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Randy Johnson - The last 300-game winner?

Dave99BDave99B Posts: 8,600 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
Ever?

Dave
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  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,748 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Too early to tell...there was also a large gap between Ryan (1990) and Clemens (2003), though it will certainly be more difficult than in generations past because of the 5-man rotation and the role of the bullpen and pitch counts. Sabathia has a shot if he stays healthy and productive.


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  • PSACollectorPSACollector Posts: 43
    Why do people say that we may not see another 300 Game Winner?

    Is 200 the new 300 for pitchers?

    Will we ever see another 300 game winner?

    grote15 said ...

    << <i>Big Unit is stuck at 284, I thought he'd make it, but not so sure now. Mussina may have an outside shot if he pitches long enough, otherwise I don't think you'll see another 300-game winner, much like you won't see another 30-game winner in a regular season (and lately 20 games isd getting rare, too). >>


    Looks like Unit will make it, but Mussina not because he retired.


    VitoCo1972 said ...

    << <i>It would take some kind of phenom-type talent to win 300 games while only starting 32-35 times/year. >>

    Stephen Strasburg anyone?
  • BarndogBarndog Posts: 20,504 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Why do people say that we may not see another 300 Game Winner?

    Is 200 the new 300 for pitchers?

    Will we ever see another 300 game winner?

    grote15 said ...

    << <i>Big Unit is stuck at 284, I thought he'd make it, but not so sure now. Mussina may have an outside shot if he pitches long enough, otherwise I don't think you'll see another 300-game winner, much like you won't see another 30-game winner in a regular season (and lately 20 games isd getting rare, too). >>


    Looks like Unit will make it, but Mussina not because he retired.


    VitoCo1972 said ...

    << <i>It would take some kind of phenom-type talent to win 300 games while only starting 32-35 times/year. >>

    Stephen Strasburg anyone? >>



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  • lsutigers1973lsutigers1973 Posts: 11,093 ✭


    << <i>Stephen Strasburg anyone? >>



    He has the same amount of wins in MLB as I do. Assuming he makes it to the majors, he is a high risk candidate for numerous injuries.

    Brien Taylor anyone?
  • DaBeefDaBeef Posts: 2,478
    Im shocked he is still pitching with effect, all his back surgeries in his early years didnt make it look like he would pitch till 40, MUCH less 46.. By the way, I went to a M's game that he tossed a no-no in, that was awesome...
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  • digicatdigicat Posts: 8,551 ✭✭


    << <i>Im shocked he is still pitching with effect >>



    Only when he's at home. He's pitching in a good pitcher's park.

    This year, Johnson's got 3 wins and a 3.00 era in 4 starts at home. On the road, he's got no wins, 2 losses, and a 11.37 era in 3 starts.

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  • Dave99BDave99B Posts: 8,600 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If he wins his next start, he will be on pace to try for #300 in Seattle, the weekend of 5/23.

    That would be cool!

    Dave
    Always looking for original, better date VF20-VF35 Barber quarters and halves, and a quality beer.
  • markj111markj111 Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Im shocked he is still pitching with effect >>



    Only when he's at home. He's pitching in a good pitcher's park.

    This year, Johnson's got 3 wins and a 3.00 era in 4 starts at home. On the road, he's got no wins, 2 losses, and a 11.37 era in 3 starts. >>





    The sample size is tiny. What other variables need to be considered? Look at the numbers agaain when the season is over. BTW, AT&T park favored the hitter in 2008. It is certainly not an extreme pitcher's park.
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,748 ✭✭✭✭✭
    [IWhy do people say that we may not see another 300 Game Winner?

    Is 200 the new 300 for pitchers?

    Will we ever see another 300 game winner?

    grote15 said ...

    << Big Unit is stuck at 284, I thought he'd make it, but not so sure now. Mussina may have an outside shot if he pitches long enough, otherwise I don't think you'll see another 300-game winner, much like you won't see another 30-game winner in a regular season (and lately 20 games isd getting rare, too). >>


    Looks like Unit will make it, but Mussina not because he retired.
    /i]

    Pretty much it ended up the way I had envisioned...Big Unit has overcome a lot of physical difficulties to get to 300, and some say he's hanging on just for that reason. I still think it will be extremely difficult for someone else to get there, but I do think it is possible now, at least far more possible than a 30-win season, LOL..


