Dave Harpers Perspective on the 2009 Lincoln Log Cabin Cent

FullStrike

Birthplace Lincoln mintages revealed
Posted by Dave


Final mintage numbers for the 2009 Birthplace Lincoln cent are now available.

For collectors who have been used to totals in the billions and billions, the numbers are refreshingly low. The question is, are they low enough to feed the current online trading frenzy, or will the market phenomenon begin to abate?

The Philadelphia Mint struck 284.8 million of the coins. The Denver Mint struck 350 million. The combined total is 634.8 million.

You have to go back to 1954 to find a combined annual cent output total that is lower.

If you want to look at simply the mintage of a single coin, the circulation strike 1968-S cent has a mintage of 261,311,507.

Looking at the value of the 1968-S, Coin Market lists it at $8 in MS-65. Of course, not all 1968-S cents make it to MS-65 and neither do all 2009 Birthplace cents.

Arguing the case from the other side, the scarcity factor for the 2009 is amplified because the coin is also a type coin. There will be no others like it. Every collector who wants an example of the design has to pull it from the pool of 634.8 million. Nobody has to buy a 1968-S cent to obtain the design type. Any coin struck from 1959 to 2008 will do.

As long as collectors remain anxious about obtaining specimens, the secondary market will be supported. But to make one last comparison to the 1968-S cent, it was midsummer 1968 before I saw one in change. Were we more patient then?

Before I say yes, I should point out that the secondary market frenzy that year was directed to the proof set, which also had “S” mintmarks on the coins. They were the first proof sets to feature coins with mintmarks. Eventually, that set’s price came down to earth, but it took a while.

FullStrike

Hey, there's only 5,696,000 rolls of P - Minted Log Cabin Lincolns out there ! No wonder everyone is so excited !

And to think there are only 113,920 boxes of 50 rolls out there. Buy em up before they are no more.

dbldie55

Considering they are making 4 types this year, one would expect the mintage to be lower than for a year with one type only.

I did get one of these in change over the weekend.

LanLord

Too bad the mint wont ship them to people that ordered them

I hate the mint!
I hate the mint!
I hate the mint!
I hate the mint!
I hate the mint!
I hate the mint!
I hate the mint!
I hate the mint!

InternetJunky

<< <i>Considering they are making 4 types this year, one would expect the mintage to be lower than for a year with one type only.

I did get one of these in change over the weekend. >>



I was thinking the same thing. Now its going to be a matter of which reverse willl have the lowest mintage. Even still, these boxes of Log Cabins will be on ebay bringing in a $200 premium for who knows how long once these mintage figures become more widely known.

19Lyds

Welcome to the Wonderful World of Coin Collecting!

New items ALWAYS generate new EXCITEMENT and a stiff secondary market!

True collectible value only begins many years down the road and typically with new releases, especially first year issues, the prices really drop as literally everybody and his brother hoards these away. The end result is that 20 years from now, millions of these coins will be available for 1/10 of what they sell today. Only the truely high grade coins will retain their current values.

This is the way it has always been and this is the way it will always be.

tahoe98

........good point, lee.

CaptHenway

<< <i>Considering they are making 4 types this year, one would expect the mintage to be lower than for a year with one type only.

I did get one of these in change over the weekend. >>



Quite right!
TD

FullStrike

Personally, knowing that there are 634.8 million of these things out there, I can't get excited by them at all. To me a penny is a penny. Now give me a "POS/ modern crap" Platinum Eagle and we're in a much different situation - excitement city!

Will these '09 Cents maintain any premium over face? I really don't care! I'm thinking that even if the upcoming 95% copper proofs sell over 5 million examples, they will be the highlight of the 2009 Lincolns.

So in the end, all I have to say is, if 2009 circulation strike Lincolns turn you on, just go for them. In 25 years, when 70% of the mintage still exists in roll form - keep on hoping for the bull market to finally reward you for your faith. Perhaps by then we'll finally be into electrons as our only currency.

Maybe, you can sell the Zinc Lincolns to a battery maker, or something.

Or be the last hoarder standing, and really have some rare rolls. But just hope someone actually wants to collect the things.

northcoin

I guess another way to look at it is if you can get 2 cents for the sale of a penny you have made 100 percent profit.

lathmach

Personally, knowing that there are 634.8 million of these things out there, I can't get excited by them at all.FullStrike


The mintage does seem like a lot looking at the number.
If you consider the U.S. population is 425 million people though, that means theres only 1 1/2 coins for each person in the country.
With collectors and speculators hoarding these, the new Lincoln Cents will be coins many people in the general population will never get to see.

Ray

ilikebuffaloes

If you compare the mintage to the State Quarters, it is similar. Some issues of the SHQ are getting tough to find in unc bags and rolls and the asking price from dealers is up (but this is for issues from 1999 and 2000). The Mint issed roll sets may soften a bit once they are all shipped, but I think they will stay over $50 per set for an unopened set.

But this is just my prediction, I've been wrong before!

halfhunter

I figure I'll buy these & stick'em back in the closet with the hundreds of rolls of mint wrapped nickels.
When I croak the ole lady can roll on the bank floor laughing at my stupid azz for paying 9 bucks for a dollar in pennies, & $4 in nickels, as she's depositing them.

Regards,

John