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Phillies/Howard arbitration
jdip9
Posts: 1,895 ✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
Is Howard a Boras client? If not, did the Phillies ever try to sign Howard to long term deal after his MVP year? Seems like they chose very poorly in going the arbitration route. He's taking them to the cleaners! I'm only speculating, but they probably could have had him for something like 6 years/$55M after his MVP year - and that might be generous (since Pedroia just got 6/$42M with the same ROY/MVP resume). Instead, he'll probably average $1-2M more during his 3rd-6th years, and then leave for free agency.
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<< <i>Blame the Yankees and Mets for all this high salary crap. Next time ya pay $10 for a beer at the ballpark, give a toast to George Steinbrenner for starting the outrageous prices, and current Yankees and Mets management for perpetuating it. >>
No, blame the idiot fans who keep buying those beers, along with tickets and jerseys & whatever other garbage the MLB is pushing off to pay the fartknockers with these absurd salaries.
LMAO
I guess the Rangers, Dodgers, Cubs, etc etc etc have nothing to do with anything right?
The Phillies are just like any other team they gotta pay up.
Just admit it the Sillies are no better then the yanks!
Steve
<< <i>lol it is always the yanks and the mets fault. What a crock of no nothing baloney stevek.
I guess the Rangers, Dodgers, Cubs, etc etc etc have nothing to do with anything right?
The Phillies are just like any other team they gotta pay up.
Just admit it the Sillies are no better then the yanks!
Steve >>
I said they started it, and they perpetuate it...and you know that so stop acting silly like you don't know. Phillies, Red Sox and many other teams got tired of being like farm clubs for the NY teams and are fighting back, unfortunately at high expense which ultimately the fans pay for if they want to be fans, and also ultimately in this bad economic climate could likely lead to financial trouble for a number of teams.
I guess you're independently wealthy and $10 beers don't bother you? BTW, How them Mets been doing in the playoffs lately with all that high salary mercenary talent?
My OP was hoping to engage discussion about the Phillies decisions involving Howard. A player typically doesn't like having to fight with the team through arbitration to get his dollars. Seems like the Phillies have made the decision that Howard doesn't factor into their long range plans.
The Mets lol yeah I wish they started it.
Get real.
Steve
<< <i>The Mets started what? Get your facts straight before your spew off your crapola.
The Mets lol yeah I wish they started it.
Get real.
Steve >>
Can't you read English? I'll post in Latin next time to you. Or would hieroglyphics be better? I stated Steinbrenner started it...the Mets have perpetuated it.
PS: The Mets are the biggest choke artist team of all time! Ha Ha!
<< <i>It'll be interesting to see if Fenway raises their beer prices this year. In the 8 years I've had tickets, beer has gone up every year at least a quarter. I'd like to think they'd be mindful of the economy (as they were when they didn't raise ticket prices), but we'll see.
My OP was hoping to engage discussion about the Phillies decisions involving Howard. A player typically doesn't like having to fight with the team through arbitration to get his dollars. Seems like the Phillies have made the decision that Howard doesn't factor into their long range plans. >>
Me thinks 14 million ain't a bad offer - the Phillies will do whatever it takes to keep Howard....I'm not the least bit worried about it.
The stinkin' Mets will have to find another team to steal players from.
The Rangers gave AROD 252 MILLION dollars 8 years ago. Payroll was adjusted from there.
The A's gave Zito a bundle the pitchers worked off that salary.
Stop blaming everything on NY.
Oh so 14 million to a guy that hits 250 is good huh? Oh as long as it is YOUR TEAM that does it.
And don't be surprised if he gets 18 million, the amount he is asking for.
The Mets perpetuated nothing.
Gotcha.
Steve
But I guess it is easier to blame NY for all of baseballs percieved ills.
Steve
I agree $14M is GREAT money for a 5th year player, but that isn't the point. The Phillies missed a chance to lock him up for cheaper dollars a couple years ago, and are almost certainly going to lose him to free agency in 2 years. He's not going to forget all the bad things that they've said about him during arbitration hearings.
No you didn't, what you said:
Blame the Yankees and Mets for all this high salary crap. Next time ya pay $10 for a beer at the ballpark, give a toast to George Steinbrenner for starting the outrageous prices, and current Yankees and Mets management for perpetuating it.
Blame the Yanks AND Mets for all this high salary crap. then some whining about the cost of beer, then: The current Yanks AND Mets for perpetuating it.
Maybe it is you that needs a refresher course in basic sentence structure.
Steve
I do agree with you those hearings can be brutal to a players ego.
Steve
The Phillies decided that Ryan Howard was worth it and renewed his contract and now Howard would be getting a $900,000 salary. This move was made after both Phillies and Howard could not come to an agreement on a long term contract.
