Dodgers fan wants to know. How valuable is Clayton Kershaw?

41GoudeyGuy

I admit it. I'm very biased toward this kid. At his age with his upside I see him being great very soon for a very long time. Nothing is ever guaranteed but the past few months Kershaw seems to be putting it all together.

This week there were rumors of Kershaw being traded to the Indians in a package for Cliff Lee. I knew this just couldn't be true. I wouldn't trade Kershaw for Lee straight up let alone with other prospects. So, I've been thinking. Who out there would I trade Kershaw for. Straight up trades only. I make no claims that the other team would be interested. In fact I'm sure most would not be interested. But, if the offer was made, which trades would I accept.

I've got three to start. There are more I'm sure but considering age, potential, cost and value to the Dodgers, these three guys top my list of who I would accept in a straight up trade for Kershaw.

1. Albert Pujols
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Adrian Gonzalez

Certainly there are more. Let's hear them. Who do you think would be fair value in exchage for Clayton Kershaw.

lsutigers1973

Kershaw is killing me in fantasy baseball so I am not fond of him right now.

joestalin

Dodger fan is on their cell phone, ask them later

jackstraw

1 Mark Kotsay
2. Adam Laroche
3. Brad Penny
4. All of the above

grote15

Kershaw is one of the most promising young pitchers in the NL...he's now allowed three runs or fewer in 13 straight starts and has only given up more than 3 ER once since April, has 110 Ks in 112 IP, and an ERA under 3. If he can cut down a bit on the walks, he can be a stud in the years to come. Dpn't forget, this kid just turned 21. The Dodgers would be crazy to get rid of him..

digicat

You're putting a pretty steep (and totally unrealistic) price on Kershaw.

41GoudeyGuy

<< <i>Kershaw is one of the most promising young pitchers in the NL...he's now allowed three runs or fewer in 13 straight starts and has only given up more than 3 ER once since April, has 110 Ks in 112 IP, and an ERA under 3. If he can cut down a bit on the walks, he can be a stud in the years to come. Dpn't forget, this kid just turned 21. The Dodgers would be crazy to get rid of him.. >>



My point exactly. With what he has done since May he's real close to being that dominate stud pitcher and at only 21 he will make that step.

41GoudeyGuy

<< <i>1 Mark Kotsay
2. Adam Laroche
3. Brad Penny
4. All of the above >>



I wouldn't trade Kershaw for ALL three guys let one of them.

41GoudeyGuy

The point wasn't to identify what would be a fair one-up trade. As I mentioned the Cards, Giants and Padres would have no interest in those trades and I'm OK with that. But, Kershaw is NOT the 4th best player in baseball. Who else should I consider in a one-for-one trade?

A 4th option:

4. Hanley Ramirez

Morgoth

Reality is Kershaw is young and under team control for quite some time. Therefore he won't be moved for awhile no matter how the dodgers play.

He would be acceptable as trade by other teams for the likes of a Matt Holliday, Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. A trade like that however would serve the Dodgers little purpose. As your just swapping a pretty good pitcher for a really good one and get what 2 to 3 more wins? I think trading minor league, every day players or bullpen guys would be the only benefit to the Dodgers at this time.

Kershaw straight up would be for the likes of

Holliday
Bay
Markakis
Adam Jones
one of the Uptons
Lance Berkman
Tejada
Carlos Quentin

MLRMLEO

I would not even think of trading him. If Billingsley can get his act right, Dodgers could have a 1 2 punch that could dominate for quite some time.

41GoudeyGuy

Sounds like we're on the same page then. There are only a very small handful of guys that I would consider trading Kershaw for because of the upside this guy brings. I would not trade him for Bay, Holliday, etc. because of the limited value these guys would bring compared to the existing options at their positions. Adam Jones is an interesting name though. I love that kid as well. Can you imagine an outfield of Kemp, Ethier and Jones? Wow. But a Billingsley, Kershaw 1-2 punch with Broxton at the end of the pen is an amazing collection of homegrown talent with some other names like Lindstrom, Martin and McDonald potential additions in the next few years.

TheVon

For as good as he is at only 21 I would be trying to sign him to a long term deal similar to what the Rays did for Longoria. It's much riskier to do that for pitchers, but Kershaw could have an amazing career ahead of him.

