<< <i>So does the stock market cliche apply to the gold market, "never short a dull market?" >>
I think that applies. Too risky to do this with gold in this environment. Either be long or be out of the market, but shorting is dangerous.
Just think, Obama or Geithner could come out tomorrow and make an announcement about a drastic economic measure and gold could go up $100 instantly. You don't want to be on the wrong end of that.
I believe gold has reached it highs for some time...
I just don't have the guts to short gold right now. Visiting a friendly small BM the other day.....'32 ounces in over the counter..........34 ounces out over the counter'. Even in recession torn So Cal............there is ample buying right now by people spreading their assets around.
If the current U.S. political & Fed situation continues...gold will be seen just as another form of insurance....THERE IF YOU NEED IT.
Is there a price point where you reverse the negative frame and start trading from the long side
At this time I have no price point at which I would reverse my position as I still have very high confidence in my call. Tomorrow maybe the most important day for gold for the next year. >>
Even though Cohodk refused to give a stop loss price, even when pressed, many prudent position traders would take their 10% hit and move on. The initial post was around gold $1030, 10% is right here, right now. Trading DZZ (double short gold ETF), it is more like a 20% to 25% loss, and definitely time to move on to the next trade. I'm not saying Cohodk actual bought and held DZZ all this time, that isn't at all his style.
I am posting more for the readers, especially the many novices reading along, it is usually more instructive to look at lessons from losing trades than winners. Very few participants take the time to report their losers here on the forum. A novice just reading along might get the idea that trading is almost all winning trades--it ain't.
the #1 philosphy for trading is to cut your losses quickly and let your winners run.
getting back to gold -- I held off on buying gold (in this current cycle) until there was evidence of a definitive breakout that would run.
there were two key points for this break out and run:
1. the pennant formation with the break out at 980
2. then the reverse head and shoulders pattern which triggered my forecast of 1300, which I made on Oct 20th
there will come a time when this run will end, and a flat period, or new base building period will come. and that could come before the 1300 level is reached-- because we just don't know for certain.
as economists often say... if you are going to forecast, forecast often.
<< <i>the #1 philosphy for trading is to cut your losses quickly and let your winners run.
getting back to gold -- I held off on buying gold (in this current cycle) until there was evidence of a definitive breakout that would run.
there were two key points for this break out and run:
1. the pennant formation with the break out at 980
2. then the reverse head and shoulders pattern which triggered my forecast of 1300, which I made on Oct 20th
there will come a time when this run will end, and a flat period, or new base building period will come. and that could come before the 1300 level is reached-- because we just don't know for certain.
as economists often say... if you are going to forecast, forecast often. >>
So, I haven't checked, have you disclosed your position on your website? Disclosure is pretty much standard procedure for public figures now (it wasn't a few years ago).
So, I haven't checked, have you disclosed your position on your website? Disclosure is pretty much standard procedure for public figures now (it wasn't a few years ago).
MoneyLA has fully disclosed that he recommends no more than 5% of one's assets be invested in gold.
In essence, he recommends that 95% or more of one's assets should not be in gold.
Might as well throw darts at a page from the WSJ.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
As I stated at the beginning, I may be a little premature, as was proven, but am still holding to my opinion that gold will end 2010 lower than 2009. I am not expecting a bloodbath, or $600 gold, just a dead (ie, traders) market for the next 18 months.
to redtiger and jmski: I have posted this elsewhere as well.
I believe in 5% for gold and other metals because I dont put "all my eggs in one basket." and while gold might be doing well, OTHER investments might also do well now.
in another thread I mentioned shares of LVS and BYD which are up more than 100% in the past 52 weeks, while gold is up about 55% in the past 52 weeks.
gold is not necessarily the only winner.
by the same token, I dont want to risk having too much in gold in case gold should start going down. there is no "lock" on profits with gold. it could drop (though I believe gold now has a floor at 1,000).
if you want to put more in gold and silver and platinum, then be my guest and best of luck.
The original post came at $1071 gold on 26 October. Gold has moved up another 6.8% since that time. So what else has happened in the last month?
-Another round number was broken - $1100 -Gold is now in its best seasonal period: November-May.
-The longer term uptrend channel line formed by the parallel of the 2006 and 2008 lows was broken above. Next upper trend line is in the $1300+ range. That's the line joined by the 2007 and 2008 highs.
