Gold is all over the local news today here in west central Fl.
SUMORADA
Posts: 4,797 ✭
I remember hearing that when J Q Public jumps in, it's time to sell....is that the case this time also? opinions.
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Tonight on eBay a number of the auctions I have been following have been bid up to foolish levels. Common 10 ounce silver bars that usually sell about for $1 an ounce over spot selling for a $2.50 premium over spot. Common post 1982 mint $5 gold commemoratives that usually sell for 4%-6% over melt were selling for up to 15% over melt. Perhaps some new buyers are rushing out to get their PMs.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
it"s when every joe know's you get out i think
like the market a few years ago it was every where then you leave
just ny guess!!!
<< <i>As I write this Drudge's top story is titled "Gold $1500?". He links to a story in the Financial Times.
Tonight on eBay a number of the auctions I have been following have been bid up to foolish levels. Common 10 ounce silver bars that usually sell about for $1 an ounce over spot selling for a $2.50 premium over spot. Common post 1982 mint $5 gold commemoratives that usually sell for 4%-6% over melt were selling for up to 15% over melt. Perhaps some new buyers are rushing out to get their PMs. >>
those spot prices are still sane compared to this time last year!
i am talking an easy 4 dollars over spot per ounce for common bars
and rounds! it was a great time to be a seller getting 20 an ounce.
to time it too closely or you'll miss the best chance. It's better to get
out too early than too late.
This will probably be about the time when financial advisors are tell-
ing people at least 20% of their assets should be in gold in about
six years when gold crashes from 12,000 to 4000.
being told that this is Nirvana, then it is the right time to bail out.
How many times have I seen this frenzy in my 70 years.
Camelot
<< <i>
<< <i>As I write this Drudge's top story is titled "Gold $1500?". He links to a story in the Financial Times.
Tonight on eBay a number of the auctions I have been following have been bid up to foolish levels. Common 10 ounce silver bars that usually sell about for $1 an ounce over spot selling for a $2.50 premium over spot. Common post 1982 mint $5 gold commemoratives that usually sell for 4%-6% over melt were selling for up to 15% over melt. Perhaps some new buyers are rushing out to get their PMs. >>
those spot prices are still sane compared to this time last year!
i am talking an easy 4 dollars over spot per ounce for common bars
and rounds! it was a great time to be a seller getting 20 an ounce. >>
fc, I have seen some exuberant bidding tonight. A 1986 $5 gold commemorative (Statue of Liberty) worth about $255 melt sold for $304.45 ($298.45 plus $6 shipping). A few other common $5 gold commemoratives were bid way beyond normal premiums. Perhaps some folks really had to get their first gold coin.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
<< <i>I remember hearing that when J Q Public jumps in, it's time to sell....is that the case this time also? opinions. >>
JQP was jumping in to real estate for quite a while before it crashed. This is just the beginning. Like real estate in early 2004. RE didn't crash until winder 2005, at least here in Phoenix. That's about 18 months of spectacular gains. You don't want to get out when people *start* getting in, that's when it reall gets going.
You want to get out when the janitor starts talking about the gold or silver he bought.
I've mentioned this phenomenon before and it probably has more truth than many will believe.
Indeed when everybody seems to be buying, there is perhaps no one else left to buy... hence the top in the market.
but just last week, with gold around 1000 an ounce I only saw sellers in B&Ms.
In fact, I think the Joe Lunchbuckets of the world are selling even more now.
Two ways to look at that:
In 1980, the Joe Lunchbuckets of the world were correct, they were selling at the top at around 800-850 despite predictions gold would zoom to 1000 an ounce soon. And at the same time the media was talking about gold going to 1000. The Joe's were right and the predictions of 1000 didnt come true for decades.
today, I still see sellers and not a rush of buyers (if those of you with a B&M see differently, please tell me.) And at the same time the media are reporting all day and all night the high price for gold and predictions that gold will reach 1500 to 5000 an ounce.
Frankly, there are all danger signs.
