"When PM's go up as far and fast as in the last few days, you've got to expect some profit taking. I'm not worried since I'm in it for the long haul."
Well, two things. I want to run the shorters out of the daily bidness and the high levels should discourage a good bit of that and I want those buying paper shares to feel the pain of paying well beyond historic prices for their paper gold. Let's get this market real time and physical then we can know what the yellow metal is worth and see it trade more righteously.
Got long TMV--3x inverse ETF (TBT on steroids)--yest. $5 move. Out now.
Both 10 and 30 yr yields are on their respective 2 month downtrends. Ideally we want to see a close above which would then project to the 4 month DT.
The repurcessions of a rise in rates are many fold and I am still grappling with the probabilities of each. But, if this move is for real it should last for a few months. This is the first major indice move since equities launched higher in early July. It should not be ignored.
Gold is spending most of the day stuck between the support and resistance levels. It was a good sign that gold has held it's own in the 1047-1053 area solidly despite the USD being up almost half a point. Normally I think gold would have dropped $10 on such a move.
I don't place much importance on the COT report, but it will be very interesting to see how this may have changed this week.
Hulbert's gold sentiment index has been interesting to see at times. It's a handy tool to have at one's disposal. The dollar sentiment may be numerically lower but I like the look of the gold chart over the dollar right now. The dollar did have a decent up day today but it's chart sort of seems to show it peaking and rolling over again. It even fell short of the high it made 2 days ago. Today it briefly touched the 20 day ma line and then retreated. TBT's first move up last Friday correlated exactly to the gold move starting. Hopefully it won't peter out within 6 days as it did previous times in the past few months and stick a pin in gold's balloon. The 30 yr bond did a prompt drop on top of the 50 day moving average today. If that doesn't hold next week, that's one less available option to gold. TBT
GSR is now in its first correction on this new leg down. So far it's more sideways than anything. And based on the July-Sept down legs this first side step may only last a day or two. Today gold did a meandering 5 legs down followed by a shallow move up but accomplished the basic goal of closing the week at a new high. Its chart seems to have the same look as the previous few up legs did before they jumped. It makes sense to me that gold is not going to give up an easy entry point for late timers by dropping to $1025-$1035. So far every move into the lower $1040's has been eagerly bought up. Gold stocks took a quick dip today and on that I added some Yamana and IAM. I'd much rather have bought them following a stiffer drop but it feels that at least one more up-leg is coming before gold eases back. The volume on most of the miners has been declining into this rally and most have left a wide gap on the breakout....Kinross is a perfect example. Kinross chart
With Canadian markets closed Monday this would be a convenient weekend for the PPT to try and give gold a nudge over the deep end by coordinating some action with Asia and London Sunday night as they did the weekend when Bear Stearns went down. But there are lots of differences this time that might not make such a move as effective. That was the first time over $1000 and it only lasted a day or two. Gold was far above its trend channel at the time, that is not the case today. And this time China may not want to see lower gold prices just yet.
COT report:
Gold futures added 30,000 contracts to close at 484K O/I. Commericials sold a mere 3300 longs while 3285 shorts were added. Their short to long ratio increased from 4.24 to 4.45. That's still short of the 4.58 recorded a few weeks ago. This will be the 5th consecutive week of ratio's between 4.2 to 4.6. Silver was more lopsided on the shorting side. The dollar continued to head in the long direction with the ratio increasing from 2.35 to 2.61. Commercials added 713 longs and sold 431 shorts. Adam Hamilton of Zeal had an article on COT info today. Basically he dismisses it as being useful other than to gauge whether total open interest resides within the longer term trading channel (...it is). He shows that in half the cases over the past few years gold moved with either a high % short interest or a low %. 50-50.
Goldseek.com puts out a summary of COT gold/silver/USD every Friday by around 4 pm. See link below. It's on the home page in the articles in the center section.
Silver short to long ratio for the commercials is 3.45. This has typically been short of the gold ratio by about 1 unit. Commercials (ie mainly banks) carry 77% of the total short interest. If you exclude the straddlers, then they are 93% of the short interest.
Rechecked the YY's gold chart. And even though they were looking at an October gold peak last week (missed it by 2 days) their chart does leave some wiggle room for another high or retest by the end of this next week. They expect a bottom during the last week in October.
Took advantage of the quick pop in gold, oil, and SM this morning to unload my Friday purchases (AUY and IAG). I was planning on keeping them longer but 4.5% in one day is too good to pass up, esp. considering that a number of other prominent miners were down for the day. The 15 min chart seems to show a turn down coming....and GSR was heading the wrong way (silver weaker than gold). It was a sizeable position as well so I feel better being more liquid again waiting for the next daily or weekly drop. And even as I'm finishing up this post, those 2 miners are already back down 3%. We're in a transition period between now and the end of the month and I'd rather take the sure thing...even though my own analysis of gold/silver shows another up leg coming at us this week.
PC, if you haven't already take a look at QuadG's analysis on the GSR over on the Kitco forums (page 220 of Major Market Movements). It gives a decent picture of what the next few weeks or months might bring. I couldn't link the page for some reason.
Nothing wrong with taking profits like that, RR. The stock market is on a tear though, and that will probably buoy gold stocks (almost) regardless of POG as well as the POG itself. The POG seems to have been insulated the last few days from the movement in the dollar (both ways).
I didn't post for the weekend, but we've got support at 1056 and resistance at 1060.5 and 1070.5. Currently stuck between support and resistance. I still think things are looking good and I'm still going to call for a new all time high M-W of 1070 or so. There may be a correction/pullback coming, however, the downside is probably not too significant. 1040, 1033 at the worst. I may sell 20% of my position at 1070 in case this happens, but I will try to ride anything out down to 1030.
Call me crazy, but I think the world and news cycle has been a bit dull lately. It's just a hunch, but I feel that some big international event or announcement is coming in the next 2 weeks that will be major and will affect gold significantly.
I can't really add anything to what the PM pro's are saying here, but I'm "listening"! Analysis is fantastic and greatly appreciated. Still trying to stock pile physical as hedge. Going forward with silver PM's right now and will increase position of gold on the next correct to $1030 or so. My sell point of some physical gold will be at $2000. Article on front page of local paper TODAY stating mom and pop, joe six pack are trading in PM jewelry for cash.