-Ron Rosen's bearish 2 year ABC count was for all intensive purposes toasted at $1135 gold. This also coincides with a pivot point. Bullish counts have the most likelihood at the moment.
-More central banks are stepping up to the bar to buy gold.
-GSR appears to be strengthening in favor of the metals. Silver coming back to life with a new yearly high adds another bullish element to the mix.
I think MoneyLA has it right.....except for the 5% part.
Nothing has to change. Nor is my opinion. I used the bump to liquidate my physical holdings.
The longer term uptrend channel line formed by the parallel of the 2006 and 2008 lows was broken above. Next upper trend line is in the $1300+ range. That's the line joined by the 2007 and 2008 highs.
<< <i>You can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make him drink.
Unless you shove his head underwater and suck on his axxhole/. >>
Sounds distasteful.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I guess the controversy now is whether or not you should limit your investment in precious metals, gold in particular, to 5%.
I am not going to criticize any of you for investing more than 5% right now, because gold is hot and you can ride the market even higher. it's definitely in a strong up trend.
but you are more educated than average or typical investors. you can accept the risk for the greater reward of investing more than 5% in gold.
I probably could invest more than 5% in precious metals as well, because I also share your optimism.
but Ive had a long term plan that Ive always stuck to, and it has always done well for me.
I dont mind buying in "late" and I don't mind selling out "early." my goal is to catch the big move. I don't care if I miss the early profits, and I don't mind if someone makes a little more than I do... as long as I don't lose.
when you try to get it all, you have to worry about this old saying: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
So the answer from MoneyLA is no answer, looks like no public disclosure of his personal gold positions for his readers. Sad, really. Public disclosure is pretty much a must these days for TV personalities, and other public commentators. A person doesn't have to detail every last ounce, or every last share owned, but basic disclosure when a person is giving opinions has become the standard after so many pump and dump scandals, and front running scandals.
As for 5%, 10%, 20%, whatever, I have never argued percentages or asset allocations. Those on this forum are certainly going to skew higher than average folks. There is a lot of life circumstance that will factor into the percentage, as well as investment personality, investment history, and a thousand other factors.
If you are asking me to make public my actual net worth or actual dollar value of any investment, youre dreaming.
I would not do that. And I wouldnt ask you to make public your assets or investments or net worth either.
Only public officials need to reveal things like tax returns. I am not a public official.
I may be on TV, but I am a private citizen. And I am not selling anything. My website is free to access. I do not sell any investment plan or strategy.
<<to redtiger and jmski: I have posted this elsewhere as well.
I believe in 5% for gold and other metals because I dont put "all my eggs in one basket." and while gold might be doing well, OTHER investments might also do well now.
in another thread I mentioned shares of LVS and BYD which are up more than 100% in the past 52 weeks, while gold is up about 55% in the past 52 weeks>>
Cherry picking two random stocks to illustrate your point is well, frankly (pause) weak when we are talking about an entire asset class like gold. You are actually making our case for us. A 5% holding in an asset class is not a hedge, not a point of view,not a statement and it barely qualifies it as a position imo. It's a no impact position meaning you will never feel it one way or the other. You may as well buy a couple more stocks with that 5% and really spin the wheel
Since you brought up the past 52 weeks here is a snapshot-----
S&P 500 +27.03% Oil (USO) -12.75% Gold (GLD) +52.29% Silver (SLV) +92.41% U.S. Dollar -13.15% Euro +17.54% HUI +155.07%
Why just dip your toes in when the water is just fine? Also, didn't you enter into gold just in the last inning therefore missing most of that move above?
You said, "I believe in 5% for gold and other metals because I dont put "all my eggs in one basket."
Well how do you like them eggs?
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Goldline used an excerpt from this article that I wrote in 2002 (repeat 2002) as part of their promotion. In that article I talk about the new gold rush (and I mentioned Goldline prices in that article), and gold was then at about $350 an ounce.
I announced the new "bull market for gold" in my reports on the noon news on KCAL in 2002, and repeated it many times in 2005 when gold was well under $500 an ounce, and every day when I reported the almost continuing rising price for gold, I repeated that it was a new bull market. This became almost a running joke with the co-anchors.
I was bullish on gold all the way up to about early 2008 when gold failed to bust through 1000. Thats when I became "neutral" and said gold was in a "trading range."
All I did was avoid the "churning" that went on with gold prices until the pennant formation breakout at 980, and then the bull signal was reinforced again Oct 20th with the return to 1000 and the presence of the reverse head and shoulders pattern.
