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Thoughts on Registry collectors and the 3 Lincoln 13-d MS66 coins (pop 12/0) sold at LB
DMWJR
Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭✭✭
I have a nice 1913-d in MS65red in my set, so of course I noticed that three of the 12 graded MS66red examples were coming to auction back to back at the Heritage Long Beach show. That is a significant percent of the graded examples, and I thought it might give some insight as to where the high end Lincoln market is right now.
The December and January Lincoln sales showed some very strong sales in the 32-58 dates for 67red coins (and 68 for 1943pds), regardless of the quality of the coin in the holder. This says to me that there are some "slab buyers" building high grade sets, and more than just two players. I also saw this continue in the Long Beach sale. Don't get me wrong, I thought there were plenty of super nice examples that crossed the block, but the hammer prices were strong for otherwise very common dates with the undergrade being in the hundreds and even thousands.
Early wheats seemed to fair a little differently, and the prices were more reflective of the quality of the coin inside the holder. To me this indicates fewer "slab buyers" and more true collectors selectively buying the coin rather than just the holder.
So I thought it was interesting to see what happened with the 13-d's at the Long Beach auction. When I look at the number of very high grade sets in the registry, it appears that there are plenty of those collectors who need a 13-d in 66red. However, prices seem to be weak for this particular date/mm.
Were the coins just weak for the grade? I haven't seen them in person, so I can't reach a true conclusion.
Are current buyers for early wheats more interested in the quality of the coin rather than the grade on the holder?
Lot 412: Hammer - $8,050 (Her. 12/08 - $8,625)
]&sink)
]&sink)
Lot 413: Hammer - $8,625 (02/05 - $13,800)
]&sink)
]&sink)
Lot 414: Hammer $6,325
]&sink)
]&sink)
The December and January Lincoln sales showed some very strong sales in the 32-58 dates for 67red coins (and 68 for 1943pds), regardless of the quality of the coin in the holder. This says to me that there are some "slab buyers" building high grade sets, and more than just two players. I also saw this continue in the Long Beach sale. Don't get me wrong, I thought there were plenty of super nice examples that crossed the block, but the hammer prices were strong for otherwise very common dates with the undergrade being in the hundreds and even thousands.
Early wheats seemed to fair a little differently, and the prices were more reflective of the quality of the coin inside the holder. To me this indicates fewer "slab buyers" and more true collectors selectively buying the coin rather than just the holder.
So I thought it was interesting to see what happened with the 13-d's at the Long Beach auction. When I look at the number of very high grade sets in the registry, it appears that there are plenty of those collectors who need a 13-d in 66red. However, prices seem to be weak for this particular date/mm.
Were the coins just weak for the grade? I haven't seen them in person, so I can't reach a true conclusion.
Are current buyers for early wheats more interested in the quality of the coin rather than the grade on the holder?
Lot 412: Hammer - $8,050 (Her. 12/08 - $8,625)
Lot 413: Hammer - $8,625 (02/05 - $13,800)
Lot 414: Hammer $6,325
Doug
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Comments
<< <i>I think they are fairly weak 6's but that said I like the strike (and the obverse) on lot 413 and the color on lot 414 the best. They all have too many spots. >>
I think that's being kind. The first one definately should not be given the strike and hits. The second one you could argue in spite of the rev spots given the strike. And for the third one, it's hard too tell from the picture but it appears to have monster luster which could bump it up and overcome the obv nick and spots. JMHO
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase/2819
I tend to think that TPG's are a little more lenient on the early mint marks. Sometimes too much so. That being said, how many out there are really "all there."
To me, lower than expected price means any one or all of these:
1. Thin market
2. Weak for the grade coin (still original)
3. Doctored coin
4. Impact of bad economy
(Don't misunderstand, I think the Lincoln market as a whole is one of the strongest segments of the coin market)
None of the three coins are keepers as a ms 66 red 13 D.
BTW I heard another 13 D in 66 red was made at the show that was better than all 3 coins.
I own two 13 D Lincolns in ms 66 red that I would bet would bring
$15,000 for either one of them at an auction tomorrow.
Nice Lincolns bring BIG BUCKS
BTW what about an 18 S that brought $25,000 ?
Stewart
The first coin has too much chatter and should just be a 65.
The last two both have definite carbon spots which would normally limit the grade to 64.
The prices seemed to dictate slab number and not actually the coins quality.
The 18-s looked really nice and original from the pictures. Wish I could have seen it in person. Obviously others thought it was nice too.
As you said, "Nice Lincolns bring BIG BUCKS."
What has been deceptive in the last 5-7 years is the amount of money not so nice coins in the same plastic holders have brought. I've seen terrible coins sell for $25k, and then I see what I think is a really nice one in the same grade, and it brings the same money. Looks like things might be changing along those lines at least until we get another plastic buyer on the scene.
I was very excited to see THREE 13-D's in 66RD. Then the excitement faded when I looked at the images. I just couldn't bring myself to chase one of them.
The 18-S was a coin I was really focused on, but messed up on the bidding (for numerous reasons, i never got my bid in). Looked pretty nice from the image. I'm sure Stewart could describe the coin to you as he probably owned it a while back. He only had THREE at one time!!!
Jack
By the way, I thought lot 413, the Merschon coin, was the best of the group. Great strike, nice surfaces, average color, with a couple of spots on the reverse. If you told me one of the three was a 66, I would have picked this one. I probably would have said 64 on lot 414. On the other hand, Lot 412 just looks suspicious to me.
We've talked around the boards about a bifurcated market with top graded coins going to the moon, while lower and average coins slowly sink. It seems to me that it is stretching further out in a linear fashion and some of the top graded coins are stretching their legs and walking on ahead. Is this what happened with large cents to the point there became an accurate condition census where coins are known by name. Stewart may already be able to do this, but he is probably the only one.
Indians and FE's have matured to this point as well where 95% of the top coins are known, and unfortunately held in strong hands. Somebody's going to have to sell one of those sets before anybody else can have a chance.
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes