Gold Now Topping Out?

dragon · November 3, 2009 10:29AM

As the old saying goes............when every Joe Shmo starts talking about and wants in, the top is about in

I work as a stockbroker and have for over 14 yrs, and today for the first time ever I actually had 2 seperate clients call ME and ask if I think they should start buying gold bullion and how to do it. Then later in the day another broker in the office asked me where he can buy 1 oz. Krugerrands and what's a good price.

The last time I had clients calling me and asking me about "hot investments" was in late '99 or so when a few normally conservative clients asked me if they should start buying internet related stocks.

I'm still a gold bull though, and hope this time is different.

wayneme · November 3, 2009 10:54AM

isn't that the start of a bull not the end?

Weiss · November 3, 2009 10:55AM

I haven't met a single person in the last 18 months or so who is buying gold as a hot investment. They're buying to protect assets.

wayneme · November 3, 2009 11:02AM

i think their have to be buyers before it runs
just when everyone is buying you sell
just my thoughts!!

Cladiator · November 3, 2009 11:16AM

<< I haven't met a single person in the last 18 months or so who is buying gold as a hot investment. They're buying to protect assets. >>

Agreed. From what I've seen the flippers are out and those thinking they are being prudent are still in.

yellowkid · November 3, 2009 12:02PM

I think there is potential for a gold bubble, your experience today reinforces that theory and if it turns out to be the case, then there is still a long ways to go.

Norseman88 · November 3, 2009 12:02PM

<< As the old saying goes............when every Joe Shmo starts talking about and wants in, the top is about in

I work as a stockbroker and have for over 14 yrs, and today for the first time ever I actually had 2 seperate clients call ME and ask if I think they should start buying gold bullion and how to do it. Then later in the day another broker in the office asked me where he can buy 1 oz. Krugerrands and what's a good price.

The last time I had clients calling me and asking me about "hot investments" was in late '99 or so when a few normally conservative clients asked me if they should start buying internet related stocks.

I'm still a gold bull though, and hope this time is different. >>

A stock broker who's a Gold bug??? What an oxymoron that is, stock brokers never recomend Gold or Silver to their clients as they don't generate income like they do from mutual fund fees or stock trades.

Wolf359 · November 3, 2009 12:03PM

<< isn't that the start of a bull not the end? >>

Exactly. How else do bull runs start?

Justacommeman · November 3, 2009 12:30PM

My guess is that well less then 1% of Americans own any form of gold bullion.............Anyone have this stat?

I had a friend interview over one hundred people in NYC and not one person said they have ever held a real gold coin

EVERYONE I talk to thinks gold is going down......They have been saying this since $600

Granted, I run with a Wall St crowd

MJ

jmski52 · November 3, 2009 12:42PM

I go on a one-day road trip and leave the market to you people, and LOOK what happens!

dragon · November 3, 2009 1:21PM

<<< A stock broker who's a Gold bug??? What an oxymoron that is, stock brokers never recomend Gold or Silver to their clients as they don't generate income like they do from mutual fund fees or stock trades >>>

Yes, definately! I've been an avid and serious coin collector and die hard gold bug loooooong before my employment in the securities industry, and my recommendations to my clients are based on whatever I think will do well for them.

notwilight · November 3, 2009 1:48PM

I hear people complaining around the office that they didn't buy gold. I don't see them buying yet. It has a ways to go using this contrarian indicator (which I like and use) . --Jerry

ProofCollection · November 3, 2009 2:29PM

How can you say it's topping out? It established a new all time high today.

Real estate was red hot (not just hot) for 2 years before it crashed. Same with tech stocks 99-00. Gold will have its 1-2 years of red hot, and they are starting now.

MoneyLA · November 3, 2009 8:03PM

Im sticking with my expectation for 1300.

jmski52 · November 4, 2009 2:38AM

I hear people complaining around the office that they didn't buy gold. I don't see them buying yet. It has a ways to go using this contrarian indicator (which I like and use) . --Jerry

If that's what they're saying, they still don't get it, and might not ever understand what the dollar is, what fiat means, or why in the world they would ever want to buy gold - at yesterday's price, today's price, or even tomorrow's price.