Don't accuse me of being a newcomer to the gold camp. Ive been there for years. But I was safe on the sidelines during the churn and the correction in prices.
Do your own Google search and check the link from the Goldline website. By the way, you will not find the full text of that article because it was written when I owned moredeals.com which was sold and subsequently went dark.
MoneyLa- You have posted many times in many threads that gold gave you a bullish sign @ $980 and you were going on record on your website. You even started a thread to that effect. That is what I referenced in my post. $980 was the last inning, sorry. You deserve that credit.
You seem to want to have it both ways. That's just my opinion. I'm wrong sometimes. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
My position has always been this: that I sold my gold at about 945 back when gold was having trouble breaking through 1000. At that stage I believed gold was in a trading range. I always said it made no sense to hold gold during a trading range or even to buy gold during a trading range because you would be churned. I said, wait for a breakout if and when it came. I also warned of a double top at 1000 and even the possibility of a triple top.
But when I saw the big pennant formation with the tip at 980 I noted here, on this message board, that something was going to happen at 980. And I noted that pennant formations typically break out to the upside, and thats exactly what happened.
then looking at the one year chart in mid October, the reverse head and shoulders screamed out at me and with gold at 1000 again, the shoulder, it was clear we were in for a run to 1300.
I never claimed to want it both ways. I have been clear and never wavered.
I like to "feel" the buying pressure. Charts are great and to quote a very wise man...."they're terrific at telling you where you've been".
B/M's in SoCal still selling AU over the counter at these prices.
The more D.C. and that circus act fund the public sector jobs welfare plan.....by creating debt that is sold to whomever buys it....the more impetus for gold to run.
Current plan is for more public welfare by creating more debt. Sooner or later the people who produce and make things of value will figure out that this 'plan' has a very bad end game.
<< <i>Can anyone point me towards Galt's Gulch? I heard it was around here somewhere................. >>
Ask Francisco
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Just don't buy into any South American copper mines right before they get nationalized. >>
Whenever I think of Francisco, Hugo Chavez comes to mind. Remember when he nationalized La Cristinas? It's the biggest gold mine in Venezuela owned at the time by Canada’s Crystallex. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Gold is now 11.4% higher than the point where this thread started. Is this just a temporary setback before gold starts a 1-2 year decline as Cohodk suggested or are things now totally different than they were on October 26th? So far, Sinclair's prediction from last January on what would happen after the first week in November has proven to be dead on.
<< <i>Is this just a temporary setback before gold starts a 1-2 year decline as Cohodk suggested or are things now totally different... >>
----------------------------------
It is my "uneducated opinion" that the decline won't BEGIN until 2011. I believe there is still 15 to 18 months of upside and $1500 is a given in that time-frame.
Cohodk made a bad call to be sure on the TITLE of this thread. He could still be proven right in the long run, but many traders would have been already carried out on stretchers following the timing of this forecast. Even if proven right, they would have been wiped out already and not lived to see the fruits of their call unless stopped out mercifully. I've been on the wrong side of trades in the past and it kind of sucks.... MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
and a related story about how the dollar is falling against the Yen.
Good night all.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Readers know I am not here to argue with anyone, and the reality is that every single trader will make bad calls from time to time if they are trading real money.
For clarity's sake on MoneyLA here is some text from when gold was at $1037 in this old thread:
<< <i>MoneyLA wrote << I said it when gold broke through 980 that the breakout of the pennant formation would mean a new bull run; the retreat held at 990 which was another bullish sign. and now the big run up. this is only the start. super gold is here. and that came from me, the guy who said gold WAS in a trading range. ITS NOT ANY MORE. My website reflects today's big move. >>
RedTiger asks: So are you currently in with real money, or buying today or soon? Or still a cheerleader watching from the sidelines? /edit to add: I went to MoneyLA's website (link) and found this:
<< TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE: GOLD ABOVE $1,035 AN OUNCE .... So while the $1,035 price level has been reached, I still want you to be very cautious now. ... For those of you who bought gold three and four years ago at much lower levels -- when I was recommending the purchase of gold on KCAL-TV in Los Angeles -- you are now enjoying some solid long term gains. It never hurts to take profits. Remember, no one ever went broke selling at a profit. >>
Does this mean you are selling the rally? Or are you buying like you said you would on this forum? Or still a cheerleader on the sidelines? Color me confused. >>
A few posts down in the thread, MoneyLA makes his first public announcement on this forum that he is back in gold (at $1037) in his own account since selling at $945. One interpretation is that while MoneyLA was buying gold for his own account, he was telling his readers that profit taking and caution were a good way to proceed. While perhaps sound advice, it certainly could be interpreted as having it both ways. Readers can make up their own minds.
