so, this is a bull market for gold?

MoneyLA

funny how this bull market acts, or am I not getting the correct prices?

COINB0Y

Alan, I'm thinking correction.

Dave Landry is puting out a short on GDX @ $30.50, target = $25.50

MoneyLA

that chart is shouting "short me," because the right shoulder of the reverse head and shoulders pattern has been broken.

COINB0Y

Yup, + look at the 2 Gaps that need filing @ Dec. 8th & 10th.

fc

the bull was the last 5 years to me. this is all anti climatic. the smart
players here were positioned years ago and will reap the rewards
when their time comes to cash out.

gold going up a few hundred more dollars just sweetens things for
the longs who have waited patiently...

the newbs buying now will pray to make a few bucks.

but my opinion differs greatly from most here who are thinking much
bigger. i keep eyeing the stock market, patiently waiting for it to settle
down, so I can step in.

Interesting how the drug companies decided to merge lately.
Also interesting when Buffet starts rambling on about how bad it is.
Good times. When he starts telling people we are in bad shape the
time to buy is near. You just know he is picking and choosing stocks
right now gleefully happy to get them at such low prices. He will not
show his hand until he is done.

MoneyLA

I cashed out months ago at 945 after a long haul of holding gold and about tripling my money. I said gold had a rally failure at 1000, nothing is swaying me... despite what the "bulls" say here.

57loaded

short term no

long term i think there is a long way to go for the

ProofCollection

Still a correction unless $890 fails to hold up. We have a nice patter of breakout and then a re-test. For the bull run to continue, we need to retest the last breakout ($890).

At $1000, gold was overbought. Gold is pretty much oversold right now, and ready to take off again.

cohodk

<< <i>Alan, I'm thinking correction.

Dave Landry is puting out a short on GDX @ $30.50, target = $25.50

>>




I bot puts on GDX yesterday at 31.50. Covered at 29.60. I do think it has a good chance for at least 25, but I trade fast and never overlook a bird in the hand.

ebaytrader

<< <i>so, this is a bull market for gold? >>



If Ben's comments this a.m. carry any weight then you can stick a fork into the royal metals 'cause they're done.

ProofCollection

<< <i>If Ben's comments this a.m. carry any weight then you can stick a fork into the royal metals 'cause they're done. >>



They don't carry any weight.

The commercial RE bubble has yet to really pop, and there is no real mechanism to do anything to improve GDP.

There way out of the rec/depr-ession is to make sure everyone has a good job. There are no good measures to make sure or help everyone to be employed. Building bridges and highways isn't going to cut it.

Norseman88

Same old tired arguments every time PM's take a breather. Of course when there's a rally you guys are either invisible or say this rally will be short lived. I am not a "Goldbug" however I see what the fed, our government and governments around the world are doing to their fiat currencies and view an investment in PM's as an insurance policy in case the $hit hit's the fan.
Go ahead and belittle me all you want but maybe you can come up with some new material because this I told you so attitude is getting old.

Norseman88

<< <i>I cashed out months ago at 945 after a long haul of holding gold and about tripling my money. I said gold had a rally failure at 1000, nothing is swaying me... despite what the "bulls" say here. >>



Of course you did and I'm sure you sold all your stocks when the Dow was at 14,000 too. As smart as you claim you are I'm surprised you don't run your own hedge fund or put out an monthly investment letter.

streeter

I still maintain there are two conventional ways out of this mess---tax and/or inflate.

Devalue the buck would be a shock but it may have to happen. This gold market will go away when the FED starts playing with interest rates and that seems a way down the line. Until then, gold will be bought faster than it can be mined.

Yesterdays WSJ article starts to ID some of the new players entering this market.

Principles with any kind of savings---need to buy some.
Principles with a lot of savings --need to buy some.

3.9 TRILLION dollars sitting on the sidelines -earning ZIP- and SOME of that is going to go to PM's for insurance.

streeter

An old investment strategy ----NEVER buy unless 'blood' is running in the streets.

It seems that many(including me) are seeing this market just do a crash dive. Was it Gaetner? who just said...'a couple of the BIG banks are 'dead men walking'----

Why are they talking this economy down? Stocks seem to be below asset value in some cases and seem to be ripe for picking.

ProofCollection

<< <i>Why are they talking this economy down? Stocks seem to be below asset value in some cases and seem to be ripe for picking. >>



I don't think you've seen anything yet. Be patient.

roadrunner

It figures that after gold has been retracing for 15 trading sessions, we finally hear from MoneyLA and Ebaytrader, to tell us what was happening. But if they had bothered to stop buy days ago they would have realized that a correction to $880-$890 was already being called for by several of us. MoneyLA, you have seen a gold correction before haven't you? I think we've had dozens of them since 2002. Right now we're back at the 38% fib level. Maybe we'll see 50% too since some of the miners have already hit that. The bulk of the miners are at the 38% fib level. Barrick took the biggest hit so far and has retraced 72%.

