Current market trend
akuracy503
Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭
Would like your feedback on market trend with all sports cards, a lot of variables I know...but share what you've been following and how the prices are reacting.
I've noticed a lot of vintage pre-post war graded baseball has dropped %10-%15 pretty much across the board for the cards i've been following, this is compared to about a year ago.
On this trend I think we'll continue to see prices drop even with the higher demand HOF's...maybe another %15 drop before it starts to stabalize?
It's not looking good, i'm glad I'm in it for the sentimental value.
I've noticed a lot of vintage pre-post war graded baseball has dropped %10-%15 pretty much across the board for the cards i've been following, this is compared to about a year ago.
On this trend I think we'll continue to see prices drop even with the higher demand HOF's...maybe another %15 drop before it starts to stabalize?
It's not looking good, i'm glad I'm in it for the sentimental value.
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What is the real problem with the diminished value of cards? Powersellers with huge inventory dumping everything they have. Add the hurting people selling off their cards and the market is flooded, thus driving down price tags.
Big cards though still have their value (52 Mantle for example)
Patrick
but i think it's a great time to buy now, either way for personal collection or investment
You know who i'm talking about...the 007 and zone etc stores...
Are these sellers just filthy rich and trying to buy enough inventory to monopolize the vintage graded market?
Obviously they can afford to sit on these cards for years without worrying about actually selling them at a fair market value.
I'm not hating on them, just curious what their business model is....
Someone please explain.
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They can't sit on it forever. Eventually it will have to move, potentially at a loss, but maybe at a gain if they sell to the uninformed. Their alternative is to hold onto it as part of their collection.
How long it takes them to realize this truism of economics is anyone's guess.
Finally, I don't have any clever quotes from Confucius. Sorry. Check with somebody else.
Their business model is buy (somewhat) low, sell high. To the uninformed I might add...
Really? Do you have any examples where 707 has done this?
IMO his business model is to sell cards at his price like any other dealer.
If an uniformed collector happens upon his site and pays his price it is NOT because
he somehow directed him there with some slick ad campaign. 707 simply does not want
to 'give away' his inventory. From what i understand he pays strongly for items he wants or needs.
I have probably bought from him at least 10 times and I can assure you I am informed.
As for buying 'somewhat low' and selling high isn't that what a retail seller is supposed to do?
Steve
CircaJerk Antiques
A couple sets I sold recently went for far more than I expected.
And checking VCP prices, I have not noticed across the board decreases - some issues have even increased.
If some card prices are dropping, it's probably more a result of increasing pops in that particular set than the overall economy.
Also, bidding activity has stayed the same (if not increased) on my auctions over the past couple years.
This is only my personal experience, so my viewpoint is limited, but more evidence can be seen in the extraordinary prices that some sellers (prewarcardcollector and Klinger83) still get for their auctions.
I bought a complete set of uncut, mint, 1966 Bazooka panels from Prewarcardcollector two years ago for just over $1000. I think those would get double that today, even with a recession.
<< <i>I've noticed a lot of vintage pre-post war graded baseball has dropped %10-%15 pretty much across the board for the cards i've been following, this is compared to about a year ago. >>
About five years ago I got curious about this, so I started tracking ebay sales for cards using spreadsheets. Not every card, but several key pre-war PSA-graded vintage cards and also some of the more noteable modern cards as well. I track the data and then plot trendlines to see what is happening with card sale prices.
The results I've seen are very similar to what you mentioned. The overall trend of both vintage and modern over the past five years has been down slightly, with a noticeable dropoff starting about a year ago. The good news is that dropoff appears to have hit bottom a few months ago, with prices of both vintage and modern coming back a bit lately.
I don't know what all this means; I just know that I love collecting cards as a hobby, not necessarily as an investment.
I hope that helps.
- John Wooden
What does this tell us about the card industry in general? IDK. But I have seen many more examples of nice HOF and semi star pre-1972 cards PSA 7 or better going for 1/3rd of SMR on ebay.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
SportsCards faired pretty impressively considering that financially you'd have to qualify this period as a period of increasing supply (more cards getting graded generally more cards at each grading level, people liquidating their collections to pay their bills, etc.) and decreasing demand (tighter money, higher unemployement, sportscards being a hobby puts it on the front line of personal spending cuts).
If the financial trends I witness in my job are true then I would suspect as SportsCardCollector pointed out that the cards have likely already bottomed out. The point he indentifies above as the bottoming out point is very much in line with what I am seeing in some of the financial markets that I work in.
<< <i>DOW = SPORTSCARD MARKET ?? >>
Dow is a reflection on the economy, but more importantly there a better measures of consumer spending.
In tough economies people generally cut spending on non-neccessities. Hobbies easily fill this category. Things that would adversely effect non-neccessity spending include ARMs on houses, unemployment, high inflation, significant price increase of neccessities (such as gasoline). I saw a thread on here where a bunch of forum users from this forum had lost their job. My guess is that most if not all of them scaled back their average sportscard spending.
Cards that look high-end for the grade- and particularly ones that are dead-centered- in my opinion are as strong as they ever were. At least I'm not finding any bargains!!
You want prime rib, you still have to pay prime rib prices. And if that hasn't changed by now, I doubt it will any time in the foreseeable future.
DISCLAIMER: I only collect the stuff in my sigline, and 95% of the cards I purchase are already PSA graded...... so that is the only portion of the card market that I can speak to. Modern cards, I have no idea.