Google may have cached the MoneyLA website as well, but I think the forum quotes are strong enough evidence for this most minor of infractions.
US economy on a extended wartime footing when not accompanied by domestic spending cuts tends to make gold prices rise with a 3 year lag at the starting point with a 5 year lag at the conclusion of the war(s).
Previous example:
Vietnam war escalates in 1965 + 3 year lag = 1968; gold prices begins itois rise. Vietnam war ends in year1975 + 5 year lag = 1980; gold begins to fall in price Afgan/Irag wars begins in 2001 + 3 year lag =2004; gold begins to rise
Future: Afgan/Irag wars end in 2011(?) + 5 year lag = 2015(?) gold begins to fall in price
<< <i>Google may have cached the MoneyLA website as well, but I think the forum quotes are strong enough evidence for this most minor of infractions. >>
Just check Archive.org.... the Internet Archive...
While perhaps sound advice, it certainly could be interpreted as having it both ways. Readers can make up their own minds.
Anyone who "recommends" anything and in the same breath says not to put more than 5% into that investment....................is conflicted at least.
OTOH, Cohodk is tracking the right things and is pretty good at interpreting them. If gold takes a spill and goes sideways for 1 - 1 1/2 years, it'll be only temporary, and he's said as much. So much depends on a timeframe when issuing predictions. Cohodk follows his own trading advice, which must be noted.
Personally, I no longer trade for flash profits, and that's part of my strategy. I only buy, until the day that I decide to start selling. I think that a vastly "overweighted" physical position in pms (plus some cash) is simply the best deployment in terms of risk/reward.
I've never taken a position quite like this, and let me tell you, I feel as financially secure as I ever have. No leverage at all, but I can live with that. I just don't intend to get whipsawed out of my position. When the financial and political winds start to change, I will re-evaluate. As far as I can determine, it's not 1980 yet by any stretch. It's still only Year 1 in Carter's Term.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Does anyone here believe that this Congress, Fed and Prez will cut spending, printing and dithering? Until I see some leadership from any one of these we are going see gold trend higher. If health care passes then the dollar will go down further and gold higher. If it doesn't pass then the correction I see is just a buying op for gold...jmo.
Comments
The day gold reached $1100/oz, or not? It couldn't be setup better, could it?
<< <i>So does the stock market cliche apply to the gold market, "never short a dull market?" >>
I think that applies. Too risky to do this with gold in this environment. Either be long or be out of the market, but shorting is dangerous.
Just think, Obama or Geithner could come out tomorrow and make an announcement about a drastic economic measure and gold could go up $100 instantly. You don't want to be on the wrong end of that.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
I just don't have the guts to short gold right now. Visiting a friendly small BM the other day.....'32 ounces in over the counter..........34 ounces out over the counter'. Even in recession torn So Cal............there is ample buying right now by people spreading their assets around.
If the current U.S. political & Fed situation continues...gold will be seen just as another form of insurance....THERE IF YOU NEED IT.
<< <i>
Is there a price point where you reverse the negative frame and start trading from the long side
At this time I have no price point at which I would reverse my position as I still have very high confidence in my call. Tomorrow maybe the most important day for gold for the next year. >>
Even though Cohodk refused to give a stop loss price, even when pressed, many prudent position traders would take their 10% hit and move on. The initial post was around gold $1030, 10% is right here, right now. Trading DZZ (double short gold ETF), it is more like a 20% to 25% loss, and definitely time to move on to the next trade. I'm not saying Cohodk actual bought and held DZZ all this time, that isn't at all his style.
I am posting more for the readers, especially the many novices reading along, it is usually more instructive to look at lessons from losing trades than winners. Very few participants take the time to report their losers here on the forum. A novice just reading along might get the idea that trading is almost all winning trades--it ain't.
getting back to gold -- I held off on buying gold (in this current cycle) until there was evidence of a definitive breakout that would run.
there were two key points for this break out and run:
1. the pennant formation with the break out at 980
2. then the reverse head and shoulders pattern which triggered my forecast of 1300, which I made on Oct 20th
there will come a time when this run will end, and a flat period, or new base building period will come. and that could come before the 1300 level is reached-- because we just don't know for certain.
as economists often say... if you are going to forecast, forecast often.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>the #1 philosphy for trading is to cut your losses quickly and let your winners run.
getting back to gold -- I held off on buying gold (in this current cycle) until there was evidence of a definitive breakout that would run.
there were two key points for this break out and run:
1. the pennant formation with the break out at 980
2. then the reverse head and shoulders pattern which triggered my forecast of 1300, which I made on Oct 20th
there will come a time when this run will end, and a flat period, or new base building period will come. and that could come before the 1300 level is reached-- because we just don't know for certain.
as economists often say... if you are going to forecast, forecast often. >>
So, I haven't checked, have you disclosed your position on your website? Disclosure is pretty much standard procedure for public figures now (it wasn't a few years ago).
MoneyLA has fully disclosed that he recommends no more than 5% of one's assets be invested in gold.
In essence, he recommends that 95% or more of one's assets should not be in gold.
Might as well throw darts at a page from the WSJ.
I knew it would happen.
As I stated at the beginning, I may be a little premature, as was proven, but am still holding to my opinion that gold will end 2010 lower than 2009. I am not expecting a bloodbath, or $600 gold, just a dead (ie, traders) market for the next 18 months.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I believe in 5% for gold and other metals because I dont put "all my eggs in one basket." and while gold might be doing well, OTHER investments might also do well now.
in another thread I mentioned shares of LVS and BYD which are up more than 100% in the past 52 weeks, while gold is up about 55% in the past 52 weeks.
gold is not necessarily the only winner.
by the same token, I dont want to risk having too much in gold in case gold should start going down. there is no "lock" on profits with gold. it could drop (though I believe gold now has a floor at 1,000).
if you want to put more in gold and silver and platinum, then be my guest and best of luck.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
-Another round number was broken - $1100
-Gold is now in its best seasonal period: November-May.
-The longer term uptrend channel line formed by the parallel of the 2006 and 2008 lows was broken above. Next upper trend line is in the $1300+ range. That's the line joined by the 2007 and 2008 highs.
-Ron Rosen's bearish 2 year ABC count was for all intensive purposes toasted at $1135 gold. This also coincides with a pivot point. Bullish counts have the most likelihood at the moment.
-More central banks are stepping up to the bar to buy gold.
-GSR appears to be strengthening in favor of the metals. Silver coming back to life with a new yearly high adds another bullish element to the mix.
I think MoneyLA has it right.....except for the 5% part.
roadrunner
Ah the conviction of being right. You can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make him drink.
I knew it would happen.
Unless you shove his head underwater and suck on his axxhole/.
A novel approach, I will admit.
I knew it would happen.
The longer term uptrend channel line formed by the parallel of the 2006 and 2008 lows was broken above. Next upper trend line is in the $1300+ range. That's the line joined by the 2007 and 2008 highs.
Im not following this. Can you provide a chart?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>You can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make him drink.
Unless you shove his head underwater and suck on his axxhole/. >>
Sounds distasteful.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>.....except for the 5% part. roadrunner >>
I can't even give you a number within 5%....
I guess the controversy now is whether or not you should limit your investment in precious metals, gold in particular, to 5%.
I am not going to criticize any of you for investing more than 5% right now, because gold is hot and you can ride the market even higher. it's definitely in a strong up trend.
but you are more educated than average or typical investors. you can accept the risk for the greater reward of investing more than 5% in gold.
I probably could invest more than 5% in precious metals as well, because I also share your optimism.
but Ive had a long term plan that Ive always stuck to, and it has always done well for me.
I dont mind buying in "late" and I don't mind selling out "early." my goal is to catch the big move. I don't care if I miss the early profits, and I don't mind if someone makes a little more than I do... as long as I don't lose.
when you try to get it all, you have to worry about this old saying: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
roadrunner
In the early years, that bought 3 or even more $20 gold coins every quarter.
Now I can only get 1/10 oz gold coins/patterns on my $250 quarterly budget.
In the early years, that bought 3 or even more $20 gold coins every quarter.
Now I can only get 1/10 oz gold coins/patterns on my $250 quarterly budget.
Oreville, you've just given the perfect example of averaging-in over time.
I knew it would happen.
