since i do not own a couple 1000 ounces of silver at the moment i should not be able to discuss it?
Not at all, but since you insist on missing the point, perhaps I should have said that it's ludicrous for you to ridicule someone else's buying, holding or selling strategies if it doesn't match your own - you are most guilty of doing the very thing that you decry others doing.
This is a valid point and is why so many PM bugs never make money--they ride the metals up and then right back down without ever cashing in to make a profit.
You are incorrect. I've made alot of money in metals, I don't hold them all the time, and I sell them when I choose. You are generalizing and provide no facts.
But then again the gold/silver bugs don't want to make money since they believe money is worthless.
Again, only taunting - no facts. There is no basis for your saying that pm guys don't want to make money. OTOH, there's no reason to be throwing it down a rathole, either. Money isn't worthless - it's fiat. Once you know what you're dealing with, you are better able to manage it, ya think?
As far as the question raised by the original poster, I still don't understand why silver isn't $7.50 or less.
You discount what the Congress, the Treasury and the Fed are doing, do you? Do so at your own peril. CalGold, I don't know whether or not you are simply playing "devil's advocate" or what - but if you really believe most of the things you're saying, I would expect you to be in stocks and T-Bills. Are you?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I'm being absolutely serious and the name of the game is supply and demand and demand is much higher than supply in some places. So call me irrational if you wish, but I'd rather have it at those prices than in a few months at $50/oz and a couple years at $100-$500/oz.
>>
this is the year 2009. buying your silver from a shark is not rational behavior. you are online. you have google. there is really no excuse for not buying it from a trusted source who sells near or at least close to spot.
i have a feeling this is what is driving the metals market right now. fundamentals brought it up to the point where it is now. all the worries and concerns are already built into the price. what is going on now is human behavior being what it is. not fundamentals. >>
I don't understand why you consider a price of $20/oz. so outrageous. On ebay, here's one of many similar auctions, this time for 4 100 oz. Englehard bars for nearly $8000, or just under $20/oz. So what am I missing?
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
I'm being absolutely serious and the name of the game is supply and demand and demand is much higher than supply in some places. So call me irrational if you wish, but I'd rather have it at those prices than in a few months at $50/oz and a couple years at $100-$500/oz.
>>
this is the year 2009. buying your silver from a shark is not rational behavior. you are online. you have google. there is really no excuse for not buying it from a trusted source who sells near or at least close to spot.
i have a feeling this is what is driving the metals market right now. fundamentals brought it up to the point where it is now. all the worries and concerns are already built into the price. what is going on now is human behavior being what it is. not fundamentals. >>
I don't understand why you consider a price of $20/oz. so outrageous. On ebay, here's one of many similar auctions, this time for 4 100 oz. Englehard bars for nearly $8000, or just under $20/oz. So what am I missing?
<< <i>since i do not own a couple 1000 ounces of silver at the moment i should not be able to discuss it?
Not at all, but since you insist on missing the point, perhaps I should have said that it's ludicrous for you to ridicule someone else's buying, holding or selling strategies if it doesn't match your own - you are most guilty of doing the very thing that you decry others doing.
>>
the only strategy i see is buying and holding with little to no discussion on when to let it go. That is my point and it seems valid based on what I read here. Calgold summarized it nicely.
You make my advice of having a plan when to sell and the discussion around it seem like an oddball suggestion.
You make my advice of having a plan when to sell and the discussion around it seem like an oddball suggestion.
Do you know what "churning" an account is? That's what is happening now with all financial assets - only instead of a crooked broker doing it, it is the whole government/banking system doing it.
And since you aren't near retirement age, it doesn't apply to you so you ignore it. And since you don't have significant savings/investments built up over years, you ignore it. And yet it affects you, more so than me or others here in the same situation as me. So be it.
Back to churning. Every u-turn that they make, they manage to fleece another bunch of long term savers/investors. With gold/silver, the only way that they can do that is through official confiscation. Otherwise, they can't get at it, and even if they try confiscation, it will only drive the reality underground.
It isn't a game. Having a "plan to sell" implies that you are rigid and myopic - and can't evaluate or navigate a fluid situation. You are terrific at nickel & diming for a few bucks on a spread between bulk silver and individual coins, as if you've only just discovered what a "spread" is. That type of detailed approach might be great for programming or troubleshooting circuitry, but it sucks for staying ahead in an investment scenario, when it takes years to make money and minutes to lose it.
Back to Weimar. Read an account of it. Both DURING and AFTER the hyperinflation, what happened? I think that you might be interested in who won, and who lost.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>You make my advice of having a plan when to sell and the discussion around it seem like an oddball suggestion.
Do you know what "churning" an account is? That's what is happening now with all financial assets - only instead of a crooked broker doing it, it is the whole government/banking system doing it.
And since you aren't near retirement age, it doesn't apply to you so you ignore it. And since you don't have significant savings/investments built up over years, you ignore it. And yet it affects you, more so than me or others here in the same situation as me. So be it.
Back to churning. Every u-turn that they make, they manage to fleece another bunch of long term savers/investors. With gold/silver, the only way that they can do that is through official confiscation. Otherwise, they can't get at it, and even if they try confiscation, it will only drive the reality underground.
It isn't a game. Having a "plan to sell" implies that you are rigid and myopic - and can't evaluate or navigate a fluid situation. You are terrific at nickel & diming for a few bucks on a spread between bulk silver and individual coins, as if you've only just discovered what a "spread" is. That type of detailed approach might be great for programming or troubleshooting circuitry, but it sucks for staying ahead in an investment scenario, when it takes years to make money and minutes to lose it.
Back to Weimar. Read an account of it. Both DURING and AFTER the hyperinflation, what happened? I think that you might be interested in who won, and who lost. >>
i am sorry. discussing things with you is near impossible. we go from churning, to crooked people out to get you, to confiscation, to telling me i do not know what spread means years ago, to some cheap shots at me, to weimar germany which is the gold bugs favorite example of hyper inflation, to who knows what is next.
Everyone who holds pms doesn't think that it's going to the Mooooon. And not having a rigid plan to dump their holdings doesn't make one a paranoid conspiracy nut. Calling someone "irrational" over a couple bucks discrepancy in the price of silver is pretty cheap, if ya ask me. That's much different than stating an opposing opinion.
Who's making the cheap shots?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Most of the major players I know in the metals game have a fairly large core position in metals, stocks, or both which won't be touched until much, much higher levels (ie $1200/$20, $1500/$25, etc.) are met. It's stupid to flip your core position for 5-10% and think you are accomplishing something "historic." What will be historic is making 10X on your core silver position 3-10 years down the road. It will far outweigh any flips you might have made on ebay.
I got sucked into the last gold move from $700 to $875 and gave up 15% of my core. In the end, I had to pay up to buy back in and pay taxes on the gains as well. I gave up 25% in gains by that short sightedness by not standing pat like I should have. A stupid move where I was out just before the biggest move in a long time came about. I'd like to know what fc's plan is on his few 1,000 ounces of silver? I don't see any plan being presented to us. In fact, why didn't he sell out at $14.50 and buy back in at near $12.20 like any flipper would have done. My silver position is stashed for years down the road. It's not for flipping until silver is much higher. I've only added to it, never sold. Started it back when silver coin was 3X face. But I do buy gold stocks to trade and was quite content with making 25% on my position this past week to lock in some profits. Though so far, no real dip that I would want to buy back into. But to those who were waiting for a bigger smackdown, they missed the 25% entirely.
.. anyone can juggle numbers and stats to make whatever they want to appear correct. you do this a lot. that is why i disregard them and go to the meat of your post. the meat of your posts states 15-16 bucks is your reckoning and that is what smaller bars go for. the rest is PURE bull crap you calculate to support it. and you did it again in the last post. throwing out numbers, stock movements, and etc... makes one sound smart... but not to me. You have a picture of what you want to see and you manipulate the numbers to fit your vision. Simple as that in my book. You see what you want to see. but i do not think you will ever understand my point of this. it is how you think. me on the other hand? gold and silver are being driven around by fear, greed, and irrational decision making. try to add those measurements into your juggled numbers you always talk about to support whatever case you are trying to make.
See, there you go again. You ignore all the real meat of a post which IS the STATS, and IS the CHARTS, and is the FUNDAMENTALS, and is the TECHNICALS.....only to settle on the insignifcant. Not all authors put the most compelling information in the first line of a reply, article, book, etc. In fact, you often have to read a large portion of the text to find the key items. One has to read, analyze, and interpret. If you don't understand what Gold/silver and Dow/gold, and other technicals are showing you, that's you're bad. These are not my twistings of information, but what they say. They are facts and they history. I don't juggle stats like the BLS does, I merely present what the facts are and let others here decide if they mean anything to them. The first major fact I saw was back in 2002. And that fact was the $100 TRILL in world wide notional derivatives of which JPM carried about 1/3 of them. That got me on to the gold train. Today those levels are many times higher and still remain facts.
Please show me examples of "stats" that I juggle, I'd like to see your analysis. One would think that if I'm making these things up as I go along or am misquoting articles, that other people would be calling me on it left and right. I've probably made over 10,000 posts here just on gold information with thousands of points of information. And I can't recall more than once or twice where someone pointed out that I misquoted data. I probably spend 50 hours a week reading and researching the markets, esp metals. If you find this information too boring or trite for your keen analytics then don't read it. But in the future, please call me immediately on any bogus information I put out. I'm not smart, just trying to learn as most are from these threads. But I'm 100X more informed financially than I was back in 2004 when we started the main gold thread. And next year I'll be more informed and sharper in my analytics than I am today. I can thank cohodk and others for pushing me along to want to know more. It was nice to make a pile of money in gold stocks this week because of all the PURE BS I read. Yeah, I had my fingers on the "buy" button at $885-$900 gold on Thursday. I had been waiting for over a week to find the right time to get back in. "PURE BS" has its advantages. It is CRITICAL to be able to support one's case with numbers and facts. I never try to put out just words that have no underlying support. If that's what you expect to see, then stick to listening to the FED, Treasury, and CNBC for your financial information. Having been in the math and engineering fields for 35 years necessitates that I see some type of hard proof or analysis behind a theory or conclusion. If it's stat juggling you want.....the BLS and BEA has more than plenty of data for your to go over.