-CDs Nuts, 1/20/14
*1956 Topps baseball- 97.4% complete, 7.24 GPA
*Clemente basic set: 85.0% complete, 7.89 GPA
<< <i>The value of my collection (per VCP average) is about 7% over the last few months........... >>
7% up or 7% down?
<< <i>I saw a 65 Masanori Murakama go for $28 dlvrd on ebay last week in a PSA 8. This card was beyond cherry, and may push 8.5 if resubbed. SMR is $85 I believe straight 8. I also know this card is popular and prized for set builders and Japanese collectors.
What does this tell us about the card industry in general? IDK. But I have seen many more examples of nice HOF and semi star pre-1972 cards PSA 7 or better going for 1/3rd of SMR on ebay. >>
Good thought...My best guess would be that the general demand for cards is down in return less bidding/competition leaving prices stale.
This is the same trend that i've seen for cards over $500 taking a 10-15% downturn consistently.
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Buying high dollar HOF cards even though they seemed bottomed out at this point are still a losing proposition.
Since i'm in it for the sentimental collecting value buying those dream HOF cards are ok by me, even though i'll come out on the short end.
For those looking to flip I think buying these set builder graded cards by the mass is the way to go, flipping low dollar cards in bulk makes sense in this market trend.
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Really? Wouldn't that depend on what you bought it (them) for?
Wouldn't it also depend on your customer base?
I think you are generalizing a lil too much.
Steve
Of course there is the exception of bargains, but for the normal joe you will fall into the VCP average %90 of the time.
Let's call market value = current VCP data based on those cards with 8 or more sales in 2009 (should be enough data to give a true average)
With that I still say it's a losing proposition in todays market...
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I don't know if it is a good time to buy, but to my surprise, graded sportscard have held their value better than other investments.
<< <i>how do the big dogs who list inventory at %200 market value make any substantial sales? >>
This comment is funny because the market was never high enough to justify some of the big dog prices. I see some cards with BINs 500% over the market value.
<< <i>Summer is generally a bad time to sell. Prices are lower because buyers are not on ebay.
I don't know if it is a good time to buy, but to my surprise, graded sportscard have held their value better than other investments. >>
maybe because topps can't print out more vintage cards like our government print out dollars?
I only deal with vintage, and have spent significant sums in the last year as deals have been easier to come by - buying much more than I sell. The sports card market will thrive once the economy returns, only tempered by increasing populations of submissions on relatively newer cards. America loves sports. People have sentimental attachments to their sports cards, and will buy more when they have their jobs back.
Considering how functionally useless sports cards are, it's remarkable how resilient their prices have been in the face of a very strong recession. What a fun time to buy if you can do it!
<< <i> Since i'm in it for the sentimental collecting value buying those dream HOF cards are ok by me, even though i'll come out on the short end. >>
This pretty much sums it up for me. I am long past the notion that I am ever going to make money buying/flipping cards. I know it can be done, but I also know I don't have the skill or the knowledge to do it.
The cards I buy nowadays, I buy for the joy of owning them and the fun of working towards the lifetime collecting goals I have set for myself. And since I buy primarily graded HOF'ers, they are also kind of an emergency savings account. If I am ever in a financial crisis, I know that I could sell them at any time and expect to get at least most of my "investment" back.
If I lose a few bucks in the end, at least I can keep the memory of having a pretty nice collection for a while.
-CDs Nuts, 1/20/14
*1956 Topps baseball- 97.4% complete, 7.24 GPA
*Clemente basic set: 85.0% complete, 7.89 GPA
Yes, there will be variations and cyclical swings within almost any market regardless of the surrounding economic environment, but to flatly state that the vintage market is in decline is a gross overstatement and is not entirely accurate.
Without performing and presenting a wide ranging market study, I will state that from my observations, the high end vintage market is strong and surprisingly stable with a wide range of cards still outperforming similar sales from 12 month prior.
Quality material will almost always carry and maintain it's inherent premium (a quick review of REA's recent auction during the peak of the economic downslide would substantiate this assertation) as those that tend to collect such have a significant level of disposable income.
The areas of the hobby that have been most affected are those that operate in an environment that operates on repeated sales and typically such transactions are dependant upon buyers and sellers with less discretionary or disposable income. Such markets suffer when buyers are limited on the funds that they have available for expenditure as well as sellers that do not have the capital to carry their inventory through such downturns. Also, such markets are often predicated on modern material which is also handcuffed by the performance (or non-performance) of active athletes and/or the speculative performance of unproven players. These markets are susceptible to wide price swings based upon player performance, available purchasing revenue and increased availability of product.
Just some food for thought.
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<< <i>Maybe someone can answer a question that's been haunting me for months now....how do the big dogs who list inventory at %200 market value make any substantial sales?
You know who i'm talking about...the 007 and zone etc stores...
Are these sellers just filthy rich and trying to buy enough inventory to monopolize the vintage graded market?
Obviously they can afford to sit on these cards for years without worrying about actually selling them at a fair market value.
I'm not hating on them, just curious what their business model is....
Someone please explain. >>
Another thing to add.
Maybe not monopolize the whole vintage market, but a certain card. Like the 51 bowman mantle, i don't see a lot for sale,
if these big guys have enough $$ to buy every single one in the market, then they can set whatever price they want.
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