As for 5%, 10%, 20%, whatever, I have never argued percentages or asset allocations. Those on this forum are certainly going to skew higher than average folks. There is a lot of life circumstance that will factor into the percentage, as well as investment personality, investment history, and a thousand other factors.
I would not do that. And I wouldnt ask you to make public your assets or investments or net worth either.
Only public officials need to reveal things like tax returns. I am not a public official.
I may be on TV, but I am a private citizen. And I am not selling anything. My website is free to access. I do not sell any investment plan or strategy.
My TV shows are paid for by sponsors.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
I believe in 5% for gold and other metals because I dont put "all my eggs in one basket." and while gold might be doing well, OTHER investments might also do well now.
in another thread I mentioned shares of LVS and BYD which are up more than 100% in the past 52 weeks, while gold is up about 55% in the past 52 weeks>>
Cherry picking two random stocks to illustrate your point is well, frankly (pause) weak when we are talking about an entire asset class like gold. You are actually making our case for us. A 5% holding in an asset class is not a hedge, not a point of view,not a statement and it barely qualifies it as a position imo. It's a no impact position meaning you will never feel it one way or the other. You may as well buy a couple more stocks with that 5% and really spin the wheel
Since you brought up the past 52 weeks here is a snapshot-----
S&P 500 +27.03%
Oil (USO) -12.75%
Gold (GLD) +52.29%
Silver (SLV) +92.41%
U.S. Dollar -13.15%
Euro +17.54%
HUI +155.07%
Why just dip your toes in when the water is just fine? Also, didn't you enter into gold just in the last inning therefore missing most of that move above?
You said, "I believe in 5% for gold and other metals because I dont put "all my eggs in one basket."
Well how do you like them eggs?
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
1) It's not enough to matter.
2) I would have to have 19 other good ideas, for the other 95% of the portfolio.
Now, if I had $55 million, then it just wouldn't matter either way.
<< <i>You can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make him drink.
Unless you shove his head underwater and suck on his axxhole/. >>
...from experience.
Yeah, good luck with that.
Here is my response to you, and I hope others will read this and understand exactly where I've been:
Let me make it CLEAR exactly what my position has been on gold going back... way back.
I didnt just become a "bull" in the last few months. And I am going to show you proof of that, with this item, which is dated:
http://www.binioncollection.com/KCAL9.htm
Goldline used an excerpt from this article that I wrote in 2002 (repeat 2002) as part of their promotion. In that article I talk about the new gold rush (and I mentioned Goldline prices in that article), and gold was then at about $350 an ounce.
I announced the new "bull market for gold" in my reports on the noon news on KCAL in 2002, and repeated it many times in 2005 when gold was well under $500 an ounce, and every day when I reported the almost continuing rising price for gold, I repeated that it was a new bull market. This became almost a running joke with the co-anchors.
I was bullish on gold all the way up to about early 2008 when gold failed to bust through 1000. Thats when I became "neutral" and said gold was in a "trading range."
All I did was avoid the "churning" that went on with gold prices until the pennant formation breakout at 980, and then the bull signal was reinforced again Oct 20th with the return to 1000 and the presence of the reverse head and shoulders pattern.
Don't accuse me of being a newcomer to the gold camp. Ive been there for years. But I was safe on the sidelines during the churn and the correction in prices.
Do your own Google search and check the link from the Goldline website. By the way, you will not find the full text of that article because it was written when I owned moredeals.com which was sold and subsequently went dark.
(edited to linkify the web article from 2002)
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
I knew it would happen.
You seem to want to have it both ways. That's just my opinion. I'm wrong sometimes. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
But when I saw the big pennant formation with the tip at 980 I noted here, on this message board, that something was going to happen at 980. And I noted that pennant formations typically break out to the upside, and thats exactly what happened.
then looking at the one year chart in mid October, the reverse head and shoulders screamed out at me and with gold at 1000 again, the shoulder, it was clear we were in for a run to 1300.
I never claimed to want it both ways. I have been clear and never wavered.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
B/M's in SoCal still selling AU over the counter at these prices.
The more D.C. and that circus act fund the public sector jobs welfare plan.....by creating debt that is sold to whomever buys it....the more impetus for gold to run.
Current plan is for more public welfare by creating more debt. Sooner or later the people who produce and make things of value will figure out that this 'plan' has a very bad end game.
they may even be among those who precipitate the end game and set it right again. Who is John Galt?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Can anyone point me towards Galt's Gulch? I heard it was around here somewhere................. >>
Ask Francisco
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
MJ
Just don't buy into any South American copper mines right before they get nationalized.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Ask Francisco
MJ
Just don't buy into any South American copper mines right before they get nationalized.
