Barber half pop report observations...
InYHWHWeTrust
Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭
This week is the annual retreat for the interns/residents so the teaching volume for my precepting session was very light today...
So, I had been wanting to go over and look at WLH pop report in VF-XF, just to see if I was really in for another glutton-punishment project, while waiting for the Barber halves to show up. In short, there are TONS (relatively speaking, see below) listed in the pop report 1916-1935 except for 1921 something or other.
Just some rambling observations and I hope that others will post their thoughts here if they go and look or have looked recently at the Barber half POP reports. Seems like Greg B (Mr Breeze) used to do some research periodically and post comments. Sometimes good Barber talks gets buried in the megathread and we dont' get a lot of folks contributing. Anyways, here goes...
First, I looked at the VF20-AU58 tab, focusing only on VF20-XF40.
I used to watch the ZEROs (0's) in the 95s and 11s for a couple of years, as they were the last 2 in XF40 to fall. Now there are 2 and 3 respectively
The remaining 0's are:
97p in VF 35 -- who'd have thought?!! Greg, you're going to have to make your own for that VF35 set!!
1904 o in VF20
1901 p in VF20 (prob common date reason, bias= low numbers, low $$ not justify submitting vs. true scarcity)
1892 p, 1908p, 1907s in VF25
And that's all your zeros. There are lots of 1's, 2's and 3's still !
How about 92 p VF30 (1), VF35(3)??????? & 93 p VF 20 (2), VF25 (4), VF 30 (1), VF35 (1) ; and 94 p with similar low pops? 92 is the first year, supposed to be SAVED, not for midgraders!
93 p, higher mintage, not so easy!
94 p, 'reputed' already as a better date, so no surprise here with the lower mintage, and per BCCS reports, being hoarded in VF -XF.
Next, I noticed, 1913 d, VF 35 = 1 !! vs. 1913 s, VF 35 = 10 !
1915 d, should be common right, ? , VF 35 = 2, whopping 2! Hey, it's not like there was a shortage of 12p, 12d, or 15s in VF35, low $$ coins, the numbers are a whole lot higher there..... so I conclude, 15d VF35 MIGHT not be so common since other common dates are being submitted.
Ah, 1908s VF 35 (2), interesting in that both mine, 1 I have still, and 1 sold to Greg B for his set.
1905 o, the one I keep having recurring nightmares of me being in Depends and still staring that (edited) hole in my VF set-- Tyler's reassurance notwithstanding... VF20 (1), VF25(2) (have seen one of them, didn't like it), VF30 (1), VF 35 (SIX?!!!!!), It's killing me wondering what they look like. I won't comment on Tyler's XF specimen, nasty thing.
How about those Phillipine hoard dates? Everyone knows in midgrade -- original they are tougher than nails and the reputation is that 98s is the toughest, then 99s, then 00s:
98s total VF20-XF40, 33 coins
99s: 13 coins
00s: 10 coins!! VF35=1 coin. That shocked me.
Do you think it's reputation bias, people think 98s is scarcer (priced higher inthe Redbook) so that they are being sent in more than lower priced 99s and 00s? XF45-AU I am sure that above reputation fits, but it looks not to hold up down in VF, even strong VF.
General scan of XF40, lots and lots of single digits there, even less than 45s, but I would need to look more closely at that.
And my last rambling observation, just looking at total coins submitted, 1902 s is the queen at 79!! total, and 1901o close behind at 81, statistically probably a tie, given resubmissions and tags not turned in, etc. The paucity in MS drives that stat, but there are plenty of single digits in VF-XF as well.
The recent thread by Larry on the prices of Barbers also prompted me to look at the pops again. Supply: Demand. There may be a lot more collectors of WLH making the prices go up (demand), but even with the bourgeoning numbers of midgrade Barber half collectors, the demand: supply ratio means still relatively few Barber collectors to those chasing all those WLHs in VF-XF to make the WLHs so expensive.
I believe if the number of midgrade Barber chasers = midgrade WLH chasers, you would see a LOT more VF30-XF40 Barbers > $1,000.00
C'mon Barber talk! Have at it!!