Did it ever occur to you that people buying silver in eastern Europe may not be privvy to the same type of pricing you get here? Is ebay even an option over there? What do Zimbabweans pay for their metals? Do you think they have pawn shops or coin dealers selling metals for 5-10% over spot? Does Europe have a VAT on silver? Before you shoot the messenger (ie 1jester) maybe a little analysis is in order.
Oh, and I'll be waiting for your presentatin and analysis of my first set of "juggled" numbers. If you disregard the "numbers" and analysis I can only guess what is going on in your mind to determine when to buy and sell anything. I would imagine it must be purely greed and fear.....much the way the majority views things. Now that I realize that the fc mind disregards all numbers, facts, and analysis, and then focuses on the first thing that catches his eye, I can better deal with the methodolgy of his replies.
<< <i>I got sucked into the last gold move from $700 to $875 and gave up 15% of my core. In the end, I had to pay up to buy back in and pay taxes on the gains as well. I gave up 25% in gains by that short sightedness by not standing pat like I should have. A stupid move in order to satisfy the fc animal desire to show a "profit." >>
Nonsense. You made a very nice profit. And you had the opportunity to get back into the market at a future date when you saw an opportunity for new gains. Gold is a commodity and there are profits to be made trading it. Right now the price is very volatile. I made some money last year selling my position. I missed some subsequent opportunities to get in before other run ups, but I also missed being long during some periods of price decline. So what.
It's hardly nonsense. It's about keeping the most for yourself for the years down the road when you need it more. Giving away a huge hunk in taxes (a minimum of 28% to anyone here, and possibly more for those self-employed) is not my idea of compounding gains. Nor is missing 25% of the move on top of that. Sometimes it is best to sit and hold when you bought right. Are you suggesting that anyone who bought 1 ounce gold coins for $350 each back in 2002 sell them all off now and book those profits while they can? It seems to me that is what you recommend. What if they did that and gold runs up to $1200? Do you think they'll buy back in at 1200, or $1100, or $1000? Of course they won't. What if it gold proceeds to $2000, will they buy back in $1800 or $1500? Nope. They are basically out for good. If they turn that into say silver, then I can understand the logic. If they are selling their core and turning it back into paper assets, I don't understand it.
The bottom line is those people with the $350 eagles should carry most of that core with them for the day when gold is multiples of today's price (or silver eagles for that matter). This is what jmski52 and others are getting at. Go ahead and take your profit now. Maybe you can reinvest it in stocks or bonds and see those fall another 20-40%. Or maybe just leave it in cash and see that fall another 30-40%. Seems to me, those people have it in the right place right now. Why give up 28% in taxes today, and then miss out on the biggest % of appreciation that is yet to come? Does anyone really believe that we just about passed the hardest times and things will rosy up in the fall and then start the new boom of the next 20 years? For non-analysts the dow/gold chart has shown the obvious results of FED monetary cycles of the past 95 years and each time it goes way up, then goes way down. If you don't believe in such a chart then what are your basic facts as to what course the major markets will follow over the next few years? Dumb luck? Greed? Fear? Ouija board? Dart board? The Wall Street Journal? CNBC? Cramer? Krudlowe? .........me, I think I'll stick with the Dow/gold chart and other PURE BS analytics such as CB gold inventories, oil production, monetary supplies, CPI's and GDP's adjusted to 1980 methods, cup n'handles, head and shoulders, etc. Just the facts m'aam.
<< <i>Are you suggesting that anyone who bought 1 ounce gold coins for $350 each back in 2002 sell them all off now and book those profits while they can? It seems to me that is what you recommend. What if they did that and gold runs up to $1200? Do you think they'll buy back in at 1200, or $1100, or $1000? Of course they won't. What if it gold proceeds to $2000, will they buy back in $1800 or $1500? Nope. They are basically out for good. If they turn that into say silver, then I can understand the logic. If they are selling their core and turning it back into paper assets, I don't understand it. >>
What if gold goes down to $800? Or $750? You sold when you thought that the upside was less certain than the downside risk, then you changed your outlook when new facts came into play or when your analysis changed. Why can’t those who bought at $350 do the same thing.
