OMG Look at this price drop --- Chart
HalfStrike
Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
Silver and Gold Commemorative Index (10 years)
It has retraced back to 2000 according to this, is it time to buy or what? I can't see how the gold could drop in this surge.
It has retraced back to 2000 according to this, is it time to buy or what? I can't see how the gold could drop in this surge.
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and the classic gold seems to include ->
7443 1903 63 G$1 Jefferson
7443 1903 64 G$1 Jefferson
7443 1903 65 G$1 Jefferson
7443 1903 66 G$1 Jefferson
7443 1903 67 G$1 Jefferson
7444 1903 63 G$1 McKinley
7444 1903 64 G$1 McKinley
7444 1903 65 G$1 McKinley
7444 1903 66 G$1 McKinley
7444 1903 67 G$1 McKinley
7447 1904 63 G$1 Lewis and Clark
7447 1904 64 G$1 Lewis and Clark
7447 1904 65 G$1 Lewis and Clark
7447 1904 66 G$1 Lewis and Clark
7447 1904 67 G$1 Lewis and Clark
7448 1905 63 G$1 Lewis and Clark
7448 1905 64 G$1 Lewis and Clark
7448 1905 65 G$1 Lewis and Clark
7448 1905 66 G$1 Lewis and Clark
7449 1915-S 63 G$1 Panama-Pacific
7449 1915-S 64 G$1 Panama-Pacific
7449 1915-S 65 G$1 Panama-Pacific
7449 1915-S 66 G$1 Panama-Pacific
7449 1915-S 67 G$1 Panama-Pacific
7450 1915-S 63 $2 1/2 Panama-Pacific
7450 1915-S 64 $2 1/2 Panama-Pacific
7450 1915-S 65 $2 1/2 Panama-Pacific
7450 1915-S 66 $2 1/2 Panama-Pacific
7451 1915-S 63 $50 Round
7451 1915-S 64 $50 Round
7452 1915-S 63 $50 Octagonal
7452 1915-S 64 $50 Octagonal
7454 1916 63 G$1 McKinley
7454 1916 64 G$1 McKinley
7454 1916 65 G$1 McKinley
7454 1916 66 G$1 McKinley
7454 1916 67 G$1 McKinley
7455 1917 63 G$1 McKinley
7455 1917 64 G$1 McKinley
7455 1917 65 G$1 McKinley
7455 1917 66 G$1 McKinley
7455 1917 67 G$1 McKinley
7458 1922 63 G$1 Grant, No Star
7458 1922 64 G$1 Grant, No Star
7458 1922 65 G$1 Grant, No Star
7458 1922 66 G$1 Grant, No Star
7458 1922 67 G$1 Grant, No Star
7459 1922 63 G$1 Grant With Star
7459 1922 64 G$1 Grant With Star
7459 1922 65 G$1 Grant With Star
7459 1922 66 G$1 Grant With Star
7459 1922 67 G$1 Grant With Star
7466 1926 63 $2 1/2 Sesquicentennial
7466 1926 64 $2 1/2 Sesquicentennial
7466 1926 65 $2 1/2 Sesquicentennial
7466 1926 66 $2 1/2 Sesquicentennial
Edited to add:
This is true but that was one big bubble that you remember well.
Perhaps your point is that comparisons depend on the selection of the correct comparitor
<< <i>Mark,
This is true but that was one big bubble that you remember well.
Perhaps your point is that comparisons depend on the selection of the correct comparitor >>
Ron, bubble or not, my main point was that an approximate 23% drop in price is not really that big of a deal, depending on the timing involved. I do agree that the 1989-90 peak was a bubble, but there have been and will be others. Happy 2010 to you.
<< <i>Even the key dates and rarities index -- usually gravity-proof -- is down 9.4% from its 12-month high... >>
I would call that normal market fluctuations based on economic health and inflation.
<< <i>What might look considerably more dramatic/worse for classic silver and gold commemoratives, would be a price chart that goes back to 1989. If memory serves me correctly, many issues are currently trading at fractions of what they were back then.
Edited to add:
People need to have charts like this engrained in their heads. One something goes into bubble stage, it takes at least a generation to recover. Deflation is evil.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Thanks!
<< <i>Anyone know what accounted for the spike in popularity around 1988-90? This is not a market I'm familiar with, so any comments are much appreciated.
Thanks!
The high prices from that time period applied to many other coin types, as well. The widespread excitement over and embracing of PCGS and NGC certified coins (which were in their infancy) accounted for part of the fuel,. So, too, did the formation of one or more rare coin funds.
I remember being at a coin show during that time period and being offered approximately 30% over bid (which seemed to be increasing on a weekly basis), sight unseen, for a group of two to three dozen common MS65-66 silver commemoratives. At the prices the coins were trading at back then, I think the transaction amounted to $30,000 plus.
Edited to add: I'm not certain but would guess that grading turnaround times were probably on the slow side then, and coins in short supply, relative to the demand.
this is one chart situation where the bubble is an anomoly not going to be repeated. It is a good chart for the very very long term though.
Simply put. It's the time period when Coins began to be TPG'd in nice neat little slabs with a grade, giving one the impression that they can be traded sight unseen. That impetus got the attention of Wall Street investors, along with the inclusion into Retirement Portfolios.
<< <i>silver going from not much to close to $50/oz helped the spike >>
That was in 1980, not 1990.
<< <i>Excellent chart, Mark. This kind of long-term graph puts the coin market in meaningful perspective. >>
Thanks Roger, but PCGS gets the credit for the chart.
OK, PCGS did the chart, but your explanations made the chart meaningful!
It's fun to pretend to be an expert.
In reality, market factors are what drives coins...read a few folks promoting something, and then everyone jumping on the bandwagon, then the rug gets pulled out.
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
then you might be happy with the decline
Lexington MS67 $12,200 -> $18,500
Monroe MS67 $17,600 -> $23,500
1948 BTW MS66 $400 -> $500
There are probably a few others as well.
1989 prices from Harry Laibstain's 1994 book, current prices from PCGS price guide.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
<< <i>I know I'm going to catch some heat on this, but the fact is that with few exceptions, silver classic commems are NOT rare by any stretch. I'm not talking about the monster toned examples, which still command big money, I'm talking about the MS 65, 66, and 67 coins in most series of which tons of them have been made. In spite of low mintages, many, many of these coins were saved in large numbers, many in roll quantities. Some believe that they will never recover to these lofty earlier levels because there are just so darn many of them, and I agree with this line of thinking. There are exceptions especially among some of the earlier issues, like the Lafayette Dollar, but these exceptions are few and far between. >>
I'm not so sure you're going to catch any heat for that - it sounds reasonable. But if this will make you feel vindicated in any way.....
<< <i>[
HA! We could use some of that heat tonight down here in south central Florida... forecast is 33° for the next four nights... colder still in Orlando.