God Bless those guys if they can find the scrap and jewelry to turn a nice profit. It is out there if one is nimble and has the contacts or a great storefront or advertisement. A dealer friend of mine has now become basically a scrap dealer as he is clearing away all he can handle every week. Coins are almost a secondary sideline for the time being. And good thing too considering it's very hard to sell anything to anyone these days unless it's gold/silver related or off the chart amazing/wonderful if anything else. He had recently picked up a nice fresh, original deal of Morgan rolls that were bought in the early 1970's for peanuts. I ended up buying a few dozen rolls to add to the stash. While I realize that BU Morgans carry a 2X premium to melt and could lose it all down the road, there is something about fresh blazing rolls of Morgans that cuts to the heart of us coin people.
I'm not liking the looks of the chart indicators for GDX (GLD probably not far behind). The 20 day bands have turned over as have stochastics and Rsi. Gold has just touched the $1060 area for the 2nd time and retreated. Aroon 10 already peaked out and may have turned back down. While this may still be just part of last week's start of a GSR correction, it looks more serious now with the above indictors appearing to top...even if momentarily. The miners have done a nice pop the past week and left some big gaps. Worse yet the dying volume of the last 4-5 trading days on most of the miners doesn't look right. I mentioned Kinross' volume last week and it has continued to decline. It could also be attributed to the fact that this sideways correction is drawing down the volume, but coupled with the Aroon and trading bands, I don't think so.
While AUY and IAG almost gave up all their gains today, I decided not to buy them back at about the same levels as we saw Friday. Sitting tight and watching for now. The 2nd pop to $1060 may have been the last leg we've been waiting for. If not, they got me to drop out on the fakeout....and that happens a lot, believe me.
I respect RR's observations with regard to gold stocks, it has me concerned about the impact on gold, as stocks have typically led gold to downturns. Everything I've read appears to be pointing toward a coming downturn, along with my previous predictions pointing to Monday or Tuesday being a top. If one does come though, I don't expect it to be severe - $10 or $20, nothing more.
Otherwise I disagree in that I thought today was still bullish for gold. With two attempts on 1060, the next third time is often the charm. We'll see what happens. I like Kitco's new feature on the main page that breaks down the gold movement into movement due to USD and the movement due to demand. Monday credited $5.40 due to demand vs. 2.4 due to USD. I did expect to see a pop in gold today, and I still think that it's coming - I think it's slightly over due. Maybe today being a half-arsed holiday had something to do with it.
Good article talking about speculation in the gold market. Net long positions by speculators at an all time high. Some warn that this could be dangerous if there is a sell off. Others say that this activity can push gold even higher.
And another good article about bullish gold technicals. He draws parallels to NASDAQ and oil in the last couple of decades before they went parabolic. Apparently the sentiment was similar to the sentiment toward gold right now.
I'm still generally bullish but am giving some respect for the seasonality of October, turn dates, and a gold miner chart that looks toppy...even if just for a couple of days to three weeks. Hey, if this were back in the summer at $950, I wouldn't be touching those guys with a 10-ft pole based on their current chart action. But things have looked totally different since hitting $1025. We're not in "Dave" Kansas anymore Dorothy. The gold strength is apparent.
I read the same article by Bochert on the Naz and Oil comparisons from 10-20 yrs ago. Good stuff. This gold market is going to allow the least amount of riders aboard on the trip to $1100+ so re-entry points will be minimal and distasteful to nibble on. Anyone expecting a big pull back to hop on with a reduced fair ticket can probably forget it. PC's tiny pullback is probably what's in store.
I can explain my bullish outlook for Tues and possibly later with the following chart, a classic penant. Forgive the image quality, I shrunk it down, but at this hour on this hourly chart, 1052 is the bottom of the penant, with the top at 1060.0. It's a pretty nice penant, starting with an initial height of about $20 and now down to $8. Every 16 hours it shrings $2. Not sure when the breakout will happen, but it could be the 3rd or 4th attempt on 1060 as we reach the point of the penant. There's always a possibility of resolving downward, but I don't expect it to. The predominant trend is definitely up.
During September option cycle there was a spike up on the Wednesday prior to expiration of equity options (GLD, SLV) and a give back on Friday expiration. 10/14 is the Wednesday witching day in the cycle for October. Any unusual move on Wednesday might be related to rolling of options forward into the next cycle, often times with a give back by Friday expiration. Don't read too much into any moves that happen on 10/14.
PC, I can definitely see some conflicting bullish indicators such as RSI making a slight turn on a higher low and now basing around 50 on the hourly chart. But off-setting that is a neg divergence on 3 lower highs. So I'd call that even but it is consolidating in a triangle. Volume was amazingly small today on GLD and has been generally falling lately. The Macd seems close to heading up again. But the Williams on the hourly chart seems slanted down. And the slow stoch hasn't broken a down trend yet. The factors are all about even when taken as a whole. I do see the shrinking of the bands indicating a break coming. Adding up all the above, I have to give the edge to the downward accelerating slow stochastic + neg Williams. The 15 min chart gives a more bullish picture however. I give the nod to the hourly chart. It's very close overall with conflicts and probably why I decided to step back and wait. Today's overall daily chart shape was a rising and then declining dome...whatever that may mean.
GSR has been pulling back from 59.0 to 59.5+ indicating liquidity leaving the market....as volume attested to. But now in after hours trading, it's swinging back (59.35). So it's a 50-50 horse race from here! None of this should affect the price of BU Morgans.....I hope.
Gold hit 1069.7 in overnight trading. That was one of my tragets. Wish I had sold a bit there and bought in here around 1060 but I wasn't smart enough to do that.
I'm not sure how to read this. It was a clear breakout from the penant, but we've now come back down into the penant (currently 1055-1060). It seems to have retraced a tad lower than it probably "should have" for the bullish case. Most of this action seems to be due to a rebound in the USD that started about 5am (pac time), what appears to be a bounce off of 76.0.
So I guess all we can do here is see what USD does - see if it will crack previous support level of ~76.25 and send gold lower. I don't think it will...
<< <i>Gold hit 1069.7 in overnight trading. That was one of my tragets. Wish I had sold a bit there and bought in here around 1060 but I wasn't smart enough to do that.
I'm not sure how to read this. It was a clear breakout from the penant, but we've now come back down into the penant (currently 1055-1060). It seems to have retraced a tad lower than it probably "should have" for the bullish case. Most of this action seems to be due to a rebound in the USD that started about 5am (pac time), what appears to be a bounce off of 76.0.
