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Is it a "correction" when it's headed north?

WeissWeiss Posts: 9,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
Au + $14.20 as of 9:00 central...

image
We are like children who look at print and see a serpent in the last letter but one, and a sword in the last.
--Severian the Lame

Comments

  • secondrepublicsecondrepublic Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭
    looks like it was a short correction....
    "Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The correction in December 2007 was only 7-8 days. The chart from August-December 2007 is quite similar to what 2009 has looked like. This still may be only the B leg which could propel gold upwards towards $1150-$1200. And then another leg down (C) to retest the $1100 area again....or we could be done. The majority of the analysts out there see another week or two of downside. If the majority are usually wrong then it's off we go. A break above $1139 would be a first good step in regaining bullish traction.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • MoneyLAMoneyLA Posts: 1,825 ✭
    at worst, a 10% correction would have taken gold down to $1,100.

    we had less than a 10% correction. it might retest the recent low, but this is still a bull market.
    Cheers, Alan Mendelson
    www.AlanBestBuys.com
    www.VegasBestBuys.com
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,904 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I wouldn't want to be in long bonds for about, oh - say the next 10 years or so. RE: Japan's "lost decade".
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I wouldn't want to be long in dollars for the next 10 yrs or so either.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,904 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'd buy potash, except that I won't buy paper, and it's probably more difficult to take delivery of, and a bigger p-i-t-a to store.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,259 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's usually a breakout when it goes up.

    In a consolidation it will go up and down, which is what we can probably expect for a few more weeks before a new trend will emerge.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Is it a "correction" when it's headed north?

    To be absolutely technical, the entire 13 month move up from $700/oz in November 2008 could still be a strong "correction" in a multi-year down draft. While the probablility of such continues to decrease as the pog goes higher, it can't be ruled out by Elliott Wave rules until somewhere around $1370-$1400 gold.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • MoneyLAMoneyLA Posts: 1,825 ✭
    roadrunner, a question: isnt a correction over when a new high has been reached?
    Cheers, Alan Mendelson
    www.AlanBestBuys.com
    www.VegasBestBuys.com
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    a question: isnt a correction over when a new high has been reached?

    Not always per strict EW rules. An expanded flat pattern (ABC) has the B wave correct back up beyond the original high where the initial decline started. While this is not the norm we typically see they do happen. The first strong wave in gold in the 1970's peaked out in 1974 and then peaked somewhat higher on the B wave. EW rules say that the B wave can technically exceed the A wave by up to 2X, though typically guidelines would say it would be something much less.....1.27, 1.61, etc. If a 2 year corrective pattern is still in progress the A leg was -330 pts while the B was +527 pts....a ratio of 1.60 or very close to the 1.61 Fib ratio. The 1974 expanded flat correction was not more than 1.1X.

    Personally I don't buy the current leg as an expanded B flat, esp when it reached 60% beyond the previous peak, some correction! But one has to keep all possibilities in the back of the mind. This is the Ron Rosen or Bob Prechter view that says we will begin a massive C leg down to return to $500-$650 once again.

    Kitco chart
    (select gold, historical charts, the 30 yr 1969-1999 chart & data)

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • MoneyLAMoneyLA Posts: 1,825 ✭
    I dont buy EW theory. I just know this... when something hits a new high, the correction is over and its a new high.
    Cheers, Alan Mendelson
    www.AlanBestBuys.com
    www.VegasBestBuys.com
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    Dollar WAY up? This is crazy. I suppose it reflects on European news. Unemployment up, little more realistic numbers.
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I dont buy EW theory. I just know this... when something hits a new high, the correction is over and its a new high.

    You don't have to buy the theory. But if one bought gold in the 2nd half of 1974 after it reached a fresh all-time high they would have been smothered over the next 2 yrs as it corrected back 50%. That new high signaled that the first half of the correction was over and the major 2nd half was just beginning. Imagine if something like that happened from $1225 all the way down to $625?

    As far as EW theory goes, it looks like gold is just now completing a standard EW series of 5 impulse waves down from 1141. The bears still have the reigns.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • secondrepublicsecondrepublic Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Imagine if something like that happened from $1225 all the way down to $625?
    >>



    I think a some people on this board would be thrilled to see $625 gold... others, less so.
    "Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
  • dohdoh Posts: 6,457 ✭✭✭
    It ain't headin' north no more.
    Positive BST transactions with: too many names to list! 36 at last count.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Where is todays chart? Just kidding.

    FWIW---I do want to hold dollars over the next 10 years. Gold also.


    MoneyLA,

    roadrunner, a question: isnt a correction over when a new high has been reached?

    How do you know when a new high has been reached? After it has dropped 5%, 10%, 20%, 50%? Thats the root of my complacent comment. People are not afraid of "paper" losses, because they do not realize there is no such thing. They believe their investment will always come back. Sometimes they do and sometimes not. At what point to you finally realize it is not coming back? For arguements sake lets assume I am not talking about PMs now, as that seems to cloud judgement.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • Steve27Steve27 Posts: 13,274 ✭✭✭
    "Is it a "correction" when it's headed north?"

    That's south.
    "It's far easier to fight for principles, than to live up to them." Adlai Stevenson
  • WeissWeiss Posts: 9,941 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>"Is it a "correction" when it's headed north?"

    That's south. >>



    Immaterial. Was it a "correction" when it was headed north?
    We are like children who look at print and see a serpent in the last letter but one, and a sword in the last.
    --Severian the Lame
  • dohdoh Posts: 6,457 ✭✭✭
    Wow sub-$1100...
    Positive BST transactions with: too many names to list! 36 at last count.
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    Seems like a huge dip. Seeing the dollar so high I suppose it could be or get much worse.

    Short run I hopeimage
    Avid collector of GSA's.
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