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Very Good Info on Weimar hyperinflation, etc...

jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,947 ✭✭✭✭✭
Just found on 321Gold...

A very interesting document...

What is unusual about Professor Graham's 1930 book is that it views the events in Germany without foreknowledge of the Great Depression, the Nazi takeover, or the madness of the long-running Soviet state. In that sense, it is an innocent book. For instance, the professor makes a passing reference to what we now view as the market crash of 1929, but to him it is just another Wall Street panic, barely worth a mention — not yet known as the harbinger of nearly twenty years of depression and war.

But wait, there's more...

The Allies seized nearly the entire German merchant marine and nearly all the railroad rolling stock. Gold-mark reparations were also imposed.

Against this background, the Weimar policy of intentional currency debasement made a certain perverted sense. Until the very end, willing foreign buyers could always be found for paper marks, so the Republic could still obtain the hard currency needed to meet Allied reparation demands.


At the same time, the inflation created a capital goods boom that rapidly replaced the seized ships and rolling stock. Businesses had to choose between immediately reinvesting (and of course, malinvesting) profits in capital goods, or watching their funds evaporate overnight (literally, by late 1923).

Ahah! The Stimulus Plan!

The Weimar Central Bankers actually contended that their extraordinary printing of marks did not cause the extraordinary increase in prices. Indeed, prices actually tended, until the last couple months of the inflation, to surge a bit ahead of the printing presses in anticipation. Toward the end of the insanity, prices couldn't keep up because no one could rationally anticipate in such circumstances.

This program produced both winners and losers. Landlords lost, since rents were fixed. Mortgage holders lost, seeing their holdings diminish to one trillionth of their original gold value. The Allies never collected more than a fraction of the reparations they demanded, which did benefit the Germans to some extent. Capitalists thought they were winners as they malinvested (but by 1930, Graham reports, the German economic buzzword was "rationalization" which in practice meant the destruction of the excess capital accumulation of the inflation years). Workers, in the beginning, thought they too were receiving benefits.


And then, more...

The German economy as a whole was not greatly harmed by the short, intense inflation, but as it reached its peak, the signs of collapse were everywhere. Unemployment was very low in the early stages, but in the last three months it began to skyrocket, reaching nearly half of the working class. It appeared to Graham that the Central Bankers had stopped the inflation just in time.

But, of course, Graham did not anticipate what came next. The economic controls imposed during the inflation — price controls, export controls, mandated producer and seller cartels — all became the basis of Nazi fascist economic policy, mobilizing the German economy for the production of arms and the destruction of Europe./i]
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

I knew it would happen.

Comments

  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    From one gold mark = $1

    to

    one trillion marks = 1 gold mark.........

    amazing.....
  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The German economy was a basket-case after WW1. They had to recover from the war and whenever they got above water, they had the Allies demands staring at them. Kind of like going through a messy divorce, then getting the house with an upside-down mortgage.

    There is certainly no similarities with the US financial problems of today. (I don't know it that's what you were insinuating by your post)

    For that I would compare the crash of 1907, which was shortened by J.P. Morgan acting as Central Banker when there was no such thing.

    On the other hand, if you want a comparison with today where the Government did nothing, look at 1893, when Morgan offered to shore-up the Nations gold reserves, which were falling distressingly low. Cleveland said "Thanks, but no Thanks" and the depression continued until 1895, when Morgan insisted on fixing the problem.

    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,242 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There is certainly no similarities with the US financial problems of today.

    Come on Rick, dont rain on the parade. You're just a party pooper.imageimage
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,947 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There is certainly no similarities with the US financial problems of today. (I don't know it that's what you were insinuating by your post)

    Um, I beg to differ. The similarities weren't caused by our losing a war and having to make reparations. The massive and unmanageable debt is due to overspending for a very long time, creating unfunded liabilities up the wazoo, living like we would never have to repay it, and by shipping our productive manufacturing jobs overseas instead of having the allies seize them - we just disassembled the factories and shipped them. Germany was rebuilding - we are not. Nobody here has any forward planning, it seems, except for small businesses and they have a big target on their backs.

    It doesn't happen the same way twice, but if you truly believe that there are no similarities, just carry on.

    Sorry if I come across as pessimistic, but we seem to keep shooting our own feet.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,242 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The difference is that Germany was completely destroyed. They did not have the means to produce nor the infrastructure to deliver. It was engineered to fail by the allies. The unintended consequence was the rise of a WW1 soldier. I understand your concerns and share some of them, but there is very little comparison to Germany after and WW1 and the USA today.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It doesn't happen the same way twice, but if you truly believe that there are no similarities, just carry on.

    Try looking at our GDP in comparison to Germany's.

    Look at the amount of debt we spent in WWII and look at the hyperinflation that occurred after.. .... NOT!
    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • Wolf359Wolf359 Posts: 7,657 ✭✭✭
    Deficit spending does not cause hyperinflation. Monetization of the debt does. And that's what the FED is doing.

    Excess printing of paper currency is considered to be one of the principal causes of Hyperinflation.
    Causes of hyperinflation
  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It is not what the FED is doing, has done, or plans to do.

    Interesting critique from 2005



    There seems to be a disinformation campaign afoot
    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • adamlaneusadamlaneus Posts: 6,969 ✭✭✭
    The way I look at it is fairly simplistic:

    There's money. There's stuff.

    Stuff is what you buy with money.

    In a balanced system, the value of the money is about equal to the value of the stuff.

    Too much money or too little stuff...or both too much money and too little stuff...this is what causes money to lose value with respect to stuff.

    Right now, the US has lost of stuff. There is manufacturing, production, shipping, goods, imports, exports. Lots of stuff is going around. In fact, we are operating at a reduced capacity; we have capacity to spare and could easily ramp up. I see no shortage of stuff on the horizon.

    In fact, some of the things that have happened in the last year have caused the destruction of money. So it seems that creating money is how one, right now, would preserve the balance as well as one could.

    Once you dig into the gritty details, the whole thing becomes an evil morass. This is why I like to use a simplistic '50,000 foot' attitude.

    Absolutely everything i've read on the web reads to me like propaganda. I won't have it. Right or wrong, I like to think things through for myself. No, I do not listen to the radio.



  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's true there is nothing similar. It was really only Germany's currency that was destroyed from 1923-1924. In today's situation it's the entire world's currency system of fiat being debased and destroyed. Germany experienced a currency event. The entire world is now experiencing a currency event. We also have one set of circumstances they didn't have, no hard money system and over $1.1 QUAD in otc derivatives that continuest to cripple the banks. The BIS got "rid of close to half the problem" by revaluing derivatives to a "value at maturity" model. That successfully reduced the published amount to $593 TRILL. I suppose there is nothing similar between the two cases after all.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • Wolf359Wolf359 Posts: 7,657 ✭✭✭
    That's exactly what the FED is doing, as your own links say.
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