Price crash on the Lincoln Cents

Earlycoin

Have you been keeping an eye on the MS Lincoln Cents lately? What happened that the prices crashed so hard?

ProofCents

weak auction prices

WaterSport

Two things - by the time they get around to posting cents, a few sales have occurred so the margins between auction and postings becomes bigger. But hey, its mostly in high grades Wheats which I can not afford and high end Memorials that were never worth that kind of money to begin with and still need to drop about 50% more IMHO.

WS

drwstr123

What WS said....me too also. High end crap that was never worth the money, that only had appeal for elite registry collectors.
I'd rather acquire some high grade RBs or BNs than buy those.

ambro51

Ive got a pretty high end consignment going at heritage, for the long beach auction....and the Lincolns look to be doing VERY well with a bit less than a week to go.

The VDB DDO1 just cracked the 10K level.

Somebody is still buying lincolns, even though Jack Lee is dead.

jacktheknife

No more Tom and Gerry show. That's when it all started.

Jack

DMWJR

Most of the "high end crap" that has been floating around is not really high end and it keeps trading for less. Real, correctly graded high grade red coins will still bring the money. Did anyone see the last auction of high grade IHC's and what they went for? A few of the Lee coins that were the real deal went for a lot of money. How about that 42 Proof Aluminum? Who is bidding currently on the 25-D? The current price guide is just reflecting the price of the market and the trash that is floating in it, nothing more.

3rdtry

Huh?! I don't understand the price changes. Many of those Memorials have not traded in years. I have no idea where they are getting the new prices from (unless Gerry sold his set off darn cheap!)

Also, just an observation, it seems odd that when a price goes up, say $2000 to $3000, they updated it by $100 at a time over months... and now going down they just make one huge slash.

renomedphys

I don't think anybody really "gets it", but if you think about it like this, it might help.

The PCGS Price Guarantee is based on the price guide. That places a lot of risk on PCGS when they increase the price of a particular issue. The implication there is that it is difficult for them to rationalize a big increase, but easy to rationalize a big correction. It's really a double-edged sword for them, as regular increases backed by auction results validate PCGS' place in the market, but they also expose them to great risk when certifying high value coins.

I know the MPL world was a little dismayed recently when a few "un-warranted" price corrections took place. The value of the 1911 in PR66RB fell sharply as the result of two fugly dog 66RB coins traded well below guide at the ANA show, and poor performance by the 1914 in 66RD drove that price down as well. The 1914 also seemed to pull down the guide price of the PR67RB issue, even though none of those coins traded hands. What was unclear about the whole correction was the seemingly drastic cuts to the 1916 issues across the spectrum of colors. All of the high-end values took a substantial hit, even though none of the affected coins traded hands. It's truly hard to understand why the value of the pop 2/0 66BN was cut when the last time either one of those coins traded hands was for 25% above price guide. The pop 3/0 66RD was also cut, and those three coins have been in the same hands for at least a year or more.

Steve

<< <i>

The PCGS Price Guarantee is based on the price guide. >>



Matt,
Based on the email from DH today referencing the PCGS Price Guarantee, he says the price guarantee is based on the price a dealer would pay for the coin. This is obviously WHOLESALE price. The PCGS price guide is a RETAIL price guide.
Steve

renomedphys

<< <i>Matt,
Based on the email from DH today referencing the PCGS Price Guarantee, he says the price guarantee is based on the price a dealer would pay for the coin. This is obviously WHOLESALE price. The PCGS price guide is a RETAIL price guide.
Steve >>


Guess I missed that. I was merely stating what the CS reps at PCGS told me when I questioned them on the subject in detail about a year ago. Wow! That's quite a difference.

dbemike

And the real reason for declining prices.

"jobless rate at 26-year high"

ambro51

I did note that the main price decline is on the top pop coins, from the 30's to date. Early Lincolns are still holding values that have declined somewhat..but not drastically.

Personally, using the 1961 P as an example, the 'pre crash' listed price for an MS67 was a whopping Six Thousand Dollars. The 'post crash' price is a still whopping Five Thousand Dollars.

One grade down.......MS66, one hundred bucks.


All Plastic and Registry Driven......................and though I may take a beating for saying this....I think anyone who plunks down five thousand dollars for a 1961 Lincoln is a damn fool.

pennyannie

So the pcgs price guide is basicly worthless for most collectors?

You always read on here where a coin brings 30 percent more than the pcgs guide and then you read on here that dealers try to buy at 1/2 or less the pcgs guide price.

Then you read the sellers of anacs and ngc graded coins using the pcgs guide for pricing.

I think we would all be better off if the pcgs guide dissapeared. I hate to pay guide prices, and the bulk of the coins i sell do not sell for the guide prices.

I think lincolns went up to fast without a large enough core of collectors to maintain the pricing at those levels. ESP on matte proofs. Some are worth the big $$$$$ but most are not. It seems to me that eye appeal on MPL's has one of the largest price spreads of any series out there.

Steve

Someday we may have a price range for EVERY coin in every grade and composition. The low price would be the "generic" price major dealers would pay collectors for the coin. The high price would be the "generic" price major dealers would sell the coin for to collectors. Each dealer and collector would be able to see this price listing and then, based on the individual coin involved, a fair transaction price could be negotiated. JMHO. Steve

RBinTex

"....I think anyone who plunks down five thousand dollars for a 1961 Lincoln is a damn fool."