Do Burglars Calculate ROI?
1Mike1
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I was reading the other day about someone's house being broken into and their coins were stolen. Made me wonder... why them?
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<< <i>I was reading the other day about someone's house being broken into and their coins were stolen. Made me wonder... why them?
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Jeez -- that is a great article.
It is the first I have ever seen that took a scientific look at which homes get burlarized, and which preventative measures really work, and which ones don't.
Seems like a long read, but it isn't.
Coin Rarities Online
I think like the article implies, they just look for the places that appear properous and under protected, with a good escape route.
This doesn't take a degree in rocket science.
Ray
<< <i>It's hard for me to imagine low life scum sitting with calculators and spreadsheets, trying to figure out what places to burglarize to reap the most profit with the least chance of detection and punishment.
I think like the article implies, they just look for the places that appear properous and under protected, with a good escape route.
This doesn't take a degree in rocket science.
Ray >>
I agree that burglars don't calculate their odds of success and winnings on a spreadsheet when they look for houses to break into.
But the article does seem to answer questions like:
Does a burglar alarm really deter criminals?
Does the size of your family make you more or less likely to have your house broken into?
Do deadbolts really work?
What about making your house look "lived in" when you are away?
Do fancy locks on windows and sliding glass doors work?
Once a burglar targets your house, how long does it take him/her to break in?
Most of what you see written on this subject comes from people who are trying to sell you something. These folks appear to have no agenda.
Coin Rarities Online
<< <i>Do Burglars Calculate ROI? >>
very definuitely do
K S
I definitely agree that deadbolts, window locks, etc, are pretty much just for "show" more than anything else. I've had the unfortunate experience of locking myself out of my own house (a couple of times) and found it surprisingly easy to "break in." Basically, unless you have bulletproof windows and solid steel doors with monster deadbolts, locks don't do much.
I was rather surprised by their conclusion about burglar alarms, though. I was always under the impression that an alarm tends to give people a false sense of security. In my old neighborhood, neighbors' alarms got set off by mistake all the time, and nobody thought anything of it, other than it being a big loud nuisance. If the police even showed up at all, it would usually be about a half hour or so later. If, God forbid, a real burglar were present, he could presumably take his time and nobody would even think anything of it. But I guess the fact that alarms are LOUD is where the actual effectiveness comes in, because the burglar perceives the heightened possibility of drawing unwanted attention to his actions.
<< <i>Very interesting read!
I definitely agree that deadbolts, window locks, etc, are pretty much just for "show" more than anything else. I've had the unfortunate experience of locking myself out of my own house (a couple of times) and found it surprisingly easy to "break in." Basically, unless you have bulletproof windows and solid steel doors with monster deadbolts, locks don't do much.
I was rather surprised by their conclusion about burglar alarms, though. I was always under the impression that an alarm tends to give people a false sense of security. In my old neighborhood, neighbors' alarms got set off by mistake all the time, and nobody thought anything of it, other than it being a big loud nuisance. If the police even showed up at all, it would usually be about a half hour or so later. If, God forbid, a real burglar were present, he could presumably take his time and nobody would even think anything of it. But I guess the fact that alarms are LOUD is where the actual effectiveness comes in, because the burglar perceives the heightened possibility of drawing unwanted attention to his actions. >>
I think the study differentiated between those burglar alarms that just made noise (not too effective) vs. those that were connected to a central station monitoring the situation (much more effective).
Coin Rarities Online
<< <i>I think the study differentiated between those burglar alarms that just made noise (not too effective) vs. those that were connected to a central station monitoring the situation (much more effective). >>
I'm not so sure about that... in most cases, the loud noise and/or copious amounts of illumination should be quite effective in itself, since individuals in the act of a crime generally don't want to have a lot of attention drawn to their action. Going back to my original observation, what good is a central monitoring station if the police take a half hour to show up anyway?
<< <i>Do Burglars Calculate ROI? >>
Duh.
It's called "casing".
Don't depend on your high tech motion sensors either, all you have to do is hold a sheet up while you walk,
the sensors don't even detect motion. Was I supposed to leak that out?
I use a SDB for high end stuff, and bullion.
Very interesting story. Makes sense to me
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As an aside, I'm not sure I agree with the author's use of the term "ROI". Although clearly less catchy, I'd describe what the criminals are doing as "risk versus reward". The point being a criminal has little "investment" and is likely focused on two things a) the stuff he's going to steal (reward), and b) the chance he'll be caught in so doing (risk). Then again, what do I know...
Still fascinating to read that someone's taken serious scientific rigor and applied it to the problem of home burglary & thanks again for posting it....Mike