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Sperber on Accurate Pricing....

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  • mikeygmikeyg Posts: 1,002


    << <i>Sometimes the business talk takes the fun out of collecting.

    I guess I am going through a jaded phase. >>

    image
  • OK ... my post on another thread was ignored sooooooo...I guess I can post similar info here and it can be ignored in two places at the same time... image


    As I understand it... there is a "thing" called the "Coin Dealers Network" ... it can be accessed on-line with a subscription/membership. This is a central "trading tool/forum/network" where dealers can post "bids" for coins they are "looking" for... other dealers can post "asks" for coins they "might" have for sale... NO actual sales need to take place for these "bids" and "asks" to be posted... Grey sheet is based on these "bids/asks"...

    In other words... there is no relationship even intended between the grey sheet and known actual completed auctions or sales...

    Anyone is free to draw their own conclusions as to what this really means... such as the simple fact that a price on the "sheet" could easily be manipulated by some who might have a reason to do so... image


    Consider VF-AU Barber quarters and halves...especially slabbed ones...and even "more" especially PCGS... check any auction results for the past few years... say a 1909-O Barber quarter... sheet has been pretty much stagnant at $150 for VF20 during this time YET it routinely sells for 2-3X that...

    ...sheet is a guide... on that I wholeheartedly agree with Laura...even if she doesn't use spell check image

    edited to add..."and not all guides actually get those they are guiding safely to their intended destination" image
    Re: Slabbed coins - There are some coins that LIVE within clear plastic and wear their labels with pride... while there are others that HIDE behind scratched plastic and are simply dragged along by a label. Then there are those coins that simply hang out, naked and free image
  • GreeniejrGreeniejr Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭
    It is not just dealers who are "slaves" to the sheets. Anything significant that comes in I always run through on Heritage to get the recent prices for a comparable piece. There have been several times where we have made an offer and had it laughed at because the sheet is 10-20-30% higher. This is especially the case on certain issues where there are several records per month on the coins. It is a two way street.

    We have another customer who came in to purchase a substantial coin and he was all excited that he bought a condition rarity Morgan at 50k back of bid at FUN. We informed him that he paid a fair market price seeing as the number two bid on the coin is around what he paid.
  • SeaEagleCoins - the discussion of price manipulation is addressed in many places by Bowers' books, the Survivors Guide num news articles. You make excellent points with bringing up this issue.

    All I ask from my coins is:

    1) it has a green or gold CAC sticker,
    2) it does not have a "Made in China" stamp on the back,
    3) they are shiny or have pretty colors.

    image
    Very Positive BST Experience with: guitarwes, ibzman350, jmcu12, Bamafan27, OnlyGoldIsMoney
    Reference: Coin Links
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    Nothing is as accurate as a major dealer buying

    and selling coins on a meaningful scale and on a

    regular manner. Individual auctions can be deceiving

    if collusion occurs , If key bidders fail to show up or if

    the auction was a just a matter of bad timing. On the other side

    a bidding war between several major bidders, can give the illusion

    of a higher price to a series. All coin price sheets are out of date

    the instant they are printed. They are slow to show price

    declines and increases do not differentiate between PQ for the grade

    coins and just made it for the grade coins.






    I believe what Laura had to say was accurate. Most active dealers should

    have a fairly accurate feel for pricing for the series that they specialize in.

    Nothing can take the place of active buying and selling on a day to day

    and show to show basis. It is a fact, that there are a number of series that

    are grossly undervalued in proper grade and a number of series that are

    grossly overpriced on the various price sheets. To some degree, buy and

    sell prices can be manipulated to give the appearance of strength or weakness,

    depending if some dealers are ready to unload or to stock up.



    I do find price guides somewhat helpful in a macro basis, but usually find that coins

    plummet in value after I buy then and seem to increase in value after I sell them.

    I must be a true collector.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,268 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The coin in question is a joke and most likely DRECK at 150k. WHY? 1. Collector made an offer based on sheet, Legend passed and then WHOLESALED the coin out for NOT A GREAT DEAL MORE MONEY. >>



    Based on this quote from the article, how do you figger that?



