new forecast

MoneyLA

and I put this on my website so Im on the record...

the break out from the reverse head and shoulders on the 5 year chart could mean a run to $1,300.

jmski52

Alan, your forecast does state things definitively, so I applaud that. However, I continue to think that your advice of not buying more than 5% gold or silver does not serve your readers as well as you might believe.

If the dollar drops 10%, and gold goes up 10% and your portfolio consists of 95% dollar-denominated assets, and 5% gold - your advice will yield an 9% loss. Some hedge you have there. I guess it's better than a 10% loss.

You are calling for a +20% rise, and only recommending a 5% weighting. The other 95% of your recommended portfolio is in what? That is 20 times more important than your gold weighting.

Since the stock market is up over 50% now, I anticipate more than a 10% correction. If your readers aren't in gold, then they are in something else. What would you have them do with the other 95%?

These things don't happen in a vacuum. There's a reason gold is going up, and to suggest a 5% weighing in gold is basically saying that the status quo will prevail. Maybe so, but I think not. There's is way too much gross mismanagement of the financial system and the economy going on for things to magically self-correct.

I know you mean well. However, such staid advice will not have any positive impact on people's finances. Unless people know what factors are causing you to recommend even 5% in gold, all you are doing is saying "buy some gold because the technical charts say that it's going up". What are we, some $65 Trillion in unfunded liabilities, mostly medicare & social security? That's what you might want to consider, and that's what you might start educating your readers about.

I'm not telling you to get into the market forecasting business. I don't think that's your intent. But, I do think that you would do your readers and listeners a service by exploring what makes various components in the economy tick, and how that impacts their investment decisions. You have the platform, and your intent is to help, I know it.

Based on your forecast, I'm bumping up my gold holdings!! Ye-ha!!

JMHO.

MoneyLA

thanks jmski. but while I think gold is strong, I still can't advocate anything more than a 5% position for average investors... who are my readers and when I was on the news were also my viewers.

you are different. you know the gold market and you are willing to accept the risk of it.

for my general audience I always have to promote the approach of diversification and not putting all your eggs, or too many eggs, in one basket.

once we break 1100, the move to 1300 might come very quickly. however, it still might take six months to reach 1300.

I was very specific in my call for the breakout at 980 and it happened. I am very specific in this call.

As Ive said many times, I will make a move when a move is coming, and I dont take a stand and wait approach.

cohodk

The stock market seems to have a direct corrolation to the dollar. Eventually it will hurt stocks, but for now, a 10% drop in the dollar could easily mean a 20+% gain in stocks. So stocks could still easily outperform gold.

KUCH

You are saying buy gold.

Gold Maple Leaf at $1,108.00 here in town. Would you buy at that price?

MoneyLA

I can't tell you to buy. Whether you buy is a personal decision based on your own investment strategy.

but my technical analysis says gold is going higher, and 1300 is my target based on the charts.

roadrunner

$1300 is consistent with what others have posted during the first half of this year after $1000 was rebroken and $863 was left in the dust during April. That equated roughly to tracing out an IH&S or stacking the multi-month triangle. Once gold was falling back into the low $900's for the 2nd time talk of the target sort of waned. I fully agree that $1300 could come as early as next month or as late as May.

my general audience I always have to promote the approach of diversification and not putting all your eggs, or too many eggs, in one basket.

With 5% in gold, it begs the question that if a reader is "diversified" where is the other 95%? Certainly it's not spread out into 5% stocks, 5% bonds, 5% gold, 5% cash, 5% real estate, 5% commodities, 5% energy, 5% foreign currencies, etc.? At 40% we're almost out of options. So where does the other 60% go? Probably stocks and cash. Diversification these days still tends to mean most everything in stocks, bonds, and/or cash.

If gold does move up 10%, the gold stocks will tend to move up 20-30%. That would be a better comparison to how they perform against the stock market. Gold bullion on its own is not leveraged. Most treat physical gold as a CD or bank account to maintain value during times when confidence in the currency or govt. is lacking.

