so, this is a bull market for gold?
MoneyLA
Posts: 1,825 ✭
funny how this bull market acts, or am I not getting the correct prices?
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Dave Landry is puting out a short on GDX @ $30.50, target = $25.50
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
players here were positioned years ago and will reap the rewards
when their time comes to cash out.
gold going up a few hundred more dollars just sweetens things for
the longs who have waited patiently...
the newbs buying now will pray to make a few bucks.
but my opinion differs greatly from most here who are thinking much
bigger. i keep eyeing the stock market, patiently waiting for it to settle
down, so I can step in.
Interesting how the drug companies decided to merge lately.
Also interesting when Buffet starts rambling on about how bad it is.
Good times. When he starts telling people we are in bad shape the
time to buy is near. You just know he is picking and choosing stocks
right now gleefully happy to get them at such low prices. He will not
show his hand until he is done.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
long term i think there is a long way to go for the
At $1000, gold was overbought. Gold is pretty much oversold right now, and ready to take off again.
<< <i>Alan, I'm thinking correction.
Dave Landry is puting out a short on GDX @ $30.50, target = $25.50
I bot puts on GDX yesterday at 31.50. Covered at 29.60. I do think it has a good chance for at least 25, but I trade fast and never overlook a bird in the hand.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>so, this is a bull market for gold? >>
If Ben's comments this a.m. carry any weight then you can stick a fork into the royal metals 'cause they're done.
<< <i>If Ben's comments this a.m. carry any weight then you can stick a fork into the royal metals 'cause they're done. >>
They don't carry any weight.
The commercial RE bubble has yet to really pop, and there is no real mechanism to do anything to improve GDP.
There way out of the rec/depr-ession is to make sure everyone has a good job. There are no good measures to make sure or help everyone to be employed. Building bridges and highways isn't going to cut it.
Go ahead and belittle me all you want but maybe you can come up with some new material because this I told you so attitude is getting old.
<< <i>I cashed out months ago at 945 after a long haul of holding gold and about tripling my money. I said gold had a rally failure at 1000, nothing is swaying me... despite what the "bulls" say here. >>
Of course you did and I'm sure you sold all your stocks when the Dow was at 14,000 too. As smart as you claim you are I'm surprised you don't run your own hedge fund or put out an monthly investment letter.
Devalue the buck would be a shock but it may have to happen. This gold market will go away when the FED starts playing with interest rates and that seems a way down the line. Until then, gold will be bought faster than it can be mined.
Yesterdays WSJ article starts to ID some of the new players entering this market.
Principles with any kind of savings---need to buy some.
Principles with a lot of savings --need to buy some.
3.9 TRILLION dollars sitting on the sidelines -earning ZIP- and SOME of that is going to go to PM's for insurance.
It seems that many(including me) are seeing this market just do a crash dive. Was it Gaetner? who just said...'a couple of the BIG banks are 'dead men walking'----
Why are they talking this economy down? Stocks seem to be below asset value in some cases and seem to be ripe for picking.
<< <i>Why are they talking this economy down? Stocks seem to be below asset value in some cases and seem to be ripe for picking. >>
I don't think you've seen anything yet. Be patient.
Today I started buying back some of miners at 50-70% discounts (GSS and ABX). I suspect ABX will go down a bit further to fill a gap at 25 though. Despite the 38% drop in gold and most miners, generic gold has only fallen back 5-7%, fancy that! I've been standing pat on my generic gold positions. Something about that physical gold! I don't suspect we'll see them falling back much unless gold pentrates $850 or even $800. Then it could cascade as generic gold tends to be late to the party on the way up and late to the funerial on the way down. In this last move up, most generic gold hadn't even budged until early February when gold was already at $920....then it ignited....gaining 30-50% on most 62-65 issues while gold moved up only 17% since January.
Coinboy, the gap filling theory, how bullet-proof is it? Notice Kinross (KGC) has a big gap at 13.6-14.4 to fill which I believe it will tomorrow. Yet 40% lower is a gap at 8.6 which I don't believe it could ever fill as that's an 84% retracement back to the first week that miners started moving up. Comments?