<< <i>Price is set by demand and supply. At any moment in time, the price is correct. I don't tell the market what the price "should be." The market talks and I listen. The should price is like arguing with the ocean when the tide is coming in, or telling the Earth to stop spinning on its axis just because. Anyone who trades on "shoulds" is either a great genius or going to go broke soon. I ain't the first, and I don't want to be the second. The market can stay irrational longer than a trader can stay solvent. >>
In the long run you're right but not in the short term.
The situation in silver is wholly unprecedented in human history and might never again be repeated. If even a significant minority of those who think they are long silver (demand) would actually go out and purchase silver the price would simply explode. Most of these longs believe their investment is safe because the shorters will have to pay off but the shorts are in so far over their heads that there will be nothing but a gurgling noise.
The price of silver is a fraction of what it should and will be. Many people here will live to see the day that silver is priced more than gold but this pro- bably won't happen until gold has a couple bad decades and this is not go- ing to be in the near future that it starts.
The problem with where silver should be is NOT the shorts, it's inertia. The shorts are just exascerbating the the status quo. It might not move much yet anyway but the shorts are a (water soluable glue holding it in place.
Here is one thing that confuses me about the silver short idea. (first correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the theory is that the price of silver has been kept low by shorting, and at some point the shorts will get squeezed trying to cover, and the price will explode).
What I find confusing about this -- if I were at a well capitalized investment bank (eg - Goldman 1 year ago!), don't I have the resources to crush the shorts? Maybe it takes several banks at the same time, but even this should happen without collusion. If silver is so underpriced, Goldman should be able to absolutely crush the shorts, and make a tremendous gain. Such a gain would seem to far exceed money earned via the shorting strategy.
<< <i>all i can say is hope your pipe dreams of 1500, 2000, 2500, and up gold comes true for you. like i said, to the mooooooooon! >>
It seems that this was the mantra being repeated ad nauseum back when gold was under $300/oz a few years ago (just go back and read the first few thousand pages of the epic thread), and does that mean its present level of $1000 is imaginary, or a fluke? Or that it won't keep rising? I had many good chuckles at people who were calling us idiots back then and I still do.
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>all i can say is hope your pipe dreams of 1500, 2000, 2500, and up gold comes true for you. like i said, to the mooooooooon! >>
It seems that this was the mantra being repeated ad nauseum back when gold was under $300/oz a few years ago (just go back and read the first few thousand pages of the epic thread), and does that mean its present level of $1000 is imaginary, or a fluke? Or that it won't keep rising? I had many good chuckles at people who were calling us idiots back then and I still do.
>>
i was with you from the 400-500 range. it was fundamentals then. i just decided when it got to 900-1000 it was time to let it go and shift to something else. now, it is fear and greed driving the market. just look at the amazing swings taking place all in one day. look at how people are reacting.
when everyone wants gold i want out. when no one wants it.. i want in.
since when has the herd ever been right?
tech boom. nope. housing market. nope. it was always the early birds who profited when they said enough is enough and sold before the bust and when everyone thought it was a swell thing.
<< <i>i was with you from the 400-500 range. it was fundamentals then. i just decided when it got to 900-1000 it was time to let it go and shift to something else. now, it is fear and greed driving the market. just look at the amazing swings taking place all in one day. look at how people are reacting.
when everyone wants gold i want out. when no one wants it.. i want in.
since when has the herd ever been right?
tech boom. nope. housing market. nope. it was always the early birds who profited when they said enough is enough and sold before the bust and when everyone thought it was a swell thing. >>
The herd is always right for a while. You just have to be astute and observant. It is indeed the herd that makes the trends that you can profit off of.
For example, the real estate bubble here started in earnest in late 2003/ early 2004 and if you dumped all of your real estate by early 2006 you did alright. There was a solid 18 months or more to follow the herd and cash in.
If you get in when everyone else gets out, you might be waiting a while. If you got into gold in the early 80's after that bubble burst, you'd have waited out 25 years and still ended up with a loss after inflation.
It's not as simple as you say. It's about timing and reading and interpreting the data and events. If you're leading the herd, you'll do great. If you're at the back of the herd, you'll get killed.
The herd will properl PM's to some super high prices some time in the next few years. The key will be to identify when ride is over or about to end before everyone else does.
when everyone wants gold i want out. when no one wants it.. i want in.
So how much gold (or gold stocks) did you buy at $700/oz when it cratered into mid-November when "no one" wanted it and pessimism and fear for PM's was at a peak?
<< <i>when everyone wants gold i want out. when no one wants it.. i want in.
So how much gold (or gold stocks) did you buy at $700/oz when it cratered into mid-November when "no one" wanted it and pessimism and fear for PM's was at a peak?
roadrunner >>
i should have stated PMs. that is my mistake. i was playing with silver at that time. i think my intentions of the statement are clear though. silver and gold often go hand in hand.
i sold almost all my half eagles before that down turn if i remember right. i went through a 1000+ ounces of silver during that time mostly in maples.
it was all sold for more then what people are getting right now even with silver being higher. 17-21 an ounce.
silver was a smart play at the time so i went with it. buy a round at 12 and sell it for 17-18 easy if not more. gold could not compete with that type of percentage profit.
the amounts may not seem like a lot to the high rollers here.. but for me it was a lot of money.
I have no faith in it, so it's tough to believe my thoughts matter. Silver is like everything there is a market for. Silver is priced right where it should be.
Comments
1000 ounces of silver at the moment i should not be able to discuss it?
Not at all, but since you insist on missing the point, perhaps I should have said that it's ludicrous for you to ridicule someone else's buying, holding or selling strategies if it doesn't match your own - you are most guilty of doing the very thing that you decry others doing.
This is a valid point and is why so many PM bugs never make money--they ride the metals up and then right back down without ever cashing in to make a profit.
You are incorrect. I've made alot of money in metals, I don't hold them all the time, and I sell them when I choose. You are generalizing and provide no facts.
But then again the gold/silver bugs don't want to make money since they believe money is worthless.
Again, only taunting - no facts. There is no basis for your saying that pm guys don't want to make money. OTOH, there's no reason to be throwing it down a rathole, either. Money isn't worthless - it's fiat. Once you know what you're dealing with, you are better able to manage it, ya think?
As far as the question raised by the original poster, I still don't understand why silver isn't $7.50 or less.
You discount what the Congress, the Treasury and the Fed are doing, do you? Do so at your own peril. CalGold, I don't know whether or not you are simply playing "devil's advocate" or what - but if you really believe most of the things you're saying, I would expect you to be in stocks and T-Bills. Are you?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>
I'm being absolutely serious and the name of the game is supply and demand and demand is much higher than supply in some places. So call me irrational if you wish, but I'd rather have it at those prices than in a few months at $50/oz and a couple years at $100-$500/oz.
this is the year 2009. buying your silver from a shark is not rational behavior.
you are online. you have google. there is really no excuse for not buying it
from a trusted source who sells near or at least close to spot.
i have a feeling this is what is driving the metals market right now. fundamentals
brought it up to the point where it is now. all the worries and concerns are already
built into the price. what is going on now is human behavior being what it is. not
fundamentals. >>
I don't understand why you consider a price of $20/oz. so outrageous. On ebay, here's one of many similar auctions, this time for 4 100 oz. Englehard bars for nearly $8000, or just under $20/oz. So what am I missing?
Is this too high a price to pay for silver?
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
I'm being absolutely serious and the name of the game is supply and demand and demand is much higher than supply in some places. So call me irrational if you wish, but I'd rather have it at those prices than in a few months at $50/oz and a couple years at $100-$500/oz.
this is the year 2009. buying your silver from a shark is not rational behavior.
you are online. you have google. there is really no excuse for not buying it
from a trusted source who sells near or at least close to spot.
i have a feeling this is what is driving the metals market right now. fundamentals
brought it up to the point where it is now. all the worries and concerns are already
built into the price. what is going on now is human behavior being what it is. not
fundamentals. >>
I don't understand why you consider a price of $20/oz. so outrageous. On ebay, here's one of many similar auctions, this time for 4 100 oz. Englehard bars for nearly $8000, or just under $20/oz. So what am I missing?
Is this too high a price to pay for silver?
yes it is. that is about ~6000 worth of silver to me. 400 ounces.
<< <i>since i do not own a couple
1000 ounces of silver at the moment i should not be able to discuss it?
Not at all, but since you insist on missing the point, perhaps I should have said that it's ludicrous for you to ridicule someone else's buying, holding or selling strategies if it doesn't match your own - you are most guilty of doing the very thing that you decry others doing.
>>
the only strategy i see is buying and holding with little to no discussion
on when to let it go. That is my point and it seems valid based on
what I read here. Calgold summarized it nicely.
You make my advice of having a plan when to sell and the discussion around
it seem like an oddball suggestion.
it seem like an oddball suggestion.
Do you know what "churning" an account is? That's what is happening now with all financial assets - only instead of a crooked broker doing it, it is the whole government/banking system doing it.
And since you aren't near retirement age, it doesn't apply to you so you ignore it. And since you don't have significant savings/investments built up over years, you ignore it. And yet it affects you, more so than me or others here in the same situation as me. So be it.
Back to churning. Every u-turn that they make, they manage to fleece another bunch of long term savers/investors. With gold/silver, the only way that they can do that is through official confiscation. Otherwise, they can't get at it, and even if they try confiscation, it will only drive the reality underground.
It isn't a game. Having a "plan to sell" implies that you are rigid and myopic - and can't evaluate or navigate a fluid situation. You are terrific at nickel & diming for a few bucks on a spread between bulk silver and individual coins, as if you've only just discovered what a "spread" is. That type of detailed approach might be great for programming or troubleshooting circuitry, but it sucks for staying ahead in an investment scenario, when it takes years to make money and minutes to lose it.
Back to Weimar. Read an account of it. Both DURING and AFTER the hyperinflation, what happened? I think that you might be interested in who won, and who lost.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>You make my advice of having a plan when to sell and the discussion around
it seem like an oddball suggestion.
Do you know what "churning" an account is? That's what is happening now with all financial assets - only instead of a crooked broker doing it, it is the whole government/banking system doing it.
And since you aren't near retirement age, it doesn't apply to you so you ignore it. And since you don't have significant savings/investments built up over years, you ignore it. And yet it affects you, more so than me or others here in the same situation as me. So be it.
Back to churning. Every u-turn that they make, they manage to fleece another bunch of long term savers/investors. With gold/silver, the only way that they can do that is through official confiscation. Otherwise, they can't get at it, and even if they try confiscation, it will only drive the reality underground.
It isn't a game. Having a "plan to sell" implies that you are rigid and myopic - and can't evaluate or navigate a fluid situation. You are terrific at nickel & diming for a few bucks on a spread between bulk silver and individual coins, as if you've only just discovered what a "spread" is. That type of detailed approach might be great for programming or troubleshooting circuitry, but it sucks for staying ahead in an investment scenario, when it takes years to make money and minutes to lose it.
Back to Weimar. Read an account of it. Both DURING and AFTER the hyperinflation, what happened? I think that you might be interested in who won, and who lost. >>
i am sorry. discussing things with you is near impossible.
we go from churning, to crooked people out to get you, to confiscation,
to telling me i do not know what spread means years ago, to some cheap shots
at me, to weimar germany which is the gold bugs favorite example of
hyper inflation, to who knows what is next.
i surrender.
Who's making the cheap shots?
I knew it would happen.
I got sucked into the last gold move from $700 to $875 and gave up 15% of my core. In the end, I had to pay up to buy back in and pay taxes on the gains as well. I gave up 25% in gains by that short sightedness by not standing pat like I should have. A stupid move where I was out just before the biggest move in a long time came about. I'd like to know what fc's plan is on his few 1,000 ounces of silver? I don't see any plan being presented to us. In fact, why didn't he sell out at $14.50 and buy back in at near $12.20 like any flipper would have done. My silver position is stashed for years down the road. It's not for flipping until silver is much higher. I've only added to it, never sold. Started it back when silver coin was 3X face. But I do buy gold stocks to trade and was quite content with making 25% on my position this past week to lock in some profits. Though so far, no real dip that I would want to buy back into. But to those who were waiting for a bigger smackdown, they missed the 25% entirely.
.. anyone can juggle numbers and stats to make whatever they want to appear correct. you do this a lot. that is why i disregard them and go to the meat of your post. the meat of your posts states 15-16 bucks is your reckoning and that is what smaller bars go for. the rest is PURE bull crap you calculate to support it. and you did it again in the last post. throwing out numbers, stock movements, and etc... makes one sound smart... but not to me. You have a picture of what you want to see and you manipulate the numbers to fit your vision. Simple as that in my book. You see what you want to see. but i do not think you will ever understand my point of this. it is how you think. me on the other hand? gold and silver are being driven around by fear, greed, and irrational decision making. try to add those measurements into your juggled numbers you always talk about to support whatever case you are trying to make.
See, there you go again. You ignore all the real meat of a post which IS the STATS, and IS the CHARTS, and is the FUNDAMENTALS, and is the TECHNICALS.....only to settle on the insignifcant. Not all authors put the most compelling information in the first line of a reply, article, book, etc. In fact, you often have to read a large portion of the text to find the key items. One has to read, analyze, and interpret. If you don't understand what Gold/silver and Dow/gold, and other technicals are showing you, that's you're bad. These are not my twistings of information, but what they say. They are facts and they history. I don't juggle stats like the BLS does, I merely present what the facts are and let others here decide if they mean anything to them. The first major fact I saw was back in 2002. And that fact was the $100 TRILL in world wide notional derivatives of which JPM carried about 1/3 of them. That got me on to the gold train. Today those levels are many times higher and still remain facts.
Please show me examples of "stats" that I juggle, I'd like to see your analysis. One would think that if I'm making these things up as I go along or am misquoting articles, that other people would be calling me on it left and right. I've probably made over 10,000 posts here just on gold information with thousands of points of information. And I can't recall more than once or twice where someone pointed out that I misquoted data. I probably spend 50 hours a week reading and researching the markets, esp metals. If you find this information too boring or trite for your keen analytics then don't read it. But in the future, please call me immediately on any bogus information I put out. I'm not smart, just trying to learn as most are from these threads. But I'm 100X more informed financially than I was back in 2004 when we started the main gold thread. And next year I'll be more informed and sharper in my analytics than I am today. I can thank cohodk and others for pushing me along to want to know more. It was nice to make a pile of money in gold stocks this week because of all the PURE BS I read. Yeah, I had my fingers on the "buy" button at $885-$900 gold on Thursday. I had been waiting for over a week to find the right time to get back in. "PURE BS" has its advantages. It is CRITICAL to be able to support one's case with numbers and facts. I never try to put out just words that have no underlying support. If that's what you expect to see, then stick to listening to the FED, Treasury, and CNBC for your financial information. Having been in the math and engineering fields for 35 years necessitates that I see some type of hard proof or analysis behind a theory or conclusion. If it's stat juggling you want.....the BLS and BEA has more than plenty of data for your to go over.