Jim Willie made a comment today that he fully expects GLD to trade at a 25% discount to gold as confidence questions of gold backing in GLD continue to surface. If real audits discover that the gold isn't all there the price may fall to a 50% discount. As lawsuits increase the fund may be dissolved. The Comex is currently allowing GLD shares to be used to balance new Comex short contracts rather than properly allocated bullion gold. Also newsworthy this past week is that the CME is now allowing gold to be used as margin for trading with JPM holding the gold in London. This is just another way of saying gold is money and the boyz need all they can get asap.

roadrunner

Wolf359

Anyone get Bob Chapman's newsletter? There's more on GLD and SLV from what I heard.

Bear

If we are in for a strong dose of inflation, wouldn't

you think that TIPS would be the way to go?

Wolf359

I didn't say it, but great post as always RR.

roadrunner

I read Chapman's latest and nothing in there about GLD or SLV. But it was a good read nonetheless. If someone has a link to his discussion on GLD I'd love to see it.

A funny story here on GLD in Thomson's latest.

GLD - read pts 15-18

TIPS?

Considering Tips are linked to the CPI whose inaccuracy is well documented, they would be one of the last things I would invest in for inflation protection. Oil, PM's, and commodity funds/stocks/etc. would be my first choice. Even foreign currencies such as the Aussie and Cando would be a better bet imo since those currencies tend to run counter the USD and are countries strong on natural resource investments.

40% of the CPI is linked to housing/rents. Another 10% or more is in durable goods, autos, clothing, etc. Those are all things that will be stagnant for quite some time. Unfortunately oil, commodities, and PM's are not well represented in the CPI. Neither are many of the costs that consumers experience every day...such as taxes, fees, etc. The govt has used tricks like substitution effects and quality factors to water down the CPI. A better terminology would be the constant price index. With 50% or more of the CPI basically fixed or falling don't count on the CPI/Tips to bail you out. A homeowner whose home price is falling is an off set to those things which are rising (food, education, insurance, health care, etc.). But the homeowner only sees the higher prices for the latter. He doesn't get anything for his home price/imputed rent falling in value....at least not until the next assessment.

Yeah, the price of milk is down, possibly because of all the politics and subsidies inherent in the dairy industry. And we know the price of Alan's haircuts dropped $2 as well. But the price of meats, fresh veggies, bread, and fresh fruits seems to be as high or higher than ever. And of course the price of junk food in all its varied forms is always on the rise (pizza, fast food, candy, gum, snack packs, chips, dip, packaged desserts, cookies, etc.). Toss in tobacco and alcohol into that mix as well. When a Hostess Twinkie comes down in price, let me know. At that point I will join the deflation bandwagon in things that are consumed daily.

If anyone is a firm believer in the CPI....then you should be a believer in TIPS as well. This guy below likes them and thinks they are a current play.

TIPS are breaking out

roadrunner

MoneyLA

I AM EDITING THIS TO CORRECT MY MATH. SEE THE POSTS BELOW FOR WHY THE EDIT WAS NEEDED. REASONING AND PINCIPAL IS THE SAME, ONLY THE NUMBERS ADD UP PROPERLY NOW.

diversification of one's portfolio will vary greatly with age, attitude, available wealth, whether there is a company paid pension, etc.

generally (emphasize: generally) I like the formula of 110 minus your age.

Suppose youre 55. So 110 - 55 would give a portfolio like this:

65 percent cash and cash equivalents such as money market funds, and very, very short term treasuries such as 30 day, 60 day.

the remaining 45% would be mostly stocks. but here you would diversify. You might have some in blue chips (if there are any), some in growth, some in foreign, some in growth sectors (this could include mining or metals if you are so inclined, or computers or airlines). And you might have some in LONG term bonds (but with rates so low, why bother?)

out of the remaining 45% (the stock group) you would divert 5% to the "exotics" including gold, silver, art, collectibles.

Now that is only ONE diversification plan. Someone with no risk tolerance would put all in govt insured bank accounts and short term treasuries. While someone with a lot of risk tolerance might put it all in stocks and gold and cucumber futures.

THERE IS NO RIGHT FORMULA, there is only the formula that is right FOR YOU.