Today I started buying back some of miners at 50-70% discounts (GSS and ABX). I suspect ABX will go down a bit further to fill a gap at 25 though. Despite the 38% drop in gold and most miners, generic gold has only fallen back 5-7%, fancy that! I've been standing pat on my generic gold positions. Something about that physical gold! I don't suspect we'll see them falling back much unless gold pentrates $850 or even $800. Then it could cascade as generic gold tends to be late to the party on the way up and late to the funerial on the way down. In this last move up, most generic gold hadn't even budged until early February when gold was already at $920....then it ignited....gaining 30-50% on most 62-65 issues while gold moved up only 17% since January.

Coinboy, the gap filling theory, how bullet-proof is it? Notice Kinross (KGC) has a big gap at 13.6-14.4 to fill which I believe it will tomorrow. Yet 40% lower is a gap at 8.6 which I don't believe it could ever fill as that's an 84% retracement back to the first week that miners started moving up. Comments?

The miners turning back up should give a clue as to when gold will stabilize. They lead the way up and the way down already. Barrick, Kinross, Newmont and other heavyweights actually topped out weeks before gold did and we're just sort of oscillating near their peaks waiting for the take down. They've taken the largest poundings as a rule.

roadrunner

ProofCollection

<< <i>Coinboy, the gap filling theory, how bullet-proof is it? Notice Kinross (KGC) has a big gap at 13.6-14.4 to fill which I believe it will tomorrow. Yet 40% lower is a gap at 8.6 which I don't believe it could ever fill as that's an 84% retracement back to the first week that miners started moving up. Comments? >>



I don't believe the gap fill theory (as applied to gold) as gold trades about 22 hrs/day, yet Coinboy uses GLD (ETF) charts that only trades 6.5 hours. For most of the off-hours gold trading volume is low, and gaps can and do develop... but I'm not sure that the gap theory is going to quite apply in this situation.




<< <i>The miners turning back up should give a clue as to when gold will stabilize. They lead the way up and the way down already. Barrick, Kinross, Newmont and other heavyweights actually topped out weeks before gold did and we're just sort of oscillating near their peaks waiting for the take down. They've taken the largest poundings as a rule. >>



RR, what do you think of Yamana?

jmski52

The Dow closed up 379 today. I'd better dump all of my metals tomorrow morning asap for whatever I can sell them for, right?

Social Security will still have it's promised value, right? If it doesn't, and if precious metals crash, at least the new socialist government will make sure that I am safe, clothed, housed and fed even if I lose everything else, right? They won't throw me out of my house if I can't pay my mortgage, right?

Hey, I have the perfect strategy for our times. All in gold, silver and platinum. If I win, I am home free. If I lose, the government will let me live free just the way I am used to living.

Sweet deal, huh?

ProofCollection

<< <i>Hey, I have the perfect strategy for our times. All in gold, silver and platinum. If I win, I am home free. If I lose, the government will let me live free just the way I am used to living.

Sweet deal, huh? >>



That's a good way to put it. Regardless, I don't see my PM portfoilio ever losing as much as my 401k did this year.

roadrunner

RR, what do you think of Yamana?

Yamana (AUY) was the poster child for all things good gold during the 2002-2008 run-up. It went to $19 from nearly nothing. Everyone helped push it up. And it was the favorite whipping boy of the shorts on the way down and tanked to just under $4 if I recall right. Peaked this last cycle at just over $9....now back in the mid-$7's and probably a decent buy at 6.5-7.1. It already hit the 38% retrace at 7.1 and it might not go much lower. I will buy it tomorrow if I can get it in the 6's and don't sense a washout looming for days longer. A few of the Gann and cyclical timers I follow felt gold would bottom this week while the stock market would "panic." Not sure what the panic meant, but a vigorous rally up would be equivalent imo.

Yamana is a solid, unhedged, lower cost producing intermediate with growth potential for several years. They are also a potential take-over target for any one of the bigger miners. AUY could also take over some smaller miners as well. A Canadian based mining firm with most of their projects in Latin America. While that's not as stable as Canada, US or Australia, but imo better than Russia, Turkey, South Africa, China where national takeovers or permits being rejected are becoming more common. I'd place Yamana in the top half half of what I consider the better miners (AUY, IAG, KGC, NEM, BVN, EGO, GG, AEM, ABX).

roadrunner

COINB0Y

<< <i>I bot puts on GDX yesterday at 31.50. Covered at 29.60. I do think it has a good chance for at least 25, but I trade fast and never overlook a bird in the hand. >>



Nice scalp, cohodk!