WeekendHacker

<< <i>Dodger fan is on their cell phone, ask them later >>

Actually, they are on their cell phone as they show up in the bottom of the 3rd and will be gone by the top of the 7th.

41GoudeyGuy

<< <i>

<< <i>Dodger fan is on their cell phone, ask them later >>

Actually, they are on their cell phone as they show up in the bottom of the 3rd and will be gone by the top of the 7th. >>



Stereotypical comments from somebody who's probably never been to Chavez Ravine.

IchiroDeported

"You're putting a pretty steep (and totally unrealistic) price on Kershaw"

agreed.

grote15

1 Mark Kotsay
2. Adam Laroche
3. Brad Penny
4. All of the above

Thank God for Dodger fans you're not the GM...

grote15

I think it's fair to say that Kershaw is fulfilling his potential rather nicely these days..

Tabe

<< <i>I think it's fair to say that Kershaw is fulfilling his potential rather nicely these days.. >>


He benefits from pitching in Dodger Stadium. He walks 4.5 guys per game away from Dodger Stadium and allows nearly half a runner more per inning.

Kershaw is having a fine season but averaging barely 6 IP per start with a 2.96 ERA - pitching at Dodger Stadium - means just that, "a fine season".

Tabe

bman90278

<< <i>

<< <i>I think it's fair to say that Kershaw is fulfilling his potential rather nicely these days.. >>


He benefits from pitching in Dodger Stadium. He walks 4.5 guys per game away from Dodger Stadium and allows nearly half a runner more per inning.

Kershaw is having a fine season but averaging barely 6 IP per start with a 2.96 ERA - pitching at Dodger Stadium - means just that, "a fine season".

Tabe >>



Yes Kershaw has pitched better at home, and yes he has struggled on the road at times, but he's still very young. He's had some bad outings on the road, but I believe he still has a winning record on the road. He's young and will be inconsistent at times, no matter where he plays. Remember he's still 22 and making less than 500K a year. I'm happy with the way he's progressed. Also keep in mind, the lack of a real #1 pitcher can't be helping the young starters either.
Also, Dodgers Stadium is not the same pitchers friendly stadium as it used to be. In the past years, the pitchers definitely benefited with the extra large foul territory, but its much smaller now. The seats are right up to the field now. There are times the ball doesn't travel as well, but there are still a good amount of homers hit there too.

BTW Tabe, who's your team?

Brian

brian

grote15

He benefits from pitching in Dodger Stadium. He walks 4.5 guys per game away from Dodger Stadium and allows nearly half a runner more per inning.

Kershaw is having a fine season but averaging barely 6 IP per start with a 2.96 ERA - pitching at Dodger Stadium - means just that, "a fine season".


It's easy to say he benefits by pitching at Doger stadium, but if you look beyond the obvious, you will see that his ERA at home this season is 2.88 and on the road it's 3.08...I don't care where you pitch...if your ERA is under 3 and you have more strikeouts than IP, with a K:BB ratio of better than 2.5 to 1, you are one of the league's best. And this kid is still only 22..the walks will decline as he matures..

mcadams

+1 for what Grote said. If I could have any pitcher for the next 7 to 10 years, regardless of salary, I'd have trouble coming up with many people I'd rather have than Kershaw.

Greinke is too inconsistent and his recent outings have made me think 2009 was a total fluke for him. This time last year I would have suggested Tommy Hanson (based on limited innings, but a dominant 2009), but he has softened up a bit in his sophmore year. Halladay is better than Kershaw right now, but doesn't have 7 more years in him. Ditto for Sabathia. Ditto for Tim Hudson.

I can only think of 5 pitchers I'd take above Kershaw (in order): 1) Josh Johnson 2 Ubaldo Jimenez 3) Strasburg 4) Feliz Hernandez 5) Justin Verlander

-Michael

bman90278

<< <i>+1 for what Grote said. If I could have any pitcher for the next 7 to 10 years, regardless of salary, I'd have trouble coming up with many people I'd rather have than Kershaw.

Greinke is too inconsistent and his recent outings have made me think 2009 was a total fluke for him. This time last year I would have suggested Tommy Hanson (based on limited innings, but a dominant 2009), but he has softened up a bit in his sophmore year. Halladay is better than Kershaw right now, but doesn't have 7 more years in him. Ditto for Sabathia. Ditto for Tim Hudson.