Because you participate in this forum, a larger percentage in the metals is right for you. And that's okay with me, because you accept the risk/reward possibilities.

gsa1fan

"cucumber futures"? How about Apple, Jim Cramer was real high on Apple on the TV today.

meluaufeet

Thanks for your posts MoneyLA...

Just wondering why physical pm's (bullion) are not part of the 55% 'cash' holdings... I understand miners/producers being part of the 'stock' holdings.

I understand the difference between bullion and 'numismatics'.

I understand volatility.

Thanks

brokeer

So the percentage of cash in your portfolio goes down as your age goes up? Doesn't make sense to me to be increasing your percentage in stocks when you should not even be buying green bananas. Or maybe I have it backwards.

MoneyLA

brokeer, youre right, I goofed.

65% cash is correct and I wrote 55%

the way I wrote it above 55 +45 = 100

but I was using 110, so 65% cash + 45% (stocks and other stuff) = 110%

thanks for the catch.

MoneyLA

meluaufeet... thanks for the question.

you can't include precious metals in cash because, simply, metals are not cash.

metals are an investment and while some will argue that metals are totally liquid, the reality is they are not totally liquid. if you think they are totally liquid, then try paying for a bag of groceries with a few ounces of silver and let me know what happens.

brokeer

MoneyLA, I am still confused. 110 - 55 still =55.
Maybe if your age was not half the starting number it would be clearer. So if someone is 70: 110-70 = 40 and that would be the percentage allocated to stocks (not cash). That way the stocks percentage decreases with age.

That still sounds like too much to me for a 70yr old. Maybe 100 minus your age = 30% stocks seems more conservative. ??

Also:
"but I was using 110, so 65% cash + 45% (stocks and other stuff) = 110%"
How can you have 110% of something? (Unless your Yogi Berra - 90% of the game is half mental. )

I hope I got that right. Sorry to be a pest.

mhammerman

"if you think they are totally liquid, then try paying for a bag of groceries with a few ounces of silver and let me know what happens."

Interesting postulation/question...so if you get a cart of groceries and the bill comes to $100 at the check out stand and you throw 6 ASEs on the counter and the clerk calls the manager then what will he say? I'd guess that there's a fairly good chance that he'll take it right there. Now he might throw his own Ben into the daily cash drawer but what would you do in that case...bet those ASEs find a home and you walk out with your groceries huh?

cohodk

Jim Cramer was real high


Yeah, thats about right. LOL

gsa1fan

He also mentioned "gold coins" to be 10% of your portfolio. Not paper gold.

Justacommeman

<<you can't include precious metals in cash because, simply, metals are not cash.

metals are an investment and while some will argue that metals are totally liquid, the reality is they are not totally liquid. if you think they are totally liquid, then try paying for a bag of groceries with a few ounces of silver and let me know what happens>>

No arguing

You are just wrong about this.........

This summer I had my deck repaired.

The bill was $2000.

I offered two ounces of gold.

Gold was trading at $900.

The offer was QUICKLY accepted

My cost average on gold at the time was $372.

So, one I got a discount to cash

and two, I actually only paid $744 for $2000 worth of work


MJ

brokeer

I would tend to come down on the side of classifying gold as cash for two reasons. It is easily converted to cash at any coin store and it does not pay any interest or dividends like stocks or bonds. It does preserve purchasing power better than cash however. Also it is fully paid for and not a liability to anyone else and like cash it is "out of the system" if you consider cash as a non-performing asset.

MoneyLA

brokeer, youre not a pest... Im stupid. I cant do my own math. Thats what I get for going to the computer in the middle of the night.

let me see if I can get it straight now (its 11-am)

start with the number 110.
subtract your age. if youre 55, that leaves 55.

so 55% of your assets should be in stocks and other investments.
that is the "aggressive formula."

the "less aggressive formula" is using 100. (not 110)
subtract your age from 100, if youre 55, that leaves 45 and 45% of your assets should be in stocks and other investments.

the point is, the further you are from 100 or 110 should be the percentage in stocks and other investments.

Now I got it. thanks for putting up with my senior moment... Im older than 55.

