Help me understand supply & demand on 3 $5 gold issues?

FredF

Was flipping through the bowers & merena auction and they have a couple MS 1909-O $5's up for bids, way above my budget. They do of course have a few in AU grades as well at prices nearer what mortals can aspire to paying (still above me though). I was wondering, especially given the weakness of the mintmark on that coin and how frequently they come up for sale, why they are so expensive. There was a post on the board earlier about some Dahlonega gold and I decided to compare the 19th century southern gold with the 1909-O $5.

I picked 1857, another year where the cents changed over, for my brief research.

Heritage so far in 2009: 11 1909-O $5 gold completed auctions. Mintage: 34,200
MS-62 - $43,125
AU-58 x2 - $11,500 - $12,075
AU-55 x3 - $8,625 - $9,200
AU-53 x2 - $6,612 - $7,475
AU-50 - $9,775
XF-45 x2 - $5,462 - $5,750


Heritage so far in 2009: 2 1857-D $5 gold completed auctions. Mintage: 17,046
AU-58 - $4,887
XF-45 - $2,012


Half the mintage. Probably many fewer survive. Southern gold seems to be the subject of semi-frequent threads here, and I don't see much interest in the $5 indians. 1909-O $5's come up every month in aucution. 1857-D's not so much. And when they do - they go for less than half of the money.

Comparing the 1857-D to one of its sister coins, the 1857-C. Mintage: 31,360 very similar to the 1909-O. Heritage so far in 2009: 7 completed auctions.
MS-62 - $11,212
MS-61 - $7,475
AU-58x3 - $3,737 - $4,600
AU-55 - $2,645
AU-50 - $2,990

Reasonably close in price to the 1857-D which seems to be scarcer, but still half the price of the 1909-O.

So the explanation here has to be supply and demand, right? The 1909-O may have smaller supply but be in higher demand so people are willing to turn over those coins more quickly if they get tired of squinting to try to prove to themselves that the "O" looks sufficiently different from a "D" to warrant the super premium. With gold clearly coins get melted down so the mintage numbers aren't necessary resembling the actual supply out there.

Is the demand for the 1909-O really that much higher than the southern gold issues? Or is the supply really that much lower?

-Fred

illini420

it's the only New Orleans Indian gold, highly demanded for that alone. also demaned by anyone trying to complete a $5 Indian set. And when you can find one with a clear readable mintmark, it'll go for a premium above the guide prices for sure.

Broadstruck

Is the demand for the 1909-O really that much higher than the southern gold issues? Or is the supply really that much lower?

IMHO there's far more $5 Indian collectors then $5 Liberty collectors.

Secondly I'm certain that more collectors instantly recognize the 09-O as one of the 20th century rarities.

RYK

1) There are more collectors of $5 Indians by date than C or D $5's
2) 1909-O is a popular/key date, the only NO Indian $5, the only NO 20th century $5 and has multiple levels of demand
3) The 57-D $5 is a slightly better date Dahlonega $5, while the 57-C $5 is one of the more common Charlotte 45's
4) IMO, the 1909-O $5 is one of the most over-promoted, over-hyped, over-rated coins in the US gold series, perhaps exceeded only by the 1911-D QE

DaveG

Doug Winter believes that the 1909-O is by far the most common O-mint half eagle - he estimates that there are 800 to 1,000 survivors out of the 34,200 that were minted. (For comparison's sake, the second-most common is the 1844-O, with an estimated surviving population of 450 to 550.)

As for the 1857-C half eagle, Winter estimated a surviving population of 225-275 out of the 31,360 mintage

Winter believes that demand for the 1909-O comes from three areas: O-mint collectors, Indian Head half eagle collectors and one-year type collectors.

Personally, the coin doesn't do anything for me, but I guess a lot of other people like it.

streeter

A lot of the retail price is a function of promotion/demand. If a coin is scarce and not promoted it tends to languish.

You can't promote if you can't accumulate.........

Try mid 19th cent. 'S' 5libs. Few around in AU or better but on a scale relative to price...they look undervalued. But are they? Who cares about them? Not many. They might be good values down the line but dealers can't put their eggs in a basket for down the line value. If a dealer is to stay liquid and in business, there has to be buyers. If you are a 30 year old collector and collect as a 'contrarian'---the opposite of the market.....then they might offer opportunity.

Everybody and their cousin collect Indian gold....some by set. Easy to buy and easy to sell. Lot of info out there to learn the series. Promoted like crazy....just watch MS63 prices ride like a roller coaster.