What series is due for a major 'correction' (read: crash!)?

braddick

(Please, without bashing the Modern series with general statements-) What Registry series do you believe is in for a major price correction? It might be due to a future pop explosion or simply a lack of new interests on the Collectors end.
Is it the State Quarter series in MS67? Kennedies in high grade? Ikes? Franklins? FS Jeffersons? SBA's? Maybe a Classic series?

keithdagen

I think that the state quarters in all grades pretty much already crashed when the populations exploded in MS-68.

Ikes are looking riskier. I see dealers offering MS-65 pieces now for over $100 on issues that are not keys, and I don't think that the market will support those prices. I am also seeing a lot more being sold at the Heritage auctions, which means the casual collector is trying to sell into the peak.

Kennedys still seem to have support, and many issues are still a bargain at today's prices.

Keith

MoneyLA

Frankly, I think the whole coin market is ready to take a hit. Perhaps not a big hit, but a hit nonetheless. The coin market has had a good, strong run and things dont go up in a straight line forever; this is normal and expected. The fact that the coin market is now getting so much publicity for price appreciation is a worrisome sign. Usually we see these claims and reports about price spikes at a market "top." Personally, I look at a price decline as a chance to pick up coins at reduced prices and I do not consider it to be a long term drop or change in coin collecting.

I still think that the coin market will get a big boost in a year or two as quarters for Florida Texas and California are released and draw new collectors -- and investors -- into the hobby.

Enjoy the lull in prices and demand that might develop over the next few months as it might be a short period. cheers, alan mendelson

Endocrinologist

I don't think the IKES will "crash" per se. I believe IKES are in a bit of a correction right now. Clad MS66 are not easy to make which probably justifies a premium from MS 65. On the other hand, Clad MS 64/65 IKES and Silver MS 67 IKES are "relatively" easy to make and probably at more risk of a "crash", but they are not starting out at a outragous levels to begin with (for the most part)

Endo

gmarguli

The entire Washington quarter series, not just the State Quarters. They've run up too much with all the SQ hype. These SQ collectors are leaving the industry and they'll cause the demand to fall.

jmwarren

Morgans. They have been way overrated, not more so than the last few years.

g097103

I hope you're right about the Washingtons, I have holes to fill and many upgrades but the prices are excessive. Actually I
expect to see an across the board cooling down if the economy doesn't pickup like they keep claiming it will. I freely admit
to being a relative novice and may be clueless.

Scott M

Typetone

I think finest graded IKEs are still undervalued in most cases. Compare a 73 or 74 finest graded in 66 at say $800 with about 50 graded to a late S date Walker (41S, 42S, 44S) with about 100 graded priced at about $2,200. Or compare a 71P in 66 with 17 graded at $3,500 to a 34D Peace Dollar in 66 with 23 graded at $5,650. Or the 72P 9 graded in 66 at $6,500 with a 34S Peace Dollar with 16 graded at $13,500.

In MS66 many of the more common dates have 150 to 200 graded with perhaps more likely to arrive. Typical prices are $200 to $250. Compare to more common late date Walkers in MS66. 1947 with 300 graded $500. 1946 with 268 graded $600. 1947D with 204 graded $450. 1945S with 150 graded $850. While the common date 66s have run up, they still seem reasonable. Better date 65s at $100 to $150 and more common dates at $50 to $100 also seem fine.

IKEs have been greatly undervalued and are now starting to climb to their potential but baring a collapse in the coin market, are not there yet.

What is overvalued? My view is high grade low pop moderns with little difference between the highest grade and the next grade down. Is a common date silver Washington in MS68 at say $10,000 worth so much more than a beautiful MS67 at say $150? I say these will crash. Or, MS68 low pop statehoods. I agree with Dennis D on these. Bye bye.

Greg S

shirohniichan

Please, without bashing the Modern series with general statements.

Hmm.. what's left to say?

keithdagen

Greg,

I agree with you that the highest graded Ikes are still not at a "fair" price. However, I can't see someone paying $175 for a 78-D in MS-65 (David Hall's current asking price). That's 172 graded higher and 327 brothers in grade. While Ikes are a hard series to make in grade, I think that piece will be sitting in inventory for a long while.

Keith

Typetone

Keith:

I am certainly not trying to defend a $175 price for a common date IKE in MS65. You and I both know that the real market price of these pieces is somewhat lower. I was suggesting a value in the $50 to $100 range, where I think they can be bought, is a decent purchase.

Greg