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Gold and silver manipulation in the MAR futures?
roadrunner
Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
A couple of threads in gold land discussing the increase from 82,500 Comex short gold contracts to 111,190 contracts from Jan to Feb. The interesting part is that this 28,000 increase is essentially all due to the work of at most 3 US Banks. While big banks are having TARP money tossed in their laps, they have enough left over after "helping out J6P with his mortgage" to knock out 28,000 short gold contracts. This increased the US bank's total Comex short position to 32%. This turns out to be a larger % than what the same 2-3 banks held back in mid-2008 just before the gold price crashed $200/oz. The silver position is actually higher and again, only a couple of banks are responsible for the increase. In reviewing the entire spectrum of frequently traded commodities, there is nothing else in comparison whether it's oil, hogs, currencies, etc. This information was sourced from Ted Butler's 2/9/09 article.
Now just what is so important in the gold market (ie barbarous relic) that 2 or 3 major US banks need to pile on 28,000 shorts in the past month? (ie 15% of annual world production or on the order of 350 tons of gold)
Link to CFTC to find bank commodities futures positions
roadrunner
Now just what is so important in the gold market (ie barbarous relic) that 2 or 3 major US banks need to pile on 28,000 shorts in the past month? (ie 15% of annual world production or on the order of 350 tons of gold)
Link to CFTC to find bank commodities futures positions
roadrunner
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I sure would love to see a short squeeze.
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
<< <i>please provide a more direct link to the report you are talking about. the link you gave went to some silver web site. thanks >>
better linky.....good site BTW RR
<< <i>Maybe one day the gov't will wake up and put a stop to this manipulation.
I sure would love to see a short squeeze.[/
The government via the federal reserve wants the price of Gold manipulated. This helps keep the dollar in the spotlight instead of allowing Gold to float to it's true free market price, I would imagine this also applies to Silver since the short position is even larger in Silver than it is in Gold.
What is the CTFC and SEC doing to justify their pay? If the government really wanted to have a truly free market they would order these two agencies to enforce the rules instead of dancing around the facts. If these big banks are using TARP money to manipulate Gold and Silver and I as a taxpayer and sizeable holder of PM's am helping to fund this then I am really furious!!! How about this maybe the rules should be changed to state that nobody can naked short anything anymore, if shorts are involved then you must own the commodity or stock in a company or at the very least do not allow such massive naked shorting by so few large entities like the rules state.
Its not too hard to imagine money center banks going short gold after an executive discourse like this:
BigBank CEO: "Gee, gold is way up today. The Kitco site says that investors are worried about the viability of the large banks."
BigBank CFO: "Well, I can tell you we are not about to go under any time soon. And I just had lunch with my buddies over at MegaBank and SuperBank and their not worried either. They’re sitting on a ton of cash and are not about to lend it out to anyone who needs it either."
BigBank CEO: "Sounds to me like a bunch of scardycats have run up the price of gold for no reason again."
BigBank CFO: "That price can’t hold up. Could be a good time to short the hell out of it."
CG
Supposedly, we have banks in business to help build the economy while making legitimate money for the shareholders. The gold futures market as with many others was created for gold producers to lock in or hedge their forward production. But it has morphed into a silly paper game for the banks to swing the markets and help control currencies. It's more than coincidence that over the past 2 years the 24 hour Globex trading market came into existence. This gives the banksters more on-time when the US markets are closed. I think the sheeple would be pi$$ed off to find that inflation indicators like the price of gold & silver are manipulated by a couple of "too big to fail" insolvent banks (at the bequest of the PPT) to help hide the true weakness of the economy. Goldman held a large gold short position on the TOCOM (Tokyo comex) for the past several years. It was obvious that they lost money on that trade so obviously there was another reason for maintaining it....sort of a quid pro quo.
roadrunner
Hey, J6P got squat...no new car, no refi, no credit card relief, squat. I bet there is a lot of lobbying for the "bad bank" scenario from the big players; that would be so sweet if they could just send all those trillions of dollars worth of paper off into a black hole and be able to tidy up their asset sheets AND get some actual cash back for the deal. Maybe then, they could get J6P some help after they get their TARP II buks, of course.
