Are we seeing the beginning of the market flood of 75 Topps minis?

lsutigers1973

This was discussed when it was announced the Conlon collection would be auctioned off. Many thought it would not effect the realized prices of graded 75 Topps minis. Now it appears that the market has indeed been flooded with PSA 8-10 commons and stars. Even our own BST board has seen quite a few threads with these for sale. Prices of PSA 9's are down. Even the prices of Yount PSA 9's has dropped.

Coincidence or the beginning of the collpase?

CDsNuts

There was a time when wax and singles were like 4 times harder to find than regular 75s, and now they are 4x easier to find, especially unopened. I'm no economics expert, but I would say that's somewhat of a telling sign of what's to come.

scotgreb

Bill -- I don't deal much with higher-grade '70s commons but it seems like that market in general is weakening -- baseball and football.

Maybe I'm just noticing more but I've seen several larger lots (50-200 cards) of 8s and 9s selling below the cost of grading ($5/ea) -- even (higher pop) '72 PSA 8 commons have become very inexpensive.

It seems like a great time (for a collector) to build a high-grade registry set.

Scott

hammered

And the increase in quantity has not been met with an increase in collectors.
Most of the registry guys already have the cards they need in 9 or higher, so these new 9s have nowhere to go.

Morgoth

Yep, I think demand also might down somewhat. You have to have set collectors out there actively building to absorb all of these commons. I think the amount of new set collectors is definately down, combined with new material and maybe people selling off collections and you have a glut. Now will it eventually go back up, maybe but not if new material keeps coming out.'

BTW I wish someone would flood the market with 71 FB in high grade. I just paid 18 a common for 9 8's.

Morgoth

Even though I am guilty of it, IMO this is what's going to happen to every 70s and late 60s set regardless of sport. There is just way too much of it lying around that will eventually get graded. Even the 71 BB set will eventually go through a downturn.

IchiroDeported

it wont just be with the 75's. there is PLENTY of high grade stuff that has never seen the light of day or the grading room.

Morgoth

Sad thing is unlike comics people in the 60s and 70s kept their cards in fairly good shape. Also it seems dealers or collectors also kept unopened material as well and in large amounts.

I would truly hate to know what Frisch and some of the older guys had laying around.

Bosox1976

99% of 70's PSA 8/9 stuff seems soft - mini's no diferent than the rest.

RonBurgundy

I think in the long term only 71 baseball will have any significant value. Whatever's out there in that is countered by its difficulty and popularity. (I do think the 70 and 79 sets are underrated, however.)

As for the rest, boys, build yourself one, nice kick ass raw set and be done with it. That's Burgundy's strategy.

slantycouch

<< <i>
I would truly hate to know what Frisch and some of the older guys had laying around. >>



Wouldn't it be interesting to know?

storm888

<< <i>it wont just be with the 75's. there is PLENTY of high grade stuff that has never seen the light of day or the grading room. >>



////////////////////////////////

A few players/years might be "safe," but not many.

When I first felt the problem, I thought: "I will
just keep this stuff and stop listing it for sale."

I should have blown everything out in early 2006.

Some stuff is likely destined to be almost worthless
for decades.

smtjoy

I agree with Morgoth and others. The 60's and 70's market- demand is flat or down and supply is increasing = falling prices.

On the 75's anyone who though 20+ cases of unopened product hitting the market would not affect prices is crazy. I think 75 PSA 9's will get hit the hardest and we have not even come close to the bottom. All 75's will be lower and I dont think they will ever recover to the highs of 2 years ago (just too much product out there).

lsutigers1973

I was referring more to the quantity of these cards available now.

hammered

<< <i>I think in the long term only 71 baseball will have any significant value. Whatever's out there in that is countered by its difficulty and popularity. (I do think the 70 and 79 sets are underrated, however.) >>



I'd add 77 to that list.
Just a low time for 70s sets and graded right now.
Won't be that way for long, a few more collectors entering the fray will bring competition that those sets deserve.

caramelcollector

dropping like a rock according to VCP

thats why i like the old stuff! there is ZERO unopened product....

WinPitcher

Those cases should have been released into the hobby slowly. I know that was almost impossible.

But that is what I'd have done.