MoneyLA

regarding gold as cash... yes, some gold is cash.

a one ounce american eagle is fifty dollars. walk into a bank to pay your mortgage and the bank is obligated to give you fifty dollars for your one ounce american eage.

gold bullion is not cash. if you walked into a bank with a krugerrand the bank will not accept it. but if you find someone willing to barter your gold bullion for goods and services good for you... because gold bullion is not "legal tender for all debts public and private."

that one ounce american eagle which is stamped $50 is legal tender for all debts public and private.

of course this is a precious metals forum and 9 out of 10 of you will say Im wrong.

Justacommeman

In a few years 10 out 10 maybe saying it in all forums.

I hope not.

5% position in gold is not protecting yourself, your family, your loved ones or your listeners

5% is nothing

JMO

MJ

brokeer

<< <i>regarding gold as cash... yes, some gold is cash.

a one ounce american eagle is fifty dollars. walk into a bank to pay your mortgage and the bank is obligated to give you fifty dollars for your one ounce american eage.

gold bullion is not cash. if you walked into a bank with a krugerrand the bank will not accept it. but if you find someone willing to barter your gold bullion for goods and services good for you... because gold bullion is not "legal tender for all debts public and private."

that one ounce american eagle which is stamped $50 is legal tender for all debts public and private.

of course this is a precious metals forum and 9 out of 10 of you will say Im wrong. >>



MoneyLA, I hope you are not seriously suggesting people take an american gold eagle to the bank and get $50 for it? I thought you are trying to protect peoples money. Telling them they can get $50 for a AGE is ripping them off. I hope no one acts on this idea. Shouldn't you tell them that they can get $15 OVER spot for it at a coin store instead? Why would you tell them to go to a bank and get $50 when they can get $1073 at a coin store? That is very poor advice. I know it says $50 legal tender but that is total BS and anyone that does that is a fool. The coin store will also give you $1073 for a gold bullion coin so you don't have to worry about trying to barter it either.

My point was that gold is liquid, that you can get cash for it THE SAME DAY you sell it, not wait a week for a check and another week before it clears. And since it doesn't pay interest, is full paid for, and "out of the system", it is as (non)productive as cash and should be in the same category for those reasons. Gold has more in common with cash than with stocks or bonds.

meluaufeet

MoneyLA... thanks for your response. I made the mistake of using the word 'cash' instead of 'cash equilvalent'. That was an error. IT IS FINE WITH ME IF YOU BELIEVE THAT GOLD (BULLION) IS NEITHER CASH OR A CASH EQUILVALENT... that is a clear answer in my book. Certainly a clear answer to my question. We probably differ on why that is the case... but that conversation should not change your belief or your basic formula...

I think we would agree that if you are holding 5% in 'gold' as a HEDGE... that miner/producer stocks would be better than bullion in that those stocks/warrants, etc. have leverage based on spot... and if one prefers to hold bullion instead... they may have to increase their position above 5%.

Ok... enough said (I hope)...

Back to 'cash'... do you vision this area to be used as a zero sum game... ie say 50% USD and 50% EURO, or do you believe this should be all dollar based?

My basic problem is that we must trust the FED to do their job (price stability and full employment); in my mind they have failed to do so.

We all know this is a pm forum... we won't agree at times... as long as we understand this we can all move forward, and hopefully learn along the way.

PS: Your thoughts on real estate (what if interest credit was removed... yes, it is possible).

fc

<< <i>In a few years 10 out 10 maybe saying it in all forums.

I hope not.

5% position in gold is not protecting yourself, your family, your loved ones or your listeners

5% is nothing

JMO

MJ >>



i thought the 5% of actual metal was more for an emergency crisis time frame to get
you through the unknown. Not actually considered an investment.

so if you were worth a million dollars you would have 50000 in gold/silver tucked away
somewhere you could get to it in an emergency. it would not really be an investment
per se that you expect to make money on.

coynclecter

so 55% of your assets should be in stocks

I know I can be extreme in my attitude at times but I just dont feel that any mainstream Wall Street stock is a fair deal for the future. We are all told that buy and hold does not work and the trading game is rigged. Wall Street guys like GS have programs that can steal your money before your order is placed and then the company execs will take all the profits in bonuses before you get a decent dividend. The watchdogs are all in the pocket of the big guys to rob the little guy.

