What's the better 3-year investment: Gold or Palladium?
PreTurb
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What's the better 3-year investment of $20,000 : Gold or Palladium?
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If the economy continues to slide, and in particular the dollar, then it seems probable that gold is the better investment (I hesitate to use that word).
If the economy recovers, industry will ramp up again and palladium will gain momentum.
If I had to pick one or the other, I'd go 10 ounces of gold and a kilo of palladium
--Severian the Lame
I cringe at the thought of buying silver at the current price... I feel palladium is more likely to double in value than silver. I think there is a lot of silver that would "come out of the woodwork" at prices much above the current price.
With the twitch of the pen, the government can sign a regulation which changes the whole deal as far as these converters. Platinum and palladium are not the only two metals involved here.
Air quality regulations, fuel formulation changes...stuff like that affects which metals are used!
I hate investments that succeed or fail at the twitch of a legislators pen.
Ford Motor Company once tried to play Palladium and lost bigtime. They bought it when it was in demand and highly priced, betting it would go up. It dropped. Lost a billion dollars I think.
The future may hold interesting things for some of these metals. If some sort of fuel cell or battery technology is developed to the point of mass production and acceptance, then we have a Big New Market for one of the catalytic metals. But Which One!?!? Realize, that due to the cost, there is always research going on for cheaper materials. Expensive metals in this sense are their own enemy.
They may well end up figuring out how to work it all with Nickel or some other readily available 'junk' metal.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
tech is the leading index since the credit crisis! palladium will find itself inside more & more tech products
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1 roll of Pd / or 10 1oz bars = $ 3,500
300 oz of silver ---------------- = $5,400
Mad Money ---------------------- - = $ 600
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$ 20,000
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Silver is the mortar that binds the bricks of loyalty.
<< <i>1 roll of gold Eagles or Maples = $10,500
1 roll of Pd / or 10 1oz bars = $ 3,500
300 oz of silver ---------------- = $5,400
Mad Money ---------------------- - = $ 600
---------------
$ 20,000
I think China is who is keeping the price stable at this time--------------- >>
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
<< <i>Silver.
I cringe at the thought of buying silver at the current price... I feel palladium is more likely to double in value than silver. I think there is a lot of silver that would "come out of the woodwork" at prices much above the current price. >>
I own all three and have the following advice.
Palladium is a good choice but there are a few drawbacks.
First of all, anything over 1 once coins/bars are very difficult to sell and for the 1 ounce coins, there is a high premium to pay over spot.
If your other choice is Gold, then I would say you would have to buy SILVER instead.
Gold and silver share the same market properties - they can be purchased in any size (for very low premiums over spot) AND they are extremely easy to sell in all market conditions.
BUT the one factor that tells us that silver should be purchased over gold is the ratio between these two.
Currently at 60:1 (60 oz of AG buys 1 oz of AU) silver is 'cheap' compared to gold.
Historically, silver should be between a low of 15 to a high of 45.
Even at 45:1, at today's gold price of $1010, silver should be at $22.44/ounce.
Presently, I personally feel it's a no brainer to buy silver over all of the other PM's.
edited to add.....if this is to 'risky' for you, then I would suggest as others have, of diversifying and perhaps buying $5000 Pd; $5000 Gold and $10,000 Silver.
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It does depend on what the "mix" of your current precious metals holdings is.
If you have gold already, and don't have any palladium then palladium might be the better gambit, because it probably has more upside potential (along with possibly more risk).
As others have mentioned, palladium is an industrial metal and it's price will depend somewhat on an economic recovery. That will happen eventually. However the palladium supply is primarily subject to the whims of Russia, which may or may not work to your advantage. They are not a reliable partner.
In my own case, I think that my gold position is solid so I might be tempted to acquire some palladium. If your situation is similar, then the lower price of palladium might represent a good diversification move, along with some upside potential.
In terms of portfolio theory, diversification of risk works as well within the metals complex as it does in any other asset class. As long as the economic climate puts the dollar in jeopardy, all of the precious metals will move in the same general direction, but not necessarily all by the same magnitude. That's both good, and bad.
I knew it would happen.
There are way more industrial uses for Palladium and it's on par with Platinum in scarcity, in fact you could legitimately call Palladium rare while Gold would merely be considered scarce.
Also Gold is priced 3 1/2 times higher than Palladium, once Palladium reaches a ratio of 2:1 or less than it would be time to sell Palladium.