Steve

caramelcollector

that was the stupidest way to auction something...not only did they put out too much at once, they got lower sale prices


like it was such a difference between 15 cases, 20 cases, 10 cases..17 cases...very odd lot chioces...


such an overrated set IMO.....big deal they are small....NO WAY WORTH THE UNOPENED PRICE....SOON AS THEY ARE OPENED THEY WILL LOSE A TON OF VALUE

bosoxphan

I like sets where a big find is a couple hundred cards.

ken61

The 75s (mini and regular) are one of the classic Topps sets. The demand will always be there. If the prices drop for the super high-grade stuff (PSA9/10), I don't necessarily consider that a bad thing. If nothing else, it will discourage the unscrupulous sector of our hobby.

GoDodgersFan

I am collector and this is good news. However, too many folks see the 1975 set as an investment
and this may trigger some unnessary getting out sales. Only time will tell.

You combine supply > demand and a soft economy, this is what you get. I am looking to
buy a nice PSA 8 Brett just for my personal collection.

A great set for sure.

Indy78

Now's your chance to get your Brett mini. Someone just listed a ton of 6,7, and 8's tonight on the 'bay. I've never seen so many at one time for sale. Younts too.

SidePocket

HOFrs should be a different story - who really wants a PSA 9 or 10 common other than a set builder? But is any 70s product really rare?

summerof68

Burgundy hit the nail on the head. The 1971 bb set, due to the factory chipping of the black borders, will always maintain the lowest psa 8 & 9 pops from any set of the '70's.

Because of old-timers like Fritch there is still tons of vintage unopened material out there going back to 1968. As a result the pops of most cards from '68 onward will continue to steadily rise and prices will fall accordingly.

The 1971 bb set is the exception however as this year has very little unopened product left and the majority of cards in these packs will contain cards with chipped edges disqualifying them from obtaining high grades.

For the last year I have watched the majority of '68 bb psa 10 commons take a beating on ebay as the pops rise. So it would seem prudent that if your a person considering putting together a high-grade PSA Registry bb set from the '70s, and don't want to lose your butt five years from now, then the '71 set would be the way to go.

otwcards

Well, I guess we don't have to worry about 1948 Leaf Football joining the list of "flooding the market" with unopened product. I've been searching for several years for just a single wrapper. Have yet to see one! I can't even imagine finding an unopened pack, although I would be very happy if I could! That is my current Holy Grail!

grote15

Prices were bound to fall from the dizzying heights they had been at for an extended period of time, but relative to other issues froim the 1970s, the 1975 mini issue still commands better prices than most, especially when you consider the cost of unopened product which is relatively low at this point. As anyone who has actively collected this set knows, though it is not as tough to find in NM-MT condition or better than the 1971s (who can afford collecting that set in 8 or 9 grade anyway), it is an absolute bear to find centered mint cards, and many packs will not yield even one centered card out of 10. One thing to remember, though, is that now that the Conlon collection has been liquidated, 75 mini wax cases and boxes will become scarcer as the years go by, and the prices should climb as that realization hits the market. I purchased several boxes of 75 mini wax boxes at 1,000 a box after the REA auctions, a price that will seem like a real bargain several years from now.

TheVon

I agree, Grote. With the 1975 Minis I think there's been a decrease in the value of PSA 8s and a lot of the PSA 9s, but common 10s are still selling for several hundred dollars a piece and the harder cards in the set, even in PSA 8, are still fetching good money.

Morgoth

Some points

How many Conlon collections are left out in the hobby? Nobody knows if you think you do your wrong. Also weren't 75 Minis supposed to have been printed alot shorter than regular 75's. It seems there is an awful lot of unopened material and graded cards out there for such a "rare" set.

I don't expect prices to go up as collectors will get used to buying at this new low level. I think if people try to artifically bring the prices up then people will just not collect the set.

I am not bullish at all on the 71 Set as some people are. I love it and want it in PSA 8 but I think the sheer volumn of ungraded material out there will still overwhelm the sets condition issues. If only 10% are NM/MT or better doesn't matter when there are still hundreds of thousands of raw cards still out there.