Now, will Time Magazine have on its cover soon a gold bar shooting to the moon? When that happens, it's all over.
Now the other way to look at the selling by Joe:
Joe is wrong, and the market tends to prove the majority wrong. And that might also be true.
So, I guess you could flip a coin to decide... or flip a Krugerrand if you like.
It is a toss up, but I dont like ALL of the media play that the gold run up is getting, and I dont like all the predictions of gold going to 5000. those are signs of a bubble about to burst.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
Talking about a good time to get in, and the potential for a major move.
It was kinda like a blanket statement, didn't really go into details as to what is driving it.
They must have had 60 seconds to fill in or something.
Why do some people think this analogy only applies to gold but not other assets?
<< <i>Every day in the newspaper and every channel of the news crows about how well the stock market is doing. You hear 10,000 times as many people talking about buying stocks than buying gold. Is it time to sell all your stocks? No, most people want to buy more and almost EVERY analyst says go all in on stocks.
Why do some people think this analogy only applies to gold but not other assets? >>
i think the analogy actually started with stocks during the 1920s.
if i remember right the story goes some investment guy overheard the guy
running the elevator talking about stocks and what to buy. that was his sign
that something was wrong.
I wonder how much of an impact a few thousand or even a few hundred thousand American housewives buying a 1/10 eagle has on global gold prices.
They could, I suppose, put everything they have into a gold ETF. But where would they get the money? Credit cards? 2nd mortgage? Sell that GM stock? They don't have any of those options anymore. Where would they get the money to invest in paper gold that could actually cause a significant bump?
--Severian the Lame
<< <i>Playing Devil's advocate for a moment:
I wonder how much of an impact a few thousand or even a few hundred thousand American housewives buying a 1/10 eagle has on global gold prices.
They could, I suppose, put everything they have into a gold ETF. But where would they get the money? Credit cards? 2nd mortgage? Sell that GM stock? They don't have any of those options anymore. Where would they get the money to invest in paper gold that could actually cause a significant bump? >>
i think the difference is this time around it is not the public bumping up hold it is the hedge funds.
so they have taken their place. i also do not see the general public having a ton of money to invest
in PMs at the moment. But like you said.. it does not take the whole country.. just a few 100 of 1000s.
<< <i>The old saying is that when Time Magazine has "the Bull jumping through the Stock Page" on its cover, THEN its time to get out.
I've mentioned this phenomenon before and it probably has more truth than many will believe.
Indeed when everybody seems to be buying, there is perhaps no one else left to buy... hence the top in the market.
but just last week, with gold around 1000 an ounce I only saw sellers in B&Ms.
In fact, I think the Joe Lunchbuckets of the world are selling even more now.
Two ways to look at that:
In 1980, the Joe Lunchbuckets of the world were correct, they were selling at the top at around 800-850 despite predictions gold would zoom to 1000 an ounce soon. And at the same time the media was talking about gold going to 1000. The Joe's were right and the predictions of 1000 didnt come true for decades.
today, I still see sellers and not a rush of buyers (if those of you with a B&M see differently, please tell me.) And at the same time the media are reporting all day and all night the high price for gold and predictions that gold will reach 1500 to 5000 an ounce.
Frankly, there are all danger signs.
Now, will Time Magazine have on its cover soon a gold bar shooting to the moon? When that happens, it's all over.
Now the other way to look at the selling by Joe:
Joe is wrong, and the market tends to prove the majority wrong. And that might also be true.
So, I guess you could flip a coin to decide... or flip a Krugerrand if you like.
It is a toss up, but I dont like ALL of the media play that the gold run up is getting, and I dont like all the predictions of gold going to 5000. those are signs of a bubble about to burst. >>
Switzerland called and they want their fence back
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The same impact those same people had buying 11 shares of CSCO in 2000.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>I remember hearing that when J Q Public jumps in, it's time to sell....is that the case this time also? opinions. >>
Does J Q Public have a job, good credit and/or a rosy future?
not this time.
i think we will all wish we had bought more and continued to buy for at least two or three years from now
Germany wants thier 3000 tons back from the Fed and arent getting a good response. Dubai and Hong kong want thier gold out of London and seem to only get a busy signal. The B&Ms in China are opening faster than Starbucks and McDonalds , are they buying or selling?
