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Do you back off when the bidding gets rough?

When the bidding for the set you collect heats up, and a bunch of new bidders enter the fray, do you pay more than you'd like to get particular cards or do you lay low for awhile? Reason I'm asking is a number of new bidders have entered the market for 1935 graded Goudeys. Couple months ago I was paying 100% of SMR but i was successful at those prices. Lately they've been going for 120 to upwards of 150% of SMR, which has also risen. Only one on Ebay now and it's 25% over SMR with 3 days left to go.

Comments

  • If it's something with a low pop... I would bid more agressively... if not I would bid as normal....I never back off due to competition... if they are going to beat me, that is OK, but they are going to have to pay for it...
  • VarghaVargha Posts: 2,392 ✭✭
    JH is right -- it depends on the scarcity (pop.) of the card. If it is common enough, don't get caught up in the bidding "frenzy". If it is scarce, then be prepared to pay for it. There have been times when I have paid high for a scarce card and it later came on the market for much less. However, there are many times when I have procured a scarce card only to never see that card up for sale again or to see it go for much more. Too many times in the past, I passed on a card because the price was too "high" at the time, only to pay a lot more to get it at a later date.
  • It depends on the set you collect. If you collect large, modern (post-1960) sets, I think it makes sense to back off when the bidding gets out of hand. But with a relatively scarce issue like 1935 Goudey, there is a risk that over time most of the cards will "settle" with collectors, leading to higher prices on the few cards sold publicly. So, in your case, I'd say bid what your wallet will allow.
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    POTD = 09/03/2003
  • bosoxphanbosoxphan Posts: 107 ✭✭
    Thanks. Now what do you consider scarce or low population? Most of the cards in the set have total populations of 20 or so. The Ruth card is the highest with a total pop of 95, 37 in PSA 6 or better, which is what I'm trying to do. There's a half dozen in the 11-14 total population range, with 5-7 of those in 6 or better. Thanks for the help.
  • bosoxphanbosoxphan Posts: 107 ✭✭


    << <i>It depends on the set you collect. If you collect large, modern (post-1960) sets, I think it makes sense to back off when the bidding gets out of hand. But with a relatively scarce issue like 1935 Goudey, there is a risk that over time most of the cards will "settle" with collectors, leading to higher prices on the few cards sold publicly. So, in your case, I'd say bid what your wallet will allow. >>



    Good point, thank you. It was a rather unpopular set, but seems to be picking up interest lately. Ruth's last card during his actual playing days. I was wondering at first if the population of the cards would increase significantly as interest increases. That has happened a bit recently, total population increased 33%, 200 cards, over the last year, but most of those cards were lower and mid grade. Most of the increase was in grade 6 and lower, with the largest % in PSA 1-4.
  • VarghaVargha Posts: 2,392 ✭✭
    Five to seven total cards graded PSA 6 or better sounds pretty scarce to me. However, bid according to the grade as well.
  • mikeschmidtmikeschmidt Posts: 5,756 ✭✭✭
    1935 Goudey is not going to be one of those sets that will have (m)any population explosions in the next 5-10 years. There are probably some nice ungraded sets out there -- but not a huge number.

    SMR is a guide only. I think you will do well to bid smartly, but not be afraid to win auctions every now and again. Perhaps you will get lucky and there may be a nice ungraded set in the April Mastro auction. That would be great for you.

    MS
    I am actively buying MIKE SCHMIDT gem mint baseball cards. Also looking for any 19th century cabinets of Philadephia Nationals. Please PM with additional details.
  • mikeschmidtmikeschmidt Posts: 5,756 ✭✭✭
    Also -- agreed with Vargha that Populations of 5-7 in PSA 6 or better is very, very scarce. If you have the money for low populations 7s and 8s (pop 3 or less) pick them up when/if you can. You may not get any additional opportunities in the next 2 to 3 years.
    I am actively buying MIKE SCHMIDT gem mint baseball cards. Also looking for any 19th century cabinets of Philadephia Nationals. Please PM with additional details.
  • bosoxphanbosoxphan Posts: 107 ✭✭
    MS- Thanks for the insight. Anything that you can tell me about the set is appreciated. Info is as scarce as the cards when it comes to this particular set. I know the 4-1 design was pretty unpopular back in '35 which in turn has kept the number of cards low, no one wanted to buy them. At least nothing like the buying that went on in the '33 set. Why do you think the population numbers will remain low? I like them, I think they're sharp, especially the blue bordered cards. What's the chances of a set coming up for auction on Mastro, I've never delt with them before. Picked most everything I've got off Ebay and Teletrade. Thanks for the help.
  • mikeschmidtmikeschmidt Posts: 5,756 ✭✭✭
    I would say that there is at least a 30% chance that the April Mastro auction may have some 1935 Goudey cards available. Almost certain that one of their auctions this year will have a set or partial set.
    I am actively buying MIKE SCHMIDT gem mint baseball cards. Also looking for any 19th century cabinets of Philadephia Nationals. Please PM with additional details.
  • dudedude Posts: 1,454 ✭✭
    Generally speaking, when something is relatively scarce, I go for it aggressively. But you always have to be careful. I don't know much about 1935 Goudys or what grade you are after.

    To me, the most overlooked thing in any auction is where the #3 bidder stands in the final bidding. When the #1 and #2 bidders are miles ahead of the pack on the final bid, then this is a dangerous position to be in if you are #1 guy. If the same, duplicate item comes up again, it will theoretically sell for one bid increment over what the original #3 bidder was willing to pay and the original #2 bidder will get the same item for substantially less. (This assumes that the original #1 bidder won't come around to bump up the bidding which some I know they sometimes do just to play spoiler).

    For example, I collect 1968 cards and I'm typically the #2 bidder on the 1 of 1 PSA 9 or PSA 10 items. These can go from $250-$400 on the 9's and $500- $750 on the 10's. I could drive the #1 guy to his limit on every auction, but I usually take it easy on him and nowadays let him have them for a bit less. But when a second example later shows up, I can usually get the 9 for around $100 and a 10 for $350. The 68 collectors who wait for the 4th or 5th PSA 9 example can usually get them for $40-50.
  • mikeschmidtmikeschmidt Posts: 5,756 ✭✭✭
    Dude has a very good point. And, as a segue, that #3 bidder is the whole advantage (if you are buying)/disadvantage (if you are selling) of bidding alliances. If the top two or three bidders in a certain set agree to team up on auctions, split their winnings, they essentially end up winning the cards at one bid above the #4 or the #5 bidder.

    With 1/1 cards it becomes a very interesting game. Some set collectors (I think 1951 Bowman, 1963 Fleer and 1968 Topps are examples) have a money-is-no-object and will pay huge bounties for the 1/1 PSA 9s and 10s. However, when alliances come into play -- those same cards usually sell for up to half of what they would have before had the people been competiting against each other.

    From the bidding alliance perspective -- usually the same people that were competing end up winning the cards anyway. So if they can hold their ego in check and split the rare cards fairly with the other alliance members -- they end up with the same cards at a fraction of the cost.

    If you are a seller --- it is advantageous to sell when there is large competition and a lack of alliances. (like in the above-mentioned sets).
    I am actively buying MIKE SCHMIDT gem mint baseball cards. Also looking for any 19th century cabinets of Philadephia Nationals. Please PM with additional details.
  • bosoxphanbosoxphan Posts: 107 ✭✭
    Thanks everyone, I appreciate the feedback. I'll keep an eye on Mastro from here on in as well.
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