i>There are areas of the stock market that could esily see sizable corrections but I do not forsee a major decline for the simple reson that the bond market is much more stable and spreads over treasuries do not reflect panick at all.........they are relatively benign. >>



Yes its amazing how stable TBills can seem when the fed provides the money for direct and indirect buys.

gsa1fan

Kinda like paying one credit card off with another.

jmski52

spreads over treasuries do not reflect panick at all.........they are relatively benign.

Isn't the yield curve the steepest that it's ever been? Doesn't that mean in real terms that the government is running out of options for putting their cost overruns out into the future?

They have an abiding interest in keeping longterm rates as low as possible, but nobody wants the bonds. They have to "buy" them out of unidentifiable offshore accounts in order to present the appearance of a viable market.

Nevertheless, the market isn't going to reward this move, because short term rates, nearly zero, simply won't stay low. If they do stay low, or if they go net negative, that is the equivalent of the government paying someone to take their dollars. How long will it take for that realization to impact peoples' behaviors?

Added - there is also the concern about giving banks free money. That boneheaded idea is finally catching up with the perpetrators in Congress.

bidask

<< <i>

<< <i>There are areas of the stock market that could esily see sizable corrections but I do not forsee a major decline for the simple reson that the bond market is much more stable and spreads over treasuries do not reflect panick at all.........they are relatively benign. >>



Yes its amazing how stable TBills can seem when the fed provides the money for direct and indirect buys. >>

I am not talking about the fed liquidity and what they are doing....I am talking about spreads over treasuries that other bond instruments pay ( such as investment grade corporate, high yield, and muni bonds ) and theyare not wide like they were in late 2008 and early 2009.