    << <i>We did end up WHOLESALING the coin immediately for much more than the $130,000.00 we were offered! >>

    theknowitalltroll;
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,412 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Essentially, the complaint is that it's not always easy to sell a coin to somebody who doesn't fully appreciate it. No sympathy here.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • IGWTIGWT Posts: 4,975
    Essentially, the complaint is that it's not always easy to sell a coin to somebody who doesn't fully appreciate it. No sympathy here.

    The price will be 5x more when they finally figure it out.
  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 7,736 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The next chapter will be written when the market resides a bit more and/or the current assumed "retail" owner decides to sell it and it goes for 120k! I mean there is absolutely no guaruntee that the market will remain buoyant in whatever segment this coin belongs to.

    Another factor is that if the potential customer had been sold that coin and the current owner would then possibly be in the market for yet another coin and thus more total sales.
    I am glad this first customer held his ground and hopefully will be rewarded. It is a shame that he was stuck to CDN regardless of the coin being worth more or less than this stated value. Would have been nice to know what coin it was, but understand why this can not be revealed.
    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • MFHMFH Posts: 11,720 ✭✭✭✭
    Someone who has their fingers in the day to day coin business with
    deep pocketed clients is someone I listen to.

    I do not have access to the CDN price guide and the Grey sheet
    is not too accurate - and the PCGS price guide is a tad high for
    the series I collect in some regards and a tad low in others. The
    same thing can be said for Numismedia - it compares with the PCGS
    guide.

    Its obvious that two identical dated and graded coins from the same service
    can have two different prices. It seems that the CAC stickered coins now
    command a premium - however prior to the Green/Gold Beans - it was great
    eye appeal which commanded premiums over the coin's identical sister.

    The average collector - such as myself - tries to secure the nicest
    coin for their collection that they can afford and to do so for a fair
    price. The auction venue seems to be the best way of securing what
    I'm looking for. Of course I also purchase coins from full time / part
    time and vest pocket dealers. I feel that having a strong relationship
    with a good mix of all these resources works the best for me.

    I rarely - if ever - throw down the gauntlet with a dealer who has a fixed
    price of what I'm willing to pay for a coin. The scenario Laura mentioned
    about the collector's offer of $130K and her immediately wholesaling the
    coin to another dealer for substantially more doesn't raise any eyebrows here.
    She knows the market - she knows her clients [ and co-dealers ] and knows
    exactly what the market will bear when she buys for inventory.

    Side Note:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Laura was in the center aisle front seat during the Dale Friend Platinum sale;
    I was sitting along the right side aisle with the Barber Gang: Dale, Steve Duckor,
    Glenn Holsonbake, Peter Shireman and Harry Laibstain.

    Laura was the winner of a very special 1892 Phila issue - and she paid dearly for it.
    I think we all knew she already had a ready buyer for it.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I normally just ask if their price is firm and usually the dealer will tell me
    their acceptable lowest price. If its within the range I feel the coin is worth
    [ to me ] then I usually agree to the deal.

    Although I have not bought too many coins from Laura, I have been delighted
    with all of them, especially my last purchase - a fantastic 1901-O Quarter in 64.
    I paid a very small premium over the PCGS price guide for this coin [ which happens
    to have a CAC Green sticker ].




    Mike Hayes
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Coin collecting is not a hobby, it's an obsession !

    New Barber Purchases
  • Bayard1908Bayard1908 Posts: 4,091 ✭✭✭✭
    The collector in question almost certainly has more pricing information than the Greysheet.

