Is the popularity of the unopened pak market in decline?

summerof68

Perhaps some of you pak enthusiasts read my topic last week about a ebay seller who last week sold a '70 bb rak pak gai 8 with stars showing for $810 that originally sold at Mastro in their summer '07 auction for $1640. The seller mistakingly listed the rak under (pre-80 football paks) instead of baseball. I just assumed that it was this mistake that lead to his taking such a beating on the rak. However at the same time this same seller listed a '71 topps football rak pak gai 8.5 with Czonka on back and he (correctly) listed it under pre-80 football. These '71 fb raks are much scarcer than their '71 bb rak counterparts. Anyways because they are so rare I had no idea what it would go for and it only went for $540 in a 7-day auction. So I researched Mastro's data base and found that this identical rak sold in their '06 Fall Classic for $1626! So this seller took even a bigger hit on this rak than he did on his '70 bb rak. And since it wasn't listed in the wrong ebay category I can't use this as reasoning for its sharp decline in value. Now I understand the economy is bad but how can such a rare, star-backed rak sell for $1626 in Oct. 06 at Mastro and then sell for only $540 on ebay in April 09? Is Gai's reputation so tarnished to cause such a drop in bidder interest? Or do bidders at these major prestigious auction houses simply work themselves into a frenzy! Or perhaps is the unopened pak market losing some its steam? I don't have an answer but any thoughts would be appreciated.

OAKESY25

the reputation is a huge part I would say.. also.. the 1st sale was at the height of the economy and the 2nd and the hopeful bottom

DrJ

The unopened pack market is a small niche of the total baseball card market so it is more susceptible to wild swings in pricing if/when other collectors are on the market for the same product. The other question is whether or not the plastic enclosing the cards is more valuable than the cards themselves.

Griffins

I think GAI had a lot to do with killing the market. Between reseals and bogus grocery cellos the perception is that most of this stuff is bad. Add in PAOutdoorsman and the guy currently resealing on ebay and you've got a lot of scammers out there, both with graded and ungraded material. Nothing worse than buying something just to find out it's no good.
Fortunately there are people like Steve Hart and others that are honest and have done a lot to fix the hobby, at least this niche.
I love unopened wax and think a pack makes a great complement to a set, or just on its own. Prices are definitely down on most '60's and 70's packs and it's a great time to build a collection. But know who you are buying from. While Steve isn't the cheapest place to get packs he stands behind what he sells, as do many of the legit sellers on ebay. If the price is too good to be true (as in the Goudey and Batter Up packs on ebay) it's because they are.

grote15

I'd say the economy has been somewhat of a factor, but as Griffins said, the number of bad packs up for sale on ebay has also turned off a lot of collectors, too. It's important to remember, however, that by and large, the prices realized in a Mastro auction are going to generally be far higher than the prices realized on ebay for unopened material. The last Mile High auction about a month ago had a 1979 Topps rack pack with an OC Smith RC on top fetch $300 (not including juice). I got one on ebay with a decently centered Smith RC on top a couple years back for less than half that. I can also remember when I could get 1975 baseball rack packs on ebay for about $160 each about 4-5 years ago. Now, they usually go for $200+. Prices for PSA graded 1971 baseball wax have been strong of late, too..

Griffins

I wonder how many collectors of packs have more than one of any particular year?
At the PSA luncheon in '04 Joe Orlando was asked if PSA was moving into pack grading, because Baker and Rocchi had left PSA, formed Global, and started grading packs. He said he doubted it, since most collectors will buy one pack from a particular year and move on, and that wasn't a good business model to cater to. Obviously things have changed in the viability of PSA doing that, but he did have a good point.
I get one from each year of each type- eg a penny pack and nickel pack from '65, etc. I'm sure there are others like this too.
I think a lot of people that were interested in packs went out and got them when grading started and gave a bit of confidence in the legitimacy of the product. It's possible that most that want them have them, and prices are reflecting simple supply and demand.

summerof68

Thanks for informative opinions thus far. I first became attracted to pak collecting in '03. Back then it was rare for a slabbed 1970 bb wax pak to come on ebay--maybe one every two to three weeks or so. Now it seems they are coming on every day. What attracted me most to pak collecting was the simple premise that with each pak that was opened by people looking for high-grade cards the supply of those particular paks would be decreased forever which would lead to an ever decreasing supply making these paks rarer as time went by. But what is happening now is so many people are selling resealed paks on ebay that when a person opens a "bad" pak the "real" supply has not been reduced. I guess what I am saying is that legit paks aren't being opened as fast as they normally would be because bad paks are flooding the market and being opened instead. Additionally many collectors are being turned off from the hobby when they are burned by these bad paks thus the demand for unopened paks falls when the collector get frustrated and quits. So it seems to me that the whole dynamics of supply and demand with respect to paks has been substantially skewed. Its a shame because I really love the unopened part of the hobby but it seems like with everything else these days greedy, unethical people come along and screw things up!!

Aric

I think the recent buyers of those racks could make a hefty profit with proper listings, better scans and a little patience.

TheVon

What is a pak?

nightcrawler

I only watch one specific year and it seems to have gotten stronger.


There are less and less items all the time for that year though.

summerof68

nightcrawler, the suspense is killing me... could it be '71?....maybe '69?

TheCARDKid

High dollar packs from anonymous sellers on ebay isnt a good formula.

Anonymous being anyone other than steve hart, dave and adams card world, mark murphy (does he still sell), or anyone not known in the hobby.

Very little seperating the paoutdoorsmen's of the world from xyz seller (even one with a good reputation). Add the GAI mess/uncertainty. Plus economic weakness, and you get a recipe for poor sales.

I'd stick with top dealers like Steve Hart. You pay 20 or 30% more. But cheaper than having one of every 3 or 4 packs you buy turn out to be fake from a cheaper source.

Long term, wax is still a good bet, supply/demand is very favorable. The supply slowly goes down, you have underlying value in the content of the pack, and as long as high grade cards get a premium, its hard to see the market collapsing.

packCollector

I jsut sold a 57 guild cello last week for a hefty price so the rare stuff is still holding up. I think the auction market in general is week. I have sold several fixed price items for solid prices for solid items. auctions go for a huge discount because of what many bidders perceive as true market values based on all the resealed crap that is on ebay. take that out of the price and if you are selling good stuff, it will sell at your price.

nightcrawler

<< <i>nightcrawler, the suspense is killing me... could it be '71?....maybe '69? >>




Ha ha, no it's '73.

1989FleerBillRipkencollector

<< <i>What is a pak? >>




Made up word by the companies in the 80's. By dropping one letter, they saved .03 per container so the $ could be applied to printing more cards.

I'm curious as well.

summerof68

"what is a pak"?

Its a short version of pack---similar to taking the "c" out of crap and you get rap--two words that are spelled differently yet are the same!

Thanks for the picture ripkencollector--If topps can refer to the own product as "Raks" then it is ok by me....

jmoran19

here's a picture of what summer of 68 is referring too, John

summerof68

Fantastic vintage picture Jmoran19. I first began busting rak paks in 1968 at the age of 12 and your picture is the first I've ever seen showing a rak full of '60's era raks--your picture made my day!!!--not to mention vindicating my spelling....

jmoran19

It must be your lucky rak day:

1961



1962



1963



1964

magellan

Great pictures John !

BobS

+1 Woody Held Sighting.

Cool Piks

summerof68

Ok that does it... now I won't be able to sleep tonight! I knew they made '62 & '63 raks but I had never seen one or a picture of one until now. Seriously though I really appreciate it. Raks were my favorite as a kid and your pictures really bring back some fond memories for me...and that's what this hobby really is all about!!!

packCollector

great pics John, I have seen the 61-63 adds before but never the 64 triple red cello rack. that is unbelieveable. it would be impossible to put a price on one if it ever surfaced. very very cool!!!

jmoran19

Summer, will these keep you up all week then?

FYI none of these are mine, I just save pictures of rare/unusual/cool topps stuff. My rak run starts with 1968 (Thanks Duncan!)

1958



1959



1961 (again) and 1960

jmoran19

<< <i>great pics John, I have seen the 61-63 adds before but never the 64 triple red cello rack. that is unbelieveable. it would be impossible to put a price on one if it ever surfaced. very very cool!!! >>



Dang it Duncan, it's rak!!

NickM

On the '58 rack, Wynn is 1 a 1st series, card, while the Mantle and Spahn AS cards are last series. Very interesting.

Nick

jmoran19

pre 1968 rak paks were just 3 individual cello packs wrapped in the rak wrapper.

Just guessing but maybe 1958 is the first year topps made rak paks to move unsold cello packs? I never bought any as I wasn't even a cold beer in my dad's fridge at that time.

packCollector

john, isn't the 58 the one that Ken had which was a fake. don't recall seeing the 59 before . the few 58's that ken had were deemed fakes so I am not sure rak's existed before 60.

summerof68

As a lover of vintage rak paks these pictures are driving me crazy! I must say however that I am a person of first impressions and the '58 rak brought up several red flags for me. Firstly, all the headers on the '60 thru '66 raks all said "baseball" in large, bold letters. The '58 & '59 only said hobby cards. Secondly there is a '60 bb rak on Mastro right now auction #402. This '60 rak along with the raks in your pictures all have very tight cellophane with no slack whatsoever along the top and bottom long edges of the rak. The '58 has lots of slack on all sides. Also the Mastro's '60 rak has a high resolution picture of the back and it clearly shows the cellophane at the bottom is pulled back under the lowest cello and forms a flap about 1/2 up the back that cello-similar to the bottom of a wax tray. The '58 rak has just a cut edge at the bottom. Also the cello on the '58 looks perfectly clear and soft while the edges are "unbelieveably straight" exhibiting no curling whatsoever giving the appearance it was made just yesterday--51 year-old cellophane that looks one day old defies the laws of physics! Also one of the staples in the '58 rak is "unfactory like" crooked while the other is straight. And what are the odds that possibly the only '58 rak to survive would have Mantle on top and in the sweet spot (the middle) let alone two other Hall-of-famers? Plus there's a vintage ebay seller (user id cmj13) who writes a monthly newletter specializing in vintage paks and in one article he writes that 1960 is "believed" to be the first year Topps began producing rak paks. With all this being said my impression of the '58 & '59 raks is they are home made and the "generic" headers were taken from early '60s non-sports raks. I'm no Steve Hart or Mark Murphy but I have an "eagle" eye for detail and both the '58 & '59 raks rub me wrong. It would be especially nice to hear from Steve Hart, grote15 or anyone else as to their educated thoughts.

Ripken

Q&A with Steve Hart on vintage packs from a few months ago.

summerof68

Thanks Ripken for the link. I have specialized in unopened material over the last six years and have spoken with Steve Hart several times at length concerning bad product and what to look for. Consequently I am already aware of all that was mentioned in that link. A simple look at the back of that '58 rak will tell me all I need to know. 1957 thru 1961 topps cellos have a very unique rear seal configuration. It looks virtually identical to that of wax trays. Unfortunately Gai authenticated dozens and dozens of homemade cellos from these years and sadly enough the rear seal configurations on these bad cellos slabbed by Gai aren't even close to resembling the seal configurations of the legit cellos from that era!! My guess is all three cellos in that '58 rak are bogus. Just within the last couple of weeks a saw an obviously "bad" gai slabbed bb cello from the late '50's sell on ebay for several thousand dollars. I won't mention the year because this will pinpoint the pak and I don't want to light a fire so to speak. But as Steve Hart says in the link you provided you really have to be careful out there as people are even resealing rak paks of all things and that resealed & homemade rak paks are the BIGGEST problem in the hobby today!!!

jmoran19

<< <i>john, isn't the 58 the one that Ken had which was a fake. don't recall seeing the 59 before . the few 58's that ken had were deemed fakes so I am not sure rak's existed before 60. >>



No idea as I'm not part of Ken's inner circle. I don't have a picture of the back of it but the general consensus is it's a fake

packCollector

thanks for the link , although there was not anything new in there for me , it is always nice to read and nice to see education being shared. nice seeing my former 66 rak in the story as well

1989FleerBillRipkencollector

<< <i>Q&A with Steve Hart on vintage packs from a few months ago. >>



That "Donovan" guy sounds nice.

TheVon

I an't handle the lak of appropriate spelling on this thread. For the life of me I an't figure out what is wrong with the letter "sea" and why it uriously disappeared here. an anyone tell me why this is razy trend ontinues?

1989FleerBillRipkencollector

It's funny how I also see rack spelled rak on ebay.

Wish I knew why they spelled pack, pak.

Product Authorization Key....Nah.

Hmm, I think I'll email Topps.