Uhh... what the heck happened with prices on Canadian material?

coinpictures

I haven't been paying much attention to Canadian material over the past few years. Tonight I sat down to continue working on a box of Canadian material to put on eBay that I had started processing about 3 years ago (VG-XF material, nothing earth shattering). I logged into Numismaster to check updated prices (the online search interface still sucks mule testicles, but that's fodder for a different discussion).

Some things haven't moved, but other pieces have doubled in price. That's a LOT of movement over a 3-year timespan.

Here's an example: 1875-H 10 Cents in F. When I last checked, it was a $300 coin. It's now at $800.

What gives?

7Jaguars

Not the expert here, but I have seen Canadian circs go for a lot less than catalog on sales "south of the border". Even the Belzberg/Norweb caliber 20th C. coins seem to have gone down a bit of late, but that is strictly in my limited experience.

coinpictures

<< <i>Not the expert here, but I have seen Canadian circs go for a lot less than catalog on sales "south of the border". Even the Belzberg/Norweb caliber 20th C. coins seem to have gone down a bit of late, but that is strictly in my limited experience. >>



I would expect that of Charlton or Canadian Trends, as those prices have always seemed "optimistic" here in the States, but if Krause prices are out of line, one would expect them to, if not correct, at least hold flat... but taking huge jumps? Or have the editors of Krause become even more out of touch over the last few years?

7Jaguars

Uhh, will take the fifth amendment on that one. I think they may be lagging a bit, again IMHO. Also, published "prices" are going to be 12-18 mos. out of date even when they are correct. Circulated coins are a bit problematic, even when rare in many other series (ie Gr. Britain) as there seems to be much more focus on preservation...

DoubleEagle59

Here in Canada, most collectors go by prices in 'The Canadian News' and these prices are called in the trade 'Canadian Trends'.

Just recently there has been a change in the person who oversees the prices that are published.

If you're talking about very recent changes (within the last two months) then most changes have actually been to the downside.

One example of this is the 1935 $1 in ms65. Used to be $700, now it's $375.

Upside example...1956 $1 in ms65, used to be $2400, now it's $4000.

I want to stress that in Canada, Krause is hardly ever used, Charleton's in a minor way.

At all the coin shows I have attended in the past 10 years, ALL dealers refer to the Canadian trends. They almost all sell at a very consistent 80% of trends to the public.

ormandh

I would think that it depends on the certain series that you are trying to sell. But, overall, I think the world coin market has fallen in price except for very high grade material. And even then it is based on supply and demand. This week one series will sell for a mint, but don't expect to sell the same coin for that price next week.

bosox

Over the past two or three years, more and more of the dealers have started using the Canadian Coin Dealer Newsletter instead of Trends, particularly for key coins and mint state coins. In a few months that distiction may be moot, since the editor of CCDN is Mike Findlay, who is now the new editor of Trends.

DoubleEagle59

<< <i>Over the past two or three years, more and more of the dealers have started using the Canadian Coin Dealer Newsletter instead of Trends, particularly for key coins and mint state coins. In a few months that distiction may be moot, since the editor of CCDN is Mike Findlay, who is now the new editor of Trends. >>

coinkat

I am alittle surprised that the 1956 dollar in 65 is 4000. It is tough, but there are others that are tough as well- I do not believe PCGS has graded a 1957 SWL in 65

ajaan

To give one example of the difference between the Canadian 'grey sheet' and Trends:

1926 Far 6 Trends VF $400 CCDN Bid: 250 ask: 280

Note: I'm working with a June 2008 CCDN which is probably 2 issues old.

DoubleEagle59

I know PCGS has gotten a lot stricter with their grading of Canadian coins,

but one large gap still remains,

PCGS's ms65 Elizabeth dollars are still not close in standards to an ICCS Elizabeth ms65 dollar.

bosox

Mike publishes two types of CCDN guides. The ones with the bid and ask price are wholesale deal prices (dealer to dealer). Once or twice each year he publishes a retail price guide which provides an apples to apples comparison with Trends.

ormandh

Nice collection of large cents that you have there Rob!

bosox

Thanks, Dan. A labor of love.