One thing people forget is that in the 70s there was a decent network of hobbiest putting sets together, selling each other commons and buying completed sets from one another. I feel there are still alot of these "fresh" sets put together right from vending or packs still floating around. Heck I saw a 57 set at the national that was from a guys run of sets just like this. The thing was immaculate and graded many 9s and some 10s. So if there are 50s sets around like that I have to believe the amount of 70s sets floating around is 10X that.

I do think there will be a rise in key cards from the 70s like HOF rcs and last year cards of HOFs. In PSA 9 and 10 I feel these cards have alot of room to go up.

lsutigers1973

<< <i>It seems there is an awful lot of unopened material and graded cards out there for such a "rare" set. >>



I wasn't a collector in the 70's but I was in the 80's. I have to compare the 75 minis to 84 Donruss. It is presumed that the 84 Donruss were more scarce than any other brand just like the minis compared to the regular Topps issue. If so, why are unopened boxes so easy to find? How are BBCE and other suppliers still getting $200 a box for 84 Donruss? At least the 75's have a few HOF rookies.

Morgoth

I agree Bill, 84 Donruss is a myth. I think it was more poorly distributed than short printed. I think where it was available there was tons of it but in some areas it was never available. That is why I think it was preceived as rare, some people could never find it. There is tons of unopened 84 Donruss left out there. I am sure Frisch alone had 1000's of boxes left not to mention the box sets.

The 200 a box is still due to the fact that it has a reputation and it is still an awesome looking set. Over time it will go down in value. It's sad but 81 Topps may have a bigger HOF crop than 84 Donruss.

RonBurgundy

Who is running Fritsch's operation now?

bishop

Fritsch....Jeff ?

richtree

Hey, if there is a flood of mini's send some my way.

I don't own any 75 mini's and would love to build one after my 1975 opc is done.


lol !

bbcemporium

What does a raw hi-grade '75 mini set, with typical centering, sell for now?

RonBurgundy

What people don't see is that yeah, there's a lot of this stuff around but much of it is poor quality. Topps' monopoly hit it's peak during this decade and attention to quality control was not one of their strong suits. It is hard to put together a consistent, across the board high grade 77 or 79 set, for example. Try and do it and see how it works out. It's not as easy as you think. People want to focus on quantity and rightly so, but the relative quality of it out there still makes it a challenge to build these sets.

Morgoth

Ron you are correct on most of the material that is "available" or is carried around by most dealers at card shows. I am talking about the stuff stashed away by collectors, dealers and widows who don't even know what they have. There was a BIG card trading and mailorder movement in the hobby that was going on even in the 50s. How do you think Lionel Carter got alot of his stuff? Some of these guys doing cards also did coins so condition was important.

Believe me a majority of this material does not see normal card tables. It goes right to bigger national dealers, sometimes auctions but the bigger dealers will ebb it out into the hobby slowly over time. If say a there are 10 pristine 71 sets (as reported to me at the national) they will trickle it out over time or call his bigger clients and sell direct. Nobody ever really hears about these types of transactions but they happen all the time.

Will anyone be surprised if one day a widow of a collector auctions off 5 unopened cases of 71 topps or 20 mint sets? I would be more surprised a dealer didn't get to her first.

RonBurgundy

Oh most definitely. I've long argued that the supply of raw out there....even that going back into the 50's, is much more than we know. Absolutely I agree.

But I do think that the supply - whatever that might be- does not mean that constructing a set over time will be a piece of cake. It may affect price but may not have as much of an effect on difficulty in set building over the long haul, not just because of quality but also because collectors tend to hoard things and stash them away for years. What is being released today into the market may be tucked away tomorrow.

julen23

I am putting a pretty-dang nice raw set on e-bay next week that will have (~25 psa 8 graded cards included in it), shoudl anybody be interested.

I will post to BST message boards w/ scans.

viva '75 minis!

J

ElToroLoco

Sweet, I can't wait to build mine.

fkw

There is still a ton of unopened from the 1950s-70s, especially from 1968-76. I think you will see more of it at auction now that many are in need of some extra cash....

I even had a couple cases of '75 mini's but I sold them in the late 80's with most of my Topps stuff. I got decent $$ back then but nothing like what collectors are paying NOW for PSA-9/10 Commons (sold most of my mini's in the "5 for $1" bin)