So I guess all we can do here is see what USD does - see if it will crack previous support level of ~76.25 and send gold lower. I don't think it will... >>
There was an article in the Journal or the Financial Times yesterday that noted the Japanese have taken a massive position in the dollar...a dramatically large position. Just an FYI.
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
If the Japanese have taken a dollar position are we sure it's not a carry trade type position where they will place the dollars into assets earning a higher yield (stocks, bonds, commodities) just like everyone else is doing?
The volumes finally shifted to the upside today on the miners as well as GLD/SLV. About time. So that's a more bullish picture. Stochastics have now been >80 for 3-4 days as well. It certainly seems like gold wants to head to $1100. One can count 5 waves complete to $1068 with at least a short correction due immediately . This would be a good time to retest back to $1045 before going higher. Anything under $1020-$1025 jeopardizes a move higher than $1068 in the near term. GSR has spent 3 days moving back up with the least amount of damage. With silver falling slightly and gold moving higher, the GSR has "corrected" to the upside close to 60.0 w/o inflicting any damage to the prices. The dollar broke to new yearly lows today which is not a good picture. It would appear it wants to run another leg down....maybe to 74. That would push gold to Sinclair's $1089.
And yet another good call by Proof Collection hanging tough.
<< <i>There was an article in the Journal or the Financial Times yesterday that noted the Japanese have taken a massive position in the dollar...a dramatically large position. Just an FYI. >>
If they have already taken the position, then the effect is over. All they can do now to influence price is buy more or sell. Like RR said, it's likely to be part of a carry trade - or the unwinding or conversion of the Yen carry trade to the USD carry trade.
<< <i>And yet another good call by Proof Collection hanging tough. >>
Thanks for the acknowledgement. In retrospect that was a great call with the penant. I know I keep sounding like the unending bull, but this run keeps going. When I sense a top though I will report it, as eventually we'll have to make a 38.2% retracement.
Some poeple here keep mentioning historical and seasonal tendencies. The thing is - the market has changed. Something clicked over about 2 months ago, and gold - and the stock market - has become a different animal. One thing I've learned in the past couple years of trading is that there are lots of different indicators and strategies, and each of them work in certain market environments. I don't have anything more specific than that, other than I think it's safe to throw "historical" and "seasonal" thinking out the window for now. Gold and the stock market are closely linked at the moment, and both are moving inverse to the dollar. I've been trying to make some trades using that relationship. If I see stocks pop with no corresponding move in gold, I buy an extra gold contract and wait for it to follow, and vice versa.
It was another great day for gold. I think the trend will continue for several more days. I think 1100 is in sight, with 1080 being a near term speed bump. I think we'll be in store for some consolidation between 1080 and 1100... it might look a bit like 980-1000 did several weeks ago.
Support for tonight is at 1062.3, with resistance at 1072.3 and 1079.8.
One thing about the way gold is moving - it's really slow and gradual. Not running away, just slow and steady. Very bullish...
ZSL is an short etf of which I am currently long at 4.69. If silver closes above the upper trendline it could spike 10% so I do have a hair trigger on my position.
I don't durrently have any paper silver positions/stocks. But just by counting waves back from October/November I'd lean towards silver breaking out above the channel towards $18.50-$19.00. It looks like we're in the early part of major wave 3 with something left still on the current minor wave. GSR still has a leg down to two to complete so I'm not ready to toss in the towel on silver just yet. It's far more coiled than gold as well. Channels are sometimes made to be broken.
House Panel Approves Clearing Requirement for Many Derivatives
By Dawn Kopecki
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The House Financial Services Committee adopted a provision today that would require broker dealers such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and their biggest customers to trade and clear most derivatives contracts openly.
The provision, approved 39 to 25, would require swaps dealers and major participants to trade contracts on regulated exchanges or swap-execution facilities. It exempts from those requirements so-called end-users, companies that employ derivatives to hedge operational risk. The provision was added to legislation the committee is considering to rein in the $592 trillion over-the-counter derivatives industry.
To contact the reporter on this story: Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.com. Last Updated: October 15, 2009 09:50 EDT
And Japan's economy would flourish in such a situation. LOL. Dont these guys ever think before they write? A currency backed by NOTHING, with no military and a declining population will surely do well vs the dollar. LOL
Today's move was confusing. The dollar was pretty much down to sideways, and the stock market was up. This *should* have meant an up day for gold, but we got the opposite.
I'm not sure how this is going to resolve over the next few days. This could be a fake out with some pent up chart energy ready to release and send gold up to ~1080, where it probably should have gone today given the USD and SPX.
But if it was that easy, everyone would be rich.
So either this dip is temporary and/or this dip is part of a consolidation process based on 1050-1060. If consolidation, I'm guessing we'll see movement down to 1035 and up to 1075.
I think volatility will increase here as there will be more profit taking, weak hands getting scared of a gold plummet, and then people getting back on board after gold bounces on support.
Support is at 1033.5, 1042.1, and resistance at 1054, 1063, and 1075.5.
I'd recommend buying and adding on the low 1040's. I plan to weather any dips down to 1033 or so, as I think they will be quick. Wish I'd had the forsight to unload at 1070, but I can't complain.
With the support and resistance levels where they're at and lining up beautifully with points like 1033 (the previous all time high) and 1075 (approx the recent all time high) I think gold will be very active Friday.
The equity markets were much weaker than the closing numbers indicated. The nasdaq closed lower, which means it may have lost leadership. This usually means a market that is turning more defensive. The expiration of options tomorrow may have had something to do with this also, but it bears watching.
The dollar was sideways but interest rates were higher. If this continues, as I believe it will the reverse YEN carry trade will again unwind. Bye bye YEN. The dollar is against the bottom of a 4 month trend channel and looks to be making some sort of bottom, whether for a week or a year is yet to be seen. Gold was 15% above its 200dma. In Feb and early June it was 17% and 15% above the 200dma. Silver was also at the top end of its trend channel. Most stars were aligned for a selloff (profit taking) in metals. The oil market is a beast unto itself and those looking for manipulation would most likely find it here.
Agreed, today's action made little sense other than in Cohodk's context of a profit taking breather, etc. This corrective flat leg in GSR is lasting quite a while. No reason therefore it can't go on longer. Again, watching and waiting for a decent entry point.
