AU & AG off a cliff this morning

Weiss

As my man Kelso would say: Buy the dip!

dragon

AU off nearly 30.00 now.

ziggy29

Hmm. CPI shows inflation despite all the "deflation" fears. The price of TIPS has risen sharply today. The dollar is getting mauled. These would seem bullish for gold.

And yet gold is getting killed? Maybe the conspiracy folks are right...

roadrunner

Like Kelso, I bought the dip this morning in both gold stocks and generic US gold. This move was expected as one final touch of $900-$910 seemed to be due, just didn't expect it to make it into the mid-$880's. Even though gold bullion made a $6 lower low from late February, the gold stocks made significantly higher lows based on the last pull back on March 9th. Gold stocks seem to be leading plus they are less manipulated than the Comex futures. Asia had a minor $10 sell-off, the Comex took another $25.

Considering that the FED's FOMC was meeting today at 2:15 pm, a move on the metals was entirely expected. The Euro and Yen strengthened against the dollar so that's not normally what the FED wants during their meeting, unless planned weakness is now in the cards. The dollar seems headed back to the .83 or lower level. Oil also took a pounding along with gold and silver. Note also that the bankster stocks took a 5-10% jump up while the DOW went down 100 pts......very odd. It looks as if the PPT is helping the banksters prior to today's FOMC meeting. They will probably try to give the main market a lift before 2:00 so that everything is where they want it. Maybe quarterly options expiring today has something to do with SPY/DOW pulling back. Then they will proceed to tell us nothing new. PPT tracks all over the place this morning.

Time to get ready to start next major wave up in gold. The one that takes us back to $990.

roadrunner

57loaded

where are we in Alf's Elliott Wave theory of POG

there's a hiccup

mhammerman

"The price of TIPS has risen sharply today."

YUMMY!

roadrunner

Alf Field stopped making his predictions public back in late November. His last article had gold pulling back in major corrective wave 2 from March 2008 to mid-November 2008. That would be a rather short 8 month pull back following a 6-7 year move up. Recall that the move up to $730 gold in early 2006 took the next 18 months to work out. But on the flip side, volatility is increasing all around us, and the economic problems are only accelerating so the waves from here should be shorter than the earlier waves.

Assuming that November's low of $700 is not taken out later, major wave 3 up would have started in November. If that remains true, then we just finished the first intermediate wave 1 of up from Nov-Feb ($700 to $1007). One of the 2 later intermediate up-legs in this major wave should take out $1000 quite convincingly. The only possible glitch is that we could still correct back towards $700 and keep a wave 2 correction in progress longer. This would just delay the start of major wave 3 and if anything make it stronger.

Gold stocks hanging in at current levels is one of the first signs that we are still in major wave 3 up. Since they have been leading gold since November, the bullish scenario seems to have the higher probability. The correction in bullion so far is only about 40%, one would have expected something closer to a 50% haircut (ie $850) before moving on.

roadrunner

RedTiger

Don't read too much into this one day of action, because it is the Wednesday before option expiration. Big moves, related to unwinding of positions, and disruptions caused by moving positions to the next month or next quarter forward are common.

MoneyLA

Funny how this "gold bull market" works, isn't it?

roadrunner

Funny how this gold bull market works

You can say that again. The FED and Treasury throw everything at gold that they can hoping something will stick and keep it down. Each time gold gets close to a new high they find some foreign nation "willing" to dump some gold on the fire. Just yesterday they came out with some scheme resurrected from 40 years ago about special drawing rights on IMF issued "money." See Sinclair for further details on that red herring.

The FED's words today immediately spiked gold right back to $900 while crushing the dollar into the .85 level. Massive smackdown on the dollar. Even made the stock market flip around and go positive.
Well that was a short stay under $900......sure smells like a gold bull when you can't keep the metals down.

Woah, just as I was writing the above, gold moved from $900 to $922. Nice slingshot effect! Boing..........The whole idea of a gold bull is to toss off the weak hands whenever you can. The move over the last 2 days probably did just that. Lots of stops hit and a surprise move right back at ya. Oops, not $922, but now $928. Note that gold more so that silver and the other PM's was privvy to the spike down. Nope....no manipulation here before the FED's "surprise" assumption of $750 BILL in mortgage debt. Wonder what gold would have done had it started at $920 today rather than pushed down to $885? Hmmmmmmmm........

roadrunner

Placid

That didnt last long.

roadrunner

Bogus manipulations rarely do.

roadrunner

fc

all i can say is that silver and gold are not trading like commodities anymore.
they are full fledged gambling areas. there is no rhyme or reason to it in my eyes.
fear and greed is driving the train. one day hot, the next day cold. without bad news
coming out every week i see them falling much lower in the future until they reach
a sane trading pattern.

Weiss

Fed to buy $300B in treasury bonds. Gold is now up $30+ from its low this morning

roadrunner

all i can say is that silver and gold are not trading like commodities anymore. they are full fledged gambling areas. there is no rhyme or reason to it in my eyes. fear and greed is driving the train. one day hot, the next day cold. without bad news coming out every week i see them falling much lower in the future until they reach
a sane trading pattern.

You're missing the big picture. If you didn't assume there was no manipulation to keep the metals and their stocks down, it would all be much clearer. The Ponzi stock market has been a gambling arena for a decade or longer.....only it took recent events to show how that really was. I can understand the metals markets, but can make no sense out of the larger stock market. Toss in bonds and the dollar up until the last week or so whose strength makes no sense in the current environment. The longer it goes on, the more sheeple will wake up to the truth behnd it all. From mid-March to April should be a strong move for gold...just my 2 cents.

