My 2009 predictions for the Coin Market.....Dont nobody else got no opinions?..........

Bear

The L.B. Show will be stronger then expected
but not over the top.


Heritage auction will be so/so, with a lot of buy backs


Rest of 2009 will be a sideways market with a continuing
downward bias. Demand will slowly build and begin
to put pressure on prices by the end of the year.

2010.....Market will begin a slow steady rise , accelerating
by the end of the year as inflation accelerates.


The see....The Bear is not always negative like you humans
say I am. One could add that I am slowly becoming a bullish
bear.

GAT

<< <i>The L.B. Show will be stronger then expected
but not over the top.


Heritage auction will be so/so, with a lot of buy backs


Rest of 2009 will be a sideways market with a continuing
downward bias. Demand will slowly build and begin
to put pressure on prices by the end of the year.

2010.....Market will begin a slow steady rise , accelerating
by the end of the year as inflation accelerates.


The see....The Bear is not always negative like you humans
say I am. One could add that I am slowly becoming a bullish
bear. >>


I think you have been eating too many jelly doughnuts. I see the coin market declining with the precious metal prices increasing.

291fifth

I see the numismatic coin market continuing to drift lower. I'll be surprised if the Long Beach bourse is "stronger than expected." Of course, expectations may be so low that I could be wrong.

Anything that looks like a widget in the auction will be weak. I agree that many buy backs are likely. Even the better material may soften a bit. I just don't see any strength in the economy.

In my own "secret collection," the past month has been very productive. I have won virtually every lot I have bid on and have spent very little. There just isn't much competition. This is a big change from a year ago when many lots were hotly contested all the way up to $25.

ColonialCoinUnion

Collect nice coins, keep them for a while and stop worrying about what the market will do in the next 7 months.

Bear

DATS WAT I SAYD!

ColonialCoinUnion

<< <i>DATS WAT I SAYD! >>



Well then I agree with you!

Bear

Well then , OK!

roadrunner

Long Beach could be a slightly better show than the March/April ones if gold continues to move up next week. Frankly, I think it will be already dropping down some for a stronger emergence in the first 2 weeks in June. But the summer should be a typical lull with stocks falling back as well as metals as liquidity drys up again. Another deleveraging event in July-September could really upset the apple cart. In any case precious metals should be back on course by August-October with a new boom in play for winter/spring. It's possible that could help lift the coin market doldrums. And I think it will to some extent. Just don't expect common stuff in holders and the typical widgets to do anything different than they have been doing. Recessions (esp those with housing prices tanking) tend to kill off the majority of speculations withing the coin market. Bread and butter, "problem-free" collector coins will fare the best. The top 5-10% of all coins can't by themselves continue to make a great coin market considering 90% of what dealers have in their cases and collectors have in their collections is just "stuff." I don't think you'll see widgets come back until housing starts to recover, and that could be 3-5 yrs away. More mainstream speculative assets like gold and silver that are not in abundant supply and can't be printed overnight will start off first. The very best of the great coins won't be far behind. First the top 5%, then the top 10%, then the top 20%, etc. The bottom 65% will take a few years to come around.

In short, I think most rare coins not related to bullion will be worth less by the end of 2009, even the "bestest" of coins. It will be the rare exception where a coin that is not thinly traded (like choice early coppers) is worth more in December than it was 4 months ago. I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that almost every US generic and/or rarer gold coin (<$20K) will be worth more by the end of December. The newbies entering our market for the first time will understand $20 Saints/Libs as well as $10 Libs and Indians, as well as AGE's, Buffalo's, ASE's, UHR's, etc.. They will have a tougher time figuring out a $750 proof 66 Lib nickel though.

roadrunner

yellowkid

<< <i>Collect nice coins, keep them for a while and stop worrying about what the market will do in the next 7 months. >>




Amen.

DieClash

I'll admit I don't follow the coin market like I do the stock market, but I don't see demand increasing any time soon. Too many folks newly unemployed. Rare coins may be investment-grade for folks with money to burn. But given some recent sales of some high-profile rare coins and how much the sellers' lost at auction is a leading indicator [for me anyway] as to the market trends over the next year.

The market decline at the top will continue to filter down to the rest of the market until it bottoms out. Probably sometime in 2010, spring maybe.

Until then some series will expand while others decline in the so-called "sideways" market, but the overall trend will be decline, IMO.

MrOrganic

<< <i>

<< <i>The L.B. Show will be stronger then expected
but not over the top.


Heritage auction will be so/so, with a lot of buy backs


Rest of 2009 will be a sideways market with a continuing
downward bias. Demand will slowly build and begin
to put pressure on prices by the end of the year.

2010.....Market will begin a slow steady rise , accelerating
by the end of the year as inflation accelerates.


The see....The Bear is not always negative like you humans
say I am. One could add that I am slowly becoming a bullish
bear. >>


I think you have been eating too many jelly doughnuts. I see the coin market declining with the precious metal prices increasing. >>



My rookie thoughts also.

original 65' shelby cobra did not meet reserve in auction
picasso's going unsold at auctions.
signs of people not having the cash for luxury items. What cash they do have they do not want to miss out on the stock market/Casino

Numismatics will enter a bear market.

Bullion Pm's ...bull market

jdillane

Um, without drawing the analogy, you know we all have one!

Methinks the summer will be slow as it usually is, save for a couple recent summers when the bullish pace didn't seem to let up at all. Things will pick up in the fall. I think we'll probably see more declines by series than gains and generally with greater margins. Some series can give back alot and most will be just fine.

For those who bought heavily at the top, you have my condolences. I did that with bust dollars in 2004 and 2005. When I sold em to fund CBH's, some folks got some mighty nice coins at bargain prices.

rec78

The coins that i need will go up in value. The ones that i already have will decline. Just like any other year.

I think the lincoln cent hysteria will abate by the end of the year. State quarters will decline as interest wanes with the exception of the error coins. The moderns market will be flooded as the newer collectors need cash in a down economy. Classic coins may decline a little bit but moderns will come crashing down. You can't flood the classic market as there are not enough classic coins to do it. I collect both moderns and classics. JMO. Bob

guitarwes

<< <i>The coins that i need will go up in value. The ones that i already have will decline. Just like any other year. >>




Agree for the most part. The ones I want will go up. The widgets I have will (and have) plateaued if not slightly decreased. My focus a shifted swiftly to better coins.