2008-W Buffalo Unc. vs Proof
mike2009
Posts: 4
Hello,
This is my first post. Although I just joined today, this website has been saved in my favorites tab for over a year and i've learned a lot from you guys.
Anyway, I've got a question that i'd like to ask. As most of you know the 2008-W 1 ounce unc. buffalo has the lowest mintage numbers of all the buffs. This would lead one to assume that it would be the king of the series. Yet, a couple of weeks ago, I started noticing a strange trend on the PCGS price guide. The 1 ounce proof is actually valued higher in all grades than the uncirculated, even though the mintage numbers are twice as much.
This wasn't the case until very recently. My questions are , why did this happen? will it reverse again? what drives the prices on the pcgs price guide? I notice they change pretty often.
thanks in advance.
This is my first post. Although I just joined today, this website has been saved in my favorites tab for over a year and i've learned a lot from you guys.
Anyway, I've got a question that i'd like to ask. As most of you know the 2008-W 1 ounce unc. buffalo has the lowest mintage numbers of all the buffs. This would lead one to assume that it would be the king of the series. Yet, a couple of weeks ago, I started noticing a strange trend on the PCGS price guide. The 1 ounce proof is actually valued higher in all grades than the uncirculated, even though the mintage numbers are twice as much.
This wasn't the case until very recently. My questions are , why did this happen? will it reverse again? what drives the prices on the pcgs price guide? I notice they change pretty often.
thanks in advance.
0
Comments
Mike, there is simply more interest for the proof coins. Mintage is only one factor. The time since these were issued is short and with time the mintage could become more of a factor. Enjoy the boards!
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
Your observations are accurate. Since this was an abbreviated series, there's really no telling which 1 oz. coin will ultimately be the most popular, but in terms of mintage there will only be half as many people who have the 1 oz. unc as have the 1 oz. proof. In my opinion, that's significant enough to declare the low mintage unc. to be King. A couple of somewhat analogous examples might be the unc vs. proof bimetallic Library of Congress commems, or the unc vs. proof Jackie Robinson commems. In both cases, the lower mintage uncs have reigned supreme in terms of market values.
To be sure, proofs are often sought as the more desireable version of a coin. However, since the 1 oz. gold Buffs haven't been totally eliminated as a series, the 1 oz. 2008-W Unc stands as the key at this time, which is an endorsement on the face of it.
Don't get rid of your 1 oz. 2008-W Unc. Just one man's opinion.
I knew it would happen.
As for your question, I don't know too much about moderns but it is very common for them to have periods of hype and price jumps in the first year or two they are released. As an example, think of the 2008 reverse of 2007 ASE. Prices skyrocketed for a while but are now cooling off to more reasonable levels. My suggestion is to wait another year or two at least so you can see where the prices end up. Of course, it is all speculation anyways when you're talking about bullion related items!
I'd have to agree that in the long run, that unc-W 1-ounce buff will outperform the proof. Where it gets interesting is in the 2008 fractionals. As has been pointed out, usually the mintage on proofs is so much higher than uncs, that the uncs perform better (when mintage is low). However, with the buffs, the proof mintages were just about 30% higher on the 1/4s, two percent for the tenths, and a lot LOWER for the 1/2s. Because of this, I expect the proofs to outperform the uncs in all of these categories. Wish I'd bought more!
No more unc buffalos
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
Here's another related question. On modern bullion coins that have very limited mintage, such as the buffaloes, how important is it over the long run to have one graded 70 instead of 69?
It seems to me that so many of them are graded 70, that it is nothing special anymore. Will the 70's always bring substantially more than the ones graded 69?
<< <i>Thanks for the replies everyone.
Here's another related question. On modern bullion coins that have very limited mintage, such as the buffaloes, how important is it over the long run to have one graded 70 instead of 69?
It seems to me that so many of them are graded 70, that it is nothing special anymore. Will the 70's always bring substantially more than the ones graded 69? >>
There are not very many graded PCGS 70, there are a lot that are graded as 70s from other TPGs. The PCGS graded examples are the real PQ ones IMO.
They say that the blanks are at the mint now. no date given when they wood be ready.
http://editions.amospublishing.com/WDCN/Default.aspx?d=20090727&pagenum=1&f=
and by the way...
To "MODERN JUNK"
Great looking coins. I like lower mintage coins as a rule. I also like the looks of proofs as a rule. However with this particular coin I prefer the look of the Unc coin.
In general I prefer my moderns to be in original US Mint packaging. I need to use a loupe to see the difference between a 69 and a 70 so the difference in price isn't worth it to me.
Here is one in Celebration packaging:
<< <i>Thanks for the replies everyone.
Here's another related question. On modern bullion coins that have very limited mintage, such as the buffaloes, how important is it over the long run to have one graded 70 instead of 69?
It seems to me that so many of them are graded 70, that it is nothing special anymore. Will the 70's always bring substantially more than the ones graded 69? >>
I'm sure 70s will always command some kind of premium, but I think that in most cases it's silly to spend more than a small amount to get these instead of the 69s. My own preference is to keep them in OGP, which is a much more attractive presentation and will, I think, in the long run command a bigger premium. Quality is so good on most of these that the difference between a 69 and 70 comes down to how much coffee the grader drank that morning.
The future bullion buffaloes should sell 100,000 or more each year so the 2008 w will always be the low mintage. It would take a massive shortage to ever come close to that mintage again IMO.
Also since the mint now claims they are required by law to press these bullion coins they will do these before the proof. I am hoping myself for a low mintage proof this year.