The Economy and Graded Sportscards
PSARich
Posts: 534 ✭✭✭
I always figured there were four types of people active in the graded sportscard market. 1) The collector: who simply loves cards and his/her collections, and buys cards with discretionary money for the joy of it with little consideration given to making money during the process. 2) The Collector - Investor: who puts together his/her collection because of the love for the hobby, but also is more careful with what is spent on which cards because at some point the collection may be sold and it would be nice if he/she could recoup what was spent. Probably a person more "condition sensitive." 3) The Investor - Collector: who also loves sportscards and puts together more high grade sets, knowing that condition and scarsity drive a card's value, and is planning on someday selling the collection and making a profit. 4) The Investor: who is certainly interested in the sportscard market but is investing in cards with the idea that his/her purchases will increase in value and will sell when the price or the market is right.
Now given that premise, I am just confounded that the sales prices of graded cards on ebay seem to be indifferent to the fact that there is a recession going on. I consider myself as a #2. I love baseball cards but I only buy PSA 9's for the most part, 1950-1975, and although I have no plans to sell my collection the near future, I don't plan on leaving it to my kids either. Hence, I would also like to make a profit when I do sell. I would say in the last few months that the percentage of auctions that I have bid on and won is lower than last fall. The prices that some PSA 9 commons have gone for recently amazes me. I still maintain that for most people, the hobby is an outlet for their discretionay money, what they have left after the bills are paid. But yet. there seems to be as much spent on graded cards, at least on ebay, as ever. So what's up? I figured as the economy faltered I would realize some great deals on ebay for PSA 9 commons that are vintage or 1970's stuff. But I'm not seeing it except on the stuff where the population numbers are really high, such as 1974 baseball PSA 9 commons.
On top of that, I see so many graded crads on ebay that have the new PSA label (reflecting the recent period when they switched to the 1/2 point system), that it is obvious that the amount of cards being slabbed is still pretty steady. It appears PSA is still as busy as ever, although I think the recent specials have helped with submissions.
So what do all my card collectinmg friends think about the impact of the economy on graded card collecting? Are we going to see a downturn or is the hobby insultated from the recession....or am I just bidding on the wrong cards?
Now given that premise, I am just confounded that the sales prices of graded cards on ebay seem to be indifferent to the fact that there is a recession going on. I consider myself as a #2. I love baseball cards but I only buy PSA 9's for the most part, 1950-1975, and although I have no plans to sell my collection the near future, I don't plan on leaving it to my kids either. Hence, I would also like to make a profit when I do sell. I would say in the last few months that the percentage of auctions that I have bid on and won is lower than last fall. The prices that some PSA 9 commons have gone for recently amazes me. I still maintain that for most people, the hobby is an outlet for their discretionay money, what they have left after the bills are paid. But yet. there seems to be as much spent on graded cards, at least on ebay, as ever. So what's up? I figured as the economy faltered I would realize some great deals on ebay for PSA 9 commons that are vintage or 1970's stuff. But I'm not seeing it except on the stuff where the population numbers are really high, such as 1974 baseball PSA 9 commons.
On top of that, I see so many graded crads on ebay that have the new PSA label (reflecting the recent period when they switched to the 1/2 point system), that it is obvious that the amount of cards being slabbed is still pretty steady. It appears PSA is still as busy as ever, although I think the recent specials have helped with submissions.
So what do all my card collectinmg friends think about the impact of the economy on graded card collecting? Are we going to see a downturn or is the hobby insultated from the recession....or am I just bidding on the wrong cards?
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For me it its 2 and some 3 or just collection management. Ive found this year to be about the same as last year, I cant keep a modern key card in highgrade in my store no matter what tag I throw on it however must be real nice.
I think what your seeing is many people are fed up with the banking industry and stocks. They would rather own something they enjoy in there investments.
On the flipside Ive seen alot of cherry stuff in auction houses and ebay with many deals to be had especially with the new search on ebay which is horrible in the past month ive missed 10 cards that I would like to put in my set. I search twice a week and never saw them.
On the football side I think there has been some softening in certain areas of the market over the past 6 months, particularly 1970s-present. But overall, especially with the tough to find and/or pre-1960s stuff, it is still selling as high as ever.
Using your 4 categories, here's my opinion on how the recession affects each:
1) The collector---Probably has less discretionary money, or at the very least has become more protective of what they are spending on and thus spending less on cards.
2) The Collector - Investor---Overall, I think this category of collectors will remain steady/unaffected. If they've been buying smartly in the past, they can see now that the cards have been better than buying stocks over the past couple of years.
3) The Investor - Collector---Might actually start buying more cards. Particularly from those areas which seem to be currently selling at bargains.
4) The Investor---We may be seeing the biggest influx of this category right now and moving forward. For those who lost a bundle in the market, they might be looking for a new outlet to invest their money in that they were buying stocks with in the past. Especially if they get turned onto a price tracking site like a VCP and see that many card prices (specifically vintage) have held and in some cases even increased in value the last 6 months...Not many investments out there right now that can say that...
The biggest things this hobby has going for it, is that it is a hobby rooted in #1, love of sports, and #2, values due to scarcity. Its a combination that usually pulls on heart strings and not just purse strings when it comes to buying and selling.
Jason
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
I had almost completely finished putting to gether a raw 1954 set, I was just filling in holes for commons. All the big important cards had been acquired already. (i.e. both Ted Williams cards, the Banks, Aaron, and Kaline RCs etc.) Then I get sent overseas on a 7 month deployment. Well my gf of 2 1/2 years decided to leave me while I was out to sea and also decided to take all my possesions including my 54 set. Well when I returned home and learned of this I contacted the athorities. What I was told was that an officer would escort me through her house and I could point to anything that I wanted to contest as being mine. They would compose a list and then I could take her to court for everything on the list, however I would have to prove that I had purchased everything on the list with reciepts and serial#s.
Now the whole reason I started collecting the 54 set was because a lot of the 54s had been passed down to me from an uncle so there was no way to prove they were mine. The only cards I ended up getting back, among other things, were 3 cards that had been graded (which was very new at the time) because I showed my purchase history from Ebay, as well as the auction photos where the cert numbers matched the numbers on the slabs in question. So ever since then I have only collected graded cards.
Lastly, I agree with your observation that bargains are few and far between. I've done much more selling than buying recently as I've had a hard time finding value with cards I could potentially flip -- this "strategy" only works if you are patient and restrain yourself from overpaying.
Always plenty of PSA-graded cards in my ebay store -- https://ebay.com/str/thelumbercompanysportscards
Maybe looking for nice eye appeal for the grade, and small qualifiers which dont hurt the presentation of the card. The latter I think will be the best investment over time. If you can get a PSA 5mk Cobb at a PSA 3 price simply because someone circle the # on the back. Why not? I understand the registry is a powerful drug and knocks down the grade by 2, but in my eyes, and I am sure in most other peoples BUY THE CARD not the holder! I have spent more in the last two months than I ever have, one simply because I had about 1000 in grading fees alone, another because I am down to the last 8 cards for my 55 topps set, and just want it done! I am not paying Levi prices, but about 50% over what I used to pick trying to get a score. Guess what I AM STILL LOSING auctions! I dont get, I may have however picked up a recession type deal, which I will post into this thread...if it comes to fruition
I hope the cards stay strong and continue a slow rise in price, I am speaking basically about pre 60's since I really dont follow the others too much
Put me in Category 2 - The Collector-Investor also ! Like you , I have no intention of leaving my collection to my kids , as they would just sell it as soon as they got there hands on them ! Meanwhile , I get to enjoy owning them and having fun building a collection .
As you pointed out , what recession ? In the set I collect , 1964 Topps baseball , there is a definite increase and interest in pursuing Psa 9's ! A influx of new Registry people , people playing the crack and resubmit game for that elusive 10 , and speculators hoping to resell for a higher price ! And quite possibly , as someone already mentioned , people tired of getting burned in the stock market , looking for a investment they can at least hold in their hand and look at ! Weather cards are a good investment as opposed to the Market , I'm not convinced one way or the other !
There's a thread on the other board about Mets71 buying spree for months now ( and yes , count me as one of the ones being outbid by him ) ! And then there is a certain collector who bids and buys every 1964 Topps #103 - Curt Flood card that comes up graded or raw ( trying to corner the market on a tough card or a savy collector needing the card to sell complete sets ??? ) , and wins the majority of them ! Sold him a Psa 7 about two years ago ! Regardless of ones motives for buying Graded cards , I think there is a new wave of speculators trying to cash in on Collectibles ! People that don't want to buy gold ( by the way it passed a $1,000/ounce today ) because they can't see it or hold it , like holding collectibles in there hand !
Anyway , enough rambling from me ! It's a fun hobby and keeps me occupied ( been retired for two years now ) and I'm not wasting my time in a bar somewhere pissing away money !
Robbie
1963 Fleer
Lou Brock Master Set
Look at auction sales, psa 8's not to mention 9's still are at a relative premium. especially high numbers low pops.
thaey are easier to sell than many stars, as their are fewer around.
look at he usual suspects 1967 highs, 1969 bill robinson, kekich, 1966 snyder and on and on.......
you cant go wrong
Also, the more thinly collected a particular set is, the greater the chance that the recession will knock out a substantial part of its collector base. If you're talking vintage Topps sets, it would take a lot of people curtailing buying habits for most PSA 8s to show a large drop, but if you're talking about some oddball issue or regional, one collector no longer bidding could lead to a serious price drop.
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
Jasen
I've heard, over the past two years, more than just a few financial experts suggest that stock investors diversify their portfolios and move 20-30% of their monies into "museum quality" sportscards and other "collectibles." I chuckle at the term "museum quality," but I'm assuming they mean high grade material.
I used to be pretty active in building sportscard portfolios for several clients (and still add to a few now and then) and over the years, I don't think any of them have been anything but amazed at the escalation of their portfolio's value. I was just looking at some spreadsheets and the average portfolio has increased over 400% in the past 8 years.
Given the current market, I'm pretty sure that smart discetionary income has been and is being invested in higher grade and vintage material.
Personally, I know that it is getting increasingly more difficult for me to win auctions on mid to high grade vintage football. And that's even bidding OVER recent transactions (per VCP).
It's not really that amazing, but it also suggests that some of these sports card investments will be put back into the market when the investors become more comfortable with an eventual upturn in the economy and regain faith in the traditional investment vehicles like the stock market and commodities.
1933 Goudey #160 Gehrig PSA 3.5 won for just under $700 shipped(SMR for a 3 is $800)
1933 Goudey Klein PSA 4 won for $81 shipped(SMR $125)
These two aren't the highest grades out there, but can you go wrong with HOF Goudey's under SMR?? I am watching for a deal on a Ruth, but the bidding is going way over SMR for even PSA 1's
1968 and 1969 Wilhelm PSA 9's(won seperately) for a total of $65 Shipped
1968 Bunning PSA 9 for under $30 Shipped
at the same time, I have also overpaid for a 67 Carlton PSA 9 (pop 17) and paid over $1k...but when do you ever see it for sale?
65 Carlton PSA 9 I also paid over $800, but since then the SMR value has at least caught up to it a bit...larger pop for this, but don't see it that often and you won't get it for a bargain if for no other reason then someone else will buy it to sell it for more then current market.
Here's something I don't get... Cards like the 89 Upper Deck Griffey PSA 10 regularly sells for about $200 and the pop is something over 1,000 of them with plenty of more to come as people bust open the cases. I like Griffey(until he is caught cheating), but how does the market support that kind of money for that high of population??
So what do I think is the best way to deal with this economy. First grade anything vintage that you have in your collection which you think can grade 8 or higher. Even though PSA continues to raise their prices each year, their prices are still low enough to justify the significant increase in value if you can hit the 8,especialy if you are a member and can take advantage of their monthly specials. With respect to buying, this is tougher as at some point when the market begins to come back, and it will come back because it always does, prices on the cards you are overpaying for today are going to drop as these "pure investors " leave the card market and get back in to the stock market. Thus, I would only "dabble" at this point in the vintage market buying only what you really need or want for your collection but I would not buy everything in sight as prices will come back down at some point.
Also have lost quite a bit on some.....