The miners turning back up should give a clue as to when gold will stabilize. They lead the way up and the way down already. Barrick, Kinross, Newmont and other heavyweights actually topped out weeks before gold did and we're just sort of oscillating near their peaks waiting for the take down. They've taken the largest poundings as a rule.
roadrunner
<< <i>Coinboy, the gap filling theory, how bullet-proof is it? Notice Kinross (KGC) has a big gap at 13.6-14.4 to fill which I believe it will tomorrow. Yet 40% lower is a gap at 8.6 which I don't believe it could ever fill as that's an 84% retracement back to the first week that miners started moving up. Comments? >>
I don't believe the gap fill theory (as applied to gold) as gold trades about 22 hrs/day, yet Coinboy uses GLD (ETF) charts that only trades 6.5 hours. For most of the off-hours gold trading volume is low, and gaps can and do develop... but I'm not sure that the gap theory is going to quite apply in this situation.
<< <i>The miners turning back up should give a clue as to when gold will stabilize. They lead the way up and the way down already. Barrick, Kinross, Newmont and other heavyweights actually topped out weeks before gold did and we're just sort of oscillating near their peaks waiting for the take down. They've taken the largest poundings as a rule. >>
RR, what do you think of Yamana?
Social Security will still have it's promised value, right? If it doesn't, and if precious metals crash, at least the new socialist government will make sure that I am safe, clothed, housed and fed even if I lose everything else, right? They won't throw me out of my house if I can't pay my mortgage, right?
Hey, I have the perfect strategy for our times. All in gold, silver and platinum. If I win, I am home free. If I lose, the government will let me live free just the way I am used to living.
Sweet deal, huh?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Hey, I have the perfect strategy for our times. All in gold, silver and platinum. If I win, I am home free. If I lose, the government will let me live free just the way I am used to living.
Sweet deal, huh? >>
That's a good way to put it. Regardless, I don't see my PM portfoilio ever losing as much as my 401k did this year.
Yamana (AUY) was the poster child for all things good gold during the 2002-2008 run-up. It went to $19 from nearly nothing. Everyone helped push it up. And it was the favorite whipping boy of the shorts on the way down and tanked to just under $4 if I recall right. Peaked this last cycle at just over $9....now back in the mid-$7's and probably a decent buy at 6.5-7.1. It already hit the 38% retrace at 7.1 and it might not go much lower. I will buy it tomorrow if I can get it in the 6's and don't sense a washout looming for days longer. A few of the Gann and cyclical timers I follow felt gold would bottom this week while the stock market would "panic." Not sure what the panic meant, but a vigorous rally up would be equivalent imo.
Yamana is a solid, unhedged, lower cost producing intermediate with growth potential for several years. They are also a potential take-over target for any one of the bigger miners. AUY could also take over some smaller miners as well. A Canadian based mining firm with most of their projects in Latin America. While that's not as stable as Canada, US or Australia, but imo better than Russia, Turkey, South Africa, China where national takeovers or permits being rejected are becoming more common. I'd place Yamana in the top half half of what I consider the better miners (AUY, IAG, KGC, NEM, BVN, EGO, GG, AEM, ABX).
roadrunner
<< <i>I bot puts on GDX yesterday at 31.50. Covered at 29.60. I do think it has a good chance for at least 25, but I trade fast and never overlook a bird in the hand. >>
Nice scalp, cohodk!
I went short @ the open and still holding, I think this will touch close to the target.
roadrunner, I think we can account for most of this pull back to late-in Gold weenies (reading Newsweek....er..I mean ObamaWeek and USA Today) selling off to chase Bank stocks now that C says it made a 'profit'.
Long: TBT, GE (from just below $6 ;>
For the longs, I sold Out of the Money Calls and bought PUTs looking right at the close.
I know this is short term maybe a couple weeks, but maybe we can catch a bid and jump off at the right time ;>
Then, buy some Gold on BST ;>
<< <i>Coinboy, the gap filling theory, how bullet-proof is it? Notice Kinross (KGC) has a big gap at 13.6-14.4 to fill which I believe it will tomorrow. Yet 40% lower is a gap at 8.6 which I don't believe it could ever fill as that's an 84% retracement back to the first week that miners started moving up. Comments? >>
They ALWAYS fill, its just a matter of when.
Perfect Examples, look at a long Term chart of KKD (real long) and CMG I remember saying there is no way in heck those two stocks with huge breakaway gaps would ever fill.
