This is the kind of gold chart that warms my heart, and here's why...

jmski52

straight down

Because I know that it's not real. It's manipulation if I ever saw it. Normal trading and then, out of nowhere..............no trend to speak of, just the usual attack on gold, on a light trading day......

It simply makes my resolve to wait them out much, much stronger.

roadrunner

Same pattern 2 days in a row at the same time following an overseas rise in the metal.

roadrunner

cohodk

Chart patterns like that are common in thin markets. There may have been a seller bigger than the buyer, hence a quick price drop. No manipulation needed. And it is a real move.

How many times does the price go straight up? No manipulation there?

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

jmski52

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Comrade Cohodk! I don't hold it against you. We are buds!

cohodk

secondrepublic

I picked up some SLV on the dip at $16.93. Someone evidently dumped some shares before the end of the year. Slow day.

roadrunner

How many times does the price go straight up? No manipulation there?

When the timing is almost the same as the past 2 days then it looks very suspect. One analyst recently waded through the last year of gold fixings and came up with the fact that 80% of the time the Comex closing price is lower than the London AM fix. That seemed somewhat counterintuitive considering how much gold rose in the past year. At around 100% it might become manipulative. So in a steadily falling gold market should one expect the London AM fixes to be higher than Comex closes 80% of the time?

roadrunner

jmski52

So in a steadily falling gold market should one expect the London AM fixes to be higher than Comex closes 80% of the time?

roadrunner, stop making sense! You're confusing me.

cohodk

<< <i>How many times does the price go straight up? No manipulation there?

When the timing is almost the same as the past 2 days then it looks very suspect. One analyst recently waded through the last year of gold fixings and came up with the fact that 80% of the time the Comex closing price is lower than the London AM fix. That seemed somewhat counterintuitive considering how much gold rose in the past year. At around 100% it might become manipulative. So in a steadily falling gold market should one expect the London AM fixes to be higher than Comex closes 80% of the time?

roadrunner >>



We've been through this how many times now? Economic reports are usually issued at 8:30Am and 10AM. I cant tell exactly what time that move in gold occured but it most certainly is associated with the release of economic data which could move the dollar and/or interest rates and have a direct impact on gold. Stop looking for conspiracies already. It will only make you crazy.

fc

good grief.

roadrunner

Since when should short term and usually meaningless news & economic reports have any bearing on the performance of an asset over the longer term (ie few days vs. 1 year)? The reports do make reasonable cover as they are spun positive or negative to get the desired effect. I guess what we're basically agreeing to is that the 75% up move in gold over the past year or so was made during that 20% portion of the Comex where prices happened to be closing higher than London's. I guess that's possible. So even though the majority of the world's physical gold is cleared daily through London it's the lesser paper-Comex that "drives" the price. Got it.

roadrunner

jmski52

I guess what we're basically agreeing to is that the 75% up move in gold over the past year or so was made during that 20% portion of the Comex where prices happened to be closing higher than London's. I guess that's possible.

Counterintuitive, at best. OTOH, it's nice to be able to think for yourself. Just imagine the boat that most people are in, trying to make sense of the markets without some reflection and insight. They probably believe 80% of what they hear on the financial segment on NBC Nightly News (is NBC still around?).

cohodk

<< <i>Since when should short term and usually meaningless news & economic reports have any bearing on the performance of an asset over the longer term (ie few days vs. 1 year)? The reports do make reasonable cover as they are spun positive or negative to get the desired effect. I guess what we're basically agreeing to is that the 75% up move in gold over the past year or so was made during that 20% portion of the Comex where prices happened to be closing higher than London's. I guess that's possible. So even though the majority of the world's physical gold is cleared daily through London it's the lesser paper-Comex that "drives" the price. Got it.

roadrunner

<< <i>



What are you talking about? The OP posted a chart of a quick intra-day drop in the price of gold. I stated that it was most likely the result of the release of economic data.

There are probably many factors that go into the closing price of gold in London and New York. Brian, you are much too intelligent to be continually sucked in by this conspiracy BS. Ask your self, what is to be gained by closing gold $2 lower in New York than in London 4 days a week(if that info is even accurate).

With all this conspiracy BS gold has still managed to go from 300 to 1200. So where is the conspiracy? And why does it even matter? The world does not revolve around gold. Gold goes down 10% and everyone starts crying. It almost like people feel they are ENTITLED to have gold go higher.

jmski52

With all this conspiracy BS gold has still managed to go from 300 to 1200. So where is the conspiracy? And why does it even matter? The world does not revolve around gold. Gold goes down 10% and everyone starts crying. It almost like people feel they are ENTITLED to have gold go higher.

