The line on NFL games this Sunday
Michigan
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Ravens at Steelers. Steelers by 5 1/2
Eagles at Cardinals. Eagles by 3 1/2
Eagles at Cardinals. Eagles by 3 1/2
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Bosox1976
<< <i>Ravens at Steelers. Steelers by 5 1/2
Eagles at Cardinals. Eagles by 3 1/2 >>
don't know where ya got that Eagles -3 1/2 - a major online book has it at -4 1/2
Saturday morning odds for the Eagles :
sportsbook.com : - 3.5
BM Bookmaker : - 3.5
BETUS : - 4
bodog : - 4
betED : - 4
SuperBook : - 4
Pittsburgh is - 6 on all of them.
"How about a little fire Scarecrow ?"
<< <i>Saturday morning odds for the Eagles :
sportsbook.com : - 3.5
BM Bookmaker : - 3.5
BETUS : - 4
bodog : - 4
betED : - 4
SuperBook : - 4
Pittsburgh is - 6 on all of them. >>
Interesting - Bodog had it at -4 1/2 when I posted. Yes, it is at -4 now. Boopotts might get rich on this game with some huge middling bets.
Brian can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think taking the Cardinals at +4 1/2 and the Eagles at -3 which to me seemed to be a fairly easy call here on predicting this line, would have put the odds in the gamblers favor for a sports bet - a rare situation. I think that the number 3 is the most common winning point spread number in the NFL, so getting 4 as well which has to be a common number as well, would put the odds in the bettors favor, I think.
Of course it's easy to say this after the betting has already taken place. LOL
Philly by 3: +1 Unit
Philly by 4: +2 Units
The odds of these are estimated below:
Philly winning: 62%
Away MOV = 3: 15%
Away MOV = 4: 3%
Thus there's a 9.3% chance Philly wins by 3 and a 1.9% chance Philly wins by 4. Multiply that by the reward and add them and this bet is worth 0.131 Units. The break-even here is that both bets were made at -113 or less.
<< <i>Middling is good here, provided you got low vig on the lines. If someone bet equal amounts on Philly -3 and Zona +4.5, they lose the vig on one of the bets in almost all situations except of course if,
Philly by 3: +1 Unit
Philly by 4: +2 Units
The odds of these are estimated below:
Philly winning: 62%
Away MOV = 3: 15%
Away MOV = 4: 3%
Thus there's a 9.3% chance Philly wins by 3 and a 1.9% chance Philly wins by 4. Multiply that by the reward and add them and this bet is worth 0.131 Units. The break-even here is that both bets were made at -113 or less. >>
Brian - So I think what you're saying is if the bettor makes the bet on both teams at the "standard" 10% vig, the odds are slightly in the bettor's favor?
<< <i>
<< <i>Saturday morning odds for the Eagles :
sportsbook.com : - 3.5
BM Bookmaker : - 3.5
BETUS : - 4
bodog : - 4
betED : - 4
SuperBook : - 4
Pittsburgh is - 6 on all of them. >>
Interesting - Bodog had it at -4 1/2 when I posted. Yes, it is at -4 now. Boopotts might get rich on this game with some huge middling bets.
Brian can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think taking the Cardinals at +4 1/2 and the Eagles at -3 which to me seemed to be a fairly easy call here on predicting this line, would have put the odds in the gamblers favor for a sports bet - a rare situation. I think that the number 3 is the most common winning point spread number in the NFL, so getting 4 as well which has to be a common number as well, would put the odds in the bettors favor, I think.
Of course it's easy to say this after the betting has already taken place. LOL >>
interesting Steve- could you elaborate? how is taking both teams in the bettor's advantage here?
John
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Saturday morning odds for the Eagles :
sportsbook.com : - 3.5
BM Bookmaker : - 3.5
BETUS : - 4
bodog : - 4
betED : - 4
SuperBook : - 4
Pittsburgh is - 6 on all of them. >>
Interesting - Bodog had it at -4 1/2 when I posted. Yes, it is at -4 now. Boopotts might get rich on this game with some huge middling bets.