You know what? they did!
KGC, in my humble opinion is an easy one to fill @ $13.6-14.4 like you said.
Will it fill $8.60 on this run? Hard to say, maybe someone fill provide an intentional 'fat-finger'.
This weekly chart shows it is breaking support with a close under $14.51. At the very least there is till Friday to get back above $14.69.
That MACD is not looking good and volume still has 3 days to increase!
roadrunner
Earnings warnings will start in about 20 days. We will revist at that time.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
As for the energy stocks I think they will stage a large rally sometime in the next couple years as the price of oil rises to at least double what it currently is and I think that mining stocks will have a nice rally along with some quality blue chips.
Gotta be nimble.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
roadrunner
Well so much for nibbling off more on the way down to $875-$880. Gold made 3 consecutive ramps back to $939 over the past few days. At each step it lingered like it didn't want to go away. It seems it has $950 on its mind (top of ye old trading range). Some of the miners already back up 20%. Didn't pick up much in $1-$10 generic gold either, didn't seem to be many sellers....even at $900/oz.
As far as gaps go, only very few of them got filled since they were closer to the 50% retrace. It was pointed out by one of the Kitco Forum guys that $Gold has a pair of "minute" gaps back in the upper $300's and lower $400's that trace all the way back to the 2003-2004 market. By that reasoning, gold is doomed to fail long term. I recommend bailing on your modern UHR's while you still can.
roadrunner
Gold will top out when one ounce of gold equals the DJIA.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>
<< <i>Why are they talking this economy down? Stocks seem to be below asset value in some cases and seem to be ripe for picking. >>
I don't think you've seen anything yet. Be patient. >>
I concur. The upside is limited until earnings turn around, and they haven't yet stop falling. I'm with you. I think we head further down.. 5k on the down, maybe lower 4K perhaps.
Probably 400 on the SP 500. The risk is to the long side on equities. Gold, I think, must be played from the long side. I like to buy under 880 and silver under 12.
The bull has never left. And in the current economic environment where people are looking for safe havens against depreciating currencies and bonds backed by cities, states, and govts in financial default, then that leaves only gold and other commodities. Should the dollar weaken further and not make a clean break above .90, it would only strengthen the set up for precious metals.
On top of that, I think the dollar is at a high, and will be correcting back down. This will also boost the equities market, as well as gold.
After reconsidering the other market factors, I'm going to ammend my previous post to say that once it hits $990/1000, I see a run to a new high of $1170.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I don't see how we can avoid a new all-time high in gold by April-May time frame. Then MoneyLA can put his stamp of approval on the bull and join the party. It will be interesting to see at what levels he recommends that his listeners jump back in.
roadrunner
<< <i>I guess I would add my observations in the equities market. The equities market has turned... I don' think it's headed down any further in the short term. There is some optimism trickling into the markets... just listen to the market recaps for last week - definitely positive, although very slightly. Everyone was expecting the bear rally, and everyone had pretty much given up on that after the last couple of weeks. Now people are skeptical of a turnaround. The is the precise recipe for a rally.
On top of that, I think the dollar is at a high, and will be correcting back down. This will also boost the equities market, as well as gold.
After reconsidering the other market factors, I'm going to ammend my previous post to say that once it hits $990/1000, I see a run to a new high of $1170. >>
It would appear that some type of Obama rally has started which could take the dow up to 8,500-9,000 as people flee the dollar and the puny interest it pays. It would appear that oil related stocks along with financial and some of the beaten down blue chips have staged a decent rally, actually Wells Fargo which I'd been waiting to get into for a blowoff price similiar to BAC and C has had a huge rally off the low and I missed that opportunity. Gold, Silver and the PGM's have all staged nice rallies from their lows along with mining stocks which have rallied even more, the talk on CNBC lately has been not deflation but reinflation not that I put much stock in what any of them has to say.
It looks like people are starting to see the mountains of money being printed worldwide and in anticipation are moving their money from the "safe haven" of fiat currency into tangible assets but at some point perhaps early summer through fall the market will suffer a massive selloff as the "smart money" whipsaws things around. It would appear that long term "buy and hold" investing is dead as that mentality has been replaced with a bunch of daytraders, of course with the amount of fraud rampant on wall street today I can't really blame people.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear