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Gold breaks through $930...$935...$940.....
roadrunner
Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
It was a thing of beauty to watch the 5 wave up move this morning reach around $929 and then correct back. It smelt bullish. A simple correction back around $7 and the start of leg 3 seemed very bullish as gold pushed right back to the upper $920's. Then another simple wave 2 correction of a few dollars and then sure enough, on leg 3 it shot straight up. Very possible to get a $950+ close today.
I've been lurking on the Kitco gold forum the past few days and it seemed most everyone was bearish at >$930. This morning most of those players took some profits at $922-$927 and started shorting again. In any case this current move seems to knock out the theory that the entire up move from mid-December was just another big corrective wave in the overall downtrend from March. Looks like all the chartists will have to rework their counts. Cyclically gold was expected to interim top this week or next. Next week is options expiration week.
The rest of this week and possibly next week should be interesting.
I picked up some $10 Indians in MS63/64 about 2 weeks ago when they bottomed. That play should turn out ok now. Sold some $20's on Sunday however a tad too early. I should kick myself because everytime dealer 'X" comes by to buy heavy, it's a sure sign there are bulls in the air. This move could take MS65 saints to $2000 for the first time since the 1988-1990 hey days. I guess now we know why so many dealers were paying up for gold at the Long Beach show.
I'm chuckling at the Kitco short term charts because they haven't been updated in 1-1/2 hours now (since $923). I guess they don't want anyone to be able to count the waves (lol). In any case a quick pullback from $942, and then a final wave 5 to $950-$960 range. Kitco is a scream at times. One cautionary note is that the gold shares have been quite sluggish as of late and are not responding that bullishly on this move up. It may be because there is more safety in bullion in the hand than there is in gold in the ground. The recent stock market hit (PPT pushing it down again so that the politicians will feel pressure to approve TARP 2) is not helping the gold stocks that once again got tossed out with the bath water.
roadrunner
I've been lurking on the Kitco gold forum the past few days and it seemed most everyone was bearish at >$930. This morning most of those players took some profits at $922-$927 and started shorting again. In any case this current move seems to knock out the theory that the entire up move from mid-December was just another big corrective wave in the overall downtrend from March. Looks like all the chartists will have to rework their counts. Cyclically gold was expected to interim top this week or next. Next week is options expiration week.
The rest of this week and possibly next week should be interesting.
I picked up some $10 Indians in MS63/64 about 2 weeks ago when they bottomed. That play should turn out ok now. Sold some $20's on Sunday however a tad too early. I should kick myself because everytime dealer 'X" comes by to buy heavy, it's a sure sign there are bulls in the air. This move could take MS65 saints to $2000 for the first time since the 1988-1990 hey days. I guess now we know why so many dealers were paying up for gold at the Long Beach show.
I'm chuckling at the Kitco short term charts because they haven't been updated in 1-1/2 hours now (since $923). I guess they don't want anyone to be able to count the waves (lol). In any case a quick pullback from $942, and then a final wave 5 to $950-$960 range. Kitco is a scream at times. One cautionary note is that the gold shares have been quite sluggish as of late and are not responding that bullishly on this move up. It may be because there is more safety in bullion in the hand than there is in gold in the ground. The recent stock market hit (PPT pushing it down again so that the politicians will feel pressure to approve TARP 2) is not helping the gold stocks that once again got tossed out with the bath water.
roadrunner
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i just feel as time goes by and the economy gets buzzing again... things will
be different. fear will subside and the money goes to other projects.
but as always i find it interesting that upswings are explained as fundamentals...
corrections down are now part of a normal cycle of commodities..
and manipulation is no longer mentioned.
i guess the bulls are in a good mood.. ;-)
"ever stop to think and forget to start up again?"
someone mentioned that the ETF's were initiated for mining and producing companies and threrfore traders to be able to hedge future production costs, now it's way more than what it was intended.
fc, how long before the economic turn around? i always put some stock in those with gut feelings.
Sorry fc that $6 silver or $550 gold is not right around the corner. It is both fundamentals and technicals....look at the charts for the past few months. The current rally should come as no surprise. As far as manipulation, that's what's been keeping gold under $930 for the past several weeks, very obvious. With yesterday's stock market blow out the PPT finally succumbed to buying pressure that's been around since December. Even the 28,000 shorts just added by JPM and it's 1 or 2 buddies wasn't enough yet to hold the line. The PPT will take their next stand at $1000. If they fail to hold that line the shorts will be in serious trouble. Oddly, silver has been leading this move up as a sort of bell ringer. And I spoke too soon about the gold stocks. The major gold stocks are now participating big time in the range of 5-11% up across the board today. Even GDX is up 6%.
If you spent some time going to the sites that discussed charting you would see that technicals are at play as well with both sides of the coin evaluated. If anything, the gold sites seemed a tad bearish about the constant rejections at $920 and were getting to toss the towel in. Yet is was also noteworthy that $880-$890 was holding each time. Corrections have always been part of the normal cycles, just as manipulation is and always will be. Why have a market if the insiders and banks can't manipulate it to their benefit?
When there is no longer a commodities bull market in progress (whether impulse or reactive waves in progress) then certainly the tide will shift to the buzzing economy. In case you didn't notice many commodities, services, etc are well off their 2008 bottoms. It's already happening. But some companies are still nearing the bottom or in the process of heading down to it.
roadrunner
i do not have a horse in either the silver or gold race. i am happy people here
are making money. i guess my only hope is things do not get insane for everyone
else while gold/silver spikes.
good luck!
(i just blew my wad on a down payment for a house and now i need to buy so much stuff :-|
move in is seven days from now)
Good luck with the house fc. We'll keep you posted on PM's in the interim.
roadrunner
<< <i>"i just blew my wad"
and i have the money shot to prove it!