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July gold and silver trading thread

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  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    $109 BILL was the number of 2/5/7 yr bonds being offered this week. Figure on approx $100 BILL every 2 weeks through the end of October though I'm not sure of the exact # (approx $600 BILL left after this week).

    I agree with Cohodk's general assessment of what's coming in August. The Yuyanggold.com 3 month chart was fairly accurate for the general trend in June-July. They had the bottom in late June and the top around July 25-26, followed by a correction this week. Now calling for a slight pull back through early next week and then final bottoming at the end of the 3rd week in August. My only comment was that they sort of missed the dramatic bottom and rise centered on July 13th. The Gann turn date for gold is August 22nd which means the 21st (Fri) or 24th (Mon).

    More than likely gold will bottom in the 4th week of August following gold futures/options expiration and the 3 day 2/5/7 yr bond auctions from Aug 25-27. That's assuming a decent bond auction and continued flow of paper on the Comex. One of these days a really bad bond auction is going to be a catalyst for a jump in gold. The 3/10/30 yr auctions on August 11-13 will be more critical and probably more heavily supported/managed. That would be an opportune PPT week to ensure gold gets "managed."

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,258 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold has managed to climb back to $940. I expect it to hit $945-948 overnight or tomorrow. What it does there is hard to say. tomorrow is another summer Friday, I'm not expecting much.

    $945 will be a pivotal point. It could be the beginning of the second leg down of equal size to the first leg down we just experienced, which was ~$30. So a rise back up to $945 and down again could bring us down to $915. If gold powers through $945, then we're probably back on track for $990.

    Equities is another wild card here. The rally seems unstoppable. It is overdue for a rest or consolidation, but the strength of the move can't be ignored. It can continue.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Nice gold move! I didn't expect such a quick move to $943 then within a few hours to catapault straight to $953 after looking like $944 would form a tough wall. If I was looking at the chart upside down I'd swear the PPT was in on it (lol). A lot of short stops just got taken out very quickly. The banks will need to step up their short buying pretty quick to nip this in the bud. Gold is following the same general path it did in 2007 where it make 4-5 attempts at $700 before finally punching through in August. The banks dumped a lot of their shorts over the past few days and made their money. They are probably dumping their longs as we speak and piling up on the shorts.

    Gold moved counter to 10-30 yr bond yields which is the first time in while its done that. Bond yields had been weakening the past few days so I figured gold would follow eventually. The Euro is up strong and getting very close to 1.43 which would which suggest a dollar tailspin into the 77's or lower. That will trigger PC's $960-$990....or higher. The dollar holds the key right now. Bond prices up and dollar tanking. So much for a safe haven. Gold, bonds, Euro, and stocks are the safe havens right now. After all the manipulations this week to support the bond auctions I guess anything was possible today. And we got it. Like PC I was tempted to buy in yesterday but thought more downside was right around the corner. More waiting from here.....

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,258 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I am shocked as well. I did open a small position again, and I am looking to add if it gets anywhere near $948 or so. I think $945-948 is now support once again, I don't see this giving away.

    Edited to add: Holy silver! Nice jump today for the white metal... $.40 at the moment!
  • ksammutksammut Posts: 1,076 ✭✭✭
    Silver now +.45

    Silver mining companies moving up nicely.
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  • << <i>Nice gold move! I didn't expect such a quick move to $943 then within a few hours to catapault straight to $953 after looking like $944 would form a tough wall. If I was looking at the chart upside down I'd swear the PPT was in on it (lol). A lot of short stops just got taken out very quickly. The banks will need to step up their short buying pretty quick to nip this in the bud. Remember, gold has NEVER ended a month above $939. This would be the first if it closes above $940. And a monthly close above $950 would be very bullish. Gold is following the same general path it did in 2007 where it make 4-5 attempts at $700 before finally punching through in August. The banks dumped a lot of their shorts over the past few days and made their money. They are probably dumping their longs as we speak and piling up on the shorts.

    Gold moved counter to 10-30 yr bond yields which is the first time in while its done that. Bond yields had been weakening the past few days so I figured gold would follow eventually. The Euro is up strong and getting very close to 1.43 which would which suggest a dollar tailspin into the 77's or lower. That will trigger PC's $960-$990....or higher. The dollar holds the key right now. Bond prices up and dollar tanking. So much for a safe haven. Gold, bonds, Euro, and stocks are the safe havens right now. After all the manipulations this week to support the bond auctions I guess anything was possible today. And we got it. Like PC I was tempted to buy in yesterday but thought more downside was right around the corner. More waiting from here.....
    I have never seen the gold price do this before! I guess I was right to buy more ounces at $927.00 the other day. I wonder if it will hold up?
    roadrunner >>

    Many successful BST transactions ajia
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  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    COT results were mildly shocking in that the commercials were not adding to their gold shorts for the past week, but rather buying longs and selling some shorts. Both gold and silver futures Open Interest fell from last week with gold losing about 4600 contracts. The Short to Long ratio fell slightly to 3.21 from last week's 3.26. Did the commercials give up this past week? Maybe figuring to allow gold a last summer surge, profit on their longs, and then dump it hard from a higher number? The short positions in silver were up +2000 contracts. In the dollar not much change with open interest falling from 27,000 to 25,800 essentially all on selling short contracts. The ratio of Longs to Shorts increased slightly from 4.35 to 4.73. The ratio should peak as the dollar hits a new bottom.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,258 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, congrats to gold. My accounts recovered nicely, but I did sell some a bit early in the high $940's. I had a sell order in as I never expected it to explode fast like that. I'm sitting at about a 60% position. My plan is to buy on any dip into the $940's, if we get one. Here's where the patience and skill comes in. I'm sure early next week gold will look like it's going to take off and I'll up to a full position just before it dips back to $945 or so. I have to keep my patience this time. Today's trend did exhaust the chart energy so it will need to consolidate for a short while; however, there are some instance like we're seeing right now in the SM where the chart keeps going up despite being exhausted.

    A good quick little page comparing today's market to that of 1929-1930:

    Good bye July, Hello August.Article
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