Does anyone expect a fair return from the thieves of Wall Street?? How? dividends? appreciation? where is the payoff except for the crooks running the system. I dont have a bulk of my money in PMs because I expect some explosive return, its because its one of the only places I feel it wont get stolen and lately I am concerned about the depository in Delaware where it is stored in a seperate box. Will it disappear in a crisis , will the govnt confiscate it. Now I understand why so many distrusted banks.

They robbed it blind, crashed the system and then got the taxpayers to buy them backin and none of the rules have been changed.

NOTHING HAS CHANGED

Reminds me of Marathon Man........IS it safe???

jmski52

if you were worth a million dollars you would have 50000 in gold/silver tucked away somewhere you could get to it in an emergency. it would not really be an investment per se that you expect to make money on.

The percentage of my net worth in pms is way above 5%. More like 75%-80%. Do I expect to make a bunch of money? That's the goal?

Now, that is a rhetorical question. If you call a big pile of debased dollars alot of money, then your answer is "yes, I expect to make alot of money."

If you call x ounces of silver, gold and platinum alot of money when it is worth about the same amount of purchasing power when I sell it as when I bought it, then your answer is "no, I do not expect to make alot of money."

If I wanted to take the risk, I'd be buying some gold juniors sometime soon. In fact, that's what I intend to start nibbling on. On the other hand, alot of money isn't possible when it gets taxed at obscene tax rates, so that too is a moot point. Isn't it?

jmski52

I know I can be extreme in my attitude at times but I just dont feel that any mainstream Wall Street stock is a fair deal for the future. We are all told that buy and hold does not work and the trading game is rigged. Wall Street guys like GS have programs that can steal your money before your order is placed and then the company execs will take all the profits in bonuses before you get a decent dividend. The watchdogs are all in the pocket of the big guys to rob the little guy.

This ought to be drilled into the American People.

I know I can be extreme in my attitude at times but I just dont feel that any mainstream Wall Street stock is a fair deal for the future. We are all told that buy and hold does not work and the trading game is rigged. Wall Street guys like GS have programs that can steal your money before your order is placed and then the company execs will take all the profits in bonuses before you get a decent dividend. The watchdogs are all in the pocket of the big guys to rob the little guy.

I know I can be extreme in my attitude at times but I just dont feel that any mainstream Wall Street stock is a fair deal for the future. We are all told that buy and hold does not work and the trading game is rigged. Wall Street guys like GS have programs that can steal your money before your order is placed and then the company execs will take all the profits in bonuses before you get a decent dividend. The watchdogs are all in the pocket of the big guys to rob the little guy.

Any better? Does anyone understand this yet!!! Good post, coynclecter

Justacommeman

<<i thought the 5% of actual metal was more for an emergency crisis time frame to get
you through the unknown. Not actually considered an investment.

so if you were worth a million dollars you would have 50000 in gold/silver tucked away
somewhere you could get to it in an emergency. it would not really be an investment
per se that you expect to make money on>.

Honestly, I believe 10% is the minimum to have for wealth insurance at ALL times.

Gold, not pm stocks, not GLD, not futures.....the stuff that you can hold

Investments can go from the 11% and up........JMO. MJ

roadrunner

Yeah, I agree, 5% may help get you across the border or out of harm's way in an emergency. It has worked for many people of many different nationalities over the centuries. But as an investment 15% should be the minimum stake in PM's. There is no better cash than PM's. Fiat is not cash. A Federal Reserve Note is a promise to exchange that note for any other note similar to it that you would like. It cannot necessarily always buy you gold or anything else of real value. Today, it still can. Take those FRN's to your neighborhood bank and ask for gold.....you won't get far in most cases. But they can give you five $20's for your $100.

Gold or silver will always be able to buy you something. Now that the CME has come out formally and said they will accept gold for margin accounts (rather than cash) they've as much said that they'd rather have the gold....and the sooner you can get it to JPM the better. Walk into any JPMorgan office, I'd bet they'd take your gold quite readily.

If metals were not cash than the central bankers would not have been hoarding their gold for the past 38 years and extremely secretive in what they have sold/leased, otherwise it would all have been sold off for jewelry by 2001. For something that is not cash the central bankers sure go to great lengths to keep J6P from knowing anything about their gold inventories, transactions, leases, etc. It's just one big govt secret. And I don't think you'd have any trouble buying groceries throughout the world with gold or silver, especially in Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. But you may in fact have trouble with FRN's at times. The US is still holding the fiat torch strongly aloft. But the rest of the world doesn't necessarily share that enthusiasm. Gold has quadrupled since 2001, the dollar has lost 38% of its value. I think we all know which one is currently the real cash.

roadrunner

brokeer

I forgot to add to my previous post: The fact that the government values a one ounce gold eagle at the ridiculously low price of $50 should tell you (SHOUT) all you need to know about how the government really feels about gold.

Bear

The problem with all possible investments is the fact that

the Government can change the rules of the game over night.

Add to this, the plundering by exects of the major insurance

and banking institutions as well as major industrial giants , add

just a pinch of manipulation of financial documents and income

statements and you have a formula for disaster. Nothing is truly

safe today. PMs in paper, Government and corporate bonds, money,

real estate, stocks.......You name it and I tell you all is a monster shell

game of hide the pea. Regulatory institutions are a sham, government

legislatures are all bought and paid for by lobbyists, Unemployment numbers

as well as inflation statistics have been massaged for 30 years.We are in

the eye of an economic storm and the worst may not yet be upon us. About

the only thing you can count on is your own stock of emergency rations and

rolls of extra fluffy toilet paper.

meluaufeet

Here you go Bear...

TP Hoard

MoneyLA

when I said a one ounce eagle was legal tender because it has a $50 face value, I was pointing out this form of gold was indeed monetized. but with gold at 1062 an ounce, anyone using a one ounce eagle to pay $50 of bills would be (to be polite) an idiot.

yes, gold should be a hedge, an insurance policy. 5% is good enough for me. what percentage of your income do you spend on other forms of insurance such as life, health, homeowner, car, liability?

can mining stocks be part of a diversified stock portfolio, in addition to 5% of precious metals? yes. but I wouldnt want all of my stock portfolio in mining stocks the same way I wouldnt want all of it in IBM.

if you want 75% of your portfolio in the metals, good foryou, I wish you luck, and you should especially be watching my technical analysis of the gold market...

cheers.

Justacommeman

<< 5% is good enough for me>>

To each is own. I still think your advise and assest allocation is very, very dated. Actually old school textbook. Very mainstream

<<if you want 75% of your portfolio in the metals, good foryou, I wish you luck, and you should especially be watching my technical analysis of the gold market>>

You flatter yourself, WAY WAY WAY too much.

I strongly suggest you watch Dan Norcini chart

If your not familar with him, he's at JSMineset and he is truly remarkable

He takes it to a different level

Cheers, MJ

coynclecter

<< <i>a one ounce eagle was legal tender because it has a $50 face value >>



So if I have a roll of Eagles distributed from my IRA, would I have to pay tax on the $50 face each or the gold value at 1000 each??

MoneyLA

coyncollector... you raised a VERY interesting point? if you valued them at face value ($50) you would have a loss on your investment, and the taxable distribution would be much less because your distribution is limited to $50 per coin.

I don't know the answer, but darn it's interesting and could save you oodles of tax money.

ya know, you can try anything... and if you dont get caught, you can get away with anything.

theyre not going to throw you in jail for trying. at worst, youll pay a penalty.

wow. I bet "they" never thought of that. or is there something in the gold-IRAs rules that Im not familiar with?? anybody??

mhammerman

"theyre not going to throw you in jail for trying."

Didn't they throw that guy in jail for paying his employees in face value gold and giving them $200/month in $50 AGE's? Hummmm...maybe they just fined the bejezus outta him.

roadrunner

Check the court case of the employer who was paying his employees in AGE's at the $50 face value and looks to be headed to jail. Ultimately he was paying his employees $1 AGE gold/hour. Had he paid his corporation and withholding taxes in gold coin based on valuing AGE's at $50 each he might have had a case. His employees would also have had to pay the govt face value AGE's towards any remaining employee-earned income.

