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Saw David Morgan tonight
Norseman88
Posts: 962
The local coin dealer invited David Morgan the Silver guru to speak at the Ramada tonight and since we were rained out I decided to make the trip to see him.
It was a very informative meeting and he had some interesting things to say about all the precious metals but his main focus was on Silver.
According to him the Silver market will go parabolic sometime between 2012-2014 exceeding $100 an oz.
Also the stock market is due for a nasty selloff which ultimately could send the dow to 4,000.
He predicted that eventually there would be one world currency with the dollar inflated down in value severely, in other words a currency crisis for the dollar.
After the run up in price Silver and the other precious metals will significantly fall in price, however by 2020 the mines will have exhausted much of the supply which should cause another big run up in prices.
The main reason for a huge run up in prices going forward will not be the naked shorts squeezed out of their position like Ted Butler thinks but rather huge demand for physical Silver by people wary of fiat currency worldwide not just in the United States. Silver is the logical choice for these people as it is the only affordable precious metal.
I asked him where a good place would be to put your money after selling my Silver and he responded the stock market especially small cap stocks as the stock market will be at extremely oversold levels.
There's more but I can't remember all of it right now and it's time for bed, I did buy a copy of his book Get The Skinny On Silver Investing for $10 and he signed it, so a good night along with some food and refreshments.
It was a very informative meeting and he had some interesting things to say about all the precious metals but his main focus was on Silver.
According to him the Silver market will go parabolic sometime between 2012-2014 exceeding $100 an oz.
Also the stock market is due for a nasty selloff which ultimately could send the dow to 4,000.
He predicted that eventually there would be one world currency with the dollar inflated down in value severely, in other words a currency crisis for the dollar.
After the run up in price Silver and the other precious metals will significantly fall in price, however by 2020 the mines will have exhausted much of the supply which should cause another big run up in prices.
The main reason for a huge run up in prices going forward will not be the naked shorts squeezed out of their position like Ted Butler thinks but rather huge demand for physical Silver by people wary of fiat currency worldwide not just in the United States. Silver is the logical choice for these people as it is the only affordable precious metal.
I asked him where a good place would be to put your money after selling my Silver and he responded the stock market especially small cap stocks as the stock market will be at extremely oversold levels.
There's more but I can't remember all of it right now and it's time for bed, I did buy a copy of his book Get The Skinny On Silver Investing for $10 and he signed it, so a good night along with some food and refreshments.
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Did you mention he was there to sell his book?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Sounds like the IDEAL scenerio!! When does the ideal scenerio ever come to fruition? >>
Sounds like you want to shoot the messenger, I'm just repeating what was presented.
I know you are a huge stock market guy, David Morgan invests alot of his money in stocks as do I but obviously you've been investing long enough to know that stocks don't always go up no matter how hard the cheerleaders at CNBC want them to.
He also said to redeploy your money into the stock market after Silver has had it's run so I don't see the anti stock bias that you do.
Can you read or not, the time frame for the PM's blowoff is 2012-2014, as for the selloff in stocks I've felt for awhile now that they should've started selling off sometime in late September or early October. I do find it odd that the stock market keeps rolling along with no correction through the two worst months historically for the market while insiders are dumping their stock holdings, if this market was for real then why are insiders dumping so much stock?? Also why is the market leaping up the way it is with so much money on the sidelines, could there be money from the Fed being deployed in equities via GS, JPM, etc. to make the economy appear much better than it really is??
He gave no specific timeframe for Dow 4,000 but did say that the stock market was way overdue for a nasty selloff and it could start as soon as Monday or possibly next year but he did say he felt it would come soon.
Another thing I forgot was he advised not to sell your physical Silver when the time comes where Silver is in a bubble but rather use put options to protect yourself, this way you still have your Silver because in the future physical Silver might be hard to aquire in any significant quantity.
The really big message that I got from his presentation was we are in the early stages of a currency crisis not only here but worldwide so don't look to convert your dollars to the Euro, Yen or even a resource rich country such as Canada. If you want to protect yourself you really need to hold 15-20% of your net worth in PM's preferably Silver as it offers the most upside, however do not pour most of your wealth into PM's. He also said that real estate such as farmland would be a good place to have some of your net worth.
