Post 1979 cards and the economy
yankeeno7
Posts: 9,252 ✭✭✭
Just some thoughts why I think post 1979 cards will take a hard hit with this recession. I will first start with an example....
Everyone loves Ripken rookies so I will go with 1982 Topps. Say for example there are a mix of 100 cases of wax and vending, not even counting rack cases. That equals nearly 1.2 million cards (12,000 cards per case...wax case not quite that many but Im just estimating) in 100 cases. Out of that 1.2 million cards, there are 1500 Cal Ripken rookies...thats right, 1500!!! You KNOW there are a LOT more than 100 cases out there.
If a company makes a limited card of 1500 and its a mega star, dont expect to get more than a buck for it.
How long will these Ripkens stay as high as they are even in high grade? How long will it be before you will be lucky to get 3-5 bucks for a nice nm/mt Ripken rookie? There are THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS out there. That goes for every thing made in the last 30 years.
With this recession, I would imagine people will adjust to focus on their collections and spend on only things they REALLY want. The hoarders will be destroyed with their investments. All I can think of is the guy with the 500 high grade rookies of Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Sandberg, Mattingly, McGwire, Clemens, Bonds, Jeter, ARod, Vlad, etc etc...
We all know this stuff isnt really rare.
I even wonder if people will be into buying much 80s/90s/2000s wax. Sure, people will always love to bust but not for 100-200 a box. Especially when the hits SUCK (ie Heritage). It will always be fun to bust to get that rare big hit but at what expense?
Im not saying this stuff is going to happen...just surprised that it hasnt happened and wonder if anyone else thinks the chances are of this happening. When will we see people start to pull this stuff out of their closets or dump from their warehouse?
Fritch alone could cause this if they decided to sell and get out before a hard economic hit LOL How many cases do you think THEY have by themselves?????? A whole helluva lot!
Ok, I'll stop thinking now
Everyone loves Ripken rookies so I will go with 1982 Topps. Say for example there are a mix of 100 cases of wax and vending, not even counting rack cases. That equals nearly 1.2 million cards (12,000 cards per case...wax case not quite that many but Im just estimating) in 100 cases. Out of that 1.2 million cards, there are 1500 Cal Ripken rookies...thats right, 1500!!! You KNOW there are a LOT more than 100 cases out there.
If a company makes a limited card of 1500 and its a mega star, dont expect to get more than a buck for it.
How long will these Ripkens stay as high as they are even in high grade? How long will it be before you will be lucky to get 3-5 bucks for a nice nm/mt Ripken rookie? There are THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS out there. That goes for every thing made in the last 30 years.
With this recession, I would imagine people will adjust to focus on their collections and spend on only things they REALLY want. The hoarders will be destroyed with their investments. All I can think of is the guy with the 500 high grade rookies of Ripken, Gwynn, Boggs, Sandberg, Mattingly, McGwire, Clemens, Bonds, Jeter, ARod, Vlad, etc etc...
We all know this stuff isnt really rare.
I even wonder if people will be into buying much 80s/90s/2000s wax. Sure, people will always love to bust but not for 100-200 a box. Especially when the hits SUCK (ie Heritage). It will always be fun to bust to get that rare big hit but at what expense?
Im not saying this stuff is going to happen...just surprised that it hasnt happened and wonder if anyone else thinks the chances are of this happening. When will we see people start to pull this stuff out of their closets or dump from their warehouse?
Fritch alone could cause this if they decided to sell and get out before a hard economic hit LOL How many cases do you think THEY have by themselves?????? A whole helluva lot!
Ok, I'll stop thinking now
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Comments
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Therein lies the problem with looking at cards produced
much after 1970 as "investments."
The older stuff is actually fairly scarce, though supply/demand
are pretty much in sync during good economic times. We will
see how that equilibrium holds up, during the next few years
of "hard times."
Almost ALL parents threw away the cards of their kids in the
1950s and 1960s. In the 1970s forward, that scarcity creator
was less prevalent; not good for future values.
Then, we have the HUGE print runs that came as it "looked
like" retail demand was going to be strong forever. Man can
only make collectibles scarce by destroying them; not by
creating them in abundance.
Modern cards are mostly JUST for FUN.