And like proof said, the Real estate boom went on a long time after they claimed it was topping.
One week into a record price does not signal its time to cut and run. Take a little off the table each week and expect some lower days from here as well and some more highs.
Comex shorts are starting to run for cover, what will happen at delivery time?
Were are continuing to see the transfer of wealth. Now the paper printers are buying the silverware and jewelry that J6P has left. The central banks and the billionaires are stocking up and buying with paper that is being printed like crazy
The objective right now is to round up all the gold possible at these lower prices ($800-$1100). That's why the Cash$4Gold themes we've seen for the past year. The sheeple are only most happy to give it up now at give-away prices. The bankers/players, while they are carrying lots of shorts on Comex plus tons of paper gold/silver derivatives, are also the ones stockpiling gold (I don't know where they keep it though...definitely not in Fort Knox or the NYFed Reserve Bank). When the time is right, they'll run the price up to levels hardly believeable today. The game is to end up with all the gold (and hard assets) while ruining the currencies in the process. Then start the arbitrage process all over again when a seat at the table is only given to those holding real wealth: gold, oil, real estate, and other tangible assets. You can be sure that JPM and GS will have seats at the table. Anyone going along for the ride should expect to be whipsawed up and down at every turn. If you thought it was hard to stay in it this past summer, it will only get worse. Most of the newcomers since $980-$1050 will be tossed off on the first major correction. Were JLB, SH, and J6P able to ride the Dow train since March? They wouldn't have any better luck on the gold train.
We aren't even within a sniff of where gold is headed to yet. There will be dozens more runs like we have seen the past week in the months/years ahead. Get used to it. Volatility will run wild...but not because gold is volatile, but because fiat currencies are inherently unstable. They are the drivers, not gold. Gold is a messenger reacting merely to what the fiat tells it to do. It got a bad rap for being the cause of all the 19th century panics when it was unstable currencies that caused all the fuss. You didn't think the bankers wouldn't cheat on the gold standard when no one was looking did you? But at least it kept them honest most of the time...rather than none of the time as has been the case since August 1971.
roadrunner
I'm with cladking on this one. We've only just begun. I'm about ready for another buy, probably in the next few days. I will be rescuing another chunk of our assets from the dollar.
BTW - those guys hawking gold on tv are no different than the scalpers offering to get you in on the government's bailout money. They were bound to pop up when the dollar's plight became known.
A year ago on those ads, they were saying that "gold could double, or triple in value". Then they changed their "come on" when gold dropped. The new tease became, "gold has never dropped to zero".
Well, smack me in the head with a 2 by 4! Hahaha. The lawyers got to them!!!
I knew it would happen.
Uh, did MoneyLA give his "buy signal" yet? Or is he still waffling?
I knew it would happen.
you can read the article in the "gold and silver" section of my website for the details about the pennant formation, or look thru the old posts here.
even our friend roadrunner congratulated me on this call.
regarding the small proit taking on friday... normal and expected and even wanted to keep the rocket from shooting up and then crashing.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
And then, I thought that you waffled after that in a subsequent post. No matter, I hope you bought.
I knew it would happen.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
A number of us have been posting about this kind of stuff since 2004 when few felt it had any validity (housing crash, major bank failures, derivatives blowing up, gold to $1000+, etc.). Pretty much all of that, and a whole lot worse has come to realization in those 5 years. Now we look to the next 5 years. As before, the majority probably won't believe any of it.