Here's something coming soon to the goldies. A junior GDX ETF by John Van Eck who has been around the goldies a long time. It's application is waiting for approval. Comprises close to 40 juniors in production or late exploration. Companies like Gammon, Coeur, Standard Silver, Goldenstar, Silvercorp, Hecla, Jaguar and others may not be so junior but they are here. Most of the names are recognizable. The idea of a junior ETF where most of these guys are either on the Candadian market or overseas makes it one stop shopping for a basket of juniors. If you want those guys then go with big boy GDX.
Stewart Thomson commented on the above in his weekly missive. I don't get paid by either of them but thought his comments were interesting.
18. I spoke to Van Eck funds yesterday. John Van Eck began the company in 1955. I want you to think carefully about this man. He has a Harvard MBA. The period of 1955-1968 was arguably the absolute pinnacle of American economic performance, and John started a growth fund with perfect timing, in that year 1955.
19. Then in 1968 he started the first American gold fund. He moved the bulk of the assets from his growth fund into the gold fund. Again, perfect timing to catch the gold bull market of 1968-1980.
20. Now Van Eck funds, as some in the community know, is starting the Van Eck Gold Juniors ETF. I could be wrong, but I believe the Van Eck timing, again, is absolutely perfect! The ultimate investment at the ultimate time has been filed with the securities commission, the weightings and stocks are chosen, it's just a matter of waiting for the Gman to approve it. I see no reason for it not being approved. Van Eck runs the GDX seniors/intermediates gold stocks ETF. We're not talking about Bozo the Gold Clown here, Van Eck is a real pro and I believe he's about to hit the ultimate home run.
21. As the juniors go on a tear that could make the high-tech bull market look like a bear, I believe "stock picking" will become even more irrelevant with the junior golds that it was with the high techs. The gold juniors ETF could see hedge fund participation. If so, all bets are literally off as to the upside, when you are talking about funds leveraging their investments in junior golds at 20 to 1, 30 to 1, 50 to 1. And more.
Whether this one is true or not Rob is always entertaining. In the end though I think the majority of his findings/opinions will be found to be basically true.
Now that this GSR corrective leg has shown us some more length I'd have to say my first call on the chart was too hasty. It makes much more sense and fits the chart better if the current leg is a complex correction from mid-September. In looking at the Trix, Macd it does look much better as a continuation into the 4th wave. And it also matches up with the unusual trading activity in gold/silver since then. The current 4th wave looks to be a series of 3's so far (3 up, 3 down, 3 up). It may also form into a symetrical triangle and then breakout. I noted that the 20 day Bolinger Bands have been diving since mid-Sept and are now flat (10's are showing the minor waves).
This all means that we have yet to complete the 4th leg with a strong 5th leg down to come. That 5th leg should be similar in length to legs 1 or 3 and possibly longer (4 weeks+). This current 4th leg looks to have to retrace up towards the 62-63 gsr range. That could take 5-10 days....into the last week in October, coinciding with the last bond week sales (2/5/7's), gold futures expiration, and end of month portfolio management.
For a comparison to the junior GDX link above (MV GDXJ) here's the current profile of the to 10 holdings in GDX. My only complaint about the GDX is that it weights too much towards the slightly slower moving heavyweights and in particular Barrick which hasn't done anything since late November.
AGNICO EAGLE MINES AEM 4.58 ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LT AU 4.93 BARRICK GOLD CP ABX 10.93 Buenaventura Mining C Inc. ADR 4.93 GOLDCORP INC COM NPV G.TO 9.61 IAMGOLD CORP COM NPV IMG.TO 4.84 Kinross Gold Corporation N/A 4.61 NEWMONT MIN CP (HLDG NEM 7.86 Randgold Resources Limited GOLD 5.27 YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV YRI. 4.72
--------------------
COT REPORT
Gold increased 20K contracts to 504,000 open interest. The ratio is basically unchanged at 4.43 to 1. The commercials added 4,500 longs and 18,555 shorts. Silver added about an equal number of longs and shorts. The dollar added 2000 contracts and continued to the long side with the ratio increasing from 2.61 to 2.79.
The consolidation continues. It's a bit premature, but I can see a penant formation starting from the high on Wed at 1072. We'll have to see if it sticks between ~1054 and ~1067 from here on out until a breakout. I'm going to try to play this range with a small percentage of my position. I'm not expecting much for Wed, although a top was called for between Mon and Wed. I have a hard time thinking that ~1068 on Mon night was the high. I could be surprised with a top up around 1075 or so on Wed, which would disprove the penant.
Wed I think SP500 wants to return to the high 1090's at least, so I think gold will follow to at least the high 1060's.
Support is at 1049.6, resistance at 1059.2, 1066, and 1075.6.
The action in the miners seems to portend a bit more weakness....maybe up to 4 trading days. This morning's initial weakness with gold falling overnight followed by the dollar hitting new yearly lows propelled the miners up for a few hours, then they tanked. But the overall downtrend of the past week still seems to be intact. Nearly every miner had a nice hangman doji today. BVN had been leading the way down until today but now Kinross seems to be showing the way. Volumes are increasing on some as they weaken. A few more Aroon 10 day crosses appeared today. Usually that means the downtrend is entrenched and past the half way point. While a few of the stochastics such as Barrick have flattened out, others like Kinross are still pointing down. Momentum on most is still downward. I was considering taking a bite this morning on the lows but in pondering about it for 10-15 min. they were already back up 2%. In any case one would have had to have sold everything soon after to get the 4-5% swing trade. As gold stock corrections go this one has been pretty sedate so far....about 8-14% for most of the miners, and a far cry from the 18-25% hits we are so used to seeing this past year.
The GSR seems to be triangulating with about a week or so to run out of room. The downtrend line now constrains it to <61.
I'm not sure there's more weakness to come, but I'm not sure we're ready for more strength quite yet. I expect the consolidation to continue for maybe another day, but we're almost consolidated now. The consolidation has been very tight and very bullish, holding firm at 1046-1050.
I'm still "all-in" with a full position, waiting out this consolidation. I tried to play the swing by buying an additional, small "temporary" position in the low 1050's and selling at 1066 but missed my target by $.30. Oh well. I think we'll see 1066 on Thurs again.
I'm a little concerned about the stock market, and assuming the relationship continues, I'm more pessimistic about some near term weakness in stocks which could drag down gold... however, the USD doesn't appear to be heading into strength anytime soon either.
the USD doesn't appear to be heading into strength anytime soon either
I may be inclined to take the opposite side of that trade. Look at UDN--the short dollar ETF. It is right up against the upper trend line. My momo indicator is beginning to turn lower. The dollar is about to begin some kind of bounce, or a precipitous decline. Given the extreme bearish on the dollar, I think a short term bounce is more likely.