Which conspiracy is it that you don't think exists? You really think everything should be interpreted at face value in the financial world? If so, I have some shares of Worldcom I'd like to sell you. Or maybe JDSU.

I agree that the world doesn't revolve around gold, but who's crying? Who feels entitled about having a higher gold price? Not me. I really expect nothing, and I wasn't expressing disappointment about that small price drop, just vindication. I'm not expecting to make a bundle on gold, I'm only expecting it to keep my finances from being destroyed.

I see a price action that doesn't follow the recent type of price action and I see manipulation. You offer that it moved because of new data, which could be entirely the case. By the same token, tell me which economic data isn't manipulated? Economic data has been manipulated in an attempt to show government actions in a positive light for as long as I've studied finance.

cohodk, you're a perceptive and nimble trader and you will survive. I take the position that I can interpret long term trends based on the economic implications of political trends, and I've done well with that approach. Frankly, I think that the biggest conspiracies involve the dollar, not gold. If you disagree about conspiracies in general, I respect that but you shouldn't take the attitude that any conspiracy is out of the question and that anyone who suspects as much is not intelligent or is some kind of entitled whiner. Not considering all of the possibilites puts you into the very category that you disparage.

For the record, here is the conspiracy: The conspiracy is to trash the dollar gradually in order to finance the political aspirations of the party in power, public be damned. The conspiracy is to screw savers and seniors in order to allow the government to self-perpetuate. The conspiracy is to allow the large banks, labor unions, and special interest groups a seat at the table in determining whom to tax and whom to grant special benefits at the expense of the regular working stiff.

Need I continue? Prolly not.

roadrunner

I'll change one word in this:

But I submit without the 1990's gold carry trade, central bank selling for the past 2 decades and they keeping their books a total secret (for something that "doesn't matter"), a couple hundred trillion in interest rate swaps, $1.14 QUAD in world-wide otc derivatives, a half a trillion in otc gold and silver derivatives, a massive silver short concentration held by 2 banks on the Comex (which didn't exist like that until the last 2 years).... to name just a few.....that the gold price would have gone up a lot more than just 4-5X in the past 10 years. The circumstantial evidence on the one side is piled too high to ignore. As a reasonable person I made that decision quite freely a number of years ago. To say that it's just all coincidence doesn't cut it for me. The CB's still claim to have 30,000 tons of gold but I doubt they have anything close to that number. The IMF/WGC recommends double-counting all gold lease transactions....odd behavior for something that isn't manipulated.

One could consider the gradual decline of the dollar from 121 to 71 from 2001-2008 to be the best they could have done. It also resulted in gold going from $255 to $1033 at the time. Imagine what it would have done if completely left untouched by the PPT-Treasury-FED-Big Banks.

The bigger conspiracy of course is on the currency/bond side. Gold is only the mirror that tends to reflect the health of those "markets." It's easier for me to focus on physical gold since it's probably the least manipulated of all assets considering that it's basis is 155,000 tons of physical bullion that cannot be cheated upon. You either have it or you don't. In the end it will be found out. The reason that it matters is that end result is a slingshot effect as gold catches up to 20 years of manipulation....much the same way it did in the 1970's following 10 years of manipulation under the London gold pool. Bankers cheated on gold in the 19th century (and every century before that). It's really no different today. It's really quite expected and increases the potential upside to the metal. To think that the govt enters the other markets routinely yet would ignore gold seems to be unlikely. Gold can be moved far easier than the currency markets. It's just a matter of optimizing one's bullets.

Yes, in the end it really doesn't matter...other than to help me decide on which side of the trade I'd rather be on.

roadrunner

cohodk

jmski52,

I understand your position and respect it. Heck, I even agree with most of what's written here.

Just type the word "conspiracy" into the search feature of this forum and you'll see what I mean. One forum member--who seems to have disappeared lately--even went so far as to say his silver was "stolen" when it dropped from 21 to 16 last year. I just think people would be able to trade and invest with better results if they did not buy into the conspiracy/manipulation mechanism that so permeates the newletter writer fraternity.

But dont worry, as a New Years resolution, I hereby vow to refrain from my constant need to try to debunk conspiracy/manipulation theories.

jmski52

One forum member--who seems to have disappeared lately--even went so far as to say his silver was "stolen" when it dropped from 21 to 16 last year.

I bought a green monster box last year at $21 myself, but it's still secure, big as life, hardly stolen!