For now, the gold craze is about unloading the people's scrap gold not about them buying it. 850 tons of scrap was unloaded worldwide in the first half of 2009, including Ed McMahon's gold toilet bowl with seat and M.C. Hammer's gold chains. That's more production by far than the biggest gold miner in the world. And it's probably on average the cheapest gold available on the market....well other than Barrick's 9.5 MILL ounce paper hedges at $350-$375/oz.
roadrunner
Good observation, roadrunner. This is just the shakedown phase.
I'm becoming convinced that this is a well-managed dollar devaluation, as opposed to an uncontrolled crash. I must admit that this is the best-managed government program that I've seen in a long time, maybe ever. Like I said, I'm becoming convinced. I also believe that this thing has quite a ways to go.
There is a long way to go until the government's massive debt obligations are equilibrated to reality and become manageable once again. This has severe implications for savers, retirees, and creditor nations like China. For our government, all that matters is its own self-preservation. Yeah, there's a few good apples left in the government, but not many.
40 years ago, I never would have guessed that I would put in an honest day's work every day, save diligently my whole life, invest smartly with only a few nominal losses along the way, avoiding all of the major market downturns - only to have a government constantly trying to glomb off as much of my life's savings as they possibly can for their own nefarious and self-serving plans.
I knew it would happen.
Agreed. I thought this shake down phase, and I believe we all anticipated that happening, was indicated by the cash4gold commercials (Superbowl)
but that was just the beginning and we are just now entering the main channel of the shakedown. Now that gold has popped and it's in the news then we are legitimately in the shakedown phase. All spare US consumer gold will be uploaded to the refiners probably over the next few weeks. Interesting that the Chinese decided to advise their citizens to buy gold about a week before the great shakedown began...yeah, their leadership seem to be very good with money. I guess we should have known this was a pretty clear signal.
There may be a second and greater shake down phase by our leaders...not sure of the mechanism just yet but other than obvious wealth in the 401's and ira's, personal metal stashes may start getting the fed eyeball (it did in '33) so one could anticipate that the second wave of the shakedown could be something to do with fed involvement in folks stashes. On the other hand, the gov may not give a hoot about a few guys holding metal but maybe GS or someone like them might need to get PM to pay their promises so maybe they tell the gov to do something to get the metal to them. When you consider that scenario with every CB grabbing what they can right now and the COMEX trying to keep some inventory and with mine productivity at a low ebb, then the GS/gov involvement becomes somewhat plausible particularly if it becomes a hom eland securit y task to keep the paper moving for the good of the USD.
Personal reaction is to just keep the stash, keep accumulating slowly, hold the position. A hundred dollar rise from 950 to 1050 is about a 10% appreciation on metal assets in 30 days...not too bad and it doesn't seem like 1050 is a particularly vulnerable level so where's the risk in holding, especially when you've averaged in for a few years. Now, if it goes to 2000 then we might be talkin' about trimming the herd a little. Then again, the GS's of the world may just declare physical to be equivilent of paper and allow etf shares to be fair exchange for physical promises...of course then you have the problem of how you can charge them for storage fees if you're giving them paper but I guess you could charge management fees instead so it's all good. So, in addition to a retirement voucher for your 401's etc., folk may have to be satisfied with a few etf shares as fair exchange for promises of physical. If that happens then physical may or may not lose its lofty prices. It just brings me back to that most righteous mantra...in times of a flood would you prefer to have a certificate for a boat or a boat. We all know that a flood is coming so it would seem to be a good time to have a boat.
Edited to add picture of boat
<< <i>
40 years ago, I never would have guessed that I would put in an honest day's work every day, save diligently my whole life, invest smartly with only a few nominal losses along the way, avoiding all of the major market downturns - only to have a government constantly trying to glomb off as much of my life's savings as they possibly can for their own nefarious and self-serving plans. >>
Somebody has to pay for the CEO's bloated salaries and golden parachutes. Of course
the good folks who brought us a couple generations of kids who can't read and write
and the bankers who brought us to the brink of collapse still need massive pay that
would make a mullah blanche.
Let's hope things are brighter than they appear but I certainly agree that the debts
can't be paid in 2009 dollars.