Don
edited: can't spell hole
So, I had been wanting to go over and look at WLH pop report in VF-XF, just to see if I was really in for another glutton-punishment project, while waiting for the Barber halves to show up. In short, there are TONS (relatively speaking, see below) listed in the pop report 1916-1935 except for 1921 something or other.
Just some rambling observations and I hope that others will post their thoughts here if they go and look or have looked recently at the Barber half POP reports. Seems like Greg B (Mr Breeze) used to do some research periodically and post comments. Sometimes good Barber talks gets buried in the megathread and we dont' get a lot of folks contributing. Anyways, here goes...
First, I looked at the VF20-AU58 tab, focusing only on VF20-XF40.
I used to watch the ZEROs (0's) in the 95s and 11s for a couple of years, as they were the last 2 in XF40 to fall. Now there are 2 and 3 respectively
The remaining 0's are:
97p in VF 35 -- who'd have thought?!! Greg, you're going to have to make your own for that VF35 set!!
1904 o in VF20
1901 p in VF20 (prob common date reason, bias= low numbers, low $$ not justify submitting vs. true scarcity)
1892 p, 1908p, 1907s in VF25
And that's all your zeros. There are lots of 1's, 2's and 3's still !
How about 92 p VF30 (1), VF35(3)??????? & 93 p VF 20 (2), VF25 (4), VF 30 (1), VF35 (1) ; and 94 p with similar low pops? 92 is the first year, supposed to be SAVED, not for midgraders!
93 p, higher mintage, not so easy!
94 p, 'reputed' already as a better date, so no surprise here with the lower mintage, and per BCCS reports, being hoarded in VF -XF.
Next, I noticed, 1913 d, VF 35 = 1 !! vs. 1913 s, VF 35 = 10 !
1915 d, should be common right, ? , VF 35 = 2, whopping 2! Hey, it's not like there was a shortage of 12p, 12d, or 15s in VF35, low $$ coins, the numbers are a whole lot higher there..... so I conclude, 15d VF35 MIGHT not be so common since other common dates are being submitted.
Ah, 1908s VF 35 (2), interesting in that both mine, 1 I have still, and 1 sold to Greg B for his set.
1905 o, the one I keep having recurring nightmares of me being in Depends and still staring that (edited) hole in my VF set-- Tyler's reassurance notwithstanding... VF20 (1), VF25(2) (have seen one of them, didn't like it), VF30 (1), VF 35 (SIX?!!!!!), It's killing me wondering what they look like. I won't comment on Tyler's XF specimen, nasty thing.
How about those Phillipine hoard dates? Everyone knows in midgrade -- original they are tougher than nails and the reputation is that 98s is the toughest, then 99s, then 00s:
98s total VF20-XF40, 33 coins
99s: 13 coins
00s: 10 coins!! VF35=1 coin. That shocked me.
Do you think it's reputation bias, people think 98s is scarcer (priced higher inthe Redbook) so that they are being sent in more than lower priced 99s and 00s? XF45-AU I am sure that above reputation fits, but it looks not to hold up down in VF, even strong VF.
General scan of XF40, lots and lots of single digits there, even less than 45s, but I would need to look more closely at that.
And my last rambling observation, just looking at total coins submitted, 1902 s is the queen at 79!! total, and 1901o close behind at 81, statistically probably a tie, given resubmissions and tags not turned in, etc. The paucity in MS drives that stat, but there are plenty of single digits in VF-XF as well.
The recent thread by Larry on the prices of Barbers also prompted me to look at the pops again. Supply: Demand. There may be a lot more collectors of WLH making the prices go up (demand), but even with the bourgeoning numbers of midgrade Barber half collectors, the demand: supply ratio means still relatively few Barber collectors to those chasing all those WLHs in VF-XF to make the WLHs so expensive.
I believe if the number of midgrade Barber chasers = midgrade WLH chasers, you would see a LOT more VF30-XF40 Barbers > $1,000.00
C'mon Barber talk! Have at it!!
Don
edited: can't spell hole
Do your best to avoid circular arguments, as it will help you reason better, because better reasoning is often a result of avoiding circular arguments.