Did it ever occur to you that people buying silver in eastern Europe may not be privvy to the same type of pricing you get here? Is ebay even an option over there? What do Zimbabweans pay for their metals? Do you think they have pawn shops or coin dealers selling metals for 5-10% over spot? Does Europe have a VAT on silver?
Before you shoot the messenger (ie 1jester) maybe a little analysis is in order.
Oh, and I'll be waiting for your presentatin and analysis of my first set of "juggled" numbers. If you disregard the "numbers" and analysis I can only guess what is going on in your mind to determine when to buy and sell anything. I would imagine it must be purely greed and fear.....much the way the majority views things. Now that I realize that the fc mind disregards all numbers, facts, and analysis, and then focuses on the first thing that catches his eye, I can better deal with the methodolgy of his replies.
roadrunner
<< <i>I got sucked into the last gold move from $700 to $875 and gave up 15% of my core. In the end, I had to pay up to buy back in and pay taxes on the gains as well. I gave up 25% in gains by that short sightedness by not standing pat like I should have. A stupid move in order to satisfy the fc animal desire to show a "profit." >>
Nonsense. You made a very nice profit. And you had the opportunity to get back into the market at a future date when you saw an opportunity for new gains. Gold is a commodity and there are profits to be made trading it. Right now the price is very volatile. I made some money last year selling my position. I missed some subsequent opportunities to get in before other run ups, but I also missed being long during some periods of price decline. So what.
CG
Postage I'll pay, but customs? No, that is just another tax and I aint paying no more taxes.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The bottom line is those people with the $350 eagles should carry most of that core with them for the day when gold is multiples of today's price (or silver eagles for that matter). This is what jmski52 and others are getting at. Go ahead and take your profit now. Maybe you can reinvest it in stocks or bonds and see those fall another 20-40%. Or maybe just leave it in cash and see that fall another 30-40%. Seems to me, those people have it in the right place right now. Why give up 28% in taxes today, and then miss out on the biggest % of appreciation that is yet to come? Does anyone really believe that we just about passed the hardest times and things will rosy up in the fall and then start the new boom of the next 20 years? For non-analysts the dow/gold chart has shown the obvious results of FED monetary cycles of the past 95 years and each time it goes way up, then goes way down. If you don't believe in such a chart then what are your basic facts as to what course the major markets will follow over the next few years? Dumb luck? Greed? Fear? Ouija board? Dart board? The Wall Street Journal? CNBC? Cramer? Krudlowe? .........me, I think I'll stick with the Dow/gold chart and other PURE BS analytics such as CB gold inventories, oil production, monetary supplies, CPI's and GDP's adjusted to 1980 methods, cup n'handles, head and shoulders, etc. Just the facts m'aam.
roadrunner
gold comes true for you. like i said, to the mooooooooon!
$1,000 - $350 = $650 x .50 effective tax rate = $325 net "profit" big deal!
$1,500 - $350 = $1,150 x .5- effective tax rate = $575 net "profit" so what?
take that $575 and make another $575 and pay taxes on that
= churning
churn, churn, churn
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that they aren't out to get you.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Are you suggesting that anyone who bought 1 ounce gold coins for $350 each back in 2002 sell them all off now and book those profits while they can? It seems to me that is what you recommend. What if they did that and gold runs up to $1200? Do you think they'll buy back in at 1200, or $1100, or $1000? Of course they won't. What if it gold proceeds to $2000, will they buy back in $1800 or $1500? Nope. They are basically out for good. If they turn that into say silver, then I can understand the logic. If they are selling their core and turning it back into paper assets, I don't understand it. >>
What if gold goes down to $800? Or $750? You sold when you thought that the upside was less certain than the downside risk, then you changed your outlook when new facts came into play or when your analysis changed. Why can’t those who bought at $350 do the same thing.
CG
<< <i>Price is set by demand and supply. At any moment in time, the price is correct. I don't tell the market what the price "should be." The market talks and I listen. The should price is like arguing with the ocean when the tide is coming in, or telling the Earth to stop spinning on its axis just because. Anyone who trades on "shoulds" is either a great genius or going to go broke soon. I ain't the first, and I don't want to be the second. The market can stay irrational longer than a trader can stay solvent. >>
In the long run you're right but not in the short term.