    I suspect he said something to Laura such as, "I know the recent auction prices; however, I believe the market has fallen and will continue to fall. I won't insult you by offering less than sheet; but, sheet is as high as I'll go."
  • There are always 2-sides to the story. I don't believe Sperber's story is the "entire" story. image

    If the person has $130,000 to buy on a phone call from Laura's shop - then the buyer is already in the loop and connected. He isn't the type of coin collector to be seen buying an 1881-S $1 PCGS MS65 on auction day.
    I believe, as mentioned already, he probably played hardball and gave a firm bid of $130,000 - and Laura didn't like the idea to much. She knew she could get more for it and did. What we aren't hearing is what the $130,000 bidder had in mind. Maybe that was his top bid knowing the market has been in a tailspin for awhile and the economy isn't exacting bouncing up in the air right now.

    Every situation has two sides. Both parties have a way of making their side of the story sound so compelling. image Laura has the website platform - and reader audience - to present her case which describes the bidder's outrageous behavior on this insulting $130,000 offer.....
    Very Positive BST Experience with: guitarwes, ibzman350, jmcu12, Bamafan27, OnlyGoldIsMoney
    Reference: Coin Links
  • mrpotatoheaddmrpotatoheadd Posts: 7,576 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Both parties have a way of making their side of the story sound so compelling. image Laura has the website platform - and reader audience - to present her case which describes the bidder's outrageous behavior on this insulting $130,000 offer..... >>

    Speaking of "making their side of the story sound so compelling", I didn't see where she described the buyer's behavior as "outrageous" or the offer "insulting".

    But then again, that's just me... YMMV. image

    PS:

    Your
    Mileage
    May
    Vary

    Sorry for any confusion. image

    edited- spelling and other stuff.
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    I agree with Mr Potatoheadd, No one insulted anyone.

    The dealer believed they could get a better offer for the

    coin and thus declined the collector's offer. This happens every day

    many times over. Let us not read too much into a statement

    thereby turning it into a novella.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • mrpotatoheaddmrpotatoheadd Posts: 7,576 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Let us not read too much into a statement

    thereby turning it into a novella.image >>

    But that would make the threads soooo much shorter... image
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,412 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Every situation has two sides.

    Your speculation about this transaction may be 100% correct, but the fact remains that many deals fall apart in exactly the way Laura said.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.


  • << <i>

    << <i>Both parties have a way of making their side of the story sound so compelling. image Laura has the website platform - and reader audience - to present her case which describes the bidder's outrageous behavior on this insulting $130,000 offer..... >>

    Speaking of "making their side of the story sound so compelling", I didn't see where she described the buyer's behavior as "outrageous" or the offer "insulting".

    But then again, that's just me... YMMV. image

    edited- spelling. >>



    One does not need to see something explicitly, it can be implicit as well. image The first few lines of the below article seems to point out that Sperber believes sellers are demanding prices that are to high in some circumstances, and the market has changes from prior days....can she have it both ways?


    When It Comes to Selling, What are you People Thinking?
    Posted: May 17, 2009 08:35 AM CST
    "Don't people know the coin market is not what it was six months ago? Recently, we have been offered some incredible coins at bizzare prices. Each person was telling us their sob story as to why they had to sell. Yet, none of the coins offered were even close to reality. Yet, collectors think because their coin is a monster, they can ask ridiculous prices-and that we MUST pay them that. NOT!..."
    Very Positive BST Experience with: guitarwes, ibzman350, jmcu12, Bamafan27, OnlyGoldIsMoney
    Reference: Coin Links
  • mrpotatoheaddmrpotatoheadd Posts: 7,576 ✭✭✭


    << <i>One does not need to see something explicitly, it can be implicit as well. image >>

    I'll admit that *is* a convenient way of getting someone to say something they didn't really say, but is what you want to imagine they did.

    I have never met Laura or had any online conversations with her, but from what I've gathered from her writing, she's not particularly shy about speaking her mind. So I'm wondering why anyone would need to pry a meaning out of her words that's not there in day-glo neon to begin with. image
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The first few lines of the below article seems to point out that Sperber believes sellers are demanding prices that are to high in some circumstances, and the market has changes from prior days....can she have it both ways?