I see the hobby across the board dropping in prices realized. In each category it will be different based on who the top dogs are. If something is truely rare and in high grade....they will spend top dollar. As they aquire the card...gradually the price drops as they stop looking and not in the market/or the pop grows a little. The rarer the card and/or higher the grade determines how this recession/hobby affects card prices. That is why the nice graded psa 8's of vintage (especially FB) seems to be dropping. I have seen nice and still relatively scarce psa 8 vintage FB RC'S not sell for $500 less that they did 2 years ago...and at that the card wouldn't have lasted long.
I have stopped spending without consideration of how much I spent vs. future possible value and chances of seeing the card appear again on ebay.
It's a sad world when a sailor is off serving his country and his possesions are taken. Sorry for the GF...but I'm sure a solid citizen like him deserves better anyways...and can easily get another whom appreciates his sacrifice. My question..is why didn't the authorities check HER story out and ask for HER receipts of the 54 set cards? If it were me I would organize a commando operation and go get them back...maybe you can get OJ Simpson to head it....
1948-76 Topps FB Sets
FB & BB HOF Player sets
1948-1993 NY Yankee Team Sets
The secret I have is the way I've been able to structure my bills. We have a nice home and our bills normally add up to about 40 % of our net income. I have a job , almost no one likes , but is mandated by most state laws. I'm a commercial pest specialist , that takes the jobs NO BODY in our company wants, I.E.---State Prisons -- Military bases --- Airports --- Housing projects. The economy has not hit me very much at all, SO FAR.
I thank GOD everyday for my wife, our sons , my job and the opportunities he has given us. If my son's sets increase in value someday that will be great. If not , its been a wonderful time , putting them together. I'm really in it for the fun.
You have the worst financial crisis in 70 years....bank stocks are turning into confetti....oh, no big deal. Boxes like 87 Fleer basketball are still selling for $1,000. That's just amazing to me.
-Generally, I think pre war goes higher long term. Other sets will catch up to t206, cracker jack and goudey. A lot of sleeper potential there.
-50's to 70's. Don't follow it that closely. Mid grade or high grade? Dont know.
-70's to 90's. Could continue to drop. The graded common game will eventually crash. Buying low pop psa 9 commons from the 70's and expecting them to maintain their value....it can't last.
-70's and 80's rare boxes. If they haven't crashed so far, I think they're basically recession proof. It's hard to see them collapsing.
RB
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
<< <i> 2) The Collector - Investor: who puts together his/her collection because of the love for the hobby, but also is more careful with what is spent on which cards because at some point the collection may be sold and it would be nice if he/she could recoup what was spent. Probably a person more "condition sensitive." >>
I buy mostly 70's baseball 8's and 9's. I noticed the end of last year I seemed to be getting some good deals, but since the first of the year I'm amazed at how high some of the prices for cards I was watching have gone for. Several of early to mid 70's PSA 9's I bought last year I've watched sell for 2 and 3 times what I paid.
4SC's has also stopped selling there cards as low in auctions. They are just listing them with BIN prices much higher than in the past.
What recession again??
I watched this one end last night. A common from 1973. It's not even a low pop card. I bought one the same grade a few months ago for under $7.00.
<< <i>1973 Topps #348 PSA 9
I watched this one end last night. A common from 1973. It's not even a low pop card. I bought one the same grade a few months ago for under $7.00. >>
Since when is Ronnie a common?
I've seen some large sales on eBay but there is a lot of stuff down... 1993 Jeter SP graded 10/9.5, Jordan 1986 Fleer graded 9, I guess I shouldn't include A-Rod for economic reason!
First (and only?) player to go 7 for 7 in a 9-inning game . . . anything but common -- Go BUCS!
Always plenty of PSA-graded cards in my ebay store -- https://ebay.com/str/thelumbercompanysportscards
I'd a category 2 collector-investor and can't imagine life without my morning Ebay fix.
One reason for my football card focus is that their population is lower than baseball cards, and it seems intuitive that football values would have an upward trajectory that parallels the great national interest in the sport.
However, both checking Vintage Card Prices and anecdotally, it appears that baseball tobacco cards have held their values better while many vintage football card values have fallen. One theory - perhaps this is due to the timelessness and appeal of the vintage tobaccos, coupled with the fact that the tobacco buyer demographic may be more suited to weather a recession than football card investor / collectors.