Buying the dollar here at support offers a better risk/reward trade than shorting it. If I am wrong, then I have a very tight stopping out point--less than 1%. If im right then I have 5% upside.
Your point on UDN is interesting, with resistance at ~28.8, I would also agree that it would be difficult for it to get through on the first try. This could give gold at least some short term pressure.
The only thing I can see that might change that is what I still feel are some imminent announcements, disclosures, or events from the whitehouse regarding any number of major issues with significant financial ramifications.
In light of your observations, I think I will lighten my position to maybe 70% on any bounce up to 1065-ish.
Took bites of IAG and Kinross today following their quick drops. But by the end of the day I didn't get a good feeling that they were heading up any further. So rather than take a possible loss Friday or Monday I took a few hundred bucks for my troubles on IAG and a token $15 on KGC. I still felt going into today that we have more miner downside to go through. Better to sit back again and wait for more definitive action. The dollar appears to be triangulating in a saw tooth pattern. It might rise and then fall one more time before heading into it's 5th and final wave down of the current downtrend. That 5th leg could take a couple of weeks to complete. That should set gold up for another all time high ascent beginning next week. Gold futures and options expire on Tuesday and Wednesday so one would think the shorts want to get a few more of their contracts in the money. We also have the final formal 3 day bond auction week for this year.
Today IAG and one other major miner were the first to reset their Aroon 10's back to the maximum bearish stance. As the others show up that should end the correction. Miners flipped their candles from hangman doji's yesterday to a bunch of spinners and hammers today...an improvement. BVN and Yamana continue to show the most resilience among the seniors. BVN may already have seen its bottom. 20 day Bands have now rounded over on the miners and on GLD. GLD had been resisting but now you can see it. On the 10 day bands the trend is linearly up and has been this entire week. So I would expect the current trend to continue a bit longer. Stochastics, Macd, ADX, and declining volumes continue to show a downtrend, but a weakening one. CCI and StochRsi do support a bottom approaching. GLD has been the most resilient as it still has a climbing ADX line.
The miners appear to have now done at least 3 basic legs down since their peak. 2 more legs down should take them right into early to mid-next week to coincide with the dollar peaking under 76.3. If it does exceed that it would have broken above it's multi-month downward channel.
Some excellent charts, trending and references in this link that is well worth reading. Also posted on the main thread. At the bottom is a link to each junior in the Market Vectors' proposed GDXJ gold miner ETF.
<< <i>Your point on UDN is interesting, with resistance at ~28.8, I would also agree that it would be difficult for it to get through on the first try. This could give gold at least some short term pressure.
The only thing I can see that might change that is what I still feel are some imminent announcements, disclosures, or events from the whitehouse regarding any number of major issues with significant financial ramifications.
In light of your observations, I think I will lighten my position to maybe 70% on any bounce up to 1065-ish. >>
Oh boy, now im on the hook. That darn dollar better pop up a little.
FWIW---I NEVER go 100% on anything. Even if I devote 10% of my money to one idea, I never put in the entire 10%.
I re-evaluated the big picture and I've decided against selling a portion of my holdings, so you are off the hook, cohodk.
I think the consolidation period is nearing an end. It may take a few more trading days to finish up and take off, but I think the charts are almost ready for another move. There does appear to be a penant forming since last Wednesday's ATH of 1072 and Friday's low of near 1045. Since then the lows have been higher the the highs lower, with a center at 1060. The USD may bounce a bit here, but I don't think the POG will be affected significantly. I still see the max downside as ~1040, which I am prepared for. I also think SPY is ready to head higher as well, and it will drag gold along with.
Ackermen had a post where he's calling for a top for the next move of 1134 using his hidden pivot method, which tends to work well from time to time, and appears to be reasonable to me.
Edited to add: Support for Friday is at 1048.1, 1054.5, 1058.5, and resistance at 1064.9 and 1068.9.
Comments
Well, two things. I want to run the shorters out of the daily bidness and the high levels should discourage a good bit of that and I want those buying paper shares to feel the pain of paying well beyond historic prices for their paper gold. Let's get this market real time and physical then we can know what the yellow metal is worth and see it trade more righteously.
http://www.cotstimer.blogspot.com/
link
It is curious, considering COT for gold is still at extreme levels. Roslin tracks gold and several other markets.
Gold made its most substantial move the day Australia raised rates.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I believe yesterday was a major reversal day for interest rates. They are going higher.
Gold made its most substantial move the day Australia raised rates. >>
How are you playing this? Daytrading TBT? Or taking a position? What is the time frame and possible targets and stops?
Both 10 and 30 yr yields are on their respective 2 month downtrends. Ideally we want to see a close above which would then project to the 4 month DT.
The repurcessions of a rise in rates are many fold and I am still grappling with the probabilities of each. But, if this move is for real it should last for a few months. This is the first major indice move since equities launched higher in early July. It should not be ignored.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Wednesday sure does seem to be the low in interest rates
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I don't place much importance on the COT report, but it will be very interesting to see how this may have changed this week.
TBT
GSR is now in its first correction on this new leg down. So far it's more sideways than anything. And based on the July-Sept down legs this first side step may only last a day or two. Today gold did a meandering 5 legs down followed by a shallow move up but accomplished the basic goal of closing the week at a new high. Its chart seems to have the same look as the previous few up legs did before they jumped. It makes sense to me that gold is not going to give up an easy entry point for late timers by dropping to $1025-$1035. So far every move into the lower $1040's has been eagerly bought up. Gold stocks took a quick dip today and on that I added some Yamana and IAM. I'd much rather have bought them following a stiffer drop but it feels that at least one more up-leg is coming before gold eases back. The volume on most of the miners has been declining into this rally and most have left a wide gap on the breakout....Kinross is a perfect example.
Kinross chart
With Canadian markets closed Monday this would be a convenient weekend for the PPT to try and give gold a nudge over the deep end by coordinating some action with Asia and London Sunday night as they did the weekend when Bear Stearns went down. But there are lots of differences this time that might not make such a move as effective. That was the first time over $1000 and it only lasted a day or two. Gold was far above its trend channel at the time, that is not the case today. And this time China may not want to see lower gold prices just yet.