They don't get it. They equate gold to the stock market and a "hot stock". Quick returns - that's the name of the game, right?

NOT!

Fountainhead · November 4, 2009 4:21AM

I note that the XAU still has not topped its peak in March, 2008 even though gold is much higher. What does this mean?

fc · November 4, 2009 4:32AM

<< My guess is that well less then 1% of Americans own any form of gold bullion.............Anyone have this stat?

I had a friend interview over one hundred people in NYC and not one person said they have ever held a real gold coin

EVERYONE I talk to thinks gold is going down......They have been saying this since $600

Granted, I run with a Wall St crowd

MJ >>

i bet during the last bull run of gold the same general stats were true
also.

oreville · November 4, 2009 4:39AM

<< note that the XAU still has not topped its peak in March, 2008 even though gold is much higher. What does this mean? >>

It means that gold is either overpriced or silver is underpriced.

cohodk · November 4, 2009 8:55AM

<< I note that the XAU still has not topped its peak in March, 2008 even though gold is much higher. What does this mean? >>

It means equity investors in mining stocks are not convinced the upmove in gold has any staying power.

Wolf359 · November 4, 2009 9:18AM

<< 

<< I note that the XAU still has not topped its peak in March, 2008 even though gold is much higher. What does this mean? >>

It means equity investors in mining stocks are not convinced the upmove in gold has any staying power. >>

Shorts getting a bit tight?

HonoluluDude · November 4, 2009 9:52AM

<< I note that the XAU still has not topped its peak in March, 2008 even though gold is much higher. What does this mean? >>

It means the naked shorts in mining shares are still alive and well.

cohodk · November 4, 2009 10:02AM

<< 

<< I note that the XAU still has not topped its peak in March, 2008 even though gold is much higher. What does this mean? >>

It means the naked shorts in mining shares are still alive and well. >>

Actually short interest in mining shares is very, very small.

HonoluluDude · November 4, 2009 10:17AM

<< 

<< 

<< I note that the XAU still has not topped its peak in March, 2008 even though gold is much higher. What does this mean? >>

It means the naked shorts in mining shares are still alive and well. >>

Actually short interest in mining shares is very, very small. >>

How can you tell? They're naked shorts. Naked means no transparency-- shorting shares that don't exist.

cohodk · November 4, 2009 10:37AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< I note that the XAU still has not topped its peak in March, 2008 even though gold is much higher. What does this mean? >>

It means the naked shorts in mining shares are still alive and well. >>

Actually short interest in mining shares is very, very small. >>

How can you tell? They're naked shorts. Naked means no transparency-- shorting shares that don't exist. >>

Prove to me there is naked short selling.

jmski52 · November 4, 2009 11:01AM

Prove to me there is naked short selling.

Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean that they're not out to get me.

roadrunner · November 4, 2009 11:02AM

The other banks hammered Lehman, Bear, and Morgan Stanley with naked short selling. They did the same with gold stocks last fall when they sent them back to levels not seen since 2002-2004. Ask JS about naked short selling the junior stocks. It has been one of the favorite pastimes of the big banks and hedge funds.

I note that the XAU still has not topped its peak in March, 2008 even though gold is much higher. What does this mean?

Usually gold stocks lead the charge. Those guys haven't made it back to intermediate peaks made in the last few months. Bearishness in the overall SM has dampened the enthusiasm for the miners. Bearish and bullish forces (inflation vs. deflation) are meeting head on over the next week. Gold can survive either scenario but silver and mining stocks can't. An intermediate topping out of gold the end of this week or early this week would not be totally unexpected after a major run-up for 11 months and making a new all time high. The last big breather was in March-April.

roadrunner

Gold Now Topping Out?

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