OPINIONS - 1971s PCGS MS67 Silver Business Strike Ikes

fantasiize

Well, we may be in a cirnerstone with prices for the 1971s PCGS MS67 Silver Ikes.

Here is what I have for the last 5 1971s on ebay over the past 30 days (or so):
$440
$439
$435
$425
$380

Here is more information:
- 3 weeks ago, we broke over 100 graded in MS67 (psychological level perhaps),
- none graded in MS68 so to break that bubble one has to have a substantial MS68 and if that happens, that would affect MS67 prices anyway,
- the largest mintage of all business strike Ikes (6.8 million which is larger than the other 3 years - 72, 73, and 74 combined) though there were significant minting problems with this date/MM

My opinion, given the 2 information items above, prices will start to be sustained at sub-$400 levels and should start seeing some sub-$300 prices in late spring early summer 2002 (unless substantial demand kicks in). Strong opinion perhaps but I have had a hunch about this date/MM for a while now. At some other point, I'll provide another hunch about the 1976s (depending how this opinion/prediction unfolds/is accepted).

Any opinions from the rest of the board on this one ???

Endocrinologist

Chris,

As you know, the 1971 S is the hardest silver (of course). I looked through over 100 blue packs recently and submitted the best one, which came back MS 66. Most of them are poorly struck or poorly packaged. Even Jim Barlow doesn't have one listed on his monthly flyer.

I think there will be high demand for the 1971 S in MS 67, but I think you are right that breaking the barrier of 100 might bring down the price a little.

I think it is going to depend on the numbers of new IKE collectors (which I think will be strong for 2002). If that is the case, the bottom could no worse than around $325-350.

I'm worried about the 1972-S Silver MS67. That coin has been showing some recent weakness. It might drop pretty quickly. (in the low $20s).

Very interesting to see what happens.

Vin

wondercoin

You mention there are more than 100 MS67 coins now in existence and that figure grows each month. IMHO, it is unlikely that today there are even 100 serious collectors of Ikes that demand MS67 quality as opposed to settling for an MS66 at a tiny fraction of the price. If I were to guess, I'd think there were possibly less than 50 serious collectors out there that "had to have" finest known to be happy.

Let's face it, Ike collecting is very "thinly traded", resulting in potentially huge price rises (as we have seen in the past 12 months on the low pop issues) and also the potential for 25-50% price corrections, as we are now seeing in the case of the 71(s) Ike in top grade. This is really no different than what has occured in the MS state quarter market with respect to certain coins that have seen pops swell in the 40-70 range and prices fall as well while the low pop coins continue to stay in demand.

Since type collectors can settle on an MS67 1972(s) Ike to fill the hole for a fraction of the price of the 1971(s), IMHO this date may not see a recovery in price for some time to come as type collectors can also avoid this date in top grade.

On the other hand, I am not convinced that this date will "crash" into the $200s, because there are new Ike collectors entering the market each month to counteract the rising pop. IMHO, I suspect we are not too far off from the "lows", especially because if the price were to drop another 25% from here. I would personally be buying up a large quantity to hold on to and I suspect I would not be the only one doing it as well. Good thread. Wondercoin.

braddick

Great assessment. I know if the price were to drop below $300.00 I'd be in and I'm not an Ike collector per se. This will always be a tough coin. Imagine what a real MS68 would demand?

-I bet I can guess your opinion on the MS68 1976-S Ike! I'll wait to read your words though.

khayse

Fantasiize,

Let me put my reaction this way to your prediction:
I'll take 3 1971S MS67 at $300.

I think prices have run up (and somewhat back down)
recently because a new group of serious Ike collectors started
about the same time. They bid against each other and ran
up the prices temporarily. They got the coins they were looking
for and stopped bidding against each other so the prices fell
back to whatever the general market was willing to pay.
(I do think the breaking 100 psychological impact and all the
recent additions to the population have had a greater effect on
the 71-S). Compare this to the lack of recent growth in making
1976-S coins.

You'll notice James Sego bought the last one. He already had
(at least) two judging by the two sets he has listed in the registry.
Why is he buying more? Because he has seen the price change
possible in such a thinly traded item. All he has to do is wait for
the next demand spike and sell when the price goes up. He can
also trade this semi-scarce issue for something else he needs.

And James isn't the only one willing to "hold up the price"/
speculate. Wondercoin says he is willing to buy low. And when
is the last MS66 Ike auction where CJK didn't have a bid.

This all depends on whether the population keeps rising.
I assume there will be less submissions as the price falls.

-Keith H

khayse

Who says we need an Ike club?

We just hold our meetings right here whenever someone
asks a question.



-Keith H

wondercoin

"Wondercoin says he is willing to buy low"

Who said I'm buying "low". I'll buy not (3) but (10) pieces (1971(s) Silver Ike in PCGS-MS67) at $300/coin delivered to me anytime in 3/02. Is $300 "low"? I'm not buying "low", I'm buying "right". Wondercoin.

Endocrinologist

Well, its good to know that there are enough deep pockets from keeping the IKE market from crashing

Endo

jcping

As long as there is a bad apple (an over-graded 1971S MS67 Ike dollar), the bottom will fall. Several months ago, I bought one from a major dealer, and the coin is a dog. There are two major "marks" on the coin, especially the hit on the back of the head. I returned it.

Late last year, I saw the coin showed up in NGC registry, and then I saw the same coin showed up in ebay twice. I believe this one is at least one (or two) of the last five in the price list. People might dump it at any price .....

