Q: Do you think the price move in PMs will affect rare coins?

adamlaneus

I just wanted to ask a fresh new question.

You know, ask something pertinant and awesome that nobody else has thought of.

I think that higher PM prices might make the prices for certain coins go up. And other coins won't go up. In fact, a few might go down.

Wolf359

Gold posed to crack $1000. Will this revive the coin market?

cars

<< <i>I just wanted to ask a fresh new question.

You know, ask something pertinant and awesome that nobody else has thought of.

I think that higher PM prices might make the prices for certain coins go up. And other coins won't go up. In fact, a few might go down. >>



Shouldn't this be in the COIN forum? , I had to do it lol

mhammerman

"I think that higher PM prices might make the prices for certain coins go up. And other coins won't go up. In fact, a few might go down."

Interesting thought there. If gold holds 1000 and it may well, that will let all the marginal $5, $10 classic gold coins get a bump from the melt value which would probably involve them actually getting melted at some point but it would be good for anyone that got the coins too high in the first place and this will give them a way out. Numismatic premium fades quickly in the face of high bullion prices.

It seems that some of the scarcer stuff is still holding its value well with the possible exception of the classic $5's...curious too because I like the series. The early dates (50's) seem to still be sought after across all of the denominations but that is not new information, just an area I like to watch and lust after. It seems like some nicer stuff should start floating to the surface soon, maybe in the auctions or the B&M's or maybe at the shows. I'm hoping for a little bit of a price drop as flush buyers get their desires satisfied and us bottom feeding rag pickers can snatch something up for our humble collection; it's a waiting game at this point.

mhammerman

Actually, if you go to the PCGS option from the home menu of our sponsor, you can see for yourself. The PCGS 3000 index measures the price in the market place for various baskets of coins. The three I watch a lot are the proof gold coin index, the ms gold coin index and the generic gold index.

So far, since about Jan this year, looking at the one year chart you can see some very clear trends...

Proof gold in a dive...I would think that, as mentioned in previous post, numismatic premium decreases as base price (spot) increases and the metal is more sought after for spot rather than as a collectible. JMHO but it's what I think. Of course, that has to be weighed against the fact that there are probably a lot of folk that have very reduced descretionary funds to chase after expensive material.

MS gold in a dive...same comment as above.

Generic gold to the moon though it seems to be leveling off. Generic gold would speak more to the base value of the metal as opposed to numismatic premium and possibly the reduced asset pool that people are devoting to collecting. There was a time this year but more so last year where you could get $20's from the mid 1800's for a very small premium over spot and slabbed 63's for not much more...I got what I could and kept them. This is a good area to play in for collectors that can't pay the nosebleed prices for truly rare stuff but still want to have something of the early date range. If gold plummets again, go to the auctions and see what you can get on the cheap because there might be some very prudent purchases that can be made.

Of course, there's the Grey Sheet, and Heritage auction results. For example on Heritage, recent sales like an xf45 slabbed show a couple going for $1150 apiece just last week...around $200 over melt, in a slab, excellent type set material and not a particularly risky bullion play. A $10 lib 95-s in 53, slabbed at $603, not a bad coin for about $110 over melt...very little numismatic premium for some not so common coins and hey...you get a cool coin too all for a very small premium.

I'm aniticipating that some of the nicer material (mid level low pop original) may start to come down and become more plentiful if there are a lot of sellers because of the economic situation but on the other hand the high bullion value will come into play here to so just waiting to see where the line actually ends up, dollarwise.

So, PM price move affecting rare coins...well, what's rare and what's just desirable and prudent.

Oh well, thought I would add some comments to go with my prognostication post that preceeds this one.

mhammerman

And one more thing, since we're talking about it. Say gold does go to $1500 and all those generic US gold coins you paid spot+15% for are now worth $1500 instead of $1000, what will happen? Will it be like 1980 and the Great Melt Scene II? Will we lose all the mid level stuff to the smelter again and the price for surviving pieces doubles because of scaricity, will all the less than original surface material and damaged coins be given up for the buks, will folk just keep the best and sell the rest; hard to see why they wouldn't. Maybe the high gold prices with the personal economic distress that is upon us will be a one-two punch that brings loads of classic generic ef's and au's to the metal man. Those coins from dad, the stuff you bought when you had too much money, those old coins that are kept in the jewelry box...to the coin store with them! Or, did the cash 4 gold hucksters already scoop all that stuff up and send it to their smelter guy? It's not hard to make the case that high prices for gold coupled with the financial distress will affect the rare coins, particularly the populations of mid level generic stuff.

OK, I'll stop now, this is an excellent topic for prognistication so there ya' go.