He didn't say it but I suspect that some of the high end housing in Arizona, Florida, etc. might be a good place to invest some of your money as that market has plummeted in value, when you can buy things at 20-30% of their former price I would say that is a great buy.
I'm asking would they tighten up to say 20 to 1 or stay like now and we will have $6,000oz gold.
I'd guess if Dow was $4,000 that's where gold would be a ounce.
I don't think what was presented is an ideal scenario, but the only scenario. It's not exactly news that the Dow/S&P ratios to gold and silver are in a longer term downtrend with still much more time to go. It's only logicial that the when the commodities surge ends, it will pretty much coincide with the bottoming of equities in general as the reflation trade gets reversed. At that point, just like in 1982, it will be time to go long on stocks once again. Was reading an economic article yesterday and was surprised at just how early this current credit cycle began. I had always thought it really didn't get rolling until the early 1990's recession ended. In fact the credit injection cycle promptly ramped up in 1982, leveled out for a bit around 1990-1993 and then went parabolic in the mid-1990's. 25 years of Bizzarro financing.
roadrunner
The scenerio described it the perfect storm. But unlike the weather, we have the ability to change the course of events. The surest things usually have the lowest reward.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
not 18
100 x 100=10,000
I knew it would happen.
It's appreciated................MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Silver at $100oz what would gold be? Did he mention any ratio's?
I'm asking would they tighten up to say 20 to 1 or stay like now and we will have $6,000oz gold.
I'd guess if Dow was $4,000 that's where gold would be a ounce. >>
Yes he did mention the long term ratio on Gold to Silver should be roughly 10:1 a figure he was very persistent about.
He mentioned someone can't remember his name but a Silver guru from the 70's and 80's whom he likened himself to predicting that someday in the future Gold and Silver would be priced equally but he didn't think this would happen.
He talked about the apathy that people in this country have about what is going on with our politicians, the fed and wall street bankers who are stealing our way of lives the way they are running our country and monetary policy, also the pervasive greed on wall street where you have people in charge lining their pockets at the expense of shareholders.
He was a very good speaker and again he is not some Gold bug who only wants you investing in precious metals just at this point in time Gold and Silver are the only real forms of money and when the time is right back up the truck and load it up with underpriced stocks in good companies.
I also asked him about the PGM's and he indicated that he thinks Palladium will do much better than Platinum in the future which I liked to here since I have a fair amount of it.
Shipping our manufacturing base to RED China is the biggest crime in America! IMO
<< <i>Im not just a stock market guy. As many here know I trade and comment on all assets. Stocks just happen to be the most liquid, predictable and easiest to trade. Frankly I dont care it if the market goes to 20k or 2k, i'll make money in either case. Same as I dont care if gold or silver go up 10 fold or drop 80%, I'll trade them the same. Thats what I am trying to talk about in these threads.
The scenerio described it the perfect storm. But unlike the weather, we have the ability to change the course of events. The surest things usually have the lowest reward. >>
Sorry if I mistook your take on things, it's always good to have an open mind on everything when it comes to investing our money.
As for your reference to the perfect storm it's funny you should say that because those were the exact words he used for the coming currency crisis which eventually will lead to a world currency. Look I found his comments very interesting but also very troubling, I would love to see everything run smoothly in this country but there is no doubt that we live in interesting times to say the least.
<< <i>Sounds like the IDEAL scenerio!! When does the ideal scenerio ever come to fruition?
Did you mention he was there to sell his book?
Well since there were roughly 50 people there and his book is priced at $10 I seriously doubt that he made a killing.
<< <i>He said the stock market would tank, maybe tomorrow or next year? Boy that's some prediction. If the Dow went to 4000, what good would buying real estate do? Who could afford it, even at drastically slashed prices? >>
You raise some valid points, he indicated that at current levels the dow was overpriced and due for a nasty correction which ultimately would see it at 4,000 not necessarily in the next year so maybe it goes down to 8,000 or 7,000 or 6,000 it is impossible to say for certain just that it is overpriced at this point in time. Of course it is possible for markets to overshoot way to far in either direction so who knows maybe the dow keeps rolling along awash in liquidity from the fed.