I can only think of 5 pitchers I'd take above Kershaw (in order): 1) Josh Johnson 2 Ubaldo Jimenez 3) Strasburg 4) Feliz Hernandez 5) Justin Verlander

-Michael >>



Good reply and I can't argue with the 5 pitchers mentioned other than throwing one more in the mix...What about that skinny, long haired guy, reefer smoking dude who has won two straight CY Young Awards? He should be able to maintain his performance over the next 7 years.

mcadams

<< <i>

<< <i>+1 for what Grote said. If I could have any pitcher for the next 7 to 10 years, regardless of salary, I'd have trouble coming up with many people I'd rather have than Kershaw.

Greinke is too inconsistent and his recent outings have made me think 2009 was a total fluke for him. This time last year I would have suggested Tommy Hanson (based on limited innings, but a dominant 2009), but he has softened up a bit in his sophmore year. Halladay is better than Kershaw right now, but doesn't have 7 more years in him. Ditto for Sabathia. Ditto for Tim Hudson.

I can only think of 5 pitchers I'd take above Kershaw (in order): 1) Josh Johnson 2 Ubaldo Jimenez 3) Strasburg 4) Feliz Hernandez 5) Justin Verlander

-Michael >>



Good reply and I can't argue with the 5 pitchers mentioned other than throwing one more in the mix...What about that skinny, long haired guy, reefer smoking dude who has won two straight CY Young Awards? He should be able to maintain his performance over the next 7 years. >>



Correcto! I guess only time will tell if those mechanics will enable him to hold up over the long haul..

41GoudeyGuy

I started this thread 2 years ago and feel vindicated in my initial belief that Kershaw was going to be very special. 20 wins, beat Lincecum 4 times, beat defending world series champs 5 times. Leagues the league in K's and ERA. 23 Years old. On a contending team he is a lock Cy Young winner. On a pathetic Dodgers team he should still win the award.

Bankruptcy situation will probably delay what I hope will be a long term deal with CK to keep him in Blue for many, many years.

Today I don't think I would trade Kershaw straight up for any other ballplayer considering age and contract status. He's that good and that young. He's been injury free. But, he's a pitcher. His next pitch could always be his last.

WTCG

Dodgers have him tied up for many more years. They're not going to trade him.

digicat

The dude's in line to win the pitching Triple Crown (wins, era, strikeouts). That should be an automatic Cy Young Award lock right there.

However, considering that some writers don't realize that there is baseball on the West Coast, who knows?

WTCG

<< <i>The dude's in line to win the pitching Triple Crown (wins, era, strikeouts). That should be an automatic Cy Young Award lock right there.

However, considering that some writers don't realize that there is baseball on the West Coast, who knows? >>



The NL Cy Young will go to either him or Kennedy in Arizona. Of course we'll never know for sure given how the East Coast guys are totally in love with Halladay and Cliff Lee.

Tabe

No question Kershaw has come into his own this year. Even with his big home/road splits (1.69 ERA at home, 2.90 ERA on the road), he's been the best pitcher in the NL this year. You win the pitching Triple Crown, you deserve the Cy Young, period.

And since I missed it a year ago: my team is the Detroit Tigers, home of Justin Verlander, AL Cy Young winner

Tabe

TNP777

<< <i>....home of Justin Verlander, AL Cy Young winner

Tabe >>

and potential MVP. I'd vote for him.

Tabe

<< <i>

<< <i>....home of Justin Verlander, AL Cy Young winner

Tabe >>

and potential MVP. I'd vote for him. >>


In general, I don't think pitchers should win the MVP - especially relief pitchers. HOWEVER...

- Verlander will face over 1000 batters this year. That's way more plate appearances than any single player. You could argue that pitchers, thus, have more of an effect on the season than any one hitter. Maybe not real convincing but food for thought.

- Without Verlander, where are the Tigers? Has anybody been more valuable to his team? I don't think so. He carried the team through July when they finally got him some help. And now that he's got help, he's won what? 12 or 13 straight starts while being great every night out?

So, yeah, I'd vote for him.

Put another way: He's had a better year than Clemens had in '86 when he won the MVP - an MVP that Clemens definitely earned.

Tabe

greencrow

Happy birthday Clayton!