    Yes, she can have it both ways. When a collector is firm at $3.5M for a coin that Laura and I think is worth $1.5M then someone is out to lunch. And there's no reason for a dealer to sell a coin that comes along once every few years, is CAC stickered in a series notorious for doctored coins,....and has a recent auction price 30% higher.... for greysheet ask.
  • Laura has now aired this laundry in public.


    << <i>We were offered $130,000.00 for the coin by a collector. Sounds reasonable-but it was far from what the coin was worth. The collector had no other information to go on. We missed placing the coin with him, and he most likely will never buy one because they all will be too expensive. >>


    Now I could be wrong but this "collector" probably peruses her website from time to time and will read about themselves. He will find out that he is uninformed and will most likely never own this coin because he was not willing to pay up. Only those two know how the conversation went down. I would think for 100K+ an explanation of why this was a “rare opportunity” and a fair price was presented.
    Was this a current Legend client or someone she plans on never dealing with in the future? After being called out would you be interested in dealing with her?
    OLDER IS BETTER
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Was this a current Legend client

    no
  • mrpotatoheaddmrpotatoheadd Posts: 7,576 ✭✭✭
    I would imagine that in just about any transaction, either party could find a reason to be upset if they set their mind to it.

    I'm not really sure why so many people seem to want to do that, though.

    Especially when it's a transaction they weren't involved in.

    image


  • << <i>Only those two know how the conversation went down. >>



    Sorry TDN. I stand corrected.image
    OLDER IS BETTER
  • pennyanniepennyannie Posts: 3,929 ✭✭✭
    What was the coin that got wholesaled out?? If it was that great it would not have been dumped for less than full retail.
    Mark
    NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
    working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!

    RIP "BEAR"
  • CalGoldCalGold Posts: 2,608 ✭✭


    << <i> What was the coin that got wholesaled out?? >>



    What difference does it make? It is an exemplar for a point about the limitations inherent in using the grey sheet for pricing rare coins that do not trade on a regular basis.



    << <i>If it was that great it would not have been dumped for less than full retail. >>



    You think it is so easy to move a six figure coin in this market? They sold it to another dealer who offered a price that met their satisfaction. So what? Were you ready to step and buy it? You don’t even know if Legend owned it and made a killing on resale or was selling it on consignment for a client and took the first offer that met their client’s selling price and left them with a tidy profit.


    CG
  • ArizonaJackArizonaJack Posts: 4,029 ✭✭✭
    Skipping and hopping over this novel of a thread will have many of us on the sidelines getting back to reality. We know little or nothing of the rare coin biz. I would take TDN and LS at their word far quicker than I would a blogger on any website.

    It is truly humbling to be able to read and converse in these high dollar whale threads.We should ( most of us ) consider this a priveladge.
    " YOU SUCK " Awarded 5/18/08
  • bookmarking and studying all of LSs articles.

    (lately I've been paying up for certain coins which appeal to me- a little anxiety there. Have also been getting some very nice coins at rather large "discounts" from guide or reference levels: that's SCARIER!!)
    WILL WORK FOR CENTS, QUARTERS, HALVES, DOLLARS....

    1879-O{Rev}: 1st coin of my "secret set"
    imagemy eBay
  • RBinTexRBinTex Posts: 4,328
    "Many of her reports are annoyingly self serving, e.g., someone missed a big opportunity by being unreasonable and not selling to or buying from Legend. The not so subtle subtext is that you should be happy to accept Legend's offer or pay Legend's price."

    image
  • orevilleoreville Posts: 12,138 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Part of the problem is that Laura has for the last 4 months been preaching restraint and careful buying and to not overpay for coins that have been dropping in price.

    When the potential customer did that, Laura was apparently not able to convince such buyer that (a) this coin was an exception to the latest market rule and (b) perhaps Laura could have given the prospective buyer a but more assurance in such coin such as an slightly extended money back guarantee. etc.

    Unfortunately, we do not know all of the facts here, but Laura's point is well taken that the greysheet numbers are not cast in stone. This applies to even $5 coins that are special condition-wise which should be bought for $8, for example.