a good buddy of mine in florida sent me this link to prod me into a comment and prod me he did...so here goes with my take...and i will see if i can articulate my thoughts
imho the basket of coins used to produce this chart needs an asterisk here and there when it is put into an algebraic equation used to produce this chart .........meaning that one has to refer to a few of my "legs of the table" to fully grasp the concepts such as ( obviously the more legs a table has... the harder it is for it to collapse )..... ( i wish our banks understood this too )
1) buy great coins aka pq monsters ( to do this you have to travel where the monsters are and know who has them .....both dealers and collectors )
2) understand the market ....aka realize the tpg ( initially began in 1986 to bring liquidity to the market ...AND IT WORKED BIG TIME ) is indeed now " ranking coins " which evolved due to the conception of the registry ( AND IT WORKED BIG BIG BIG TIME) which has actually raised the bar aka prices for the great coins
3) spend some time ( aka years ) in the market which will allow your coins to rise above the rest ( obviously if you have bad contacts and sources ...poor knowledge ect the ...results will be diminished )
the algebraic formula i use is
q + r = demand ( the q = quality and the r = rarity* ( meaning exactly how a particular coin ranks in regards to the others in it`s space
and d is for demand = prices
* for example the basano coins...ie the 36 texas and the 38-d oregon >> both these coins where on the chart in yesteryear as 67s back in 1986 and then went to 68 somewhere along the road and now are 69 s and these 2 coins will bring many multiples of the prices they brought as 67s>>>> AND NO WHERE IS THIS FACT REFLECTED ON THIS CHART .......which makes the chart worth less to some and worthless to others and worth a lot to others..... meaning its worth a lot to people who are using it to show what a great time it is to buy...........worth less or worthless to people who dont fully understand the intricacies of the market
thus again i reiterate that one should never forget that these are the same coins and obviously now being " ranked " the best now ....they were certainly the best way back in yesteryear ( TO A PERSON WHO WAS SMART ENOUGH TO REALIZE IT WHEN THEY BECAME AVAILABLE TO THEM )
** so here is my take on the future
1) there are thousands of newbies in the incubator stage thanks to the state quarter program....the us mint ..the internet for knowledge and a few other reasons who will grow into a huge base of demand for all coins
2) all governments around are debasing their currencies setting the stage for massive inflation globally down the road ....so prices have nowhere to go but up in tangible assets
3) a fixed supply ...aka cant make any more of them
4) there always has been and always will be rich people ( aka better off than most ) ...no matter who is in office or what the political landscape is
ok sports fans ..........let your comments fly!!!!!!!!!!!
monsterman
ps im feeling better everyday and i will see many of you at FUN
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
>>>>I know I'm going to catch some heat on this, but the fact is that with few exceptions, silver classic commems are NOT rare by any stretch. I'm not talking about the monster toned examples, which still command big money, I'm talking about the MS 65, 66, and 67 coins in most series of which tons of them have been made. In spite of low mintages, many, many of these coins were saved in large numbers, many in roll quantities. Some believe that they will never recover to these lofty earlier levels because there are just so darn many of them, and I agree with this line of thinking. There are exceptions especially among some of the earlier issues, like the Lafayette Dollar, but these exceptions are few and far between>>>
i totally agree with you.........due to your MOST IMPORTANT caveate
" I'm not talking about the monster toned examples "
AND A FEW TUFF DATES THAT JUST DONT COME MONSTER ...OR IF THEY DO THERE ARE ONLY A HANDFULL
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
monsterman
ps i heard you won an award for " market timming " by selling your house at the peak of the market ..you ole sleuth you
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i>JHDFLA
>>>>I know I'm going to catch some heat on this, but the fact is that with few exceptions, silver classic commems are NOT rare by any stretch. I'm not talking about the monster toned examples, which still command big money, I'm talking about the MS 65, 66, and 67 coins in most series of which tons of them have been made. In spite of low mintages, many, many of these coins were saved in large numbers, many in roll quantities. Some believe that they will never recover to these lofty earlier levels because there are just so darn many of them, and I agree with this line of thinking. There are exceptions especially among some of the earlier issues, like the Lafayette Dollar, but these exceptions are few and far between>>>
i totally agree with you.........due to your MOST IMPORTANT caveate
" I'm not talking about the monster toned examples "
AND A FEW TUFF DATES THAT JUST DONT COME MONSTER ...OR IF THEY DO THERE ARE ONLY A HANDFULL >>
Hi Greg,
This caveat can be extended to almost any series that applies to what you said about dates that just don't come nice, or dates that come nice but only a handful of exceptional examples exist. Seated quarters in the '40's instantly come to mind for example. Glad to see you posting, your reputation precedes you, and I mean commems not football
John
<< <i>If the market had more depth technical analysis would work.