0
Comments
Camelot
Couple of things - as one who hunts both Barber and earlier dated walkers in VF-AU at shows, I have to say that I'm still finding a few Barber halves to buy, but no walkers other than some super common 17P's or 17S rev.....Yes, I know the Barbers are fewer in number, don't start hammering me on that - but I think the number of walker collectors continues to grow significantly. Recent auction prices of the better dates in AU (23S, 16S, etc.) continue to bring very strong money.
Next, I was pondering a dilemma since the weekend, and maybe you have shed some light on it:
<< <i>How about those Phillipine hoard dates? Everyone knows in midgrade -- original they are tougher than nails and the reputation is that 98s is the toughest, then 99s, then 00s: >>
I picked up a nice original XF45 99S on Fri. I looked at the 'scarcity rating' on the Barber website, and see it is only listed as an R3 in XF and AU, but it's an R4 in F and VF....I thought Barber halves generally get much scarcer in XF and AU....but I guess this was a 'hoard date' that did not circulate much? I still don't think it is common, but apparently more common that I would have assumed.
Great topic. The mid grades can sure drive one nuts. It becomes an obsession
A few thoughts:
I would say 90 percent of the series is sparse in the VF-XF range. One date you didn't mention is the 11-D. With a mintage in the 650K range the coin is underrated IMO. I had a heck of a time finding one. I managed to find one raw and it graded XF40. See below.
The 94 IS underated as you said. I have the only VF30 which is not the best example to say the least. This date is on my upgrade list. Here it is--
Then there is the 05-O You just don't see these. I have a old ANACS XF40 which is going in for crossover this week. MFH saw it last month. He said it may not cross, but I respectfully disagree. No pic. We'll see.
The 05 that tried Craig's patience is another toughie. I scooped up a graded XF45 a while back.
I think locating mid grades can be a matter of being in the right place at the right time. A matter of luck sometimes. Last summer my wife had surgery and I had her home and tucked in bed about 1 PM. I would usually be at work at this time. I fired up the computer and this had just been listed as a buy it now on Ebay. I mean JUST listed too---about 10 minutes prior. I bought it and it graded VF25. I think it can be a poster child for midgrade Barbers.
The 04-O is another impossible one too.
I suspect the majority of the midgrades are being held by strong hands. They can be found, but one has to really hunt and not be shy with the checkbook.
My ramble is now finished.
Tom
Your work schedule must have cleared up quite a bit.
Everything you listed is true - as I know how difficult
it is to locate so many dates in mid range VF grades.
I have not broken down the exact POP's as you have
as I have not been looking for exact mid range grades
such as VF 35 [ ie: 1897-P - and yes, Greg, you'll have
to make your own.] Recently, I discussed Craig's frustration
in locating the 1905-P in XF 45.
We seem to be fixating on certified coins and the lack of
Barber collectors; I think there are more collectors than
we realize and as older collectors can testify, most collect
raw sets.
Recently your neighbor's unregistered Proof Quarter and
Half Collections were displayed in front of us - and as we
both had trouble breathing because of all of our gasping
for breath - I realized that there must be numerous other
collectors out there who have never heard of - or care to
deal with - Registries.
There is only coin I need for my Half Dollar set that there
is no population in AU 58 - the 1897-S. I have been searching
for the appropiate NGC 61 / 62 to cross over at PCGS as AU 58.
Most of what I have seen in these grades just don't cut it for me.
I am at a loss to comprehend the sheer number of Barber Halves that
have had the life striped from them by over dipping - or - for
that matter - "conservation. " Recently, an 1893-S Half in mid range VF,
graded by PCGS, was the subject to severe criticism [ and rightfully so ].
The coin was harshly cleaned - and to compound the situation about
this coin, CAC had placed their coveted green sticker on it. The coin
should have been Body-Bagged - now called Genuine - and leave it
at that. I can fully understand the collector of raw coins who dislikes
TPG's - as there are mistakes made - and glowing mistakes at that.
I really would like to continue this - but time doesn't allow.
I sincerly appreciate the effort you expended, TwoToneVF35 [ aka:
InYHWHWeTrust, dba: UMakem.]
BTW - the POP of the 13-D in VF 35 could go up if I submitted my raw coin
from my Book 2 - Whitman Bookshelf Albums. Tougher coin that I originally
thought.
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Coin collecting is not a hobby, it's an obsession !