I went short @ the open and still holding, I think this will touch close to the target.

roadrunner, I think we can account for most of this pull back to late-in Gold weenies (reading Newsweek....er..I mean ObamaWeek and USA Today) selling off to chase Bank stocks now that C says it made a 'profit'.

Long: TBT, GE (from just below $6 ;&gt, UGY. Short GDX

For the longs, I sold Out of the Money Calls and bought PUTs looking right at the close.

I know this is short term maybe a couple weeks, but maybe we can catch a bid and jump off at the right time ;>

Then, buy some Gold on BST ;>

COINB0Y

<< <i>Coinboy, the gap filling theory, how bullet-proof is it? Notice Kinross (KGC) has a big gap at 13.6-14.4 to fill which I believe it will tomorrow. Yet 40% lower is a gap at 8.6 which I don't believe it could ever fill as that's an 84% retracement back to the first week that miners started moving up. Comments? >>



They ALWAYS fill, its just a matter of when.

Perfect Examples, look at a long Term chart of KKD (real long) and CMG I remember saying there is no way in heck those two stocks with huge breakaway gaps would ever fill.

You know what? they did!

KGC, in my humble opinion is an easy one to fill @ $13.6-14.4 like you said.

Will it fill $8.60 on this run? Hard to say, maybe someone fill provide an intentional 'fat-finger'.

This weekly chart shows it is breaking support with a close under $14.51. At the very least there is till Friday to get back above $14.69.

That MACD is not looking good and volume still has 3 days to increase!

roadrunner

Nice little recovery today in gold and the miners as the panic driven selling of yesterday during the banker's "Stockers 300" is the buying back of today. You mean yesterday wasn't the official start of a many day/weeks rally in the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow?

roadrunner

cohodk

I think the market has a good chance to stabilize and creep higher over the coming weeks.

Earnings warnings will start in about 20 days. We will revist at that time.

Norseman88

I think the market is oversold but it doesn't matter what I think if people continue to panic. Of course the financials stocks appear to have been driven down to unrealistic levels but since there's no clarity on the balance sheets or future earnings what is their true value?
As for the energy stocks I think they will stage a large rally sometime in the next couple years as the price of oil rises to at least double what it currently is and I think that mining stocks will have a nice rally along with some quality blue chips.

cohodk

Pretty nice rip in GDX today.

Gotta be nimble.

roadrunner

Cohokd, pretty nice grab on GDX selling just as it hit the 38% retrace. It sort of caught me by surprise gaining another 6% right back again today. I don't think we're through looking at the $880-$890 level. Usually these pull backs have only lasted for 2 days. So by the end of the week I think we'll try again at for the recent low.

roadrunner

roadrunner

Well so much for the bearish view based on the decent to $890-$910. If the move from November was indeed 2 separate up legs, then there is a 3rd one waiting in the wings (typically considerably higher than the previous leg). If the move from November was just one long 5 legged move, then we are probably still in store for additional correcting. It seems to me that we still have an unfinished leg in the sequence that commenced in mid-January. Shorting GDX to $25 could turn out to be costly if gold continues to make a run at the upper $900's. Cohodk bailed on his short at just the right time. If MoneyLA wants to short it for a few weeks because of the rev. H&S be my guest. Bull markets have legs down as well as up. To dismiss a bull market because a corrective wave is in progress, is to miss the bull market.

Well so much for nibbling off more on the way down to $875-$880. Gold made 3 consecutive ramps back to $939 over the past few days. At each step it lingered like it didn't want to go away. It seems it has $950 on its mind (top of ye old trading range). Some of the miners already back up 20%. Didn't pick up much in $1-$10 generic gold either, didn't seem to be many sellers....even at $900/oz.

As far as gaps go, only very few of them got filled since they were closer to the 50% retrace. It was pointed out by one of the Kitco Forum guys that $Gold has a pair of "minute" gaps back in the upper $300's and lower $400's that trace all the way back to the 2003-2004 market. By that reasoning, gold is doomed to fail long term. I recommend bailing on your modern UHR's while you still can.

roadrunner

DoubleEagle59

it's still a very strong bull market for gold.

Gold will top out when one ounce of gold equals the DJIA.

ProofCollection

I'm seeing a run back to $990 or better by the end of the month, probably a bit sooner. Can't tell what will happen after that (yet), but I am sure that $990 is in the cards for the near future.

cohodk

Thats why I always say "Date 'em" not "Marry 'em". Dating is much more fun anyway.