In reality, market factors are what drives coins...read a few folks promoting something, and then everyone jumping on the bandwagon, then the rug gets pulled out. >>
This exists in all collectible markets. The primary driver of price is demand.
In most markets supply is the primary determinant because most of the demand is
built right into the culture and the economy. There aren't large swings in the amount
of lumber used to build homes except thos imparted by the home building market
because lumber is the chief material. People are used to bread made of wheat so
demanbd remains fairly stable as various forces cause increases and decreases in
production.
But not even a coin collector "needs" some specific coin. If everyone is clamoring
for something else many will jump on the bandwagon. If the price is too high or
too low a collector might lose interest. People don't stop eatring bread when it
goes on sale though but they might have no interest in a collectible because they
correctly or incorrectly perceive it to be very common.
This is why collectibles can't make sound investments; you can't predict the vagaries
of human nature nor the specifics of future demand. Collectibles do have dramatic
realignments in price structure and if you can be on the right side of these then you
can make profit but most of the money made in coins is made by those who can day
in and day out sell coins at a profit or add value to coins by knowing the market, cre-
ating a market, assembling collections, providing supplies or expertise (like graders),
and (mostly unfortunately) improving the appearance of coins.
<< <i>If one wishes to view the Feld supplied chart from a technical point of view the commemerative market should bottom at the 1997-8 low; if it breaks that low then the 1980 high should be support. In case you wonder, I have no reason to believe that technical analysis has been vetted for coins. Furthermore, I have no training in technical analysis.
It's fun to pretend to be an expert. >>
A chart is a chart whether it be of coins, stocks, snowfall, or bull----. A good chart reader will be able to make sense of it. The "thinness" or "illiquidity" doesnt mean a thing. Once something trades at a price it makes a point on the chart. Connect the lines to the next trades and you have a chart.
People who do not heed bubble charts are doomed to participate in terrible rates of return. That charts looks just like the Japanese market, the nasdaq, gold(finally exceeded highs after a generation) and real estate in selected markets. Maybe commems finally bottom this decade.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
>>>This exists in all collectible markets. The primary driver of price is demand.
>>>
sherlock homes i presume
>>>This is why collectibles can't make sound investments; you can't predict the vagaries
of human nature nor the specifics of future demand.>>>
oh contrare ...you must work for the guberment....give me a topic aka commodity and i will predict the price movement up or down over any time line you want
for example
collateralized debt obligations..aka cdo s>>>down in short term
bank stocks in general>>>>down in short term
citi bank>>>down in short term ...mid term ...long term
>> you can't predict the vagaries
>> there will always be rich people and they always will be chasing things to stroke their ego.....a rich man can buy doezens of beamers and benzes but if he wants the best ______ coin i can point him in the right direction ...and if there are 2 wanting it....the price has only one way to go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the fact is ...the facts are just that...the facts
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
John
>>
thank you john...great to be back ...and i assure you i will try to live up to my reputation and not disappoint you nor anyone else
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
Her logic is not completely sound, as per usual, in her latest market report & note that one reason coins are not out there for the auction houses is that prices are low and so collections not appearing. I think large collections held by deep pocket collectors (read "investors") are sold en bloc and not piece by piece and that is the real reason that individual collector coins are hard to come by even at higher prices that she keeps carping on about.
I do not see a lot of collectors coming to the market as a result of the State quarter program and think most of those folks faded into the woodwork, but maybe someone has evidence to the contrary.
Overall, from a seat of the pants perspective the chart trends appear about what I have seen, and even a bit conservative at that; think about the Rick Tomaska "monster cameo" coins and what they bring (especially after one of his buyers tries to sell coins they bought from him back to him several years later). Sorry, not to pick on him but just thinking of him as an example.
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>
thank you john...great to be back ...and i assure you i will try to live up to my reputation and not disappoint you nor anyone else
>>
It looks like you're in fighting trim, too.
Welcome back.