    Example, we have heard all about the free-falling prices in Franklin half dollars. Once in a while, a proof set that has all cameo or deep cameo proof coins in them should go for way above the greysheet ASK price.

    I am reminded of paying ABOVE CDN ASK from Jonathan Kern. A very, very good dealer. He offered me an unprecedented TWO YEAR money back guarantee on my 1856 FE cent in PCGS AU-50 (OGH). That was in the days after 9/11/01. That certainly convinced me.

    Perhaps a seller who wants to sell a coin in this soft market and the coin is priced strong, perhaps a strong buy back provision might help complete the sale? Especially if the seller believe in the coin he or she is selling.

    A Collectors Universe poster since 1997!
  • shishshish Posts: 1,178 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Great article and threat. Here's my beef.
    The CDN states the following on their web site “The Only Source for Accurate, Timely & Unbiased Rare Coin Pricing Information!” HA!
    The front page of the current Newsletter in the section titled Using the CDN Quarterly. “CDN publications report prices based on national dealer-to-dealer buying and selling information. Rarity also plays a key role in selling prices, with a substantial premium asked for extremely scarce coins; the wholesale asking price may be multiples of the Bid price. These wholesale prices should not be misinterpreted by retail clients as levels at which coins can be bought and sold; wholesale buying requires a substantial market presence.” If whole-sale buying requires a substantial market presence then no wonder Newsletter prices for rare coins are obsolete.

    Laura said “I have spoken to the people at CDN, they tell me I am the only one who complains. What they do not realize is the dealers know it's a waste of time talking to them. Since I last had an encounter, nothing, not one single method of price reporting has changed-that I am aware of.”
    I understand her frustration! I too have contact the CND editor on several occasions and was informed that only dealers can provide them with price information. He suggested and I confirmed long ago that some dealers refuse to raise bid prices. Many will admit that they hope to use Grey Sheet prices to buy coins well below their current market value. He recommended that collectors contact their dealers and make bids that the dealers can forward directly to the Newsletter or publish a buy price and notify the Newsletter editor. This appears to be a valid method of updating Newsletter prices provided dealers are willing to cooperate. The CDN is asking dealers to do all the work associated with pricing data. Unfortunately relying on dealers to provide price data has proven to be an ineffective way of obtaining and maintaining accurate prices for rare date coins.

    Only price information that accurately tracks current price trends can provide dealers and collectors with the information they need to make informed purchases and sales.
    Despite several attempts over the years, I have been unable to facilitate changes in the Newsletter prices for rare coins. I encourage dealers to contact the Newsletter and collectors to contact dealers with bids that reflect current rare coin market transactions. However, large scale dealer participation may prove to be a formidable obstacle. Some dealers are concerned that accurate price guides will reduce the buy/sell spreads and lower their profit margin. Yet many dealers I know are convinced that this view is both shortsighted and unfounded. Several veteran dealers said they have never been able to buy original rare coins at Grey Sheet prices.
    I am acutely aware of the work required to accurately determine market values for rare coins but I am convinced that it can be done. If the Newsletter analysts are willing to focus on and accept new price information, they can quickly adjust their prices. When accomplished this price information will serve to strengthen and expand the coin market.

    Until the CDN staff implement significant changes in the way they collect and report there price data I find the CDN almost worthless.image
    Liberty Seated and Trade Dollar Specialist
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Very well said. 100% what she was writing about.
  • pennyanniepennyannie Posts: 3,929 ✭✭✭
    I would not put much faith in any dealer buyback. Here today, gone tommorow.
    Mark
    NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
    working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!

    RIP "BEAR"
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    THAT IS NOT TRUE. SOME DEALERS HAVE

    BEEN IN BUSINESS FOR OVER 6 MONTHS.
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,412 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Why would an honest dealer offer an extremely tight spread on an extremely good coin? The only answer I can come up with is that the dealer believes that the "buyback" is very unlikely to be executed.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.

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