COT report:
Gold futures added 30,000 contracts to close at 484K O/I. Commericials sold a mere 3300 longs while 3285 shorts were added. Their short to long ratio increased from 4.24 to 4.45. That's still short of the 4.58 recorded a few weeks ago. This will be the 5th consecutive week of ratio's between 4.2 to 4.6. Silver was more lopsided on the shorting side. The dollar continued to head in the long direction with the ratio increasing from 2.35 to 2.61. Commercials added 713 longs and sold 431 shorts. Adam Hamilton of Zeal had an article on COT info today. Basically he dismisses it as being useful other than to gauge whether total open interest resides within the longer term trading channel (...it is). He shows that in half the cases over the past few years gold moved with either a high % short interest or a low %. 50-50.
roadrunner
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Silver short to long ratio for the commercials is 3.45. This has typically been short of the gold ratio by about 1 unit. Commercials (ie mainly banks) carry 77% of the total short interest. If you exclude the straddlers, then they are 93% of the short interest.
Rechecked the YY's gold chart. And even though they were looking at an October gold peak last week (missed it by 2 days) their chart does leave some wiggle room for another high or retest by the end of this next week. They expect a bottom during the last week in October.
roadrunner
PC, if you haven't already take a look at QuadG's analysis on the GSR over on the Kitco forums (page 220 of Major Market Movements). It gives a decent picture of what the next few weeks or months might bring. I couldn't link the page for some reason.
roadrunner
I didn't post for the weekend, but we've got support at 1056 and resistance at 1060.5 and 1070.5. Currently stuck between support and resistance. I still think things are looking good and I'm still going to call for a new all time high M-W of 1070 or so. There may be a correction/pullback coming, however, the downside is probably not too significant. 1040, 1033 at the worst. I may sell 20% of my position at 1070 in case this happens, but I will try to ride anything out down to 1030.
Call me crazy, but I think the world and news cycle has been a bit dull lately. It's just a hunch, but I feel that some big international event or announcement is coming in the next 2 weeks that will be major and will affect gold significantly.
I'm not liking the looks of the chart indicators for GDX (GLD probably not far behind). The 20 day bands have turned over as have stochastics and Rsi. Gold has just touched the $1060 area for the 2nd time and retreated. Aroon 10 already peaked out and may have turned back down. While this may still be just part of last week's start of a GSR correction, it looks more serious now with the above indictors appearing to top...even if momentarily. The miners have done a nice pop the past week and left some big gaps. Worse yet the dying volume of the last 4-5 trading days on most of the miners doesn't look right. I mentioned Kinross' volume last week and it has continued to decline. It could also be attributed to the fact that this sideways correction is drawing down the volume, but coupled with the Aroon and trading bands, I don't think so.
While AUY and IAG almost gave up all their gains today, I decided not to buy them back at about the same levels as we saw Friday. Sitting tight and watching for now. The 2nd pop to $1060 may have been the last leg we've been waiting for. If not, they got me to drop out on the fakeout....and that happens a lot, believe me.
roadrunner
Otherwise I disagree in that I thought today was still bullish for gold. With two attempts on 1060, the next third time is often the charm. We'll see what happens. I like Kitco's new feature on the main page that breaks down the gold movement into movement due to USD and the movement due to demand. Monday credited $5.40 due to demand vs. 2.4 due to USD. I did expect to see a pop in gold today, and I still think that it's coming - I think it's slightly over due. Maybe today being a half-arsed holiday had something to do with it.
Good article talking about speculation in the gold market. Net long positions by speculators at an all time high. Some warn that this could be dangerous if there is a sell off. Others say that this activity can push gold even higher.
http://tinyurl.com/ykjjeuy
And another good article about bullish gold technicals. He draws parallels to NASDAQ and oil in the last couple of decades before they went parabolic. Apparently the sentiment was similar to the sentiment toward gold right now.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14138.html
I read the same article by Bochert on the Naz and Oil comparisons from 10-20 yrs ago. Good stuff. This gold market is going to allow the least amount of riders aboard on the trip to $1100+ so re-entry points will be minimal and distasteful to nibble on. Anyone expecting a big pull back to hop on with a reduced fair ticket can probably forget it. PC's tiny pullback is probably what's in store.
roadrunner
GSR has been pulling back from 59.0 to 59.5+ indicating liquidity leaving the market....as volume attested to. But now in after hours trading, it's swinging back (59.35). So it's a 50-50 horse race from here! None of this should affect the price of BU Morgans.....I hope.
roadrunner
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<< <i>Could the Chinese be setting a new floor? >>
Not just the Chinese. Most central banks have definitely stopped selling gold. Some - not just the Chinese - are buying now.
BTY, support for Tuesday is at 1050.7, and 1055.4, with resistance at 1063 and 1067.9.
I'm not sure how to read this. It was a clear breakout from the penant, but we've now come back down into the penant (currently 1055-1060). It seems to have retraced a tad lower than it probably "should have" for the bullish case. Most of this action seems to be due to a rebound in the USD that started about 5am (pac time), what appears to be a bounce off of 76.0.
So I guess all we can do here is see what USD does - see if it will crack previous support level of ~76.25 and send gold lower. I don't think it will...
<< <i>Gold hit 1069.7 in overnight trading. That was one of my tragets. Wish I had sold a bit there and bought in here around 1060 but I wasn't smart enough to do that.
I'm not sure how to read this. It was a clear breakout from the penant, but we've now come back down into the penant (currently 1055-1060). It seems to have retraced a tad lower than it probably "should have" for the bullish case. Most of this action seems to be due to a rebound in the USD that started about 5am (pac time), what appears to be a bounce off of 76.0.
So I guess all we can do here is see what USD does - see if it will crack previous support level of ~76.25 and send gold lower. I don't think it will... >>
There was an article in the Journal or the Financial Times yesterday that noted the Japanese have taken a massive position in the dollar...a dramatically large position. Just an FYI.
The volumes finally shifted to the upside today on the miners as well as GLD/SLV. About time. So that's a more bullish picture. Stochastics have now been >80 for 3-4 days as well. It certainly seems like gold wants to head to $1100. One can count 5 waves complete to $1068 with at least a short correction due immediately . This would be a good time to retest back to $1045 before going higher. Anything under $1020-$1025 jeopardizes a move higher than $1068 in the near term. GSR has spent 3 days moving back up with the least amount of damage. With silver falling slightly and gold moving higher, the GSR has "corrected" to the upside close to 60.0 w/o inflicting any damage to the prices. The dollar broke to new yearly lows today which is not a good picture. It would appear it wants to run another leg down....maybe to 74. That would push gold to Sinclair's $1089.
And yet another good call by Proof Collection hanging tough.
roadrunner
<< <i>There was an article in the Journal or the Financial Times yesterday that noted the Japanese have taken a massive position in the dollar...a dramatically large position. Just an FYI. >>
If they have already taken the position, then the effect is over. All they can do now to influence price is buy more or sell. Like RR said, it's likely to be part of a carry trade - or the unwinding or conversion of the Yen carry trade to the USD carry trade.
<< <i>And yet another good call by Proof Collection hanging tough. >>
Thanks for the acknowledgement. In retrospect that was a great call with the penant. I know I keep sounding like the unending bull, but this run keeps going. When I sense a top though I will report it, as eventually we'll have to make a 38.2% retracement.
Some poeple here keep mentioning historical and seasonal tendencies. The thing is - the market has changed. Something clicked over about 2 months ago, and gold - and the stock market - has become a different animal. One thing I've learned in the past couple years of trading is that there are lots of different indicators and strategies, and each of them work in certain market environments. I don't have anything more specific than that, other than I think it's safe to throw "historical" and "seasonal" thinking out the window for now. Gold and the stock market are closely linked at the moment, and both are moving inverse to the dollar. I've been trying to make some trades using that relationship. If I see stocks pop with no corresponding move in gold, I buy an extra gold contract and wait for it to follow, and vice versa.
It was another great day for gold. I think the trend will continue for several more days. I think 1100 is in sight, with 1080 being a near term speed bump. I think we'll be in store for some consolidation between 1080 and 1100... it might look a bit like 980-1000 did several weeks ago.
Support for tonight is at 1062.3, with resistance at 1072.3 and 1079.8.
One thing about the way gold is moving - it's really slow and gradual. Not running away, just slow and steady. Very bullish...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
ZSL is an short etf of which I am currently long at 4.69. If silver closes above the upper trendline it could spike 10% so I do have a hair trigger on my position.
You could also buy puts on SLV.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
roadrunner
House Panel Approves Clearing Requirement for Many Derivatives
By Dawn Kopecki
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The House Financial Services Committee adopted a provision today that would require broker dealers such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and their biggest customers to trade and clear most derivatives contracts openly.
The provision, approved 39 to 25, would require swaps dealers and major participants to trade contracts on regulated exchanges or swap-execution facilities. It exempts from those requirements so-called end-users, companies that employ derivatives to hedge operational risk. The provision was added to legislation the committee is considering to rein in the $592 trillion over-the-counter derivatives industry.
To contact the reporter on this story: Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.com.
Last Updated: October 15, 2009 09:50 EDT
WSJ
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This don't sound good either.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Textwww.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a_A5nqmw9Dq8
This don't sound good either. >>
And Japan's economy would flourish in such a situation. LOL. Dont these guys ever think before they write? A currency backed by NOTHING, with no military and a declining population will surely do well vs the dollar. LOL
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm not sure how this is going to resolve over the next few days. This could be a fake out with some pent up chart energy ready to release and send gold up to ~1080, where it probably should have gone today given the USD and SPX.
But if it was that easy, everyone would be rich.
So either this dip is temporary and/or this dip is part of a consolidation process based on 1050-1060. If consolidation, I'm guessing we'll see movement down to 1035 and up to 1075.
I think volatility will increase here as there will be more profit taking, weak hands getting scared of a gold plummet, and then people getting back on board after gold bounces on support.
Support is at 1033.5, 1042.1, and resistance at 1054, 1063, and 1075.5.
I'd recommend buying and adding on the low 1040's. I plan to weather any dips down to 1033 or so, as I think they will be quick. Wish I'd had the forsight to unload at 1070, but I can't complain.
With the support and resistance levels where they're at and lining up beautifully with points like 1033 (the previous all time high) and 1075 (approx the recent all time high) I think gold will be very active Friday.
The dollar was sideways but interest rates were higher. If this continues, as I believe it will the reverse YEN carry trade will again unwind. Bye bye YEN. The dollar is against the bottom of a 4 month trend channel and looks to be making some sort of bottom, whether for a week or a year is yet to be seen. Gold was 15% above its 200dma. In Feb and early June it was 17% and 15% above the 200dma. Silver was also at the top end of its trend channel. Most stars were aligned for a selloff (profit taking) in metals. The oil market is a beast unto itself and those looking for manipulation would most likely find it here.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Here's something coming soon to the goldies. A junior GDX ETF by John Van Eck who has been around the goldies a long time. It's application is waiting for approval. Comprises close to 40 juniors in production or late exploration. Companies like Gammon, Coeur, Standard Silver, Goldenstar, Silvercorp, Hecla, Jaguar and others may not be so junior but they are here. Most of the names are recognizable. The idea of a junior ETF where most of these guys are either on the Candadian market or overseas makes it one stop shopping for a basket of juniors. If you want those guys then go with big boy GDX.
Mini-Me GDX!
Stewart Thomson commented on the above in his weekly missive. I don't get paid by either of them but thought his comments were interesting.
18. I spoke to Van Eck funds yesterday. John Van Eck began the company in 1955. I want you to think carefully about this man. He has a Harvard MBA. The period of 1955-1968 was arguably the absolute pinnacle of American economic performance, and John started a growth fund with perfect timing, in that year 1955.
19. Then in 1968 he started the first American gold fund. He moved the bulk of the assets from his growth fund into the gold fund. Again, perfect timing to catch the gold bull market of 1968-1980.
20. Now Van Eck funds, as some in the community know, is starting the Van Eck Gold Juniors ETF. I could be wrong, but I believe the Van Eck timing, again, is absolutely perfect! The ultimate investment at the ultimate time has been filed with the securities commission, the weightings and stocks are chosen, it's just a matter of waiting for the Gman to approve it. I see no reason for it not being approved. Van Eck runs the GDX seniors/intermediates gold stocks ETF. We're not talking about Bozo the Gold Clown here, Van Eck is a real pro and I believe he's about to hit the ultimate home run.
21. As the juniors go on a tear that could make the high-tech bull market look like a bear, I believe "stock picking" will become even more irrelevant with the junior golds that it was with the high techs. The gold juniors ETF could see hedge fund participation. If so, all bets are literally off as to the upside, when you are talking about funds leveraging their investments in junior golds at 20 to 1, 30 to 1, 50 to 1. And more.