Well I guess even the FED showed some new tricks today with buying more MBS and promising to buy up to $300 BILL in long term treasuries....because other buyers are scarce to none. The dollar tanking sure boosted the stock market, though in my mind, the govt buying up more debt as the source of last resort, doesn't make real sense. Though I guess in an inflationary future environment, the stock market can be at 14,000 again while the dollar makes new lows.

Gold up $47 from this morning's "one hour" low. Stock market now over 7500 and blistering. Is this what a deflation looks like? Hip hip for dip! I like these dips. The one back on March 9th was so quick that it lasted mere minutes.....this one was at least buyable.

This headline from Kitco was priceless today: gold craze ending, prices may plunge .........a quote from the article follows:

To cut short the story, gold is slowly losing its charm as a safe haven investment. Because, the world is slowly getting out of the slump, that means investors don’t need any safe havens now.

Uhh yeah, thanks again Kitco for that accurate forecast. You heard it hear first, no safe havens needed from confiatti.

roadrunner

MoneyLA

So... does the Fed's action today drive interest rates into the "negatives?"

And as we know, low interest rates help to finance everything including the purchase and holding of precious metals... not to mention the long term inflationary threat.

Discussion? thanks.

jmski52

I can understand the metals markets, but can make no sense out of the larger stock market.

Jim Rogers has been painted as being "unpatriotic" for being in Hong Kong, but he has a recent video on utube talking about US Stocks being "impaired assets." And he is right about that. That's about all you need to know about stocks until Congress, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Obama, Pelosi and Reid get out of the business of running private capital enterprises.

And Geithner, he's a whole story unto himself.

I would agree with Obama on some things, such as trying to find ways to keep upper managements honest - except for the fact that he is lying when he says them.

Alan (LA Money) - do you really think that today's price swings in gold are normal market activity?

all i can say is that silver and gold are not trading like commodities anymore.
they are full fledged gambling areas. there is no rhyme or reason to it in my eyes.
fear and greed is driving the train. one day hot, the next day cold. without bad news
coming out every week i see them falling much lower in the future until they reach
a sane trading pattern.

fc, here's your chance to take a look at the big picture. The Fed is going to be "buying" T-Bills (because nobody else will). That is a major announcement, in terms of monetary policy. It's the dollar that they are using to ruin people. Go to Jim Sinclair's web page and take a glance at the dollar index chart. Tell me what you see in the chart.

It's not silver and gold that are trading hot and cold. They are being manipulated, probably for JP Morgan's and Goldman Sachs' benefit. Gold was WAY down UNTIL they made their announcement about the Fed buying T-Bills. THEN we get a major bounce. This is your chance. Do you see how and why they drove gold down, before making the announcement, and now that the announcement is made, nobody likes it? Except for those who knew what was coming. Do you see it? Just curious.

roadrunner

jmski52, I did see it this morning and was surprised by it. But I had made up my mind yesterday based on the action I was seeing that gold might only give us one more down day to $900 and then off to the races again. I filled my basket to the brim with various miners. Also added a nice group of generic gold slabs from a wholesaler figuring that tomorrow the prices would be up. If we go back at $880 again, my bad. But I'm fully back in again...and I'm not settling for a quick 5-10% right now like I did during the past 2 weeks.

All bets are off when evaluation long term interest rates and their "effect" on apparent inflation. The banksters have manipulated those artificially low over the past decade via $100 TRILL in Interest Rate Swaps to help keep apparent inflation in check. Inflation is already baked in. Just a matter of when and how much shows up. And during all that FED baking, the economy got cooked as a side dish.

Keep on paying attention to interest rates, TARPs, TALFs, and other govt produced stats. I will in turn watch precious metals as one of the few "real" things left. The FED's interbank rates are already at 0% but considering all the derivatives/CDO/MBS crap they have been buying, they are in effect giving out money/interest for nothing. Real treasury rates can fall further, esp since the FED is apparently going to fund their purchase. They could go from 3.7% on the 30 yr right to 0%. But I don't see how that helps us in the long run considering we need real investors to buy our bonds and invest in our production. PM's will do just fine in a lower interest rate environment as more money is printed out of thin air...that's one of the things they respond to. They will also respond to rising interest rates once the govt is serious about slowing the inflation train down the road (ie think late 1970's). Let's also not forget that hundreds of TRILLIONs in swaps and derivatives are still out there. We are a long ways from having fixed this problem or even devising a reasonable solution.

Now things making more sense. Stock market pulling back some, dollar continuing to be hammered by Euro/Yen, gold ($940), oil ($49), silver ($12.80) and copper ($1.75) all moving up. If the close could be extended an hour today we'd probably see $950+. Everything I can see is supporting a gold move....esp the weaker dollar.

roadrunner

mhammerman

"That's about all you need to know about stocks until Congress, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Obama, Pelosi and Reid get out of the business of running private capital enterprises."

As one guy stated at work today...The congress is visibly outraged at this situation with AIG but they went ahead and bought 100,000 at $.60.

jmski52

As one guy stated at work today...The congress is visibly outraged at this situation with AIG but they went ahead and bought 100,000 at $.60.

Biggest AIG recipients: Chris Dodd, Barack Obama.

roadrunner

Supposedly the FED and Treasury knew of those bonuses back in November. Sen. Dodd was the one who added the bonus provision to the first TARP bill. I wonder how many our our elected officials and unelected regulators loaded up on AIG before today's announcements?

roadrunner

Weiss

<< <i>

Biggest AIG recipients: Chris Dodd, Barack Obama. >>



In third place: John McCain.

jmski52

In third place: John McCain.

What a cooincidence. Good thing we had a choice, eh?

Weiss

<< <i>

What a cooincidence. Good thing we had a choice, eh? >>



Oh it gets better. Also in the top 10:

Romney
Biden
H. Clinton
Giuliani