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  • digicatdigicat Posts: 8,551 ✭✭
    Yeah, the sample size is small, but from a Giants fan perspective, he looks like a different pitcher on the road so far.

    Here's his gamelog for this year:

    4/8 = home: 5 innings, 4 hits, 4 runs, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts, 84 pitches
    4/13 = road: 3.2 innings, 7 hits, 7 runs, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts, 91 pitches
    4/19 = home: 7 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts, 73 pitches
    4/25 = road: 3.1 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs 7 walks, 2 strikeouts, 81 pitches
    5/1 = home: 7 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 9 strikeouts, 94 pitches
    5/6 = road: 5.2 innings, 8 hits, 7 runs, 3 walks, 0 strikeouts, 76 pitches
    5/11 = home: 5 innings, 8 hits, 4 runs, 0 walks, 9 strikeouts, 84 pitches


    Yeah, we won't know for certain until the season's over, but right now, I'm far more comfortable seeing Johnson pitch at home than on the road. He's gotten hit HARD on the road.
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  • Yankees001Yankees001 Posts: 1,496 ✭
    He should be. I don't see anyone with a chance in the next 20 years. Most starters only pitch 6-7 innings at the most. the bull pin will blow it, then get the win.

    With teams going to 5-6 man rotations. Randy Johnson will be the last 300 game member.

    Dave
  • larryallen73larryallen73 Posts: 6,067 ✭✭✭
    Active win leaders from baseball-reference.com pasted below. A guy like Pettitte (or Tim Hudson) could do it if he pitchs until he is 46 like Moyer! CC Sabbathia seems the best chance based on numbers of wins at his current age.