From the sounds of it, he was interested in signing, but the Phillies didn't bring enough to the table. I promise you whatever dollars Howard was asking for in 2006 pale in comparison to what he is making now in arbitration.
<eyeroll>
The reason I asked is because many guys would rather just play out the first 3 years
take the arbitration route for 2 or 3 years then go Free agent.
Can't blame guys for wanting to get the most they can.
I'm thinking that he (Howard) wanted big dollars back then seeing he was coming off a ROY
and MVP seasons.
Steve
<< <i><<<Me thinks 14 million ain't a bad offer - the Phillies will do whatever it takes to keep Howard....I'm not the least bit worried about it. >>>
I agree $14M is GREAT money for a 5th year player, but that isn't the point. The Phillies missed a chance to lock him up for cheaper dollars a couple years ago, and are almost certainly going to lose him to free agency in 2 years. He's not going to forget all the bad things that they've said about him during arbitration hearings. >>
Well don't forget he was sorta an "old" rookie and in my opinion the Phillies just wanted to make sure he panned out a little bit before throwing too much money at him - good business on the part of the Phillies.
The Phillies are smart about their payroll expenditures unlike the stinkin' Mets who never saw a mercenary free agent they didn't like - quite pathetic really and the Mets choking like pigs the last two seasons exemplifies that. Mets fan don't worry about the Mets choking this season, because the Phillies are going to blow away the NL East. The Mets won't get a chance to choke - Ha! Ha!
To expect Howard to have another year where he hits exceptionally better with men on base, is just not a realistic expectation. Most likely he hits just slightly better with Men on Base, and continues his overall numbers where his AVG, OB% and SLG% alll dropped noticeably!
He will still have plenty of runners on base, so his RBI totals will look good, but they will be good more because of his teammates rather than he...and you can get a guy for a fraction of the price, put him in the same slot in the order, and not suffer too much in the RBI department(because that guy will get oodles of chances too). Then you can put that money into your pitching staff, or for locking up their best player...Chase Utley.
What is the old saying....it is better to trade a guy a year too soon, rather than a year too late? I know they aren't looking to trade him, but that kind of captures the point. I think.
<< <i>The Phillies have already gotten the best they will get from Howard. Starting with his slide last year(which was hidden by having great teammates, and Howard hitting exceptionally well with Men on Base), he will most likely continue his trek towards the Dave Kingman highway.
To expect Howard to have another year where he hits exceptionally better with men on base, is just not a realistic expectation. Most likely he hits just slightly better with Men on Base, and continues his overall numbers where his AVG, OB% and SLG% alll dropped noticeably!
He will still have plenty of runners on base, so his RBI totals will look good, but they will be good more because of his teammates rather than he...and you can get a guy for a fraction of the price, put him in the same slot in the order, and not suffer too much in the RBI department(because that guy will get oodles of chances too). Then you can put that money into your pitching staff, or for locking up their best player...Chase Utley.
What is the old saying....it is better to trade a guy a year too soon, rather than a year too late? I know they aren't looking to trade him, but that kind of captures the point. I think.
I'm sure you realize that a guy like Ryan Howard sells tickets, a lot of tickets...and as long as that is the case, the Phillies are NOT going to lose Ryan Howard to any stinkin' bandit robbery type team like the Mets.
...and Ryan Howard is no Dave Kingman - that is an insult...nobody ever paid to see Dave Kingman play, and hit his useless solo shot HR's in the 9th inning with his team up or down by 10 runs.
He is not Dave Kingman, based on his career to date. His performance last year may be an indicator of Kingman-like years to come.
Once that time comes, the ticket factor will no longer be in play.
have multiple finger-wear, while Kingman was a popular player during the dark time in Mets baseball.
You can't spell DYNASTYR without RYAN!
JS
Kevin,
Isn't it time for flute practice yet?? With all Howard's whiffs, he probably makes almost as much noise as a musical instrument! LOL!!!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Howard is overrated. I believe he is better than Kingman, but not by much...if the Phillies had Kingman at 1B last year they'd have won the WS, anyway..
Kevin,
Isn't it time for flute practice yet?? With all Howard's whiffs, he probably makes almost as much noise as a musical instrument! LOL!!! >>
<<< Howard is overrated. I believe he is better than Kingman, but not by much >>>
I nominate this post for the pathetic post of the month award. Howard wins the MVP in 2006, was in the running for MVP in 2007, and finished 2nd in MVP voting in 2008 and should have won it...and Grote15 is calling Howard overrated?
Now that I've given it another few seconds of thought, I was wrong to nominate Grote15's post for pathetic post of the month award and I'm sorry, because his post should be nominated for pathetic post of the YEAR award.
Howard was the fifth best player on his team last year.
I am simply pointing out some evidence that suggests the future for Howard is going to be more Kingman-like, than 2006-Howard-like.
His best has come and gone. This is a public service for Phillies fans, as if you can brace yourself for it now, the future won't be as miserable and tough to swallow as it will be if you think he will be hitting like he did in his best year.
If he continues to hit .240 with mediocore OB%, and just good SLG%, you cannot count on him to continue hitting .320 with runners in scoring position to still have the RBI you covet. That average will come down to reality.
Now unless he picks up HIS hitting ability, OR unless the Phillies get even more men on base for him, he won't be able to mask his decline with a high RBI total like he did last year.
<< <i>Phillies guys,
Howard was the fifth best player on his team last year.
I am simply pointing out some evidence that suggests the future for Howard is going to be more Kingman-like, than 2006-Howard-like.
His best has come and gone. This is a public service for Phillies fans, as if you can brace yourself for it now, the future won't be as miserable and tough to swallow as it will be if you think he will be hitting like he did in his best year.
If he continues to hit .240 with mediocore OB%, and just good SLG%, you cannot count on him to continue hitting .320 with runners in scoring position to still have the RBI you covet. That average will come down to reality.
Now unless he picks up HIS hitting ability, OR unless the Phillies get even more men on base for him, he won't be able to mask his decline with a high RBI total like he did last year. >>
If I told ya once, I've told ya a hundred times to stop munching on those toadstools that grow in your backyard because they cause hallucinogenic posts.
Here's a repost for ya, "Howard wins the MVP in 2006, was in the running for MVP in 2007, and finished 2nd in MVP voting in 2008 and should have won it" - that doesn't sound like a player who is on "his decline" and that is clear to any person not sniffing glue or smoking banana peels.
<< <i>
If I told ya once, I've told ya a hundred times to stop munching on those toadstools that grow in your backyard because they cause hallucinogenic posts.
Here's a repost for ya, "Howard wins the MVP in 2006, was in the running for MVP in 2007, and finished 2nd in MVP voting in 2008 and should have won it" - that doesn't sound like a player who is on "his decline" and that is clear to any person not sniffing glue or smoking banana peels. >>
I can see why you lost money in gambling.
<< <i>
<< <i>
If I told ya once, I've told ya a hundred times to stop munching on those toadstools that grow in your backyard because they cause hallucinogenic posts.
Here's a repost for ya, "Howard wins the MVP in 2006, was in the running for MVP in 2007, and finished 2nd in MVP voting in 2008 and should have won it" - that doesn't sound like a player who is on "his decline" and that is clear to any person not sniffing glue or smoking banana peels. >>
I can see why you lost money in gambling. >>
And just what is the correlation there?
PS: Just wondering, are Chiquita banana peels the best brand to smoke or do you recommend another brand of banana peel for a better hallucinogenic experience?
You are using blinders, betting with your heart, and are not aware of what evidence to look for and use. When doing that, losing money is the next step.
see how anyone who calls themselves a Phillies fan, can hate Howard with so much passion. Without Howard the Phils don't even make it to the playoffs!
He carried the team when "guys further up your list" shut it down...ie Victorino and Utley. The big man struck fear into opposing pitchers heads making them
forget about the guys who batted around him.
Howard is the real deal and if this seasons stats were an off season, then give me more off seasons!
JS
<< <i>I don't smoke, I prefer to drink to get out of my mind. Anything with loads of alcohol will do the trick.
You are using blinders, betting with your heart, and are not aware of what evidence to look for and use. When doing that, losing money is the next step. >>
<<< Anything with loads of alcohol will do the trick >>>
That's cool - LOL - You know I'm just bustin' chops defending my Phillies.
<< <i>Hoopster, I don't understand all the ill will against the big man, did he refuse to sign your ball and then fart on you before a spring training game? I don't
see how anyone who calls themselves a Phillies fan, can hate Howard with so much passion. Without Howard the Phils don't even make it to the playoffs!
He carried the team when "guys further up your list" shut it down...ie Victorino and Utley. The big man struck fear into opposing pitchers heads making them
forget about the guys who batted around him.
Howard is the real deal and if this seasons stats were an off season, then give me more off seasons!
JS >>
Howard is the real deal - you got that right!
Pets fans are just jealous cause they don't have him and can't steal him. Ha! Ha!
MVP voting is nothing more than a popularity conest in many cases. If that's the only method you're going to use to judge a player's abilities, you're going to fall far short of accuracy in that dept.
Howard is still highly overrated, by the way...
