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Giant 1975 Topps mini lot in REA
bsfastball
Posts: 455 ✭
In case some of you missed it, REA just sold A TON of unopened 1975 mini wax. Just doing some quick numbers on what was sold (the wax lots only, excludes the cello cases and the huge raw lot):
26 cases
416 unopened boxes (!)
14,976 packs(!!)
149,760 cards (holy crap!)
The boxes were sold at a weighted average price of $739 including the juice. The best price of the bunch was the second lot of seven cases that sold for $76,375 with the juice, comes to an average price of $10,911 per case, $681 per box and $19 per pack. Worst of the bunch was the single case that sold for $14,100 with the juice - $881 per box, $24.50 per pack. I was tempted to throw a bid on the seven case lot and see if i could flip it over the course of a few years, but that is A LOT of unopened product to be hitting the market.
What do you guys think? Good deals? That's way below the recent ebay prices, but this supply shock will have to bring prices down some.
Linky
26 cases
416 unopened boxes (!)
14,976 packs(!!)
149,760 cards (holy crap!)
The boxes were sold at a weighted average price of $739 including the juice. The best price of the bunch was the second lot of seven cases that sold for $76,375 with the juice, comes to an average price of $10,911 per case, $681 per box and $19 per pack. Worst of the bunch was the single case that sold for $14,100 with the juice - $881 per box, $24.50 per pack. I was tempted to throw a bid on the seven case lot and see if i could flip it over the course of a few years, but that is A LOT of unopened product to be hitting the market.
What do you guys think? Good deals? That's way below the recent ebay prices, but this supply shock will have to bring prices down some.
Linky
0
Comments
<< <i>I wouldn't want to be the guy who put together the number one PSA registry set. >>
There is no emoticon for what he is feeling.
Thanks,
David (LD_Ferg)
1985 Topps Football (starting in psa 8) - #9 - started 05/21/06
Bosox1976
Think it would be wise to slowly leak down that stack of wax to prevent such a drop in
value (unopened and graded)
I'd take a box
Too bad Steve didn't buy it and pass off a case here to the boards!!
Hopefully not like the previous break
ON ITS WAY TO NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92658
<< <i>Too bad Steve didn't buy it and pass off a case here to the boards!! >>
I have a strong suspicion that Steve was very active in quite a few of the unopened packs/boxes lots.
<< <i>
<< <i>Too bad Steve didn't buy it and pass off a case here to the boards!! >>
I have a strong suspicion that Steve was very active in quite a few of the unopened packs/boxes lots. >>
I think I'll send Steve an e-mail and check to see if the BBCE was active... This would make a great group case break!
And 20,000 plus singles!!
There's a pile of gradeable cards there no doubt!
<< <i>In the scheme of how many cases have already been opened over the years and how few high grade cards they have produced I do not think this amount of cases is actually that significant. I would see little effect on prices. On average there would be 225 of each card. I assume there were double prints back then so some cards less. Of those at least 1/2 will be off center. Could be more like 60 or 70%? So you have, at first glance, about 100 potentially gradeable cards of any particular player maybe!? 25% will have a dinged corner, 25% will have poor gloss or a stain, so you are down to 50 potential 8, 9 or 10's. How many of those will be 10's? 2 or 3? Maybe 10 9's and the rest 8's!? I just don't think it will greatly effect prices as some think. >>
If your numbers are right then this influx will have an enormous impact on prices. For many cards just adding one or two 9's to the pop report will result in a > 50% decline in the value of existing cards in that grade.
<< <i>In the scheme of how many cases have already been opened over the years and how few high grade cards they have produced I do not think this amount of cases is actually that significant. I would see little effect on prices. On average there would be 225 of each card. I assume there were double prints back then so some cards less. Of those at least 1/2 will be off center. Could be more like 60 or 70%? So you have, at first glance, about 100 potentially gradeable cards of any particular player maybe!? 25% will have a dinged corner, 25% will have poor gloss or a stain, so you are down to 50 potential 8, 9 or 10's. How many of those will be 10's? 2 or 3? Maybe 10 9's and the rest 8's!? I just don't think it will greatly effect prices as some think. >>
I disagree. I think it will kill the market for 75 mini's. chaz
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
I have no horse in this race as I own very few 75 mini's but for fun why doesn't someone with more time than me post the VCP for 5 or 10 popular cards from '75. Yount, Brett, Ryan, etc.... Then a year from now let's check VCP again. It would certainly be interesting.
Additionally, let's remember that not everybody grades their cards. I do not know what percentage of the card collecting population do not grade cards but I bet it's higher than we think. Since we are primarily into card grading here on this board I think we think EVERYBODY gets their cards graded. I know that's not true as I think of my one friend who has all the sets of the 60's and early 70's sitting in binders and he does not own a single graded card... or my friend who has a '67 set in mint (in a binder) and also owns no graded cards.
Let's follow up around next Cinco de Mayo! Will be interesting....
