1979 Proof 70 SBA Type II - $1,600 Registry hype or new reality?

MarkJude

I was reading the other thread about "registry" hype and wondered what the more experienced collectors thought about Morganluver's recent auctions.

To give you some background. A couple of weeks ago on the boards, Morganluver asked for information of the current market value for PR70 SBAs. He had four of them he was going to auction and needed to know what he should expect. He was told the 1979 type I, 1980 and 1981 type I should sell for around $300. He also had a rare 1979 type II which he was told should fetch in the neighborhood of $900.

So, four coins, estimated value of $1,800 before the fun begins.

Here's what happened:

The 1979 type I sold for $462, the 1980 sold for $350, the 1981 typeI sold for $406 and as mentioned above, the 1979 type II sold for an astounding, $1600!

Pre-auction estimate, $1,800--total realized, $2,818.

That is an increase of more than 56% above the estimate.

So the question for the experts out there is this, Registry hype or a new reality...

braddick

So, who says these coins were purchased for a Registry?

MarkJude

Braddick:

That really is the question that I'm asking.

If they were purchased for the Registry, then maybe the prices realized are not going to define the new market and may be just an anomoly caused by overzealous bidders.

If they were not purchased for a Registry set, then the answer might be that these prices could define the new marketplace.

As someone who collects SBAs, I'm curious to what some of the more experienced collectors think.

MarkJude

howie08

Markjude :
I've been collecting SBA's for a little over 3 years now , and the prices on the higher graded coins are really increasing logarithmically this past year , and seem to be holding ; not dropping. a few years ago , the PR70 DCAM Proofs ( Type 1 ) were selling for $ 100 , and recently are running $ 300- $ 400 and even higher for the type ones. I think the type 2's are going to hang over $ 1000 , and wouldn't be surprised to see the 81 type 2 over $2000 consistently this year. When I started collecting these , I thought I was the only one in the world who did. Maybe the state quarters brought in new collectors , who wanted a relatively easy set to complete , and then just started going for the higher grades. The same thing is happening with MS 67 coins in this series.

gmarguli

The price increase of PR70s over the years has had to do with the supply being cut off. PCGS has decided to keep the dealers happy by keeping the prices for these coins high by not grading more PR70s. The $100 price a few years ago was based on the assumption that there would be more PR70s graded and the population would continue to rise at an acceptable level. PCGS made sure this didn't happen. Now all the collectors that wanted a PR70 cannot just wait for more to be graded and the price to fall. More will not be graded, with the exception of a trivial one here and there. I'd expect the prices of most PR70s to have risen over the past 3 years.

CarlWohlforth

A further bump to PR 70 DCAM prices is that some have been taken off the market reducing supply. A couple of mine turned out to be misgraded and were downgraded.

MarkJude

Everyone:

Thanks for your input, I appreciate your insight and will continue to monitor the market as I make plans to upgrade my set.

MarkJude