MoneyLA states on his website that his readers received the gold bull back in 2005. Fortunately, I started stacking $20 Libs and Saints in September 2002 when gold was at $315 thanks to Maurice Rosen. That was still early in the first leg up to $450. Sounding the alarm after the bull was almost 4 years old with the first major leg fully completed and gold 65% higher was fashionably late to the party. Sinclair and others had already sounded the main alarm by summer 2002. Readers of the Rosen Numismatic Advisory got their first taste of JPM's $35 TRILL in derivatives and the coming gold run in his late summer 2002 issue. Goldsaint's Gold and Economic thread was in full bloom during the spring of 2004 as gold was assaulting the $400 range. But there weren't many believers in 2004 that $400, $500 or even $600 gold would ever be taken out. Fwiw Sinclair was calling for $1250 gold in summer of 2002. A few years later JS upped it to $1650 based on the worsening foreign debt load. These days he refers it to other top callers who are at multiples of that figure.

roadrunner

MoneyLA

Good for you roadrunner, you got the gold earlier than my forecast. while I came on board later, I came on right when the big surge came.

you came on during the stage 1 cycle (Weinstein) and I caught the stage two breakout.

yes, I didnt get the maximum gains, but I caught the rally when it was real and with little risk.

good for you, and Im happy with what I did. nobody lost following my call. and the profits just kept coming.

and that's the difference between the method you follow and the method I follow. I want to catch the run when its going full steam, and I don't want to buy early and have to wait for the big run.

but as long as you made money and my viewers made money, we should both be happy.

jmski52

So if I have a roll of Eagles distributed from my IRA, would I have to pay tax on the $50 face each or the gold value at 1000 each??


coynclecter, you know the answer. Don't kid yourself. The IRS's position would be that your IRA distribution would be valued at market. Your gain would be the current market value less cost, and it would be computed as of the day of the distribution.

If you didn't declare the distribution, that would be a separate issue. Once they catch you in what they see as a violation, they will be sure to tack on any other issues that they might find upon further scrutiny.

You could always argue the case in court. A good tax attorney is $200/hour, maybe more nowadays. Don't play their game unless you know you will win. I don't think you would stand a chance on this one. JMHO.

Is Geithner your brother-in-law? That would probably make a difference. Or maybe if you work at Goldman Sachs? Other than those two possibilities...............I'd still avoid making it an issue.

meluaufeet

<< <i>coynclecter, you know the answer. Don't kid yourself. The IRS's position would be that your IRA distribution would be valued at market. Your gain would be the current market value less cost, and it would be computed as of the day of the distribution. >>





<< <i>Is Geithner your brother-in-law? That would probably make a difference. Or maybe if you work at Goldman Sachs? Other than those two possibilities...............I'd still avoid making it an issue. >>





I don't think the 'turbo-tax' excuse will work for us common folk...

MoneyLA

I have a different question about the Gold in an IRA issue...

when you put gold in an IRA are you putting actual "approved bullion coins" OR are you making a cash contribution that is converted into "actual bullion coins" ??

AND, when a redemption is made through your IRA trustee, does the trustee give you the "actual bullion coins" or just a paper check?

Ive never put gold into an IRA so I don't know. Anyone???

coynclecter

I know the answer, was just making conversation. Reality is not an issue when dealing with the IRS. Id rather go afoul of a Mexican drug cartel than give the criminals at the IRS something to get me for.

Remember Joe Louis.

Bear

It isn't called>>>>>> "The Infernal Revenue Service">>>> for nothing!

yellowkid

<< <i>If we are in for a strong dose of inflation, wouldn't

you think that TIPS would be the way to go? >>



I think they are a good holding in this economic climate. Expect for a small dip last year, they have had consistent returns, and I agree they are a good play now. I hold a good sized postion (have for 1 1/2 years) and anticipate good returns for the future. I have moved a little more money into PM's( RR must be getting to me) but still don't think they are a good place to put your whole portfolio.

jmski52

RR must be getting to me

It's hard to argue with someone who knows his facts, and rr is one of the best. There are many others on this forum who know their stuff as well. This place is a great resource.