The situation in silver is wholly unprecedented in human history and might
never again be repeated. If even a significant minority of those who think
they are long silver (demand) would actually go out and purchase silver the
price would simply explode. Most of these longs believe their investment is
safe because the shorters will have to pay off but the shorts are in so far
over their heads that there will be nothing but a gurgling noise.
The price of silver is a fraction of what it should and will be. Many people
here will live to see the day that silver is priced more than gold but this pro-
bably won't happen until gold has a couple bad decades and this is not go-
ing to be in the near future that it starts.
The problem with where silver should be is NOT the shorts, it's inertia. The
shorts are just exascerbating the the status quo. It might not move much
yet anyway but the shorts are a (water soluable
Here is one thing that confuses me about the silver short idea. (first correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the theory is that the price of silver has been kept low by shorting, and at some point the shorts will get squeezed trying to cover, and the price will explode).
What I find confusing about this -- if I were at a well capitalized investment bank (eg - Goldman 1 year ago!), don't I have the resources to crush the shorts? Maybe it takes several banks at the same time, but even this should happen without collusion. If silver is so underpriced, Goldman should be able to absolutely crush the shorts, and make a tremendous gain. Such a gain would seem to far exceed money earned via the shorting strategy.
<< <i>all i can say is hope your pipe dreams of 1500, 2000, 2500, and up
gold comes true for you. like i said, to the mooooooooon! >>
It seems that this was the mantra being repeated ad nauseum back when gold was under $300/oz a few years ago (just go back and read the first few thousand pages of the epic thread), and does that mean its present level of $1000 is imaginary, or a fluke? Or that it won't keep rising? I had many good chuckles at people who were calling us idiots back then and I still do.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>
<< <i>all i can say is hope your pipe dreams of 1500, 2000, 2500, and up
gold comes true for you. like i said, to the mooooooooon! >>
It seems that this was the mantra being repeated ad nauseum back when gold was under $300/oz a few years ago (just go back and read the first few thousand pages of the epic thread), and does that mean its present level of $1000 is imaginary, or a fluke? Or that it won't keep rising? I had many good chuckles at people who were calling us idiots back then and I still do.
i was with you from the 400-500 range. it was fundamentals then.
i just decided when it got to 900-1000 it was time to let it go and shift to something else. now, it is fear and greed driving the market.
just look at the amazing swings taking place all in one day. look at
how people are reacting.
when everyone wants gold i want out. when no one wants it.. i want in.
since when has the herd ever been right?
tech boom. nope.
housing market. nope.
it was always the early birds who profited when they said enough is
enough and sold before the bust and when everyone thought it was
a swell thing.
<< <i>i was with you from the 400-500 range. it was fundamentals then.
i just decided when it got to 900-1000 it was time to let it go and shift to something else. now, it is fear and greed driving the market.
just look at the amazing swings taking place all in one day. look at
how people are reacting.
when everyone wants gold i want out. when no one wants it.. i want in.
since when has the herd ever been right?
tech boom. nope.
housing market. nope.
it was always the early birds who profited when they said enough is
enough and sold before the bust and when everyone thought it was
a swell thing. >>
The herd is always right for a while. You just have to be astute and observant. It is indeed the herd that makes the trends that you can profit off of.
For example, the real estate bubble here started in earnest in late 2003/ early 2004 and if you dumped all of your real estate by early 2006 you did alright. There was a solid 18 months or more to follow the herd and cash in.
If you get in when everyone else gets out, you might be waiting a while. If you got into gold in the early 80's after that bubble burst, you'd have waited out 25 years and still ended up with a loss after inflation.
It's not as simple as you say. It's about timing and reading and interpreting the data and events. If you're leading the herd, you'll do great. If you're at the back of the herd, you'll get killed.
The herd will properl PM's to some super high prices some time in the next few years. The key will be to identify when ride is over or about to end before everyone else does.
The price of gold will go up when "the herd" embraces it. Would be unfortunate to sell just as "the herd" gets involved.
Why the gold price is not yet soaring
So how much gold (or gold stocks) did you buy at $700/oz when it cratered into mid-November when "no one" wanted it and pessimism and fear for PM's was at a peak?
roadrunner
<< <i>when everyone wants gold i want out. when no one wants it.. i want in.
So how much gold (or gold stocks) did you buy at $700/oz when it cratered into mid-November when "no one" wanted it and pessimism and fear for PM's was at a peak?
roadrunner >>
i should have stated PMs. that is my mistake. i was playing with silver at that time.
i think my intentions of the statement are clear though. silver and gold often go hand in hand.
i sold almost all my half eagles before that down turn if i remember right.
i went through a 1000+ ounces of silver during that time mostly in maples.
it was all sold for more then what people are getting right now even with
silver being higher. 17-21 an ounce.
silver was a smart play at the time so i went with it.
buy a round at 12 and sell it for 17-18 easy if not more. gold could not compete with that type of percentage
profit.
the amounts may not seem like a lot to the high rollers here.. but for me it was a lot of money.