What is the reasonable price for a correctly graded 71S at 7? My take is between $350 to $450 in today's market. If you can find a high-end 7 (a shot to 8), expect to pay much more. I won't surprise to see it goes over $1000 since most 71S has tons of tiny marks and white spots. It is very difficult to find a 71S with no ticks, no hairlines on cheek, no white spots and good luster.

Happy Hunting.

wondercoin

jcping: You are absolutely right! The grading service is usually only as good as their worst coin!

I also got in a terrible 1971(s) Ike in PCGS-MS67 recently which I returned (the deal on that one was sight seen as the seller was asking a price higher than my sight unseen price). If I owned the coin, I would have likely presented it to PCGS for evaluation. But, if a couple low end pieces constantly circulate, I do believe they have a devasting effect on pricing. Of course, this presents a great opportunity to the Ike expert - paying less than you would otherwise have to in order to buy up all the good PQ coins while avoiding the low end coins.

I would personally gladly pay $1500 for a super PQ 1971(s) Ike Dollar in PCGS-MS67. Anyone have one for sale? Wondercoin.

fantasiize

I think everyone has made some excellent points and it is interesting that some folks are looking to buy more to keep the coin away from the "floor" but perhaps not up to the "ceiling" so maybe we will see prices stabilize in the middle to upper $300's let's see where we are af few months from now.

BTW, my prediction was consistent/sustained prices <$400 between March and early June 2002 with SOME prices <$300 in late June and early July 2002. The sustained <$300 prices beyond late spring early summer 2002 will depend on demand, whiich again, may appear a little artificial, given 2 or 3 players looking to buy at lower levels.

P.S. I think someone made a good point about 2 or 3 key buyers that entered and bought some up. However, I also noticed 2 buyers in late 2001 that just sold off everything they bought over the past 2 months (at probably a little loss, not sure) as well as a registry set owner that liquidated his set to pursue other interests.

segoja

The 1971-S is a tough one in MS67 as we all know. I'll support them at a level greater than wonder coin.

Sell me some on a s/s basis. No junk need apply. There is some junk out there, and the fresh lsuterous minimally bagmarked ones are still worth the money.

If we don't all support the series, we all lose.

Typetone

I believe that $400 to $450 is about right for a reasonable piece. There may not be 100 pieces in existence, as I believe there is some crack out activity going on to get that first 68. I'm skeptical that we will get more than one or two 68s (if any) because of the poor quality of the year. I would be surprised if we get a sustained price below $300, unless the pop explodes. I think many of the C/N common 66s got a little to pricey. So did the 71S in 67 over $600. Common 66s should settle back to about $150. The 71S to the level above. I think the 76S in 68 is probably more like a $700 coin than a $1,000 one at this point.

PQ pieces will fetch much more. I recently paid $875 I think for a wonderfully toned piece (but not a Peac*ock). There are many blast white S mint pieces but only a handful of beautifully toned ones. Realistically, it will be hard if not impossible for me to upgrade my set. There are currently only 19 pieces available for upgrades to my set. Most are tucked away in collection's like Dennis's. Even if one becomes available, my guess is the price would be prohibitive. So I am focusing on finding beautifully toned IKEs to add to my set.

segoja

Greg,

That's a pretty 71-S! I owned it once!

You will not see an MS68 71-S, unless PCGS lowers it's standards. I've been through thousands, as I'm sure most of you have. I've not even seen one that I would crack out for a shot at 68. I owned one of the first 2 that made 67, years ago. Sold that piece to the same guy that I sold my MS68 in the old (small) holder, that would make 69 for sure today. That 71-S would not make 68, and it's by far the nicest one that I've owned or seen. Not that I have the market cornered, but I've seen many.

Endocrinologist

There are some of us "IKE" enthusiasts that don't have a 1971-S MS67 yet, so there will be support at any dips for the next few months. Probably will break down and buy one slabbed if I can't make my own. Its amazing, one year (1971) the dollars look ugly and the next year (1972) the dollars are well done.

Endo

fantasiize

Endo,

Agree with your 71s & 72s comparison.

You struggle to get MS66 71s's and the worst 72s that I have is probably a MS65 and that is conservatively graded with semi PL fields.

Fantasiize

fantasiize

Ok, the last 71s in MS67 went for $420.

Let 's see where the next 71s in MS67 will end up ...

fantasiize

The most current one went for $370.

Let us recap, here is what I have for the last 7 - 1971s on ebay over the past 45 days (or so):
$440
$439
$435
$425
$380
$420
$370

More to follow, stay tuned, trend does look to be on a down slope (at least the moving average, 440, 436, 432, 424, 414) ...

jcping

> Let us recap, here is what I have for the last 7 - 1971s
> on ebay over the past 45 days (or so):
> $440
> $439
> $435
> $425
> $380
> $420
> $370

The one closed tonight (04/14) on eBay, 1344896123, is realized at $521.
From the photo, this might not meet 71-S average quality. Is there
any up-trend for the date?

fantasiize

JCPING,

You "beat me to the punch" ... I was just going to add to this post but saw that you added it.

Actually, I do not see an up side (though the moving average is now up to about $430). This one plus the 76s in MS68 where picked up by the same person, so I would assume we will see them on the registry coin section later this week. Throw out one of the two folks that really wanted this one and you are in the high $300's.

Let's see where the next one takes us ...

Chris