1960NYGiants

My experiences lately in both buying and selling is that prices have peaked and dropped for the common and otherwise readily available dates of all denominations. Problem free original surface semi-scarce dates are holding steady. The keys and moster eye appeal dates have gone up. Full 100% red large cents have gone up while small cents have declined.

One big recent change in Trends was for the 1958 Totem Pole or "Death" dollar: MS65 dropped from $1400 to $650. I'm not that surprised as I made 3 65's and 1 66 in the past year or so.

To DE59's point: for the longest time getting a QE II $ in 65 at ICCS was like finding hen's teeth and most PCGS 65s looked better than the ICCS 64s. At the last CNA in Ottawa, ICCS 65s seemed readily available (my conception but I wasn't shopping for them).

coinkat

The 1958 Canadian Dollar seems to be the most available in high grade- not surprised by a decline there

DoubleEagle59

It's great to hear many US collectors venturing into the Canadian market.

We need the collectors!

But I do want to caution the collectors of high end, highly priced Canadian coins.

Don't expect to get the high prices for ms65 (or higher) low Pop Report Canadian coins that are PCGS graded.

If you have such a coin, it would definitely get the maximum price in an ICCS holder.

I know the ICCS holder has its problems, but one thing ICCS has over PCGS and others (in the Canadian market) is the highest degree of respect and value.

coinpictures

<< <i>If you have such a coin, it would definitely get the maximum price in an ICCS holder.

I know the ICCS holder has its problems, but one thing ICCS has over PCGS and others (in the Canadian market) is the highest degree of respect and value. >>



Is ICCS as conservative and consistent as they used to be though? I've been reading grumblings to the contrary.

theboz11

but one thing ICCS has over PCGS and others (in the Canadian market) is the highest degree of respect and value.

That's why you buy the coin and not the holder.

DoubleEagle59

<< <i>

<< <i>If you have such a coin, it would definitely get the maximum price in an ICCS holder.

I know the ICCS holder has its problems, but one thing ICCS has over PCGS and others (in the Canadian market) is the highest degree of respect and value. >>



Is ICCS as conservative and consistent as they used to be though? I've been reading grumblings to the contrary. >>



Yes, you're right.

ICCS has become a 'little' more lenient in their grading and PCGS has become tighter.

But definitely in certain Canadian coin series, there is still a noticeable difference.

EX;

as previously stated, there is no way I would buy an ms65 QEII dollar in ms65 from PCGS. 95% of them would only make an ms64 at ICCS. HUGE price difference ($70 in ms64; $800 in ms65)

On the other hand, I know that ICCS is sloppy with their grading of 'RED' copper. It should be tighter and PCGS does a better job of this.

ICCS has always (and still is) stricter in their 'technical' grading of coins (which I personally prefer) and PCGS will quite often grade a coin highly, because of its 'eye appeal' while overlooking some 'hit marks' on the coin.

This point I just stated is I believe, the basis for the whole issue of 'ICCS is better than PCGS' because 5 to 15 years ago, it was even moreso exaggerated. ie. ICCS was very strict and PCGS was very loose with Canadian material.

Quite honestly, over the years, I have seen some toned Canadian material that PCGS graded ms65 and ms66, that I know ICCS would grade between au58 and ms62.

Like everyone says 'buy the coin. not the holder', but I just wanted to say that in a few very select series, you've got to be very careful when buying Canadian PCGS graded coins.

docday2003

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>If you have such a coin, it would definitely get the maximum price in an ICCS holder.

I know the ICCS holder has its problems, but one thing ICCS has over PCGS and others (in the Canadian market) is the highest degree of respect and value. >>



Is ICCS as conservative and consistent as they used to be though? I've been reading grumblings to the contrary. >>



Yes, you're right.

ICCS has become a 'little' more lenient in their grading and PCGS has become tighter.