The big banks will be yelling for the rest of their TARP before the month is out because the gold shorts will be crushed. Maybe next time they will go long...DOW below 8000 right now and the passed or soon to be signed economic stumble bill is in the price it would seem.
JMHO
Odd isn't it, that the "help" the banks (which will be using joe six pack's money) will be giving joe six pack will still profit from loaning the money to him that they borrowed from him.
<< <i>I'm trying hard to figure out what side of the trade to be on from this! >>
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Both sides are looking pretty safe.
Based on long experience dealing with GS, when they issue an
upgrade they like to sell into the mid-stage of the pump. But, they
are usually on the SHORT side of most upgrades.
They have no fear of runups because they can always SHORT
into them BIG at higher levels to slavage their early bets.
As the stuff runs, they buy a little to help the price along. They
OFTEN build large SHORT positions at the same time they are
making small buys to help prop the price.
(GS survived the RMBS meltdown by pumping the products to the
suckers, AT THE SAME TIME they were SHORTING the certs into
the ground.)
Their sophisticated hedge-games are the most complex and most
successful in the history of finance.
..................
GLD and SLV look good to me as trades, in both directions.
If I had no PMs, I would likely buy some in this general area.
Just a little taste at a time, though.
................
I have still NOT covered any SHORTs in SLV and GLD.
I have just been trading the swing and scalping a little.
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The stock market is about to recover nicely, or we will have
a failed government. I don't see the machine allowing the
latter to happen, yet.
There are LOTS of bargains, today. Maybe fewer, tomorrow.
...............
SRS is fun to play.
SKF will likely soon be outlawed. They can't have the peasants
making money at these rates.
Tight STOPS or 24/7 watching is necessary on both.
Best not to hold SKF overnight.
.........
CG
B)Gold and silver is just hard enough, with allies to manipulate.
C) Both of the above.
D) None of the above
I'm just posing confusing metallurgical thought processes in my current mental state of mind.
<< <i>Their position is hedged. You read too much into the matter, me thinks. >>
Is this a naked position or a covered position? If naked then why are the taxpayers bailing them out to speculate on something else, wasn't the sub prime fiasco enough? Maybe these guys should go to Vegas if they want to gamble.
of large customers? They are a middleman after all.
Any such positions are probably at the request or "suggestion" of the FOMC/FED and "justified" at helping the economy and stabilizing the USDollar. Whether it's legal, legitimate, or would be publically or politically condoned is of no concern to TPTB.
roadrunner
<< <i>Call them what they are a bunch of manipulating crooks. >>
In numismatics, it's doctoring a coin.
In the world of finance, it's Play Dough.
As I tried to keep tabs on the pre-MARCH '07 run up in gold, I noticed very few buyers on the way up. Mostly what I saw were people cashing their chips as the ladder climbed.
As I see this mini runup of the last couple of months, I see very few sellers................mostly I see buyers continuing to strengthen their position.
Now the techical guys will be able to splain this...........................but I see a STRONG DRIVE to own the metal. And the public hasn't even got on the train yet.
This market is 'different' than a year ago. Completely different feel.
Considering that we are still at only about 60% of the total March 2008 open interest in gold futures contracts, there does appear to still be a lot of accumulating to do before the towel gets tossed in on this leg.
Dow/gold ratio getting close to the 8.0 level.
roadrunner
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As part of the process to approve the ETFs, there were likely a number of
tying-aggreements and reciprocal-deposits placed here that could likely be
grabbed by a rogue US government.
The actual PMs are out of reach, unless the US govt started threatening
to hijack US-based British deposits. Then, I dunno what would happen.
....
All that aside, it is counter-productive to hold BIG blocks of GLD/SLV to
insure against "economic collapse." The physical metals are for that. The
ETFs are just a trading - money making - product.