He had an interesting chart showing the parrobolic rise in money supply yet money available for business and individuals had shrunk so where has the money been deployed???
<< <i>Remember all us J6P's need jobs too!
Shipping our manufacturing base to RED China is the biggest crime in America! IMO
I agree 100%, this country has lost a huge part of it's manufacturing jobs to countries paying low wages with little to no benefits.
How in the world can we ever expect to get out from under the huge amount of debt we've incured with so many good paying jobs lost, where is the income tax going to come from???
<< <i>I've felt that the economy has been running for the last 25 years on people using their homes as ATM's, and now that has been sharply curtailed. Of course I still get the flyers in the mail to "unlock" the wealth in my home, no thank you, it's just about mine and I intend to keep it that way. >>
Very smart indeed, why people do stupid things like that with their home is baffling.
Of course there are situations like medical bills or getting laid off from a good paying job but much of this was done for frivolous reasons.
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
<< <i>Remember all us J6P's need jobs too!
Shipping our manufacturing base to RED China is the biggest crime in America! IMO
Blame the unions. They've created the wage inflation that has caused the USA to be uncompetitive in producing everyday junk. Wage inflation translates into general inflation.
$10 x 50 people =$500. Not bad for a nights work. Im just being skeptical and cynical.
He had an interesting chart showing the parrobolic rise in money supply yet money available for business and individuals had shrunk so where has the money been deployed???
The money went to replace all that was lost in your checking and savings accounts. The charts wont show that money supply went to zero last October.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'll just leave it to GREED on every corner.
Worry about today to heck with tomorrow.
Tomorrow's a coming and it ain't going to be pretty!
BTW - I hope I'm 100% wrong.
<< <i>I don't know exactly who to blame.
I'll just leave it to GREED on every corner.
Worry about today to heck with tomorrow.
Tomorrow's a coming and it ain't going to be pretty!
BTW - I hope I'm 100% wrong. >>
I feel the same way you do, I fear that a monumental $ hit $torm is coming and feel powerless to do anything as TPTB control everything so I have done what I can to protect some of my wealth with PM's, real estate and stocks.
What money supply other than M3 is no longer expanding? M3 has probably turned over but then again it's relationship vs. gold is probably very weak. M0, M1, M2 have much stronger links. Those all are still showing growth, even if no longer expanding at the high rates they once were. The FED has recategorized about half of the demand deposits into time deposits in the M1 series so as to hide them in M0, a series which most people don't even look at. Because of that, one can figure M1 is understated by about $600B.
What the FED pumped into the system last year was equivalent to about a 10 year money supply increase all in one shot. Backing off for a year only still leaves a 9 year dose in the system. The FED did however pump the money supply heavily last month, the largest such bump in many months. How much money are they pumping into the banks and corporations by working outside the standard money supply system? They can do that by buying back agency debt, making currency swaps, etc. plus whatever new tricks we aren't yet privvy to. The FED's reserve account has been growing steadily as well this past year by several hundred Billion dollars. And will adding $1 TRILLION in TBonds into the system each year offset any deceleration in M0,1,2,3 trends? If the FED is buying half of the bond auctions isn't it the case that the monetization is not reflected in published money stocks?
M1, M2, M3 graphs
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>Remember all us J6P's need jobs too!
Shipping our manufacturing base to RED China is the biggest crime in America! IMO
Blame the unions. They've created the wage inflation that has caused the USA to be uncompetitive in producing everyday junk. Wage inflation translates into general inflation.
$10 x 50 people =$500. Not bad for a nights work. Im just being skeptical and cynical.
He had an interesting chart showing the parrobolic rise in money supply yet money available for business and individuals had shrunk so where has the money been deployed???
The money went to replace all that was lost in your checking and savings accounts. The charts wont show that money supply went to zero last October. >>
Hey that's OK be skeptical all you want.
I'm not saying I believe everything he said but it did give me a chance to see him in person and judge whether or not he was believable or not and from what I saw he seemed sincere in his beliefs.
I'm not saying I liked everything he had to say but it was very informative.