    Rank Player (age) Wins Throws
    1. Tom Glavine (43) 305 L
    2. Randy Johnson (45) 298 L
    3. Jamie Moyer (46) 249 L
    4. Andy Pettitte (37) 218 L
    5. Pedro Martinez (37) 214 R
    6. John Smoltz (42) 210 R
    7. Tim Wakefield (42) 182 R
    8. Bartolo Colon (36) 152 R
    9. Livan Hernandez (34) 150 R
    10. Tim Hudson (33) 146 R
    11. Kevin Millwood (34) 145 R
    12. Mike Hampton (36) 143 L
    Steve Trachsel (38) 143 R
    14. Tom Gordon (41) 138 R
    Roy Halladay (32) 138 R
    16. Derek Lowe (36) 131 R
    17. Roy Oswalt (31) 130 R
    Jeff Suppan (34) 130 R
    Javier Vazquez (32) 130 R
    20. Jason Schmidt (36) 128 R
    21. Mark Buehrle (30) 127 L
    22. Esteban Loaiza (37) 126 R
    23. Barry Zito (31) 124 L
    24. Matt Morris (34) 121 R
    25. C.C. Sabathia (28) 119 L
    26. Freddy Garcia (34) 118 R
    Chan Ho Park (36) 118 R
    28. Johan Santana (30) 113 L
    29. Russ Ortiz (35) 112 R
    30. Jon Garland (29) 109 R
    31. Paul Byrd (38) 108 R
    32. Mark Mulder (31) 103 L
    33. Chris Carpenter (34) 101 R
    Kelvim Escobar (33) 101 R
    Shawn Estes (36) 101 L
    Darren Oliver (38) 101 L
    Jarrod Washburn (34) 101 L
    38. Carlos Zambrano (28) 99 R
    39. Brad Penny (31) 97 R
    40. Ted Lilly (33) 96 L
    41. Brett Tomko (36) 95 R
    42. Jeff Weaver (32) 94 R
    43. Josh Beckett (29) 92 R
    Randy Wolf (32) 92 L
    45. John Lackey (30) 91 R
    Sidney Ponson (32) 91 R
    47. Miguel Batista (38) 90 R
    48. A.J. Burnett (32) 89 R
    49. Vicente Padilla (31) 88 R
    Jake Peavy (28) 88 R
    Rank Player (age) Wins Throws
    51. Matt Clement (34) 87 R
    Eric Milton (33) 87 L
    Brandon Webb (30) 87 R
    54. Ben Sheets (30) 86 R
    55. Julian Tavarez (36) 85 R
    56. Doug Davis (33) 83 L
    Jason Marquis (30) 83 R
    58. Kyle Lohse (30) 81 R
    59. Gil Meche (30) 80 R
    60. Arthur Rhodes (39) 79 L
    Jamey Wright (34) 79 R
    62. Ryan Dempster (32) 78 R
    Cliff Lee (30) 78 L
    Kerry Wood (32) 78 R
    65. Bronson Arroyo (32) 76 R
    Joel Pineiro (30) 76 R
    67. Brian Moehler (37) 75 R
    68. Odalis Perez (32) 73 L
    69. Aaron Harang (31) 72 R
    70. Brett Myers (28) 71 R
    71. Adam Eaton (31) 70 R
    72. Kris Benson (34) 69 R
    Carl Pavano (33) 69 R
    Dave Weathers (39) 69 R
    75. Danny Haren (28) 68 R
    Mark Redman (35) 68 L
    Mariano Rivera (39) 68 R
    Dontrelle Willis (27) 68 L
    Jaret Wright (33) 68 R
    80. Glendon Rusch (34) 67 L
    81. Jose Contreras (37) 65 R
    Rodrigo Lopez (33) 65 R
    Kip Wells (32) 65 R
    84. John Thomson (35) 63 R
    Jake Westbrook (31) 63 R
    86. Josh Fogg (32) 62 R
    Wade Miller (32) 62 R
    88. Braden Looper (34) 61 R
    89. LaTroy Hawkins (36) 60 R
    Jason Jennings (30) 60 R
    Carlos Silva (30) 60 R
    92. Jeremy Bonderman (26) 59 R
    93. Ron Villone (39) 57 L
    94. Scott Elarton (33) 56 R
    Trevor Hoffman (41) 56 R
    Jason Johnson (35) 56 R
    Oliver Perez (27) 56 L
    98. Aaron Cook (30) 54 R
    Byung-Hyun Kim (30) 54 R
    Chien-Ming Wang (29) 54 R
  • halosfanhalosfan Posts: 2,643 ✭✭✭✭
    That is a strange list. Lots of low numbers there
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  • TheVonTheVon Posts: 2,725 ✭
    I agree, Larryallen. I think there are a few guys with the potential and the talent to do it but the determing factor has and always will be longevity. In additition to CC, if Johan Santana pitches until he turns 42 he could get to 300 wins with an average of 15.5 wins a season which is not unrealistic for a guy with his talent.

    Guys with an outside chance not on that list because they don't have enough wins yet:

    Lincecum is 24 and he has 28 wins.
    Hamels is 25 and he has 39 wins.
    Kershaw is 21 and he has 6 wins.
  • IchiroDeportedIchiroDeported Posts: 1,610 ✭
    way to early to tell on the younger guys. Some of the truly talented folks on that list didnt start pitching effectively or reach their potential until their mid to late 20's. Plus how many years was Johan just coming out of the pen. Halliday didnt master his stuff for a few years, but if pitches like has been for the next 8-10 years, both he and Santana are a LOCk for the HOF. They wont have 300 wins, but they are the best pitchers of the past 5-6 years.
  • larryallen73larryallen73 Posts: 6,067 ✭✭✭
    That is a strange list.

    Not sure how strange it is. It's simply the top 100 active pitchers in wins.
  • Dave99BDave99B Posts: 8,600 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't think Miguel Batista will make it (#47).

    Dave
    Always looking for original, better date VF20-VF35 Barber quarters and halves, and a quality beer.
  • softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,281 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Ever?

    Dave >>



    No way.

    Eventually a all time great will bust upon the scene as a 19 or 20 year old kid and have a great career with 300 plus wins.
    It is inevitable.

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  • greencrowgreencrow Posts: 867
    Tim Wakefield is going to make it to 300. With that knuckleball, he can pitch till he's 70.
  • BarndogBarndog Posts: 20,504 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Tim Wakefield is going to make it to 300. With that knuckleball, he can pitch till he's 70. >>



    as long as he doesn't pitch too much against LAA!
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