Whenever I think of Francisco, Hugo Chavez comes to mind. Remember when he nationalized La Cristinas? It's the biggest gold mine in Venezuela owned at the time by Canada’s Crystallex.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
roadrunner
<< <i>Is this just a temporary setback before gold starts a 1-2 year decline as Cohodk suggested or are things now totally different... >>
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It is my "uneducated opinion" that the decline won't BEGIN until 2011. I believe there is still 15 to 18 months of upside and $1500 is a given in that time-frame.
Edited to close quotation marks.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
linky
and a related story about how the dollar is falling against the Yen.
Good night all.
For clarity's sake on MoneyLA here is some text from when gold was at $1037 in this old thread:
http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=42&threadid=742520&highlight_key=y&keyword1=cautious
link
<< <i>MoneyLA wrote << I said it when gold broke through 980 that the breakout of the pennant formation would mean a new bull run; the retreat held at 990 which was another bullish sign. and now the big run up. this is only the start. super gold is here. and that came from me, the guy who said gold WAS in a trading range. ITS NOT ANY MORE. My website reflects today's big move. >>
RedTiger asks:
So are you currently in with real money, or buying today or soon? Or still a cheerleader watching from the sidelines? /edit to add: I went to MoneyLA's website (link) and found this:
<< TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE: GOLD ABOVE $1,035 AN OUNCE .... So while the $1,035 price level has been reached, I still want you to be very cautious now. ... For those of you who bought gold three and four years ago at much lower levels -- when I was recommending the purchase of gold on KCAL-TV in Los Angeles -- you are now enjoying some solid long term gains. It never hurts to take profits. Remember, no one ever went broke selling at a profit. >>
Does this mean you are selling the rally? Or are you buying like you said you would on this forum? Or still a cheerleader on the sidelines? Color me confused. >>
A few posts down in the thread, MoneyLA makes his first public announcement on this forum that he is back in gold (at $1037) in his own account since selling at $945. One interpretation is that while MoneyLA was buying gold for his own account, he was telling his readers that profit taking and caution were a good way to proceed. While perhaps sound advice, it certainly could be interpreted as having it both ways. Readers can make up their own minds.
Google may have cached the MoneyLA website as well, but I think the forum quotes are strong enough evidence for this most minor of infractions.
US economy on a extended wartime footing when not accompanied by domestic spending cuts tends to make gold prices rise with a 3 year lag at the starting point with a 5 year lag at the conclusion of the war(s).
Previous example:
Vietnam war escalates in 1965 + 3 year lag = 1968; gold prices begins itois rise.
Vietnam war ends in year1975 + 5 year lag = 1980; gold begins to fall in price
Afgan/Irag wars begins in 2001 + 3 year lag =2004; gold begins to rise
Future:
Afgan/Irag wars end in 2011(?) + 5 year lag = 2015(?) gold begins to fall in price
<< <i>Google may have cached the MoneyLA website as well, but I think the forum quotes are strong enough evidence for this most minor of infractions. >>
Just check Archive.org.... the Internet Archive...
Anyone who "recommends" anything and in the same breath says not to put more than 5% into that investment....................is conflicted at least.
OTOH, Cohodk is tracking the right things and is pretty good at interpreting them. If gold takes a spill and goes sideways for 1 - 1 1/2 years, it'll be only temporary, and he's said as much. So much depends on a timeframe when issuing predictions. Cohodk follows his own trading advice, which must be noted.
Personally, I no longer trade for flash profits, and that's part of my strategy. I only buy, until the day that I decide to start selling. I think that a vastly "overweighted" physical position in pms (plus some cash) is simply the best deployment in terms of risk/reward.
I've never taken a position quite like this, and let me tell you, I feel as financially secure as I ever have. No leverage at all, but I can live with that. I just don't intend to get whipsawed out of my position. When the financial and political winds start to change, I will re-evaluate. As far as I can determine, it's not 1980 yet by any stretch. It's still only Year 1 in Carter's Term.
I knew it would happen.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
?? Happy Thanksgiving, Alan. If I were going to attack someone personally, I wouldn't disguise it.
I knew it would happen.
If health care passes then the dollar will go down further and gold higher. If it doesn't pass then the correction I see is just a buying op for gold...jmo.