But definitely in certain Canadian coin series, there is still a noticeable difference.

EX;

as previously stated, there is no way I would buy an ms65 QEII dollar in ms65 from PCGS. 95% of them would only make an ms64 at ICCS. HUGE price difference ($70 in ms64; $800 in ms65)

On the other hand, I know that ICCS is sloppy with their grading of 'RED' copper. It should be tighter and PCGS does a better job of this.

ICCS has always (and still is) stricter in their 'technical' grading of coins (which I personally prefer) and PCGS will quite often grade a coin highly, because of its 'eye appeal' while overlooking some 'hit marks' on the coin.

This point I just stated is I believe, the basis for the whole issue of 'ICCS is better than PCGS' because 5 to 15 years ago, it was even moreso exaggerated. ie. ICCS was very strict and PCGS was very loose with Canadian material.

Quite honestly, over the years, I have seen some toned Canadian material that PCGS graded ms65 and ms66, that I know ICCS would grade between au58 and ms62.

Like everyone says 'buy the coin. not the holder', but I just wanted to say that in a few very select series, you've got to be very careful when buying Canadian PCGS graded coins. >>



I have to disagree with alot of what you have posted. ICCS is not the only real player for Canadian coins...and ICCS is not more conservative than PCGS. For example, I purchased approx 6 or 7 ICCS ms 65 1951 dollars at a recent Torex. All were submitted to PCGS. Most were then regraded ms 64. I purchased a 1871 5¢ in ICCS ms 65 which was submitted to PCGS and returned in a ms63 holder. If you look at the Belzberg coins, the catalog reports the ICCS and PCGS grades. I did an analysis of the number where the grades were identical, higher or lower, and concluded that the overall edge went to PCGS for strictness. And that was several years ago. Since then, PCGS has gotten much tighter, and ICCS has become much looser. Compounding the problem is the fact that ICCS started grading PL coins as MS. Additionally I have several top graded ICCS coins that were bodybagged at PCGS for altered surfaces. So, of course you should judge the coin on it's merits, but don't buy the hype that ICCS is the best.
PS my experience with Canadian coins is largely confined to high mintstate examples, so I have no opinion on whether ICCS or PCGS is more or less conservative on the heavily circulated coins.

WWW

MS65 and below 1935 dollars are bottoming out for sure. QE2 quarters are hot in MS65 and above.
PCGS has issues lately with determining PL and MS designations. I have no idea why this
is a problem all of a sudden for PCGS, but they are definitely getting this bass ackwards.
At least ICCS has been consistent in getting this wrong.

ajaan

I have noticed that ICCS is more conservative on circulated coins. ICCS is conservative on coins in lower MS grades, MS 60 to MS63. ICCS is more forgiving on problem coins which will get BBed at PCGS.

DoubleEagle59

I will admit that PCGS will bodybag more coins than ICCS.

I don't know if this is beneficial or not.

I still maintain, based on two facts: 1. what coins sell for at auction and 2. what hardcore Canadian collectors prefer, is that for high grade scarce material, ICCS is definitely preferred over PCGS.

ajaan

<< <i>I still maintain, based on two facts: 1. what coins sell for at auction and 2. what hardcore Canadian collectors prefer, is that for high grade scarce material, ICCS is definitely preferred over PCGS. >>


There is no doubt in that IMO. Kool-Aid drinkers in Canada also.

docday2003

<< <i>I will admit that PCGS will bodybag more coins than ICCS.

I don't know if this is beneficial or not.

I still maintain, based on two facts: 1. what coins sell for at auction and 2. what hardcore Canadian collectors prefer, is that for high grade scarce material, ICCS is definitely preferred over PCGS. >>




I'm not sure what qualifies someone as a "hardcore collector", but I prefer PCGS...here's a few of my sets:
Canadian Type Set

Canadian Nickel Set

World Set

WWW

Doc's Canadian type set is absolutely amazing. And yes, you are XXX hardcore collector.