Commemorative silver market

jesbroken

I've been told by several people that the bottom is falling out of the Commemorative Silver Market in coins MS64 and below. Is this true or just rumor. I know that I lost considerablly in the last two I sold on Teletrade, but thought that might be a timing issue. Just curious, I believe I'll not sell anymore for a while and be on the lookout for some good buys. Thanks for your opinions.
Jim

edix2001

IIRC, in any of Anthony Swiatek's books or articles on commemoratives he advises only to purchase MS 65 and above if you wish to expect any significant increase in value.

golfer72

Good. Maybe I can start my Civil War Commem set. MS-64 is the best value anyway. I see many 64's that are better than 65's in slabs.

JCMhouston

The bottom is always falling out of the silver commem market, at least since the 70's when I first started collecting. The had a big run up in the 90's and I sold almost everything then. When they crasked after that they have just plodded along never generating much interest.

The set I'm building now is mostly 65 and 66, although I do have a couple of 64's that I bought just because they were really pretty.

TomB

It seems as though it has been nearly two generations since the market was not falling on lower end silver commems.

ACactions

I have been getting discounted Silver Commems for years- IN MS 64, 65, and 66- The market is not there-

John

mommam17

I ran an Ebay auction last week for an NGC MS 65 Lexington. 9 people looked at the auction. 9 people??? I use to get 40-70 for a similar action a couple of years ago.

Staircoins

Commems have a lot of potential. They always will.

Bear

For some reason, the Illinois 1918 in PCGS MS-66 is rarely found

for sale or in auctions. That fact has not given a boost to this

particular commem as of yet, but it may in the future.

Shortgapbob

The market for Commems has already fallen a long way over the past year or so. It seems to me that the prices are now low enough on the Greysheet that many Commems are actually sellable near the levels, instead of being discounted heavily from higher levels.

RedTiger

The bottom has fallen out for quite a few coins of all stripes. Classic commems are amongst the worst hit. One dealer I know is offering average looking coins for retail sale at back of greysheet prices and doesn't have any takers.

Just because prices are down, doesn't mean that next year they won't be down more. I bought some classic commems two years ago and another batch one year ago, in part because I thought the prices then were real cheap. Guess what? Auction prices realized have kept going down. Cheap has become cheaper. Low has become lower.

InYHWHWeTrust

I paid Pat Braddick MS money for an AG3 Commemorative last year, so no, it's not bottoming out in all the spheres...

AnkurJ

How about nice toners?

yellowkid

<< <i>How about nice toners? >>



I had to pay quite a premium for a nice toner at the Goldberg auction the other day. no weakness there!

roadrunner

Like Red Tiger I picked up a nice group of "cheap" MS65 to 67 commems during the 2004-2007 time frame only to see them do nothing. The bottom really fell out of these just a few months ago. I sold everything off between Teletrade and a major auction getting around 75% of bid on average. While a couple sold for more than I paid, almost all of them sold for tidy losses. MS64 Columbians for example are worth around $80-$100 of you can find a buyer as coins like this just sit in cases. Seems to me that the more common 64-66 commens have taken a 40-50% haircut, with the 65's in many cases taking the biggest whack.

I would say almost anything in commems right up to MS67 grades have been decimated. Some of the real keys like Spanish Trails or Missouri's in the right grades will always be in demand. But it's hard to see a bright future for classic commems right now. The killer toner market still has its followers but I doubt they are still paying the premiums they were in 2005-2007. Is a killer MS68 Oregon still worth $65K?

I pulled out an old 2005 PCGS pop report and found the # of classic commems graded. It was around 308,000 pieces and no doubt larger today. Assuming NGC has graded an equivalent number and figuring a 100% resubmission rate over the years, we're still looking at over 300,000 slabbed commems. And at an average value of say $150-$250 per commem, that's $45-75 MILL to buy the market. While it doesn't seem like that much money compared to Morgans or $20's, it's apparently either not sizeable enough to market via the boiler houses or too sizeable and diverse to draw new collectors in.

One couldn't help but notice one of the top forum graders selling his stash of MS65-66 commems over the past month or two. They will likely come back again, but a lot of different parts of the market will have to go first. If you do want to buy commems, buy only the top 5% of any grade. That coin has to look better than the other 19 you compared it to. In essence, the coin has to be "splendiferous." And any distractions whatsoever means keep on looking. Good, very good, or even excellent or not good enough. The buyers down the road will be even fussier than you are today. If there are 500 MS66 Lincolns for you to choose from, I think being in the top 10 to 25 pieces would get you a great coin. It's just gonna take a while.

roadrunner

richardshipp

There never seems to be much weakness on the commems I bid on

Eagleguy

Sometimes you can do well with a 64...



In the interest of full disclosure I was looking for a 67 and I was "talked into" this one (Thanks again Mike!). I have yet to find a higher grade Albany that is attractive as this.

JH

franklin200

We're basically at 1994 levels with the commems. Today was a new 12 month low on the index


Link

lcoopie

that's a nice Albany

here'e mine

jmj3esq

Since I am a collector and not looking to make a buck I see real opportunities in filling some difficult holes in my early commem set. I love low prices. They will rise agian.

yellowkid

<< <i>Since I am a collector and not looking to make a buck I see real opportunities in filling some difficult holes in my early commem set. I love low prices. They will rise agian. >>

Bear

I believe that you are correct. While the series has been dormant for

a very long time, I can remember a time in the late 70s when the series

was so hot , prices went up every week for a very long time. Be very selective

that the Commems you buy are mostly in MS-66 and 67, as these are fairly cheap

now. Look for truly outstanding examples you really like, but do not chase them to

far price wise. In time, these will again be hyped and in demand.

ColonialCoinUnion

I have no idea what the future holds (and that's good since I am not in the predicting business), but at current prices you can get some pretty cool looking commems for not a lot of money.

LeeG

<< <i>I have no idea what the future holds (and that's good since I am not in the predicting business), but at current prices you can get some pretty cool looking commems for not a lot of money. >>





Sold all my Commems last year. Still love the series and hope to add one example to my collection one day. In search of the right coin. Not sure what that is right now. The majority of commems spike in value at a certain grade level. Some super values can be found in the one grade under this spike. The monster toners are not cheap. Should have kept this one:

SmallEagle

There are some killer top pop commems coming up at the Pre-ANA Heritage sale. You can see them on their (auction-preview) website. Maybe that will get the interest flowing a little.