MoneyLA

proof collection.... if gold tops out at 990, a very dangerous "triple top" will have formed. look out below (if there is a top at 990). if gold continues to rally beyond 990, then the bull will be back.

percyb

<< <i>

<< <i>Why are they talking this economy down? Stocks seem to be below asset value in some cases and seem to be ripe for picking. >>



I don't think you've seen anything yet. Be patient. >>



I concur. The upside is limited until earnings turn around, and they haven't yet stop falling. I'm with you. I think we head further down.. 5k on the down, maybe lower 4K perhaps.
Probably 400 on the SP 500. The risk is to the long side on equities. Gold, I think, must be played from the long side. I like to buy under 880 and silver under 12.

roadrunner

I don't see gold getting to $990 for the 3rd time and not taking out $1000 quite easily. What is more likely is hitting resistance up at the $953-$965 level and being propelled back for one more retest of the $880-$900 level. If gold heads anywhere near close to $1000 for the 3rd time it's up and over to run towards a new all-time high. Don't forget that gold hit it's 1033 high a year ago against a dollar that was 20% weaker than it is today (.71 vs. .89). What would gold do today against a dollar at 0.71? The same comparison can be made to the stock market. Where was it in March 2008 vs. March 2009.....and what has gold done?

The bull has never left. And in the current economic environment where people are looking for safe havens against depreciating currencies and bonds backed by cities, states, and govts in financial default, then that leaves only gold and other commodities. Should the dollar weaken further and not make a clean break above .90, it would only strengthen the set up for precious metals.

ProofCollection

I guess I would add my observations in the equities market. The equities market has turned... I don' think it's headed down any further in the short term. There is some optimism trickling into the markets... just listen to the market recaps for last week - definitely positive, although very slightly. Everyone was expecting the bear rally, and everyone had pretty much given up on that after the last couple of weeks. Now people are skeptical of a turnaround. The is the precise recipe for a rally.

On top of that, I think the dollar is at a high, and will be correcting back down. This will also boost the equities market, as well as gold.

After reconsidering the other market factors, I'm going to ammend my previous post to say that once it hits $990/1000, I see a run to a new high of $1170.

MoneyLA

proofcollection... I have to agree with what you said about a break out above 1000. If there is a break out, a 10% rally would be "easy" to count on. the "trick" would be a break out above 1000.

cohodk

Back in the GDX puts at 37.35

roadrunner

Puts on GDX seem to make sense after the 25% gain of the last few sessions. But the fact that gold, silver, and copper all sort of hung in there the last 2 days seems to show some exceptional strength for the moment. The market peaked at $968 and has fallen back to around $952. None of the metals want to leave the party yet, and in unison the general stock market fell on Friday. The dollar is re-gaining strength which should hurt gold but so far it really hasn't had much effect because people still seem to be in shock at what occured on Thursday with the dollar behaving as anything but a "safe haven." I think we'll see another move higher within 1-2 weeks which has been the typical corrective leg time frame of the past 4 months.

I don't see how we can avoid a new all-time high in gold by April-May time frame. Then MoneyLA can put his stamp of approval on the bull and join the party. It will be interesting to see at what levels he recommends that his listeners jump back in.

roadrunner

Norseman88

<< <i>I guess I would add my observations in the equities market. The equities market has turned... I don' think it's headed down any further in the short term. There is some optimism trickling into the markets... just listen to the market recaps for last week - definitely positive, although very slightly. Everyone was expecting the bear rally, and everyone had pretty much given up on that after the last couple of weeks. Now people are skeptical of a turnaround. The is the precise recipe for a rally.

On top of that, I think the dollar is at a high, and will be correcting back down. This will also boost the equities market, as well as gold.

After reconsidering the other market factors, I'm going to ammend my previous post to say that once it hits $990/1000, I see a run to a new high of $1170. >>



It would appear that some type of Obama rally has started which could take the dow up to 8,500-9,000 as people flee the dollar and the puny interest it pays. It would appear that oil related stocks along with financial and some of the beaten down blue chips have staged a decent rally, actually Wells Fargo which I'd been waiting to get into for a blowoff price similiar to BAC and C has had a huge rally off the low and I missed that opportunity. Gold, Silver and the PGM's have all staged nice rallies from their lows along with mining stocks which have rallied even more, the talk on CNBC lately has been not deflation but reinflation not that I put much stock in what any of them has to say.
It looks like people are starting to see the mountains of money being printed worldwide and in anticipation are moving their money from the "safe haven" of fiat currency into tangible assets but at some point perhaps early summer through fall the market will suffer a massive selloff as the "smart money" whipsaws things around. It would appear that long term "buy and hold" investing is dead as that mentality has been replaced with a bunch of daytraders, of course with the amount of fraud rampant on wall street today I can't really blame people.

cohodk

Puts closed with GDX at 35.98. Return was 9.3%. Sure beats money markets.