In summary, it's just amazing that something with zero intrinsic value like vintage sports cards has a strong, vibrant market when banks are failing and "bailout" and "foreclosure" are everyday words in the American lexicon. I love it, love sports cards, and am buying more all the time.
<< <i>New to the hobby, I've only been buying graded sportscards for one year. Most of my buys are higher-end vintage graded football cards, secondly are some baseball tobacco cards and the occasional vintage basketball. Overall, it's been remarkable how resilient that sales prices have remained in the face of a strong national recession.
One reason for my football card focus is that their population is lower than baseball cards, and it seems intuitive that football values would have an upward trajectory that parallels the great national interest in the sport.
However, both checking Vintage Card Prices and anecdotally, it appears that baseball tobacco cards have held their values better while many vintage football card values have fallen. One theory - perhaps this is due to the timelessness and appeal of the vintage tobaccos, coupled with the fact that the tobacco buyer demographic may be more suited to weather a recession than football card investor / collectors.
In summary, it's just amazing that something with zero intrinsic value like vintage sports cards has a strong, vibrant market when banks are failing and "bailout" and "foreclosure" are everyday words in the American lexicon. I love it, love sports cards, and am buying more all the time. >>
Welcome to the forum !!!!
-Topps Dodgers cards in PSA 9, 1952-1979
-1971 Topps in PSA 9
<< <i>Topps Baseball 1971 PSA 9 cards are selling for higher prices than ever. '71s in 9 are rare and command steep premiums. No sign of recession in this particular market. >>
Two words, Don Spence.
Baseball remains strong, yet no substantial appreciation lately. Some price erosion in high-grade football from the '60s, '70s, and '80s is evident, but even that is minimal, and I don't see this elsewhere in the vintage market. Surprisingly, I've seen vintage high-end basketball cards over the last few weeks sell for appreciably more than they did 1 to 3 years ago. However, that may be due to a smaller sample size of just a few buyers scooping up those desirable '57 and '69 basketball for a few weeks - or not?
All in all, it's remarkable that in the throes of the strongest economic recession since the 1930s, bidders seem to be able to summon the financial wherewithal to buy a tangible representation of a favorite player or card design. In a point-and-click world, it becomes increasingly rare and even magical to hold something like a T206 Piedmont Ty Cobb Portrait card in your hand. As long as people like sports and the players that play them, people will buy, and drive continually demand for, vintage sports cards and memorabilia.
#19 All Time 500 Goal Scorers
#41 All Time 3000 Strikeouts Club
#25 Cal Ripken Jr. Basic Topps
#4 Greg Maddux Basic Topps
#7 Ryne Sandberg Basic Topps
#1 Fank Thomas Rookies 100%
#1 Chipper Jones Rookies 100%
I consider myself in the Collector-Opportunist category. I collect Non Sport and a Little bit of some Sports, and Buy all of it when I can, to Flip, or sub and flip. I do this only to make my collecting affordable, because as has been mentioned, with wife, kids, mort, ect. don't have oodles and oodles of discretionary income.
So while most of my endeavors are in Non Sports and I can speak fairly well of that arena I still see a little bit of all of it. And I can tell you the money and realized prices for some of the Non Sport stuff has just been through the roof. And I am not talking about say losing a lot at $75 bucks when my max bid is $70, but the same lot going for $500. There is just some crazy money coming in and it has really increased in the last 6 months.
And then of couse there is other stuff that was high 6 months ago that with the proliferation of 4SC, Uncommons, Justcollect, ect, Subbing, you can't give the stuff away.
But still there is more of the stuff selling for way more than it should than way less.
Neil
At times I see cards that are good deals, I grab them, then flip them, and use the money to fund my Bossy sets. I try to do this with cards that I am not partial to, for instance, modern and sports other than hockey…
As far as the Bossy sets, I don’t look to make any money off of the extra cards I get through upgrading, I simply would like for more people to participate in his sets, so when I have extras of those cards I generally sell them without profit.
Patrick
#19 All Time 500 Goal Scorers
#41 All Time 3000 Strikeouts Club
#25 Cal Ripken Jr. Basic Topps
#4 Greg Maddux Basic Topps
#7 Ryne Sandberg Basic Topps
#1 Fank Thomas Rookies 100%
#1 Chipper Jones Rookies 100%