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Is there a bubble in certain coin areas?
mrearlygold
Posts: 17,858 ✭✭✭
Such as key date coins? It's amazing how much 1909-S VDB's are for example. If it's a bubble when will it pop?
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
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<< <i>Such as key date coins? It's amazing how much 1909-S VDB's are for example. If it's a bubble when will it pop? >>
i am expecting more of a slow decline over the next years instead
of a pop. things just do not look pretty over the long term as most
coin collectors and even the majority of dealers are old.
the last show I went to I was the youngest I could see. I am 33.
it is a huge stretch for me to imagine today's state quarter collectors
paying for 1000+ dollar coins down the road.
coin collecting was a big hobby years ago. today it is not among
youth.
i look at stamps to show me coin collecting's future.
i look at card collecting...
i look at comic books...
i look at etc...
it aint pretty.
<< <i>
<< <i>Such as key date coins? It's amazing how much 1909-S VDB's are for example. If it's a bubble when will it pop? >>
i am expecting more of a slow decline over the next years instead
of a pop. things just do not look pretty over the long term as most
coin collectors and even the majority of dealers are old.
the last show I went to I was the youngest I could see. I am 33.
it is a huge stretch for me to imagine today's state quarter collectors
paying for 1000+ dollar coins down the road.
coin collecting was a big hobby years ago. today it is not among
youth.
i look at stamps to show me coin collecting's future.
i look at card collecting...
i look at comic books...
i look at etc...
it aint pretty. >>
well said
The 1909-S VDB is going to be very vulnerable in the next downturn for Lincoln cents. The date is popular but not rare and has been hoarded over the past ten years or so. In my opinion, it is severely overpriced at current levels.
Few current collectors remember just how dead Lincoln cents were from roughly 1965 to 1995, a thirty year period. It can, and probably will, happen again.
<< <i>Like fc, I see coin collecting as a hobby in slow decline. The collecting population is steadily aging and few young people are joining the hobby.
The 1909-S VDB is going to be very vulnerable in the next downturn for Lincoln cents. The date is popular but not rare and has been hoarded over the past ten years or so. In my opinion, it is severely overpriced at current levels.
Few current collectors remember just how dead Lincoln cents were from roughly 1965 to 1995, a thirty year period. It can, and probably will, happen again. >>
I disagree with this premise. When I go to national shows, I see lots of enthusiasm, lots of younger collectors, and lots of wealthy baby boomers soaking up coins and the numismatic scene.
I do not see a secular trend away from coins from my perch. Remember, too, that coins have been collected for hundreds, if not thousands, of years, long before stamps, baseball cards, and comic books existed.
While those of us who are young see it as an old persons hobby, there is a flip side to that problem. As we age its natural for us to look at what we did before and see it as childish. (in some cases) Thus it makes hobbies more interesting. I kind of wonder if this is how many of us come to the hobby. We get older want a more socially accepted hobby for our age group and find coins to be more intesting than say what we did 10-20 years ago.
This can help drive interest in the 30-40 crowd to try out coins. As long as fakes dont kill it I dont necessarly see the end of the hobby.
There is very little investor interest in moderns. While this can't assure up
markets at least sharp, across the board, corrections are improbable.
irrelevancies and misquote removed in edit.
<< <i>
<< <i>Like fc, I see coin collecting as a hobby in slow decline. The collecting population is steadily aging and few young people are joining the hobby.
The 1909-S VDB is going to be very vulnerable in the next downturn for Lincoln cents. The date is popular but not rare and has been hoarded over the past ten years or so. In my opinion, it is severely overpriced at current levels.
Few current collectors remember just how dead Lincoln cents were from roughly 1965 to 1995, a thirty year period. It can, and probably will, happen again. >>
I disagree with this premise. When I go to national shows, I see lots of enthusiasm, lots of younger collectors, and lots of wealthy baby boomers soaking up coins and the numismatic scene.
I do not see a secular trend away from coins from my perch. Remember, too, that coins have been collected for hundreds, if not thousands, of years, long before stamps, baseball cards, and comic books existed. >>
National shows are expensive to attend and are frequented by the upper end of the collecting population. It is the middle and low end of the collecting fraternity that is going to fade away. Someone has to be around to buy all those hoarded circ. collector coins when they eventually come to market.
As I have said in previous posts, I believe that most people would be stunned by the number, variety and size of numismatic coin hoards that are presently being held. Many won't appear until the owners die, but, given the age of most such collectors, that may not be far in the future.
How many members of this board remember when circulated Jefferson nickels were a hot item? They were back in the early 1960's. They probably never will be again.
I like and collect US coins and ancients (mostly Roman). They are a great link to the past.
I just hope the mint slows down so collectors do not get burned with all the mint products. That could lead to people dropping out.
Bubbles have started in my opinion. In areas such as key dates.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>
<< <i>
i am expecting more of a slow decline over the next years instead
of a pop. things just do not look pretty over the long term as most
coin collectors and even the majority of dealers are old.
the last show I went to I was the youngest I could see. I am 33.
it is a huge stretch for me to imagine today's state quarter collectors
paying for 1000+ dollar coins down the road.
coin collecting was a big hobby years ago. today it is not among
youth.
i look at stamps to show me coin collecting's future.
i look at card collecting...
i look at comic books...
i look at etc...
it aint pretty. >>
In another thread today you suggest that all modern coins ($100+) derive
their value from plastic. >>
you are misquoting me.. therefore i cannot continue the conversation
you are discussing.
i did not say all. just the example wondercoin used. take a common
every day wheat cent in great condition... get it slabbed by a tpg
like pcgs which is akin to winning the lottery when shooting for a
top pop and now the coin is magically worth "1000" times more.
<< <i>There's more people than ever before buying and selling rare coins. Are there less people buying and selling common circ stuff? Don't know and don't care. I have customers who never bought a coin in their life, yet now buy low to mid 5 figure coins. These are the coins that are being explained to and shared with children, and grandchildren. These are the new entry level coins for thousands of people. The coin business is catering to even more people, not less.
Bubbles have started in my opinion. In areas such as key dates. >>
i do not know a single person, besides online, who has purchased
a coin for more then 100 bucks let alone 5000.
i imagine being a dealer warps your views a bit eh?
heck, i cannot even think of a person right now in the last 10 years
i have talked to that has purchased a collectible for more then 5000
dollars.
hm. scratch that. cars i have. but to most people old cars have natural
values in the 1000s when good looking and great shape. most will
not say that about a coin or a baseball card.
priorities for most people are changing. old core collectors and etc..
never want to admit. they are the last to admit it.
when was the last time you saw a child building a plastic model kit?
oh yea.. that is almost dead! but since i like them i will deny reality.
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
you are misquoting me.. therefore i cannot continue the conversation
you are discussing.
>>
I apologize. I didn't mean to misquote and was just trying to synopsize.
I retract the statements.
Compare that to the 1909-S Indian Cent. The mintage is lower (309,000), and PCGS has certified far fewer of them (1,866). Yet the Price Guide for an AU58 is only $950.
Theoretically, the Indian should sell for much more than the $1,300 + 15% ($1,495) an S-VDB fetches on Heritage, but it doesn't. If you haven't figured it out yet, the reason for that disparity is demand. People have always collected Lincolns, because they circulate.
And that demand should increase, once people discover new designs in their change this year, especially after all the hoopla about Lincoln's 200th birthday.
The S-VDB is not going to get any less popular in 2009.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
<< <i>
<< <i>There's more people than ever before buying and selling rare coins. Are there less people buying and selling common circ stuff? Don't know and don't care. I have customers who never bought a coin in their life, yet now buy low to mid 5 figure coins. These are the coins that are being explained to and shared with children, and grandchildren. These are the new entry level coins for thousands of people. The coin business is catering to even more people, not less.
Bubbles have started in my opinion. In areas such as key dates. >>
i do not know a single person, besides online, who has purchased
a coin for more then 100 bucks let alone 5000.
i imagine being a dealer warps your views a bit eh?
heck, i cannot even think of a person right now in the last 10 years
i have talked to that has purchased a collectible for more then 5000
dollars.
hm. scratch that. cars i have. but to most people old cars have natural
values in the 1000s when good looking and great shape. most will
not say that about a coin or a baseball card.
priorities for most people are changing. old core collectors and etc..
never want to admit. they are the last to admit it.
when was the last time you saw a child building a plastic model kit?
oh yea.. that is almost dead! but since i like them i will deny reality. >>
Warps? Not hardly. I'm happy to have worked hard enough and long enough to not travel in those circles that you are describing.
That's your problem
Then again there are those who are out saying that there's no jobs, and they're losing their houses to foreclosure, etc etc etc etc. I don't personally know any of them ( nor can I identify with the attitude behine the losses ) but apparently they're out there. Edited to add example of that attitude: I had a "handyman doing some work for me, an ex police officer from Minnesota who is in the midst of losing his $350K house here. I asked him if he could do a section of cement squares on the side of the house for garbage cans and things. 18 ft long by roughly 5 feet wide. He said and I quote"I would not do that type of work". Need I say more?
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
As for bubbles, my answer depends on how you define a bubble. If by "bubble" you mean that the coins are overpriced and destined for a correction, bubbles abound. But if your definition of a bubble requires rapid inflation of prices driven largely by speculators, then there are surprisingly few numismatic bubbles.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>Since the 1909-S VDB Lincoln was the first coin mentioned here, consider the mintage (484,000). PCGS has certified 5,328 of them, the PCGS Price Guide is $1,750 in AU-58.
Compare that to the 1909-S Indian Cent. The mintage is lower (309,000), and PCGS has certified far fewer of them (1,866). Yet the Price Guide for an AU58 is only $950.
Theoretically, the Indian should sell for much more than the $1,300 + 15% ($1,495) an S-VDB fetches on Heritage, but it doesn't. If you haven't figured it out yet, the reason for that disparity is demand. People have always collected Lincolns, because they circulate.
>>
So why did the 1909-S VDB, as already mentioned, decline year-on-year for 30 years from 1965?
<< <i>While demographics may lead to ups and downs in the market, the hobby will be fine in the long run. The coins will always be the coins, the history will always be the history, and the infrastructure of the hobby is and will likely remain beyond compare.
As for bubbles, my answer depends on how you define a bubble. If by "bubble" you mean that the coins are overpriced and destined for a correction, bubbles abound. But if your definition of a bubble requires rapid inflation of prices driven largely by speculators, then there are surprisingly few numismatic bubbles. >>
Very nice post. I agree that the hobby will never go away. Everything goes in cycles, and things
that are "forgotten" by one generation can easily be rediscovered by the next.
<< <i>
<< <i>Since the 1909-S VDB Lincoln was the first coin mentioned here, consider the mintage (484,000). PCGS has certified 5,328 of them, the PCGS Price Guide is $1,750 in AU-58.
Compare that to the 1909-S Indian Cent. The mintage is lower (309,000), and PCGS has certified far fewer of them (1,866). Yet the Price Guide for an AU58 is only $950.
Theoretically, the Indian should sell for much more than the $1,300 + 15% ($1,495) an S-VDB fetches on Heritage, but it doesn't. If you haven't figured it out yet, the reason for that disparity is demand. People have always collected Lincolns, because they circulate.
>>
So why did the 1909-S VDB, as already mentioned, decline year-on-year for 30 years from 1965? >>
I don't know, but does it matter in 2009? Since I own examples of both coins, I'm only concerned with the future, not the past.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
<< <i>There's more people than ever before buying and selling rare coins. Are there less people buying and selling common circ stuff? Don't know and don't care. I have customers who never bought a coin in their life, yet now buy low to mid 5 figure coins. These are the coins that are being explained to and shared with children, and grandchildren. These are the new entry level coins for thousands of people. The coin business is catering to even more people, not less. >>
<< <i>Warps? Not hardly. I'm happy to have worked hard enough and long enough to not travel in those circles that you are describing. >>
<< <i>That's your problem I don't know anyone other than myself who has purchased a coin for $100 bucks or less! And believe you me I'm far FAR from being in the category of an RYK or some of my clients who spend hundreds of thousands and millions a year on their collections. I'm equally far away from the other end of the spectrum. Takes time. >>
<< <i>Then again there are those who are out saying that there's no jobs, and they're losing their houses to foreclosure, etc etc etc etc. I don't personally know any of them ( nor can I identify with the attitude behine the losses ) but apparently they're out there. Edited to add example of that attitude: I had a "handyman doing some work for me, an ex police officer from Minnesota who is in the midst of losing his $350K house here. I asked him if he could do a section of cement squares on the side of the house for garbage cans and things. 18 ft long by roughly 5 feet wide. He said and I quote"I would not do that type of work". Need I say more? >>
Beautifully said!!!
Who is John Galt?
Back to the OP's original question, I think better date Morgan dollars may be a bubble area, perhaps already popped or popping. A wholesale dealer friend of mine just acquired a 93S in a VF20 holder for ~$1000 back of bid (and not from a widow or orphan, mind you), and is taking it to Long Beach and hoping to flip it for a couple $100 profit. This is a small amount of data, and maybe just an isolated incident, but this was a coin that I thought would always trade at bid or higher. To see this coin going cheap tells me the whole series could be softening; but that's just my opinion, based on very little data.