New Barber Purchases
Bear: I think you were once a Barber addict-- but don't tell me your rehab secret yet as I'm not ready to quit!
Walkerguy-- those Phillipine hoard dates have some interesting history! Each grade set: F, VF, XF, AU seems to have a life of its own, and now it seems, also for each of the three dates individually. I was stunned that only 10 coins 1900-S in VF-XF40. Sometimes the F-VF are more scarce. I didn't mention 1892 o, but per the BCCS census from 2007, F-VF coins were the lowest pop (not counting the micro-O).
The other sleeper coming in with only 18 coins in VF was the 1901 o. But that is all I'm going to say about it. It was barely above the branch mints from 92 and 93: 12-16 coins each.
TomBr: what can I say? you burst upon the Barber scene and have landed some amazing coins, attained unbelievable photo skills and completed your set in record time! Great, great coins you posted there and you're right, that 1902 o is THE quintessential look in choice VF-XF. If you land a BIN on ebaY once every 5 years, you're spending way too much time on the computer! LOL I hear you about the freak chance with being on the computer at and odd time of day. I have landed ONE BIN in 4 years, just this February; and it was a Saturday about 12 noon. It was the 07s, I'll see if it's in photobucket, put it on the megathread I think, but can't remember...
It was nice to have a breather today. So where did I spend my free hour? At this wretched place? I must be crazy
Hopefully he won't drop dead and have his family sell them for melt.
<< <i>I think there are quite a few in strong hands raw. I've personally seen a lot more than you describe from a single hoard in 1988. But lord knows what's happened to them since then. I had sets in 20 and 40 that I sold shortly after that. There's a local collector in his late 60's that supposedly has an AU-UNC set of halves (raw) from 1795 through 1915, missing 4 or 5 seateds. From what I've heard, they'll only ever be sold to someone paying unreported cash. No one does that anymore, do they?
Hopefully he won't drop dead and have his family sell them for melt. >>
"True Barber half collectors die with their prize coins" says ARCO, or something like that
When I first submitted my coins in 2005 or so, I had four or five pop 1's and many with only 2 or 3. In fact, at one point I owned half (four) of the XF 1910's. Not too bad considering it is a semi-key and very difficult in XF. I owned two XF 1902-O's (Craig bought one of them) which was most of the XF's graded at the time.
The middle year barbers are the best value and were the most underappreciated and underpriced in the series IMO; 00-O, 01-O, 02-O & S, 03-S (I love the 03-O too), 04-O, 05-O, 06-S, 07-S and 08-S.
Even for the middle years finding a nice Fine graded coin is mindnumbingly difficult. Anybody seen a really nice Choice Fine 1903 lately? That is a $50.00 coin. Problem is, the coins are TOO cheap in Fine and no one is willing to sell them.
Tyler
How about 1896 P in Fine, (VF, XF) as well? On ebay last night there was listed an entire set of Barber halves in a Dansco, mostly G-VG coins, typical wear, problems here and there, but not bad really. Actually a pleasure to look at, no major chrome bumper SOS pad jobs.
I would have picked out the 1896 P, looked like close to fine and the 1899o in VG or so, but the scans were too small.
I hope others will chime in, DaveB, Barberman, et al. C'mon guys, you don't have to tell all your secrets !
I just closed the hole in the 01-P in VF20, I got my grades in from PCGS just recently and I made an 01-P in VF20, it's not showing on the pop reports just yet but it will.
I also made a 13-D in VF35, that was a Pop 1 coin and I filled a hole in the dimes. Of course nobody is too exceited about an XF40 03-P Dime (I was hoping for a VF35 for my VF set.. try try again!)
Bill
By the looks of ebay auctions recently, looks like the sleepers have woken up big time. Tough market to buy into (unless you can a dinosaur dealer working strictly off the 'sheet'), but great to sell into if you have some dupes.
I'm watching some of these "sleepers" on eBay, and I think that this is a bit of a spike. Seems like there's about 3 people out there fighting over the same coins.
The thing is, I haven't seen stupid pricing on these coins elsewhere, are they bringing over sheet? Yep. Have they been bringing the same insane, stupid, retarded money at Bowers and Merena, Heritage and Teletrade? Not so much really... That being said I think that a lot of these coins are seriously undervalued and underappreciated.