Brian can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think taking the Cardinals at +4 1/2 and the Eagles at -3 which to me seemed to be a fairly easy call here on predicting this line, would have put the odds in the gamblers favor for a sports bet - a rare situation. I think that the number 3 is the most common winning point spread number in the NFL, so getting 4 as well which has to be a common number as well, would put the odds in the bettors favor, I think.
Of course it's easy to say this after the betting has already taken place. LOL >>
interesting Steve- could you elaborate? how is taking both teams in the bettor's advantage here?
John >>
It's still gambling - if the Eagles don't win by exactly 3 or 4 points, then you lose money on the bet. However in the long run if the odds are in your favor then you would make money on a series of these type of bets. The problem though is you'd have to be good enough to properly anticipate line changes, otherwise you're a loser, and anticipating those line changes isn't easy to do. Look how Brian, who is one of the smartest guys I know, and I would consider him an expert on football wagering, better by far than any other public sports forecaster out there in the media, even he anticipated the line move incorrectly and he posted in another thread that he thought the line would move to Eagles -3. So if Brian tried middling this bet, he would be looking at a guaranteed loser right now, unless the line does move to Eagles -3...and unless it's announced that McNabb and Westbrook aren't going to play, that line move ain't gonna happen.
All you need to understand about sports betting is illustrated in Boopotts posts about "variance" in another thread. Although I'm not sure Boopotts meant his posts to include sports betting, his points are in tune to sports betting, because the fact is a bettor has no control over the outcome of a game, and the random events which occur during sporting events, makes it impossible to make money in the long run against the bookies juice. All the available information in say a football point spread is already digested in the odds, and if anyone thinks they are clever enough to outsmart the bookies against 10% juice, then I would conclude they are likely an addicted gambler. Here's the big problem with sports betting - you could even be slightly smarter than the books, and still lose money in the long run because of the juice - sports betting with bookies is a sucker's game...plain and simple.
Trying to be "much smarter" that the bookies to overcome that 10% juice in the long run considering the random events which occur in sports, sorry to say only an addicted gambler could believe they could do it. I think a good example of this is Stu Ungar who may have been the best card player of all time, a genius at the game of gin rummy, and a superb poker player - Unraked poker is a game of pure skill in which through betting a player can alter the outcome of the randomness of the dealt cards to their monetary advantage, however Ungar tried to outsmart the bookies, and couldn't do it, and didn't even come close to doing it and he went dead broke, despite making a small fortune playing poker.
Heads up against another sports bettor with no juice involved, the smarter sports bettor could make money that way. For example if you can find sports bettors and have them bet you even money while your team is a some point favorite to win, then in the long run you would be a money winner. Sports bettors can make money off of other sports bettors, but trying to make money against the bookies...it didn't happen for Stu Ungar and it ain't gonna happen for anyone else.
The Ravens will lose.
There will be no birds at the end.
Watch and learn
All the late money has been on the Cards. The line at pinnacle is -3.5, but at +112 so one can buy the Eagles to -3 for -113.... not so shockingly, the break-even threshold I estimated above.
<< <i>I'm teasing both dogs. >>
FWIW that's a terrible tease. Teasing when you can capture both the three and the seven is about break-even if the two team teaser is -110, and a profitable bet if the teaser is +100. But all other teasers should be avoided (so, if a team is +2, and you can tease them to +8, that's a good tease. But teasing a team from +3.5 to +9.5 is a bad tease, since you aren't gaining the 3 in this case). NOTE: This is only true for the NFL. To my knowledge there are no good spots to tease in the NCAA.
<< <i>Steve,
All the late money has been on the Cards. The line at pinnacle is -3.5, but at +112 so one can buy the Eagles to -3 for -113.... not so shockingly, the break-even threshold I estimated above. >>
Outstanding call as usual from you Brian.
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm teasing both dogs. >>
FWIW that's a terrible tease. Teasing when you can capture both the three and the seven is about break-even if the two team teaser is -110, and a profitable bet if the teaser is +100. But all other teasers should be avoided (so, if a team is +2, and you can tease them to +8, that's a good tease. But teasing a team from +3.5 to +9.5 is a bad tease, since you aren't gaining the 3 in this case). NOTE: This is only true for the NFL. To my knowledge there are no good spots to tease in the NCAA. >>
Yes, teaser bets are a bookie's delight.