But, hey, I liked Dave Kingman, too, so Ryan Howard is welcome to come on over to the Mets anytime!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>No offense, SteveK, but if I had to choose between Hoopster's and your and Stalin's opinion about a player, the answer is rather obvious...
MVP voting is nothing more than a popularity conest in many cases. If that's the only method you're going to use to judge a player's abilities, you're going to fall far short of accuracy in that dept.
Howard is still highly overrated, by the way...
But, hey, I liked Dave Kingman, too, so Ryan Howard is welcome to come on over to the Mets anytime!
Yea, I "liked" Dave Kingman as well because in a clutch situation against the Phillies, he was basically a guaranteed out.
I looked it up and what I wanna know is how the yell did Dave Kingman ever even finish as high as 11th one year in the MVP voting? He musta paid off some voters to get him placed that high.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
In order to achieve his 140+ RBI last year, he had to hit .320 with RISP, compared to .169 with nobody on. That is what we call an extremely drastic split, one that is nearly impossible to continue.
His career numbers(which include that drastic split of last year) are .282 with RISP, and .266 with nobody on. That type of difference is within the realm of continuability. Though, with time, I suspect that his hitting with RISP will start to shrink and get closer to his nobody on hitting.
But what has happened to Howard is that his overall hitting is trending down. His OPS+ of the last three years is 167, 144, 124.
What is also of concern is his strikeout to walk ratio. The lower the number, the better.
2006 1.67
2007 1.85
2008 2.45
This, coupled with his dropping OPS, hints that the OPS drop isn't due to random fluctuation(which is common in baseball), but due to Howard's lessening command of the strike zone(which is bad for a hitter). It hints that the pitchers are figuring out how to get him out with greater efficiency.
If Ryan replicates last years overall BA, OB%, and SLG%, and if he is given the same amount of Runners On Base to hit with, you can expect a noticeable decline in his RBI total.
There is a possibility he is settling into the OPS+ range of 124, and any drop in Men on Base hitting is going to leave Philly fans wishing for a better hitting(and fielding) first baseman, because they are going to see those artificially inflated RBI totals shrink. God forbid if their top of the order slumps, because RYan will be booed out of town with a drastic reduction in RBI.
There is always the possibility that he reverts to the form of a couple of years ago(maybe a one in 20 chance), but I wouldn't bet anything on it.
Looking at his continued poor Lefty/Righty splits, I can't imagine many managers allowing him to face a RH pitcher in any meaningful late situation either.
Knowing that they signed Ibanez, and will now have Utley, Howard, and Ibanez in the middle of their order, this is set up for Howard to see more at bats vs. LHP. With Ibanez instead of BUrrell, he now makes it easier to keep the lefty in the game to face Howard more often. I would be shocked to see Howard get many meaningful at bats late in the game vs. a Right Handed pitcher. Unless the other manager is stupid, which is quite probable in MLB, after all Dusty Baker is still employed.
Actually, Philly fans better hope Utley play to his usual form,a s he is by far their best player. If that hip is problem, Howard will see even more reduced RBI, and it will be a long summer looking at the Mets backsides.
Ryan is, at best, the fourth best player on his team, much less the NL - Utley, Hamels, Rollins, Lidge - that's why the Phils won
His fielding, OBS, and baserunning are well below average - worst fielding first baseman since Dick Stuart
His ability to carry a team when he is, if not the best, in the top three of hitters in the Major Leagues HIS REAL VALUE
His fan appeal, while streaking, is invaluable in generating fan interest and Phillies marketing
His strikeouts are meaningless as is his MVP voting results - both mean little in runs created
His overall value to the team is very high and worth exactly what they pay him. Besides, with whom are they gonna replace him?
Howard is a solid top level first baseman that any MLB team (except the Cards) would love to have. I would rather have him playing first base than what at least 25 other teams have, but I do not regards him as a great player. I don't think he is anywhere near Kingmanesque either. I would put him in the Cecil Fielder to Boog Powell category.
Just my .02
Just a word to the wise to future gamblers, and people hoping for more magic in 2009. You have seen his best, hope for more of last year, but with less RBI totals and less hype(due to less RBI totals). Well, unless the Phillies before him manage to get on base even more for him.
Nobody has even heard of Adrian Gonzalez, but his las two seasons combined of hitting on the road he went .301 AVG, 42 HR, 134 RBI, and 120 runs. Unfortunately for him, he plays in the worst hitters park in the league. His home stats are.......254 AVG, 24 HR, 85 RBI, and 84 runs.
Hey, Jaxxr, I thought people learned to hit at home?????? Oh, I guess that is only guys who play at Fenway, LOL!
Hype is important. That is what 95% of the fans go by, and 85% of the writers go by when judging players.