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Long Beach doom and gloom? Surprisingly, no.
truthteller
Posts: 1,240 ✭✭
I attended the Long Beach show on Thursday from 11AM to 3:30PM, and, surprisingly, it was very active for me. The second of the LB shows is usually slow and underattended due to the holiday and summer breaks. However, I sold most of what I had at my asking prices, pretty commems and better date material. Dealers were actively searching for this type of product since they have usually been offered "stuff" at current levels, which the vast majority are simply rejected. One dealer with whom I spoke was quite pleased to see nice coins being offered to him, and was happy with the transaction.
The show, unfortunately, is in a death spiral. Many, many prime tables were empty and dealers were allowed to "spread out" onto tables that had no occupant. The west coast shows with 100+ tables appear to be faltering, while east coast large shows appear to be enjoying a rebirth. However, I attend many smaller local CA shows and find activity still quite brisk. Dealers are adjusting their prices as the new levels are beginning to find a current bottom. Will it be "the bottom"? Probably not, but prices are stabilizing for now.
On the other hand, I spoke with several currency dealers and they noted that graded common to better notes are in a 20-30% drop off from this years highs across the board. At the last Long Beach, I noticed better notes as a tough sell, so this scenario makes sense.
I predict the ANA Los Angeles to be very, very active at new lower levels. Many collectors have been waiting a few years for this opportunity, and it may have finally arrived.
Don't forget to bookmark this thread since it is one of my more upbeat reports.
TRUTH
The show, unfortunately, is in a death spiral. Many, many prime tables were empty and dealers were allowed to "spread out" onto tables that had no occupant. The west coast shows with 100+ tables appear to be faltering, while east coast large shows appear to be enjoying a rebirth. However, I attend many smaller local CA shows and find activity still quite brisk. Dealers are adjusting their prices as the new levels are beginning to find a current bottom. Will it be "the bottom"? Probably not, but prices are stabilizing for now.
On the other hand, I spoke with several currency dealers and they noted that graded common to better notes are in a 20-30% drop off from this years highs across the board. At the last Long Beach, I noticed better notes as a tough sell, so this scenario makes sense.
I predict the ANA Los Angeles to be very, very active at new lower levels. Many collectors have been waiting a few years for this opportunity, and it may have finally arrived.
Don't forget to bookmark this thread since it is one of my more upbeat reports.
TRUTH
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Without going into detail, were these prices in line with the market, or above market prices?
I mean, if you purchased these 2 years ago & sold them on Thursday for a nice profit, then I would say the market is still strong.
But if you purchased them just a while ago at 'market wholesale', them sold them Thursday for a nice profit, then maybe the market isn't that great.
Don't get me wrong, I not agreeing with any 'Doom & Gloom' theory.
Numismatics has survived a long time, through good times & bad, and it will continue to do so, IMO, but it's definitely on the downswing (gain, IMO).
I did notice vendors spreading their wares when the adjoining table was empty, though there were quite a few tables being shared by 2 (or more?) vendors.
Maybe lowering the cost per table would persuade more dealers to have their own table? Rhetorical question.
Also near Baltimore shows, new Philly show, Coinfest, and the rebirth of all east coast shows. A very easy flight to FUN and Atlanta show as well.
Not yet time to abandon California but the bloom is off the rose.
I mean, if you purchased these 2 years ago & sold them on Thursday for a nice profit, then I would say the market is still strong.
But if you purchased them just a while ago at 'market wholesale', them sold them Thursday for a nice profit, then maybe the market isn't that great.
Most of what I sold were upgrades. I noticed that most dealers wanted strictly PCGS graded products and the NGC coins were tough sells, but sold nonetheless. I have not been a strong buyer for two years since most dealers have been asking absurd premiums. However, many dealers have now "realized" that they can't sell if they are stubborn on prices. I surmise that either the dealer/seller/consigner is now resigned to the fact that premiums for nice coins are for CURRENT MARKET conditions and not what they paid for them. I also surmise that the dealers who sold coins for astronomical prices to collectors in 2004-2008 are no longer hesitant to say "no" to buybacks and are more likely to counsel the seller to price the coins at current market conditions or keep the coins. Just a fact of coins as investments. In addition, more dealers were asking to view inventory rather than say they are not buyers.
TRUTH
Even for those areas of the market that are in a "death spiral", and for which auction prices are (compared to recent price history) pathetic, I noticed that the buyers of this material were surprisingly fearless and cheerful about their new purchases. I guess all that means is that a bottom is far away, but I still found their attitudes surprising. I expected to see at least some significant fear, if not panic.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Logical and true, but that has not prevented the coin market from experiencing some severe crashes in the past.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
roadrunner
Hardly. A man falls out of a 60th story window, he starts worrying before he gets to the 59th floor.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>Andy, if you expected fear at LB than that would have meant the bottom was almost in?
Hardly. A man falls out of a 60th story window, he starts worrying before he gets to the 59th floor. >>
Clearly the best thing we can all do is start 423,000 more threads predicting how crappy the next show will be.
<< <i>
<< <i>Andy, if you expected fear at LB than that would have meant the bottom was almost in?
Hardly. A man falls out of a 60th story window, he starts worrying before he gets to the 59th floor. >>
Clearly the best thing we can all do is start 423,000 more threads predicting how crappy the next show will be. >>
I know you're being facetious....I think one or two a day would be plenty.