<< <i>
<< <i>Too bad Steve didn't buy it and pass off a case here to the boards!! >>
I have a strong suspicion that Steve was very active in quite a few of the unopened packs/boxes lots. >>
Just got an e-mail back from Steve at the BBCE - he did not buy any of the boxes at auction but did buy some from a bidder that over-extented himself... He said the BBCE will have these instock in about 10 days or so (no word on pricing)
<< <i>I disagree. I think it will kill the market for 75 mini's. chaz
I have no horse in this race as I own very few 75 mini's but for fun why doesn't someone with more time than me post the VCP for 5 or 10 popular cards from '75. Yount, Brett, Ryan, etc.... Then a year from now let's check VCP again. It would certainly be interesting.
Additionally, let's remember that not everybody grades their cards. I do not know what percentage of the card collecting population do not grade cards but I bet it's higher than we think. Since we are primarily into card grading here on this board I think we think EVERYBODY gets their cards graded. I know that's not true as I think of my one friend who has all the sets of the 60's and early 70's sitting in binders and he does not own a single graded card... or my friend who has a '67 set in mint (in a binder) and also owns no graded cards.
Let's follow up around next Cinco de Mayo! Will be interesting.... >>
Still totally disgree. It will kill the market. That is a ton of product. chaz
Steve
<< <i>I disagree. I think it will kill the market for 75 mini's. chaz >>
chaz
1. Those of you involved in the case break - pro-rate your experience across 26 more cases, assuming all will be ripped (which they will not) - what impact will that have on the graded population?
2. PSA is grading minis brutally hard at the moment
3. Charlie went through 700 cases before he died. The present pop reports reflect those and all other known cards. Compare that to 26 cases, many or most of which will NOT be opened.
4. Tons of people make nice sets and dont grade them.
5. Those of you with actual mini experience: how many gradable cards do you expect there to be out of that 20,000 lot? I bid on it with an expectation of grading 1,000 cards max.
There is zero margin right now grading anything that doesnt look like a solid 9. That along with very tough graders will control the expected pop explosion.
The market for unopened certainly just got a bit softer, but to expect a plethora of high grade minis wrecking the market.... as someone with the experience of being one of the most active mini graders in the last few years, I disagree.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
<< <i>Couple points:
1. Those of you involved in the case break - pro-rate your experience across 26 more cases, assuming all will be ripped (which they will not) - what impact will that have on the graded population?
2. PSA is grading minis brutally hard at the moment
3. Charlie went through 700 cases before he died. The present pop reports reflect those and all other known cards. Compare that to 26 cases, many or most of which will NOT be opened.
4. Tons of people make nice sets and dont grade them.
5. Those of you with actual mini experience: how many gradable cards do you expect there to be out of that 20,000 lot? I bid on it with an expectation of grading 1,000 cards max.
There is zero margin right now grading anything that doesnt look like a solid 9. That along with very tough graders will control the expected pop explosion.
The market for unopened certainly just got a bit softer, but to expect a plethora of high grade minis wrecking the market.... as someone with the experience of being one of the most active mini graders in the last few years, I disagree. >>
There are a lot of factors which are difficult to predict, so we'll have to wait and see. I think your points are very reasonable, and I do think it's possible that this flood of product will have little impact on the prices of low pop PSA 9's--- but, alternatively, it's also possible that prices will decrease substantially, depending on the condition of the cards that come from these breaks. Was the '75 mini break that took place here representatitive of what can be expected from the rest of these cases, or was it just an unusually bad break? Time will tell.
A couple of counterpoints worth considering:
1) Charlie had over 700 cases, but my understanding is that these trickled out onto the market over the past 30 years. It's very possible that a lot of the product that was broken pre-2000 ended up in dealer common bins and so forth, and didn't go straight from the pack to the semi rigid. If this is true then the impact which these previous 700 cases had on the pops will not be predictive of the effect that these 26 cases will have.
2) I would be very surprised if anyone is going to break these cases without intending to send the high-end cards to a TPG. Thus, I would expect that any card that comes from this find that is gradable will (for the most part) be graded.
3) It shouldn't take a flood of cards to effect the prices of low pop commons. How many PSA 9 Singletons or Steve Rogers' will need to come out of this for the current market prices to bottom out? Four? Five?
Like LA said, all we can do is wait and see what happens. Really, almost anything is possible here. To think that the value of current PSA sets will just flatline is almost certainly wrong, but a loss in the 10-20% range seems feasible, and for guys who have a lot of money wrapped up in the set that would represent a signficant decline.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
Bosox1976
As far as pop numbers, there are a lot of major cards in the set with 0-1 10s and 10-15 9s.
examples:
#2 (Brock HL): 13 9s, 0 10s
#3 (Gibson HL): 11 9s, 0 10s
#5 (Ryan HL): 12 9s, 1 10
#21 (Fingers): 10 9s, 0 10s
#30 (Blyleven): 4 9s, 0 10s
#50 (B. Robinson): 11 9s, 1 10
#60 (F. Jenkins): 8 9s, 1 10
#140 (Garvey): 8 9s, 0 10s
#150 (Gibson): 15 9s, 1 10
#160 (Nettles): 9 9s, 0 10s
#202 ('64 MVPs): 13 9s, 1 10
#208 ('70 MVPs): 15 9s, 1 10
#212 ('74 MVPs): 13 9s, 1 10
#284 (Griffey): 11 9s, 0 10s
#310 (Victory Leaders): 11 9s, 0 10s
#311 (ERA Leaders): 14 9s, 0 10s
#390 (Cey): 7 9s, 0 10s
#400 (D. Allen): 4 9s, 0 10s
#430 (Tiant): 13 9s, 0 0s
#459 (ALCS): 3 9s, 0 10s
#460 (NLCS): 3 9s, 0 10s
#463 (WS Game 3): 4 9s, 0 10s
#464 (WS Game 4): 12 9s, 1 10
#465 (WS Game 5): 9 9s, 0 10s
#530 (G. Perry): 12 9s, 0 10s
#545 (B. Williams): 13 9s, 1 10
#564 (Tommy Davis): 0 9s, 0 10s!
#580 (F. Robinson): 12 9s, 0 10s
#600 (Carew): 9 9s, 0 10s
#623 (K. Hernandez/Garner rookie): 14 9s, 1 10
#640 (Killebrew): 12 9s, 0 10s
The G. Brett rookie has 0 10s. Ignore this . I was looking at the wrong line. It has 6 10s.
T. Davis is the only card with 0 9s, although 5 others (S. Rogers, Randle, Singleton, Etchebarren, and Claudell Washington) only have 1 9 and 0 10s.
There are 11 sets or near sets with GPAs over 8.1, and another near set (that's a second set of one of those active builders) that's over 8.0. 4 more people seem to be regularly looking for the PSA 9 or above level - GPA over 8.1 and at least 10% complete.
Between player, team (especially Reds and Red Sox), and set collectors locking high grade cards away, many of the star cards from this set just are not circulating in PSA 9 or PSA 10 form.
IMO prices for PSA 9s won't take a statistically significant hit unless you add >5 new 9s in a short time to the cards, and considering that quite a number of the packs won't be opened in the near future, I doubt you'll see more than 5 new 9s within the next year from this hoard on a lot of cards.
Prices for PSA 10s are far too variable to hazard a guess - that's more about the depth of pockets of the top couple active collectors than anything else.
Nick
[edited to correct mistake]
Reap the whirlwind.
Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
<< <i>Train wreck revisited. Thanks Nick. >>
Sorry Mike, but he asked for the batch stamp.
<< <i>........The G. Brett rookie has 0 10s............. >>
There are actually 6 of them.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
cards hitting the market in one time. Only time will tell as to POP report and values.
There are actually 6 of them.
Whoops. Wrong line. My bad.
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
Had they sold 225 card player lots would it be different, granted some will not be opened, but I think given the bargain prices and all the speculation I would rip and submit fast to try and get the first batches on ebay. Would a lot of 225 untouched Nolan Ryan HLs affect the market?
If any of you are holding mini 8's and 9's and feel the market is dead and dying. send me your set list.
1975 mini's
1954 Wilson Franks
<< <i>Did the stack of Gil Hodges Dormand postcards effect the market?
Had they sold 225 card player lots would it be different, granted some will not be opened, but I think given the bargain prices and all the speculation I would rip and submit fast to try and get the first batches on ebay. Would a lot of 225 untouched Nolan Ryan HLs affect the market? >>
If I could ever of bought one of those cases, believe me there would be a stack of wrappers so high in search of low pop 9's and 10's
before the premiums fell right off them. Claudell 9's would be commons in no time
Think about the people who have intentions of breaking into them
<< <i>ok who wants in to buy some of these??? Steve will be selling boxes for $999 >>
EVIL BBCE!!!
Would blow whistles if they were anything like the previous rip
ON ITS WAY TO NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92658
<< <i>I wonder how many more of these unopened cases are out there? >>
I'm currently buying all the 1989 Donruss cases I can find. Laugh now, but wait until the year 2040 when I release them back on the market. The pop report will be devastated.
More to come once the stubborn Oldschool guys learn (finally) they can sell some cards that used to be 50 cent commons for 3 figure now.
Damage to demand for minis had already happened pre-REA by the "short minis" controversy involving some of the bigger submitters (allegedly, of course), and prices will never rebound to what they were prior to that occurrence.
As far as REA, a year later the toughest commons in PSA 9 still bring three figures easy, as will most of the stars (if they are full size and not artificially short). And 10s are still through the roof. There has been no significant increase in the # of Schmidts, Ryans, Aarons, etc as a result of last year's auction. A few new nines out there, but not enough to satisfy demand or lower prices on most stars and RCs.
I do think the quantity of 8's has increased across the board, and you can pick those up for the price of grading. It is a good time to put together an all-PSA 8 mini set.
Don't know what the average was for last year.
<< <i>There is no emoticon for what he is feeling.
LOL! +1 for classic Comic Book Guy reference!