Rob Kirby talks of tungsten filled "good delivery" gold bars and volatile GLD inventory sheets
Whether this one is true or not Rob is always entertaining. In the end though I think the majority of his findings/opinions will be found to be basically true.
roadrunner
Now that this GSR corrective leg has shown us some more length I'd have to say my first call on the chart was too hasty. It makes much more sense and fits the chart better if the current leg is a complex correction from mid-September. In looking at the Trix, Macd it does look much better as a continuation into the 4th wave. And it also matches up with the unusual trading activity in gold/silver since then. The current 4th wave looks to be a series of 3's so far (3 up, 3 down, 3 up). It may also form into a symetrical triangle and then breakout. I noted that the 20 day Bolinger Bands have been diving since mid-Sept and are now flat (10's are showing the minor waves).
This all means that we have yet to complete the 4th leg with a strong 5th leg down to come. That 5th leg should be similar in length to legs 1 or 3 and possibly longer (4 weeks+). This current 4th leg looks to have to retrace up towards the 62-63 gsr range. That could take 5-10 days....into the last week in October, coinciding with the last bond week sales (2/5/7's), gold futures expiration, and end of month portfolio management.
For a comparison to the junior GDX link above (MV GDXJ) here's the current profile of the to 10 holdings in GDX. My only complaint about the GDX is that it weights too much towards the slightly slower moving heavyweights and in particular Barrick which hasn't done anything since late November.
AGNICO EAGLE MINES AEM 4.58
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LT AU 4.93
BARRICK GOLD CP ABX 10.93
Buenaventura Mining C Inc. ADR 4.93
GOLDCORP INC COM NPV G.TO 9.61
IAMGOLD CORP COM NPV IMG.TO 4.84
Kinross Gold Corporation N/A 4.61
NEWMONT MIN CP (HLDG NEM 7.86
Randgold Resources Limited GOLD 5.27
YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV YRI. 4.72
--------------------
COT REPORT
Gold increased 20K contracts to 504,000 open interest. The ratio is basically unchanged at 4.43 to 1. The commercials added 4,500 longs and 18,555 shorts. Silver added about an equal number of longs and shorts. The dollar added 2000 contracts and continued to the long side with the ratio increasing from 2.61 to 2.79.
roadrunner
Wed I think SP500 wants to return to the high 1090's at least, so I think gold will follow to at least the high 1060's.
Support is at 1049.6, resistance at 1059.2, 1066, and 1075.6.
I see this as a BAD sign for the bond market bubble. Its going to pop soon (maybe 6 months)...
That could move some current bond money into pm's. imho
The GSR seems to be triangulating with about a week or so to run out of room. The downtrend line now constrains it to <61.
Gold miner & GSR candle glance charts
roadrunner
I'm still "all-in" with a full position, waiting out this consolidation. I tried to play the swing by buying an additional, small "temporary" position in the low 1050's and selling at 1066 but missed my target by $.30. Oh well. I think we'll see 1066 on Thurs again.
I'm a little concerned about the stock market, and assuming the relationship continues, I'm more pessimistic about some near term weakness in stocks which could drag down gold... however, the USD doesn't appear to be heading into strength anytime soon either.
I may be inclined to take the opposite side of that trade. Look at UDN--the short dollar ETF. It is right up against the upper trend line. My momo indicator is beginning to turn lower. The dollar is about to begin some kind of bounce, or a precipitous decline. Given the extreme bearish on the dollar, I think a short term bounce is more likely.
Buying the dollar here at support offers a better risk/reward trade than shorting it. If I am wrong, then I have a very tight stopping out point--less than 1%. If im right then I have 5% upside.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The only thing I can see that might change that is what I still feel are some imminent announcements, disclosures, or events from the whitehouse regarding any number of major issues with significant financial ramifications.
In light of your observations, I think I will lighten my position to maybe 70% on any bounce up to 1065-ish.
Today IAG and one other major miner were the first to reset their Aroon 10's back to the maximum bearish stance. As the others show up that should end the correction. Miners flipped their candles from hangman doji's yesterday to a bunch of spinners and hammers today...an improvement. BVN and Yamana continue to show the most resilience among the seniors. BVN may already have seen its bottom. 20 day Bands have now rounded over on the miners and on GLD. GLD had been resisting but now you can see it. On the 10 day bands the trend is linearly up and has been this entire week. So I would expect the current trend to continue a bit longer. Stochastics, Macd, ADX, and declining volumes continue to show a downtrend, but a weakening one. CCI and StochRsi do support a bottom approaching. GLD has been the most resilient as it still has a climbing ADX line.
The miners appear to have now done at least 3 basic legs down since their peak. 2 more legs down should take them right into early to mid-next week to coincide with the dollar peaking under 76.3. If it does exceed that it would have broken above it's multi-month downward channel.
Some excellent charts, trending and references in this link that is well worth reading. Also posted on the main thread. At the bottom is a link to each junior in the Market Vectors' proposed GDXJ gold miner ETF.
Degraaf on gold
roadrunner
<< <i>Your point on UDN is interesting, with resistance at ~28.8, I would also agree that it would be difficult for it to get through on the first try. This could give gold at least some short term pressure.
The only thing I can see that might change that is what I still feel are some imminent announcements, disclosures, or events from the whitehouse regarding any number of major issues with significant financial ramifications.
In light of your observations, I think I will lighten my position to maybe 70% on any bounce up to 1065-ish. >>
Oh boy, now im on the hook.
FWIW---I NEVER go 100% on anything. Even if I devote 10% of my money to one idea, I never put in the entire 10%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I think the consolidation period is nearing an end. It may take a few more trading days to finish up and take off, but I think the charts are almost ready for another move. There does appear to be a penant forming since last Wednesday's ATH of 1072 and Friday's low of near 1045. Since then the lows have been higher the the highs lower, with a center at 1060. The USD may bounce a bit here, but I don't think the POG will be affected significantly. I still see the max downside as ~1040, which I am prepared for. I also think SPY is ready to head higher as well, and it will drag gold along with.
Ackermen had a post where he's calling for a top for the next move of 1134 using his hidden pivot method, which tends to work well from time to time, and appears to be reasonable to me.
Edited to add:
Support for Friday is at 1048.1, 1054.5, 1058.5, and resistance at 1064.9 and 1068.9.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear