Am I the only one who is NOT experiencing price declines for good coins when the schlock floods the

Longacre

I was taking a look at the most recent Doug Winter blog and he comments on what is hot in the market and what is not hot. In the blog, he makes the following comment:

"I’d have to call the Charlotte and Dahlonega market pretty spotty right now. In their February Long Beach sale, Heritage had a massive amount of C+D gold coins and many prices were very cheap. But unless you really understand the market (and saw the coins in the sale) it is hard to make bold declarations. My take on the C+D market is that there are a lot of truly wretched coins on the market right now and the bottom feeders are either out of money or able to buy the schlock so cheaply that they are dragging prices down for the decent coins. ..."


Personally, I have not seen this "drag down" effect that Mr. Winter speaks of. It does not seem to matter if there are tons and tons of schlock on the market because when I see a coin that is PQ, it is priced at a PQ level (as it should be). I have not seen any wholesale reduction in prices that reflect the schlock factor, and the coins that I have been looking at (PQ) are priced accordingly.

Has anyone experienced a downturn in prices for good coins simply because there are lots of junky coin on the market in your area of interest?

JCMhouston

To give an example from the world coin market, just this week I paid a high price (although still small potatoes) for a Geo. III currency issue halfpenny in a major auction, obviously a few others were willing to bid it up above both the high estimate and previous sales levels. It's a scarce, newly and accurately graded, MS64 BR. In the same auction were a group of similar dates (1770-1775) that graded AU58 to MS64 but were unattractive or perhaps slightly overgraded and they went for under the low estimate. The same thing happened with Gothic florins and the early German States pieces, attractive examples went for up to 2-3x high estimate, while the unattractive/overgraded coins went at or below low estimate.

So in the world market at least it seems that quality is still selling well and I have not seen a drag down effect.

ziggy29

In a supply and demand based market, even if the economy has reduced demand, it has also caused the best coins to go "into hiding", thus also reducing supply. The net effect is that unlike the schlock, lower supply can offset lower demand and prevent the nicer stuff from falling too much.

fc

maybe the dealer is speaking about auctions and wholesale while
you buy mainly at the retail++ levels. thus you will not see any discounts
as the dealer is able to sell what he has in his inventory at previous market
exuberance levels. why change a working strategy? what is another 1000 bucks
to a whale?

yellowkid

I'm an antique dealer but I find that what I see in the antique market generally pertains to the coin market. Yes, some prices are down for great pieces, but nothing like the prices have dropped for "merch", which in most cases is just sitting. In fact many pq pieces have gone up.

JMW

I have not seen any decrease in the cost of quality material. There may be a slightly smaller group of us bidding against each other, but the competition is still there.

wikyva

I am with Longacre on this one ... I don't get to experience any of these price declines either. Perhaps that is because I am among the numisimatic hoi polloi as opposed to being a whale. But schlock happens and I still pay high prices!

Unknown

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pennyannie

I do not see any REAL price reductions on the retail side of coins or at coin shows. I have picked up a few coins at a favorable price on some true on-line un reserved auctions. No that bullion prems are gone maybe if everything stays the same in the economy for another 6 months we will finnally see a few price drops.

I saw where phil simms has a 1995 w ASE in original capsule priced at 2995 in the most recent Nusmatic news weekly rag. I believe that is a decent price drop from a few years back but i do not follow the series so i may be wrong.

291fifth

I haven't noticed any significant price cuts for better material. In fact, I haven't noticed many price cuts for second and third rate material either.

I still think the lack of viable investment alternatives is behind this. In spite of the widespread financial misconduct that brought on this economic downturn, no significant reforms have been enacted. There is no confidence in traditional investment vehicles and FDIC insured CD's are paying virtually nothing.

KentuckyJ

I'm surprised to see you would even use the term "schlock." Doesn't your doing so risk getting the Longacre key pad dirty?

RichieURich

I've been reducing prices on a lot of coins, maybe up to half of my inventory. Some price reductions made by other dealers might be "hidden"; i.e. a dealer that normally discounts 5% off list might now discount 15% off list.

roadrunner

As Rich stated, there are a number of dealers doing 15% off sales, possibly more if you squeeze them. Dead inventory is dead inventory. It needs to get moved.

My take on the C+D market is that there are a lot of truly wretched coins on the market right now and the bottom feeders are either out of money or able to buy the schlock so cheaply that they are dragging prices down for the decent coins. ..."

All I can say is until you try to sell your own coins or put them up in a major auction, take the bourse prices quoted to you with a grain of salt. I would agree with what Winter said and that's from actual experiences. As always the real market is based on real cash offers. You don't figure out what real market buy prices are by scanning a major retailer's sell prices on their web site. There have been a ton of wretched coins on the market for 6 years now, only it's much more obvious now with the lower number of transactions. And let's face it, if schlock is not selling and constantly falling in price, then good coins will get affected. While it's not fair, it is reality. The price of good homes are falling as well in this market, but not drastically so far. In fact they may actually end up falling more than the prices of average or low end homes by the time it's all over.

In my 35 years of watching coin market cycles I've never once seen good or great coins not dragged down in price with everything else during a correction. I don't think it's different this time. 1804 silver dollars or choice C&D gold is not exempted. However I might concede that there are some historically undervalued areas of the market that are never promoted where prices just never fall back.

roadrunner

DRUNNER

I appreciate Roadrunner's comments. I've gleaned quite a bit of info just sitting back pondering his advice and observations. I'll continue to do just that . . . he has a good perspective.

Drunner